Fri, Jan 11 2019, 10:11 AM
Today's Consumer Price Index was one of the week's only " important " pieces of economic data. Or perhaps we should say it was one of the week's only...
Thu, Jan 10 2019, 5:28 PM
It's hard to fault the bond market for any trading over the past several days. The data and the movement in other markets have both suggested bond ma...
Thu, Jan 10 2019, 10:15 AM
The massive stock selling in Q3 2018 was clearly a big deal for bonds. As soon as the first wave of selling hit in stocks, bonds engaged what we refe...
Wed, Jan 9 2019, 6:55 PM
The notion of "hope" comes up quite a bit in my daily recap pieces--often because something bad is happening and we hope for it to end or because some...
Wed, Jan 9 2019, 9:26 AM
While there are no significant scheduled events in play this morning, the afternoon hours bring the 10yr Treasury auction and the " minutes " from t...
Tue, Jan 8 2019, 4:36 PM
For several weeks heading into the December Fed announcement, we discussed the impressive Nov/Dec bond market rally and the fact that the Fed would li...
Tue, Jan 8 2019, 9:28 AM
In some nearby parallel dimension, the letter "f" is option in today's title. We'll have to remember this little trick the next time bonds bounce so ...
Mon, Jan 7 2019, 5:32 PM
Bonds had a chance to make the big potential correction of early 2019 a 1-day affair. That would refer, of course, to last Friday's bond market wea...
Mon, Jan 7 2019, 9:52 AM
Will rates be able to remain in the comparatively great territory they entered last week, or does Friday's post-NFP sell-off mean we should be fear...
Fri, Jan 4 2019, 5:16 PM
Yesterday's recap headline spoke of bonds being on fire in a good way. Apparently word got out . Several party poopers arrived with buckets of wate...
Fri, Jan 4 2019, 9:19 AM
It's no secret that the bond market has been on a tear for more than a month. 10yr Treasury yields dropped more than 30 basis points (0.30%) in Decem...
Thu, Jan 3 2019, 5:08 PM
Bonds hit their best levels in nearly a year today, depending on the security in question. MBS are lagging behind Treasuries for reasons discussed in...
Thu, Jan 3 2019, 9:53 AM
Bonds started the new year off on a strong note yesterday, rallying to the best levels since ____. That blank would be filled in with a distinctly di...
Wed, Jan 2 2019, 5:55 PM
Monday's half-day brought 2018 to a strongly positive conclusion for bonds. Today's full session picked up where Monday left off and then some . ...
Wed, Jan 2 2019, 8:31 AM
Overnight market movement was kind to the US bond market, keeping some hope alive for a continuation of recent strength. Rather than an epic rebound ...
Mon, Dec 31 2018, 9:40 AM
This week promises a slow start due to the early close today and full closure tomorrow, but a strong finish due to Friday's NFP and the simple fact ...
Fri, Dec 28 2018, 4:55 PM
Bonds have had their good eye on stocks for months now. Almost any instance of exceptional bond market strength has come courtesy of exceptional ...
Fri, Dec 28 2018, 9:17 AM
As we discuss off and on over the years, the relationship between stocks and bonds is always complicated. At times, it seems as if bond yields and st...
Thu, Dec 27 2018, 5:16 PM
Is this the "big one" or isn't it?! That's what everyone with a vested interested in the stock market would like to know about the ongoing sell-off t...
Thu, Dec 27 2018, 9:10 AM
Last Wednesday was Fed day and it marked a technical breakout for bond yields. As far back as June 2018, 10yr yields had been bouncing on a floor of ...
Wed, Dec 26 2018, 4:47 PM
Bonds had a rotten day, primarily because stocks had an amazing day (although the terrible 5yr Treasury auction didn't help). In turn, stocks prima...
Wed, Dec 26 2018, 10:04 AM
The title of the Day Ahead commentary on Monday was "Don't Get Too Attached." In a nutshell, the suggestion was to not get too attached to any decisi...
Mon, Dec 24 2018, 9:31 AM
The week and a half surrounding Christmas and New Years Day tends to play by its own random rules. Sometimes it fits in with the prevailing trend (in...
Fri, Dec 21 2018, 4:35 PM
After quite a bit of stock/bond correlation in the run up to the Fed announcement (and in the few hours that followed), the two sides of the market ...
