Wed, May 1 2019, 5:02 PM
The overnight session was very quiet for bonds with most major markets closed for various holidays. The first meaningful movement followed the ISM Ma...
Wed, May 1 2019, 2:02 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January March indicates that the labor market remains strong but and that g...
Wed, May 1 2019, 9:04 AM
Although the 10am ISM Manufacturing Report can definitely have an impact on bonds today, The 2pm FED Announcement at 2:30pm press conference is th...
Tue, Apr 30 2019, 5:49 PM
Open up MBS Live today and you'll be greeted with plenty of reassuring green numbers and positive reprice notifications. Unfortunately, those repri...
Tue, Apr 30 2019, 11:03 AM
The yield curve--technically a reference to the full spectrum of Treasury yields versus duration/maturities (i.e. 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, 30 years), but often...
Mon, Apr 29 2019, 5:58 PM
Friday was pretty great for bond markets. It was a solid day of gains at the end of a week where we'd already had two other solid days of gains. A...
Mon, Apr 29 2019, 9:55 AM
This is a very big weak in terms of economic data and its relationship with bond market trading levels. In a nutshell, yields dropped sharply into a ...
Fri, Apr 26 2019, 11:44 AM
GDP was hotly anticipated this week and rightfully so. The trading reaction has been the week's most volatile and has carried the most volume. Parad...
Thu, Apr 25 2019, 5:05 PM
The bond market took a pass today as traders generally let supply considerations and positioning rule the day. Supply considerations came courtesy of...
Thu, Apr 25 2019, 10:35 AM
Here's a quick recap of the past year or so. Bond yields were near long-term highs in the first part of 2018 following the passage of the tax bill ...
Wed, Apr 24 2019, 5:15 PM
Here come those "global growth concerns" again! It's nothing too huge or scandalous, but today's scorecard offered several anecdotes that fueled a do...
Wed, Apr 24 2019, 9:19 AM
We can go years at a time without so much as a mention of Australia--at least not as it relates to the global economy. But now for the 2nd time in as...
Tue, Apr 23 2019, 4:13 PM
With each passing day this week, we're reminded that the most important events are yet to come. In fact, we may well be looking at only one significa...
Tue, Apr 23 2019, 9:41 AM
Oil is one of the most fundamental economic inputs when it comes to determining costs and thus inflation. Inflation is one of the most fundamental in...
Mon, Apr 22 2019, 5:43 PM
There's age old market wisdom that loosely suggests any given move should be taken more seriously if there's a lot of volume behind it. Deductively, ...
Mon, Apr 22 2019, 9:48 AM
Are we or are we not headed toward a global economic contraction in mid-to-late 2019? Or are such things on hold for another year or two? Inquiring ...
Thu, Apr 18 2019, 2:31 PM
Global economic data is big business for the bond market these days. With no end in sight to the domestic economic expansion (note: 1.6% vs 0.9% f'ca...
Thu, Apr 18 2019, 10:10 AM
Despite the presence of a big economic report like Retail Sales (which came out much higher than expected) or the unique event risk presented by the B...
Wed, Apr 17 2019, 5:06 PM
As feared, bonds were gearing up for the raft of big-ticket economic data in China overnight. On balance, that data was quite a bit better than expec...
Wed, Apr 17 2019, 9:06 AM
Over the years, there have been more times than I can count where the financial media has mistakenly assigned some significance to news or events in C...
Tue, Apr 16 2019, 5:11 PM
Rates were flat to start the overnight session and didn't bat an eyelash at initial strength in equities markets during Asia-only trading hours. Thin...
Tue, Apr 16 2019, 10:32 AM
Reading the news this morning, I came across multiple articles with such bogus claims that I feel compelled to rant about it here. All of the offen...
Mon, Apr 15 2019, 6:15 PM
What would you expect to care more about Chinese economic data: the US bond market or the Chinese stock market? Option 2? Good, I agree.
Now, if y...
Mon, Apr 15 2019, 10:12 AM
Ah China... the US financial market's scapegoat of choice for many a swing that has nothing to do with China (with a few big, notable exceptions). ...
Fri, Apr 12 2019, 11:04 AM
The domestic bond market woke up this morning to find itself pushed up against the same ceiling that had offered a friendly bounce late last week. Be...
