Tue, Nov 26 2019, 5:24 PM
For those of you who are MBS Live members, yes, the recap title is the same as the MBS Huddle. Sorry for the lack of creativity, but this is an unins...
Tue, Nov 26 2019, 9:10 AM
Bonds have been doing fairly well for the past 2.5 weeks as yields have backed down from the 3-month highs seen at the beginning of the month. Over t...
Mon, Nov 25 2019, 4:28 PM
Attempting to competently perform bond market analysis on Thanksgiving week is a dangerous game. It will either drive a person insane(r), or simply l...
Mon, Nov 25 2019, 9:11 AM
I've been staring at this blank space on my monitor, where I normally put the words for the opening post of the day/week, for about 40 minutes, trying...
Fri, Nov 22 2019, 5:53 PM
'Twasn't the night before Christmas today, but 'twas the week before Thanksgiving. The "stirring creature" quotient is in the same ballpark. And for...
Fri, Nov 22 2019, 10:39 AM
I'm sorry if the following is starting to sound like a broken record, but it's all we really have at the moment. The bond market encounters these sor...
Thu, Nov 21 2019, 4:40 PM
Today brought one of the week's only potentially important economic reports in the form of the Philly Fed Index, but it fell on deaf ears. Notably, t...
Thu, Nov 21 2019, 10:22 AM
Much of 2019 has been "interesting" from an analytical standpoint. Things were happening. Markets were reacting. Movement was big and directional. ...
Wed, Nov 20 2019, 5:10 PM
There were 2 sorts of trade headlines in play today, but before we get to those, I wrote something today that bears repeating.
"The trade deal, in...
Wed, Nov 20 2019, 9:35 AM
Bonds are on a roll at the moment with 5 of the last 6 trading days resulting in lower yields. Rather than stand as some evidence of new strength in ...
Tue, Nov 19 2019, 5:13 PM
There's something special (and especially frustrating) about certain summertime Mondays. This is true not only because you might have been doing some...
Tue, Nov 19 2019, 9:40 AM
Daily and overnight trading volumes have been declining, and intraday trading ranges have been getting more narrow. The starting point for that trend...
Mon, Nov 18 2019, 4:51 PM
As 2019 winds down, investors have never been so broadly certain about the overall market thesis. Unfortunately, that thesis calls for unavoidable un...
Mon, Nov 18 2019, 10:38 AM
Last week provided a much-needed recovery that counteracted some of the fast-paced selling seen in the first week of November. Despite the friendly d...
Fri, Nov 15 2019, 7:06 PM
Yields broke up and out of their prevailing range last week and took the present week to focus on reentry. While those efforts went a long way toward...
Fri, Nov 15 2019, 8:31 AM
It's Friday and that means it's time to be on the lookout for unexpected trade-related headlines, especially in the afternoon. Those sorts of newswir...
Thu, Nov 14 2019, 4:58 PM
By the end of last week, although there was potentially a sliver of hope afforded by Friday's highs being slightly lower than Thursday's, it looked li...
Thu, Nov 14 2019, 9:32 AM
Bonds gave us quite a scare last week as key technical ceilings gave way. High volume and concrete fundamental justification added validity to the mo...
Wed, Nov 13 2019, 10:03 AM
The most defining moment of the big 2019 bond rally was undoubtedly the August 1st tariff announcement and the resulting massive reaction in both yiel...
Tue, Nov 12 2019, 5:01 PM
There are all kinds of bonds out there. We follow the 10yr Treasury even though this is a mortgage-specific site for reasons outlined here. Beyond T...
Tue, Nov 12 2019, 9:44 AM
1.90% has been the most important, most dangerous ceiling for 10yr Treasury yields ever since a nasty selling spree stalled out there exactly 2 months...
Fri, Nov 8 2019, 9:12 AM
If you don't expect anything good to happen for the bond market for the next few months, I guarantee you won't be disappointed. If, however, you expe...
Thu, Nov 7 2019, 6:21 PM
It was a big, bad day for the bond market, although the size of the thing ended up getting pared down just a bit in the afternoon. Chalk that up to a...
Thu, Nov 7 2019, 10:37 AM
Yesterday brought a brief reprieve for bonds after the first 2 days of the week threatened to confirm a big picture shift toward higher rates (or at l...
Wed, Nov 6 2019, 5:31 PM
Today's 10yr Treasury auction brought strong demand . Across the board, the auction stats were much stronger than expected. The only real problem w...
