Fri, Nov 16 2018, 9:24 AM
Because November 1st was a Thursday, we'll be treated to the earliest possible iteration of Thanksgiving. It's next week, by the way! Why are we talki...
Thu, Nov 15 2018, 6:00 PM
Remember the middle of 2016 when rates managed to make it all the way back in line with all-time lows despite having almost no justification in terms ...
Thu, Nov 15 2018, 5:11 PM
Mortgage rates hit their lowest levels of the month today! Sure, that's only 10 business days for the mortgage world, but we'll take every little vict...
Thu, Nov 15 2018, 9:30 AM
Ah Brexit... You thought you'd heard the last of it back in 2016? No such luck. Actually, it is a bit lucky to be hearing about it, at least as far...
Wed, Nov 14 2018, 4:58 PM
The narrative has grown (remained?) the same for bonds lately. If stocks are losing ground, then it's time to rally . If stocks are stabilizing or ...
Wed, Nov 14 2018, 4:18 PM
Mortgage rates began the day in roughly unchanged territory. Some lenders were microscopically stronger or weaker compared to yesterday, but not enoug...
Wed, Nov 14 2018, 8:28 AM
Bonds are actively trying to decide who they are and what they want to do with their lives. Will they be barometers of economic growth and inflation?...
Tue, Nov 13 2018, 4:51 PM
CPI (the Consumer Price Index) has been the most relevant economic report on the horizon since the balmy NFP report from 2 weeks back. Reason being...
Tue, Nov 13 2018, 4:25 PM
Mortgage rates improved by what could only be described as a token amount today. In other words, we're not talking about any major changes. In fact, m...
Tue, Nov 13 2018, 9:23 AM
As of last Thursday, it didn't look like traders were much interested in hearing arguments in favor of bonds. Then, an unexpectedly healthy little ...
Fri, Nov 9 2018, 6:26 PM
Interesting day today... It began with a decent overnight rally, mostly led by European bond markets. The first big speed-bump came at 8:30am with ...
Fri, Nov 9 2018, 5:45 PM
Mortgage rates were mixed today, depending on the lender. Most lenders began the day in slightly worse shape compared to yesterday. Bond markets impro...
Fri, Nov 9 2018, 9:20 AM
Between the mid-term elections earlier this week and the simple tradeflow move following the Fed yesterday, bond markets have had their chance to make...
Thu, Nov 8 2018, 5:02 PM
It's hard not to give the Fed a wide berth as the biggest potential market mover on any given Fed day. Today was a Fed day! We talked about the ou...
Thu, Nov 8 2018, 4:36 PM
Mortgage rates moved back up today, leaving them right in line with the highest levels of the week. These also happen to be the highest levels since e...
Thu, Nov 8 2018, 2:13 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August September indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen an...
Thu, Nov 8 2018, 9:11 AM
I'm going to talk about the potential for a friendly bounce in bonds today. I want to be clear right up front that I'm presenting this as one of two ...
Wed, Nov 7 2018, 5:05 PM
Those who expected the election to matter to bond markets got their way overnight. Those who expected elections to be inconsequential got their way...
Wed, Nov 7 2018, 4:52 PM
Mortgage rates were slightly lower today. Unfortunately, that may not be the case by tomorrow morning. Underlying bond markets (which dictate rates) l...
Wed, Nov 7 2018, 9:05 AM
Whether you thought the election would or would not matter for the bond market, you were right! At times, it mattered quite a bit in the overnight ...
Tue, Nov 6 2018, 5:37 PM
While we can point to tonight's election results on the calendar, and imagine that they'll have an impact on financial markets, stocks and bonds sim...
Tue, Nov 6 2018, 5:03 PM
Mortgage rates didn't move much today. A few lenders were microscopically stronger or weaker, and the average lender was perfectly unchanged. That's f...
Tue, Nov 6 2018, 8:52 AM
Justified or not, midterm elections are the market mover du jour. Midterm elections happen today, so it's fair to wonder if they will be a market mov...
Mon, Nov 5 2018, 5:19 PM
Today had the look and feel of a summertime Monday--the first we've seen since--well...summertime! Volume was much lighter than it has been in week...
Mon, Nov 5 2018, 4:02 PM
Mortgage rates continued pushing up to new 7-year highs today, even if only by a small margin. This is notable because the underlying bond market (the...
