Tue, Oct 23 2018, 5:49 PM
What a frustrating day! Yes, it's true that bonds ended up in positive territory at the close, but it would have almost been better to endure a modes...
Tue, Oct 23 2018, 5:05 PM
Mortgage rates didn't move much for the second day this week. Unlike yesterday, there was a relatively massive amount of volatility in underlying fina...
Tue, Oct 23 2018, 4:56 PM
Duration is a key variable in deciding value to bond investors investors. In fact, many investors have a duration target for their portfolio. Duratio...
Tue, Oct 23 2018, 9:17 AM
Yesterday was boring and uneventful. Bonds seemed to be trying everything in their power to remain range-bound and avoid breaking out of the consol...
Mon, Oct 22 2018, 5:26 PM
As of October 16th, we'd been tracking the most recent consolidation in bond yields (and stocks for that matter) waiting for a breakout to suggest the...
Mon, Oct 22 2018, 4:52 PM
Mortgage rates didn't move much today. Lenders who made changes to Friday's rate sheets generally did so toward slightly higher rates. Actually, it wo...
Mon, Oct 22 2018, 8:47 AM
The basic candlestick or bar chart that the average bond analyst uses to track 10yr Treasury yields is doing a good job of capturing the current oppos...
Fri, Oct 19 2018, 8:02 PM
Bonds were stuck between a rock and a hard place today. Actually they were stuck between stocks and a European place. Stocks made a case for a bond ...
Fri, Oct 19 2018, 3:25 PM
Mortgage rates failed to extend yesterday's modest improvement, moving modestly higher by the end of the day. This takes the average lender very close...
Fri, Oct 19 2018, 8:54 AM
We've talked a bit (in this commentary and in the live chat on MBS Live ) about the similarities between the October sell-off and one seen in April/M...
Thu, Oct 18 2018, 5:04 PM
Bond markets began the day almost perfectly unchanged relative to yesterday's latest levels. That means the nasty little afternoon selling spree was ...
Thu, Oct 18 2018, 4:17 PM
Mortgage rates recovered most of yesterday's losses today, following turmoil in European financial markets. What does Europe have to do with rates in ...
Thu, Oct 18 2018, 9:44 AM
What is a pivot point? In our primer on the topic, I talk mostly about levels that have repeatedly offered resistance or support to bond yields, but ...
Wed, Oct 17 2018, 6:10 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher at a quicker pace today, following the release of the Minutes from the most recent Fed meeting. But correlation isn't nece...
Wed, Oct 17 2018, 5:06 PM
Hindsight really is 20/20, and foresight wasn't too bad either. Either way, the picture is becoming clearer as bond yields move back toward recent hi...
Wed, Oct 17 2018, 9:57 AM
There are only so many ways to say that bonds are range-bound and waiting for the motivation to break that range. Could it be the Fed Minutes today...
Tue, Oct 16 2018, 4:30 PM
The S&P recovered roughly half of its losses from last week today, decisively breaking out of the consolidation pattern that had been in place throu...
Tue, Oct 16 2018, 4:11 PM
Mortgage rates didn't move much today. Some lenders were perfectly unchanged, but the average lender was just slightly higher. That's at odds with und...
Tue, Oct 16 2018, 8:40 AM
Waiting... That's all anyone has been doing since last Thursday in financial markets. One day prior, stocks jumped off a cliff and bond yields raced ...
Mon, Oct 15 2018, 5:32 PM
This morning's Retail Sales report was arguably the biggest-ticket of the week in terms of economic data. It speaks to the ongoing level of uncerta...
Mon, Oct 15 2018, 4:43 PM
Mortgage rates were sideways to slightly higher today, prolonging a 3-day trend of exceptionally light volatility. The 5 days before that (beginning o...
Mon, Oct 15 2018, 9:04 AM
Before last week's stock rout, bonds were stuck in a rut. For four straight sessions, they hit the highest intraday yields since 2011. Even after ...
Fri, Oct 12 2018, 7:07 PM
Referring to the week of bond trading as " crazy " is a bit of a stretch. If we bring stocks into the mix, or if we go back to last Wednesday, it's b...
Fri, Oct 12 2018, 6:41 PM
Mortgage rates held relatively steady today, finally leveling off after two solid days of improvement driven by the week's big stock market sell-off. ...
Fri, Oct 12 2018, 9:59 AM
Is there potential for today to turn into a "black Friday" with catastrophic stock losses that usher in the most amazing bond rally we've seen in year...
