Tue, Mar 26 2019, 10:09 AM
Quite a few talking heads and analysts referred to last Wednesday's post-Fed rally as 'overdone.' They pointed to Thursday's moderate weakness as evi...
Mon, Mar 25 2019, 6:13 PM
There were no significant economic reports today and no obvious market-moving news headlines. Nevertheless, bonds went on yet another snowball rally ...
Mon, Mar 25 2019, 9:39 AM
From a calendar standpoint, the most notable thing about the week ahead is that it's the final week of the month/quarter. This usually means we'll ...
Fri, Mar 22 2019, 10:59 AM
Sometimes a plan comes together and sometimes an educated guess pans out. While it's never safe to plan on any future reality (other than "uncertai...
Thu, Mar 21 2019, 6:23 PM
Apparently it took the 9:30am NYSE opening bell ringer for stocks to truly realize what just happened. The Fed announcement on Wednesday was their wa...
Thu, Mar 21 2019, 10:27 AM
In case you missed yesterday, it was a doozy. Here are a few links that would help you get caught up:
Here's Why Bonds Loved The Fed (And It's ...
Wed, Mar 20 2019, 6:00 PM
You may see news stories about the Fed shifting its rate hike outlook (conveyed in a dot plot often referred to as "the dots") to "zero hikes in 2019,...
Wed, Mar 20 2019, 2:09 PM
Below are the differences in the first paragraph of the current Fed statement as compared to the previous version from January 30th, 2019. There were...
Wed, Mar 20 2019, 8:45 AM
Today's only key event will be the Fed Announcement , which is actually 3 events in 1. At 2pm, we'll get the policy announcement itself as well as t...
Tue, Mar 19 2019, 4:17 PM
Bonds began the day in weaker territory following overnight headlines suggesting European leaders would be going up to bat for a compromise Brexit d...
Tue, Mar 19 2019, 9:36 AM
Rates staged an impressive rally in November and December before bottoming out on the first trading day of 2019. The bounce was fairly abrupt at th...
Mon, Mar 18 2019, 5:02 PM
For the bond market St Paddy's day was a 2 week celebration of "green" (as in the color of price gains or falling yields on trading terminals) beginni...
Mon, Mar 18 2019, 9:18 AM
This week's economic calendar is exceptionally light, with no true top-tier reports. Even the 2nd-tier data is limited with Philly Fed on Thursday an...
Fri, Mar 15 2019, 7:39 PM
Uncertainty has reigned supreme for much of 2019 as traders weigh shifting economic data, potential data inconsistencies (due the shutdown), trade pol...
Fri, Mar 15 2019, 9:22 AM
People who write articles every day love holidays and other dates that offer some reprieve from the need to be creative when it comes to writing headl...
Thu, Mar 14 2019, 5:14 PM
In the bigger picture, we'll look back at today's intraday trading range and it will be completely meaningless--among the narrower days of 1st quarter...
Thu, Mar 14 2019, 9:56 AM
Top line, bottom line: Brexit is a big deal. Without the Brexit referendum in mid-2016, US bond yields never would have revisited all-time lows. It'...
Wed, Mar 13 2019, 5:05 PM
For the most part, today was marked by the same sort of resilience seen on several recent occasions where bond yields have either held steady or fall...
Wed, Mar 13 2019, 9:52 AM
Yesterday saw bonds tag their best levels since early January (Jan 3rd was the only day in over a year where yields closed any lower) on a combination...
Tue, Mar 12 2019, 4:18 PM
There were three salient market movers for the bond market today with one of them being a 2-parter.
First up was Brexit news in the overnight sess...
Tue, Mar 12 2019, 9:48 AM
Just as yesterday's domestic trading hours ended, British Prime Minister Theresa May met with EU leaders to try to tweak the Brexit proposal enough to...
Mon, Mar 11 2019, 4:38 PM
Today brought the Retail Sales report, which was responsible for a fairly big reaction the last time it came out. This time around, the reaction was ...
Mon, Mar 11 2019, 9:48 AM
Stop me if you've heard this one before. There's this range in early 2019... It was consolidating. Then it broke. Now it's sideways.