Mon, Nov 5 2018, 8:58 AM
Bonds had a rough week last week, more than fully erasing the rally they enjoyed as stocks sold-off in the previous week. Today's first chart shows t...
Fri, Nov 2 2018, 7:29 PM
Today, and indeed the week in general was fairly straightforward as far as bond markets were concerned. Today brought a fairly well anticipated jobs ...
Fri, Nov 2 2018, 6:25 PM
Mortgage rates had a bad week and an especially bad day following a much stronger-than-expected jobs report. The Employment Situation (the most import...
Fri, Nov 2 2018, 8:26 AM
This morning brings the often-important jobs report. Traditionally, the key component has been nonfarm payrolls (NFP), which is just a tally of new j...
Thu, Nov 1 2018, 4:54 PM
Today ended up being somewhat triumphant for bonds. It didn't begin that way, however. Yields were higher overnight and moved up just a bit more in ...
Thu, Nov 1 2018, 4:12 PM
It's Thursday! That means it's time, once again, to set the record straight on today's actual mortgage rates as opposed to those suggested by almost a...
Thu, Nov 1 2018, 8:37 AM
Bonds have either trying to position themselves in a relatively defensive, pessimistic stance heading into upcoming key events, or their staging on ...
Wed, Oct 31 2018, 4:13 PM
Bonds ended the day in weaker territory with 10yr yields rising roughly 3bps and Fannie 4.0 MBS losing nearly a quarter of a point.
Much like yester...
Wed, Oct 31 2018, 3:29 PM
Mortgage rates were higher by a fairly small margin once again today. Interest rates in general (which are determined by the bond market) have been ta...
Wed, Oct 31 2018, 9:18 AM
The title of this commentary is not a Halloween pun . I don't do Halloween puns anymore. No, there is some legitimate cause for concern--even a bit...
Tue, Oct 30 2018, 4:04 PM
If there's a theme in the bond market over the past 2 days, it's that we've broken away from the previously fairly rigid correlation with stocks. Tha...
Tue, Oct 30 2018, 3:05 PM
Mortgage rates were moderately higher today as underlying bond markets continued backing away from their strongest levels in more than 3 weeks (strong...
Tue, Oct 30 2018, 8:45 AM
With bonds being flat to slightly weaker yesterday and now noticeably weaker overnight, we may be looking at our first real resistance bounce (aka "fl...
Mon, Oct 29 2018, 5:00 PM
The bond market has seen one too many "stay thirsty" memes. For example, "I don't always rally for more than a few days in a rising rate environmen...
Mon, Oct 29 2018, 4:22 PM
Mortgage rates didn't move today, despite a fair amount of underlying market volatility. Rates are able to weather the sorts of storms you hear about ...
Mon, Oct 29 2018, 10:04 AM
Core global bond markets--led by German Bunds and US Treasuries--have been trending lower fairly reliably. For European bonds, that rally has occupie...
Fri, Oct 26 2018, 5:42 PM
Interest rates that have generally been rising for a any period of time can catch a break for many reasons. Sometimes it's Italian political drama ...
Fri, Oct 26 2018, 2:08 PM
Mortgage rates fell decisively today--at least in the context of the recent range--thanks primarily to heavy losses in the stock market. Stocks are fa...
Fri, Oct 26 2018, 8:31 AM
Everything continues to be fairly unidimensional for bonds this week with the dimension in question being that of the equities market. In terms of re...
Thu, Oct 25 2018, 5:32 PM
The best way to look at today is as a more sober attempt to hold the lowest yields in more than 3 weeks . The only day that's ended any better for...
Thu, Oct 25 2018, 4:27 PM
Mortgage rates were unchanged yet again , making this the third day in a row at essentially the same levels. Strikingly, underlying market movement wa...
Thu, Oct 25 2018, 9:07 AM
With slightly weaker levels overnight, the rest of the day becomes a fight to maintain the gains seen so far this week. The easiest and most basic ob...
Wed, Oct 24 2018, 4:56 PM
Yesterday was ' neat ' for a while--at least in the morning hours when massive stock losses helped bonds achieve their best levels in weeks. Then sto...
Wed, Oct 24 2018, 4:22 PM
Mortgage rates were roughly unchanged today. That's an appalling reality considering the movement in underlying bond markets. Bonds--specifically, mor...
Wed, Oct 24 2018, 8:49 AM
For nearly a week, 10yr Treasury yields had been treating 3.18% as a floor (3.178% was the lowest close over the past 4 days. That arguably changed ...
