Fri, Aug 10 2018, 5:25 PM
Tired of hearing about Turkey yet? This is what happens when fairly quiet markets are interrupted by a thunderous roar from an unexpected place. News...
Fri, Aug 10 2018, 4:47 PM
Mortgage rates , and indeed most interest rates, are tied to movement in the bond market. In turn, bonds tend to benefit when big, scary stuff is shak...
Fri, Aug 10 2018, 10:08 AM
Turkey (the country, not the lunch meat) is the 17th biggest economy in the world in terms of GDP. That's roughly 20% bigger than the next closest co...
Thu, Aug 9 2018, 4:40 PM
Have you heard the one about the Turkish debt crisis? Things are pretty bad for Turkey and the currency is indeed in freefall, but until the charts d...
Thu, Aug 9 2018, 3:58 PM
Mortgage rates finally did what they were supposed to do today. Specifically, they fell in response to bond market improvement. That's the way it shou...
Thu, Aug 9 2018, 9:42 AM
In the short-term (past few weeks), the trend has not been our friend. After breaking above a narrow, sideways range, yields had been pushing higher ...
Wed, Aug 8 2018, 6:09 PM
This week continued in the fine tradition of of ultra-light summertime volume and liquidity, but today's contribution was a bit more worthwhile than t...
Wed, Aug 8 2018, 4:57 PM
Mortgage rates were modestly higher today. Much like yesterday, there's a catch! Yesterday's catch was that underlying bond markets had weakened enoug...
Wed, Aug 8 2018, 9:50 AM
After spending most of July in a narrow, sideways trend, bonds broke higher in yield and looked like they would begin a classic range-breakout sell-of...
Tue, Aug 7 2018, 3:54 PM
Bonds enjoyed a nice little winning streak beginning last Thursday. As of yesterday, it had carried 10yr Treasury yields below the important 2.95% te...
Tue, Aug 7 2018, 3:32 PM
Mortgage rates were roughly unchanged today. That would make this the 4th day in a row without any move higher in rates, and it would leave us at the ...
Tue, Aug 7 2018, 9:53 AM
I received an interesting question yesterday as to whether or not there was any significance in the fact that 25, 50, and 100 day moving averages are ...
Mon, Aug 6 2018, 5:22 PM
What do I mean when I say 'serendipitous' market movement? In general, this is just another way to say "that's the way the ball bounced, cookie crumbl...
Mon, Aug 6 2018, 4:50 PM
Mortgage rates were slightly lower for the 3rd straight business day, but not for any particular reason. Because of the relatively narrow range, rates...
Mon, Aug 6 2018, 9:34 AM
In terms of scheduled data and events, this week is much lighter than last. It will also be more susceptible to the effects of light liquidity as mar...
Fri, Aug 3 2018, 7:13 PM
Bond markets began the day in roughly unchanged territory as they geared up to digest any curveballs from the payrolls data. NFP came in weaker than ...
Fri, Aug 3 2018, 2:12 PM
Mortgage rates fell again today after the jobs report showed slower payroll growth in July and persistently flat wage growth. On average, this is the ...
Fri, Aug 3 2018, 8:35 AM
Today brings the sometimes super important nonfarm payrolls data. On average, no other piece of economic data has had as much of an impact on bonds o...
Thu, Aug 2 2018, 4:32 PM
Right at 9:30am this morning, both stocks and bond yields began moving higher . A modest overnight rally in Treasuries quickly came under fire and f...
Thu, Aug 2 2018, 3:55 PM
Mortgage rates fell by a modest amount today. It was fairly inconsequential in the bigger picture, but could save some prospective borrowers a few dol...
Thu, Aug 2 2018, 9:32 AM
While recent bond market trends haven't been fun for originators, they've at least been more interesting from a market-watching standpoint. Markets t...
Wed, Aug 1 2018, 4:51 PM
It's beginning to look and sound a lot like the Springtime when bond analysts were making their calls for the year's highest 10yr yields. Guesses ran...
Wed, Aug 1 2018, 4:21 PM
Mortgage rates were slightly higher today, but not because of the Fed. Today brought a Fed policy announcement which can be quite a big deal for rates...
Wed, Aug 1 2018, 2:16 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May June indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that...
Wed, Aug 1 2018, 8:19 AM
Japanese bond traders began selling right at the start of the overnight session. There wasn't a big, new monetary policy revelation, though the move ...