Fri, Dec 21 2018, 8:35 AM
One of the biggest surprises I encountered as I've learned about bond markets (and financial markets in general) over the years is just how big a ro...
Thu, Dec 20 2018, 5:23 PM
Stocks and bonds haven't necessarily been joined at the hip for every moment of every day recently, but there's been enough correlation to make today'...
Thu, Dec 20 2018, 9:03 AM
When bonds have been in a relatively strong trend for better or worse heading into the 3rd week of December, we tend to see a consolidation or a conti...
Wed, Dec 19 2018, 4:58 PM
The Fed had a chance to soothe the stock market today by doing "something dovish" with respect to monetary policy or even forward guidance. "Someth...
Wed, Dec 19 2018, 2:03 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September November indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen ...
Wed, Dec 19 2018, 9:09 AM
What is the sound that doves make? I know they can cry, according to Prince, but "to cry or not to cry" would have been a weird headline title. I'm ...
Tue, Dec 18 2018, 4:59 PM
We're typically talking about "the bond market in terms of 10yr Treasury yields," but in terms of PRICES , there was certainly some gravity in play c...
Tue, Dec 18 2018, 9:58 AM
Fed day tomorrow! We'll finally get to see what's what with respect to recent speculation and a factual shift in tone from several Fed members (inclu...
Mon, Dec 17 2018, 5:46 PM
Just when you thought we might be done talking about "consolidations," there's that word again! I'd suggested on Friday that the modest bond market g...
Mon, Dec 17 2018, 9:37 AM
More than anything else over the past 3 weeks, a shift in tone among Fed speakers has been at the heart of the year's best bond market rally. Seeming...
Fri, Dec 14 2018, 5:44 PM
Bonds began the day in modestly stronger territory. While they spend a small amount of the day trading a small distance away from those opening lev...
Fri, Dec 14 2018, 9:24 AM
If you've truly come to an appreciation of the gravity of bonds' big picture headwinds over the past 2 years, then the past 5 weeks may feel like a st...
Thu, Dec 13 2018, 7:12 PM
Whether or not next week's Fed announcement proves to bring a winter storm for bond markets remains to be seen. That said, if anything is going to do...
Thu, Dec 13 2018, 9:26 AM
The first 3 days of this week have offered a clear correction/consolidation to the strong rally of the previous month. This had as much to do with ti...
Wed, Dec 12 2018, 7:02 PM
Today's trading session was far less eventful than anything else seen in the past few weeks, both in terms of movement and volume. Although Treasury ...
Wed, Dec 12 2018, 10:16 AM
As we begin the third day of moderate weakness in bond markets, it's safe to say that we're looking at the correction and/or consolidation that we exp...
Tue, Dec 11 2018, 5:37 PM
Government shutdowns make good news. When risks of a shutdown flare up (especially with today's sort of political theater) it tends to dominate the...
Tue, Dec 11 2018, 9:19 AM
Consolidation... That's that word we use to refer to sideways and frequently narrower trading ranges that follow a period of more directional movement...
Mon, Dec 10 2018, 5:44 PM
Bonds struggled to find inspiration for the first few hours of the domestic session, but it was soon in ample supply thanks to Brexit-related headline...
Mon, Dec 10 2018, 8:01 AM
We've had an impressive winning streak recently and have acquired gains worthy of a watchful, protective eye. Will this be a durable rally or a fleet...
Fri, Dec 7 2018, 4:23 PM
This morning's trading--both before and after NFP came out--basically acted as additional time for debate . Both MBS and Treasuries bounced quickly,...
Fri, Dec 7 2018, 8:33 AM
Powell's speech last week at the Economic Club of New York marked the beginning of an official shift. Until then, while the Fed had its dovish dissen...
Thu, Dec 6 2018, 5:29 PM
Without discussing what tomorrow may bring for bond markets, we can safely say that today was big. Both in terms volumes and outright trading level...
Thu, Dec 6 2018, 9:09 AM
Good times are rolling in the bond market, even if they're rolling much more for Treasuries as opposed to MBS. Nonetheless, MBS will continue to bene...
Tue, Dec 4 2018, 5:53 PM
Bonds rallied in a big way today with intraday lows of 2.885% in 10yr yields. There was also a prominent sell-off in stocks, begging the conclusion...
Tue, Dec 4 2018, 9:13 AM
The day begins with the December rally gathering steam, or at least maintaining the surprisingly strong levels achieved yesterday afternoon. Yields c...
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