Wed, Nov 6 2019, 9:46 AM
Yesterday was a big, bad day for the bond market with the hotly-anticipated ISM Non-Manufacturing data coming in much stronger than expected. Bonds c...
Tue, Nov 5 2019, 6:29 PM
Heading into last week's Fed announcement and economic data, the analysis was starting to get a bit gloomy. It wasn't the first time I talked about...
Tue, Nov 5 2019, 8:52 AM
Bonds had a reasonably rough day yesterday, but most of the weakness was reserved for Treasuries. MBS managed to escape with minimal damage. There w...
Mon, Nov 4 2019, 7:09 PM
Treasuries tanked today and there were none of the sort of obvious catalysts you'd hope to see. I checked my math on that with people smarter than me...
Mon, Nov 4 2019, 10:23 AM
For some reason, I feel like the 2nd half of 2018 has been one of the most legitimately uncertain eras of bond trading in the post-crisis market envir...
Fri, Nov 1 2019, 5:24 PM
Bonds were stronger overnight, riding a wave of buying demand on the heels of yesterday's weak econ data and US/China trade deal uncertainty. Some ma...
Fri, Nov 1 2019, 9:41 AM
Bonds rallied big yesterday on a combination of factors. These included a rejection of the Trump administration's claimed timeline for the US/China t...
Thu, Oct 31 2019, 5:59 PM
Most of the month of October was rotten for the bond market. Material progress on the trade deal, a leveling-off of economic data deterioration, and ...
Thu, Oct 31 2019, 8:35 AM
Chicago PMI isn't always more important that PCE inflation. After all Core PCE is the Fed's favorite big-picture inflation reading (the thing they wa...
Wed, Oct 30 2019, 2:02 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July September indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic...
Wed, Oct 30 2019, 10:08 AM
The bond market had a decent enough day yesterday as it managed to hold steady-to-slightly-stronger versus Monday's ugly closing levels. "Supply" (ak...
Tue, Oct 29 2019, 5:33 PM
The only way to read anything overly dramatic into today's bond trading would simply be to observe where it falls in the bigger picture. In other wor...
Tue, Oct 29 2019, 9:28 AM
Yesterday saw the bond market sell off in a fairly frustrating way. Granted, there was some justification for the initial overnight weakness courtesy...
Mon, Oct 28 2019, 9:52 AM
Last Friday's morning commentary wasn't necessarily fun to read for fans of low rates, but it was important to digest for those that want to be prepar...
Fri, Oct 25 2019, 4:56 PM
Let's face it. It makes sense for the average bond trader to be more indecisive than normal right now. A no-deal Brexit was avoided this week (bad f...
Fri, Oct 25 2019, 11:17 AM
In about 2 weeks, the big bond rally of 2019 will officially be 1 year old (because it actually began in the 2nd week of November). This has been a u...
Thu, Oct 24 2019, 4:17 PM
At a few points in the past 2 days, it looked as if bonds were finally ready to move back toward lower yields after 2 weeks spent moving fairly quickl...
Thu, Oct 24 2019, 8:31 AM
Yesterday was fairly uneventful as global markets generally cooled off after 2 big days of Brexit-related volatility at the beginning of the week. Fo...
Wed, Oct 23 2019, 9:38 AM
Yesterday saw bonds respond almost exclusively to Brexit-related headlines (read THIS RECAP for a synopsis of the day's events and Brexit's impact on ...
Tue, Oct 22 2019, 5:42 PM
First things first: all of the volatility we're about to discuss has been occurring inside a fairly narrow range in the slightly bigger picture. More...
Tue, Oct 22 2019, 9:32 AM
Yesterday saw an extension of the recent selling trend in bonds with yields hitting the highest levels in more than a month. One might argue that yes...
Mon, Oct 21 2019, 9:09 AM
Last week saw the US bond market fight off an intermittent barrage of weakness as global markets geared up for the weekend's big Brexit vote. By Fri...
Fri, Oct 18 2019, 6:04 PM
Today was a throw-away day for the bond market. Yields matched their narrowest trading range of the week and ended the day at their most 'unchanged' ...
Fri, Oct 18 2019, 9:03 AM
Yesterday brought the highest yields in a month as Brexit-related optimism swelled early in the overnight session. At issue: British PM Johnson and E...
Thu, Oct 17 2019, 4:24 PM
The bond market has a lot on its mind right now. 2019 is proving to be very different from other episodes of big, protracted rate trends. In most pa...
MBS Market Alerts