Tue, Jul 31 2018, 5:36 PM
Today ended up being all about bond markets reacting positively to last night's Bank of Japan (BOJ) announcement. In a nutshell, they just did one ...
Tue, Jul 31 2018, 5:08 PM
Mortgage rates fell modestly today, bringing them back in line with last Friday's levels. Most of the inspiration for the improvement came from overni...
Tue, Jul 31 2018, 9:48 AM
Over the past 2 weeks, there has been quite a lot of speculation on the effects of Japanese monetary policy communications on US Treasuries. I've m...
Mon, Jul 30 2018, 6:03 PM
For a week with so much on the calendar and so much at stake, today got things off to a fairly slow start. That's not entirely surprising, given th...
Mon, Jul 30 2018, 4:48 PM
Mortgage rates edged higher today, keeping alive a trend toward higher rates that began just over a week ago. While the overall amount of ground cover...
Mon, Jul 30 2018, 9:54 AM
This week is rare in terms of the combination of economic data, events, and other relevant goings-on. If someone asked me to rattle off a few of the ...
Fri, Jul 27 2018, 7:28 PM
The consensus for today's GDP reading among forecasters was for a big increase to 4.1% or 4.2% depending on who does your data aggregation. Either wa...
Fri, Jul 27 2018, 6:56 PM
Mortgage rates were unchanged today, making for an anticlimactic end to a week that saw the sharpest rise in months. The lack of movement was all the ...
Fri, Jul 27 2018, 9:49 AM
GDP is already out this morning and it it's left bonds in slightly stronger territory. With these gains, the longer-term chart looks like 10s might ...
Thu, Jul 26 2018, 6:33 PM
Bonds were paralyzed during the overnight session--both in terms of outright trading levels and the yield curve. It could have been the ECB announc...
Thu, Jul 26 2018, 8:30 AM
I thought about making the headline something that pertained specifically to today's events. "Draghi, Durables, and Week's Last Treasury Auction" wou...
Wed, Jul 25 2018, 5:24 PM
Bonds began the day in modestly stronger territory and seemed content to hand onto those gains indefinitely. Up until the last 90 minutes of tradin...
Wed, Jul 25 2018, 4:57 PM
Mortgage rates began the day in a fairly hopeful way. Underlying bond markets were just slightly stronger and a few lenders offered modest improvement...
Wed, Jul 25 2018, 9:45 AM
Yesterday brought an early interruption to the range breakout that began late last week. Such bounces merit caution as they often simply act as a sh...
Tue, Jul 24 2018, 6:15 PM
Today was one of those eerily calm days that we occasionally see plopped right where we'd expect to see something more exciting. And in a way, that i...
Tue, Jul 24 2018, 5:26 PM
Mortgage rates rose again today, even though underlying bond markets managed to indicate modest improvements. There are two reasons rates ignored thos...
Tue, Jul 24 2018, 9:18 AM
In putting together today's chart, I found my fingers involuntarily typing the phrase "post-range-bound momentum spike." It made perfect sense in m...
Mon, Jul 23 2018, 4:30 PM
Super narrow consolidation patterns in bonds are always super boring until they're not. It looked like things may have been getting exciting as ear...
Mon, Jul 23 2018, 3:53 PM
Mortgage rates rose today at the quickest pace in months, ultimately hitting the highest levels since June 25th for the average lender. While neither ...
Mon, Jul 23 2018, 9:18 AM
Not to be confused with a band on the run, bonds find themselves in something of a similar predicament to the namesake of McCartney's post-Beatles sin...
Fri, Jul 20 2018, 6:45 PM
Undoubtedly, yesterday's bond trading sent a clear message that a technical ceiling near 2.88% was met with strong defense from traders who bought b...
Fri, Jul 20 2018, 6:27 PM
Mortgage rates improved today but it was largely a byproduct of yesterday's market movement that didn't make it onto lenders' rate sheets at the time....
Fri, Jul 20 2018, 9:27 AM
10yr yields attempted to break above their prevailing range yesterday. As we discussed in the Day Ahead, it takes more than just an intraday move abo...
Thu, Jul 19 2018, 4:02 PM
If you are an MBS Live member, today's recap has already been written in this update and in The Huddle. Non-MBS Live members can get a pretty solid i...
Thu, Jul 19 2018, 2:53 PM
Mortgage rates had a scare today, as they began the day at their highest levels of the month (depending on the lender) only to fall back in line with ...