Thu, Apr 11 2019, 6:33 PM
As expected, the result of the emergency EU summit overnight was a hefty brexit extension, giving the UK until 10/31 to approve a compromise deal to l...
Thu, Apr 11 2019, 10:32 AM
Global financial markets caught a glimpse of a world with 10yr yields above 3% in late 2018, and they didn't like it. A combination of stock selling ...
Wed, Apr 10 2019, 5:04 PM
European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi is getting very good at telling the world that the EU economy is in dire straits, but not to worry ...
Wed, Apr 10 2019, 10:02 AM
Wednesday is off to a good start with friendly inflation data leading things off at 8:30am and an even friendlier press conference from European Centr...
Tue, Apr 9 2019, 5:29 PM
Treasuries were stronger today while MBS were mostly weaker. These days can happen, and they're all the more likely when a few key variables are pres...
Tue, Apr 9 2019, 9:20 AM
There are no significant economic reports or scheduled events on the calendar today, unless you count the 3yr Treasury auction at 1pm (and you probabl...
Mon, Apr 8 2019, 6:33 PM
Back on Thursday afternoon, bonds/rates looked like they were just wrapping up the process of rising into position between the old range and the new r...
Mon, Apr 8 2019, 9:46 AM
At first glance, this week's economic calendar is fairly light, with Wednesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) being the only upper-tier report in terms ...
Fri, Apr 5 2019, 5:39 PM
The tale of two ranges continued in grand fashion overnight as 10yr yields made it all the way to the top of the lower, better range seen since the Ma...
Fri, Apr 5 2019, 8:20 AM
Yesterday's bond market volume was as low as it's been since Monday, March 18th. Then, like now, bonds were on the approach to a big potential market...
Thu, Apr 4 2019, 5:27 PM
Bonds were very modestly stronger today, although the more important takeaway is that they effectively held in line with the highest yields of the pas...
Thu, Apr 4 2019, 10:04 AM
We've talked a lot about 2.55% in 10yr yields as an important floor for most of Q1 2019. It was broken after the Fed's March 20th announcement. For ...
Wed, Apr 3 2019, 4:34 PM
The title of yesterday's recap was "Don't Call It a Comeback," and today's weakness is why. Well, to be fair, since I'm always the first to tell you ...
Wed, Apr 3 2019, 10:01 AM
With 10yr yields beginning the day well over 2.50% and with 2.55% being the line in the sand marking the breakout from the sideways range at the begin...
Tue, Apr 2 2019, 5:08 PM
Bonds made some gains today, much to the relief of anyone who didn't really care to see rates explode higher after hitting long-term lows last week. ...
Tue, Apr 2 2019, 10:40 AM
It's no mystery at this point that the US bond market has exited its steep, directional, and super friendly move to long-term lows over the past few d...
Mon, Apr 1 2019, 5:45 PM
First thing's first, there's not much about a 10bp gain in 10yr yields and nearly a half a point of MBS weakness that would be considered "mini," but...
Mon, Apr 1 2019, 9:41 AM
In terms of directional movement, things have been great for bond markets since early November 2018. Much of that greatness, however, felt more like ...
Fri, Mar 29 2019, 3:54 PM
Bonds began the day in weaker territory, threatening to confirm a 2 day move that ends March's impressive run. Weakness remained intact all day but b...
Fri, Mar 29 2019, 10:36 AM
While the notion that "all good things come to an end" is the subject of philosophical debate, it's a safe bet that all awesome bond rallies will even...
Thu, Mar 28 2019, 6:01 PM
It's very easy to fall into the trap of allowing gains or losses to dictate one's market sentiment on any given day. For instance, am I more likely to...
Thu, Mar 28 2019, 9:40 AM
It's no secret that bonds have rallied impressively in March. The bigger and faster a rally is, the more we may worry about the risk of a bounce. To...
Wed, Mar 27 2019, 5:36 PM
The notion of contrarian indicators is pretty interesting when it comes to the bond market, at least when it comes to investor sentiment. I take pa...
Wed, Mar 27 2019, 9:57 AM
"Science" may not be exactly the right term, but let's look at the recent bond market gains under an objective microscope. In so doing, we will see t...
Tue, Mar 26 2019, 5:51 PM
All things being equal, today was a fine day for the bond market. Sure, 10yr yields ended the day 2bps higher than yesterday's latest levels, but in ...
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