Thu, Oct 11 2018, 6:16 PM
Bonds rallied today, eventually. Most of the session was fairly flat with the afternoon bringing most of the rally thanks to another sell-off in st...
Thu, Oct 11 2018, 5:08 PM
Mortgage rates fell today as the stock market sell-off remained in focus. Stocks and rates certainly don't have a linear and predictable relationship,...
Thu, Oct 11 2018, 9:25 AM
Anything more than 20 points is a big day of selling in terms of the S&P, but that's a small enough number to be relatively common, periodically. Fro...
Wed, Oct 10 2018, 6:35 PM
Remember last Wednesday? Rather forget it? Yeah, me too.
That was the day that bond yields spiked last week. The size and speed of the move was o...
Wed, Oct 10 2018, 5:58 PM
Mortgage rates are based on mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which are essentially bonds. Conventional wisdom holds that stocks and bonds supplement ...
Wed, Oct 10 2018, 9:36 AM
One of the most important themes I've tried to communicate over the past 2 weeks is that the bond market is in the middle of redefining or repricing...
Tue, Oct 9 2018, 5:12 PM
Today was a freebie for bond markets (and stocks to some extent). In the grand scheme of things, no one will look back at today and conclude anythi...
Tue, Oct 9 2018, 4:32 PM
Mortgage rates recovered a small portion of their recent losses today, but the average loan applicant might not even notice. The 2 key ingredients of ...
Tue, Oct 9 2018, 9:06 AM
2009-2013 was an unprecedented time for the US bond market. It benefited not only from the initial blast of the Great Recession and the sluggish re...
Fri, Oct 5 2018, 8:48 PM
The jobs report may have missed the mark in terms of payrolls, but average hourly earnings put in its 4th straight month holding 2.8% (y/y) or high...
Fri, Oct 5 2018, 3:21 PM
Mortgage rates moved back over the 5% threshold, on average, for the first time since early 2011 today following mixed data on the jobs market. Why wo...
Fri, Oct 5 2018, 8:30 AM
At this point, there's nothing left to be said or done in preparation for today's NFP data. Bonds stand on the edge of the most recent abyss. This t...
Thu, Oct 4 2018, 4:48 PM
If you're looking for today's recap, check out the Huddle. Or just know that we sold-off a bit more and then settled sideways, fairly close to yester...
Thu, Oct 4 2018, 3:44 PM
If you don't happen to make it past this first sentence, just know that anyone telling you rates are much higher today is NOT lying to you. Anyone tel...
Thu, Oct 4 2018, 9:30 AM
If you didn't catch it, and want to get caught up with yesterday's big move, this tweet has several links that should bring you thoroughly up to speed...
Wed, Oct 3 2018, 6:20 PM
In terms of outright movement toward higher rates, you'd have to go back to the days following the election in November 2016 to find anything worse ...
Wed, Oct 3 2018, 4:43 PM
Mortgage rates skyrocketed today, in relative terms. It was the single worst day in nearly 2 years, and among only a few days where effective rates mo...
Wed, Oct 3 2018, 8:23 AM
Zen practitioners are an odd lot. One of their hallmark koans--the one about whether or not a tree falling in the woods makes a sound--is nonsense. ...
Tue, Oct 2 2018, 4:21 PM
Bonds had a couple options to choose from today when it came to potential market movers. As far as known quantities, we knew there would be a speech ...
Tue, Oct 2 2018, 3:46 PM
Mortgage rates fell modestly today, and thus managed to avoid heading any closer to the 7-year highs just overhead. Underlying bond markets benefited ...
Tue, Oct 2 2018, 8:37 AM
So there's this sideways trading range, and we're waiting for bonds to break out. The end...
Seriously though! It's really that simple . We'd b...
Mon, Oct 1 2018, 5:14 PM
After slogging up toward (but not over) long-term highs 2 weeks ago, 10yr yields began a waiting game that looked like it would take a cue from last W...
Mon, Oct 1 2018, 4:37 PM
After hitting the lowest levels in exactly 2 weeks on Friday, mortgage rates bounced back up toward their recent highs today. This risk was already ta...
Mon, Oct 1 2018, 9:13 AM
Believe it or not, any given month stands a better than average chance to convey some sort of theme for bond trading. In other words, there tends to ...
Fri, Sep 28 2018, 5:00 PM
Today brought rather pervasive pressure on longer-term rates and mortgages. It wasn't a significant amount of selling, but it was fairly steady thr...