Unless you'...
Fri, Mar 8 2019, 4:14 PM
From bumpy ride to smooth sailing: bonds gained more ground this week than they lost during last week's range-breaking sell-off. I firmly believe tha...
Fri, Mar 8 2019, 9:35 AM
Truth is stranger than fiction sometimes. In today's case, the fiction is the fairly logical story most traders would write in their minds. That sto...
Thu, Mar 7 2019, 4:47 PM
Today was all about the European Central Bank's surprisingly bond-friendly announcement and press conference. Considering markets already expected ...
Thu, Mar 7 2019, 9:25 AM
Bonds have had a good thing going so far in 2019. Various geopolitical uncertainties combined with the prospect of downbeat economic growth in Q1 and...
Wed, Mar 6 2019, 5:01 PM
At first glance, this morning's ADP Employment data may have been cause for bond market concern. It wasn't that the headline was much higher than exp...
Wed, Mar 6 2019, 10:31 AM
If you're a frequent reader, you're likely tired of hearing about "the range." Such is life when bonds are range-bound, but that doesn't mean we can'...
Tue, Mar 5 2019, 7:27 PM
The bond market was already in the process of holding ground in the overnight session and domestic trading hours only added to the resilience. It may...
Tue, Mar 5 2019, 9:10 AM
It may seem a bit counter-intuitive to be talking up economic data in light of last week's bond sell-off. Friday saw weaker-than-expected consumer sp...
Mon, Mar 4 2019, 4:14 PM
As we watched bond markets sell-off abruptly last week, the best case scenario would have been that the selling was overdone and that we would soon be...
Mon, Mar 4 2019, 9:22 AM
2019 had been (and perhaps continues to be) dominated by an increasingly narrow range. To appreciate just how narrow things have been, consider the m...
Fri, Mar 1 2019, 5:04 PM
Heading into today, if you were hoping to see rates move lower, it would have made sense to hope for economic data to come in weaker than expected. T...
Fri, Mar 1 2019, 9:26 AM
The long-standing consolidation range in 10yr Treasury yields finally came under serious attack yesterday, with a big breakout to the upside. Any tim...
Thu, Feb 28 2019, 7:14 PM
GDP doesn't usually move markets as clearly as it did today, but today was a bit of an anomaly. First off, we'd been waiting for this revision longer...
Thu, Feb 28 2019, 9:53 AM
As many of you are likely tired of hearing, bonds have been locked in an increasingly narrow trading range for weeks. The bounces at the boundaries h...
Wed, Feb 27 2019, 5:41 PM
"Full of sound and fury, signifying nothing"
That's one of my favorite lines from some old book I read, or maybe it was a play (hint: it was a play!...
Wed, Feb 27 2019, 9:52 AM
Today brings a 2nd day of congressional testimony with Fed Chair Powell, this time before the House Financial Services Committee. The economic IQ var...
Tue, Feb 26 2019, 5:23 PM
Despite a fair amount of anticipation, today's Powell testimony proved to be a non-event for the bond market. Instead, things like the weak Housing...
Tue, Feb 26 2019, 9:59 AM
The Fed is undoubtedly a major factor in market movement--especially when it comes to rates. At first glance, the key consideration is their collec...
Mon, Feb 25 2019, 4:40 PM
If bonds happened to move higher in yield by more than they did today, we'd be talking about how the announcement of a US/China tariff extension put...
Mon, Feb 25 2019, 9:10 AM
The "big" news over the weekend was the announcement of an extension on US/China tariffs that were set to go into effect on March 1st. While an event...
Fri, Feb 22 2019, 7:23 PM
As recently as January 10th, Jerome Powell unequivocally stated that the Fed's balance sheet wind-down was on auto pilot. In other words, they weren'...
Fri, Feb 22 2019, 9:56 AM
If you're not familiar with these terms, you'll need the following definitions for today's commentary: hawkish/dovish.
The Fed is a key ingredient i...
Thu, Feb 21 2019, 4:48 PM
Although today brought the week's most anticipated line-up of economic data as well as overnight headlines on US/China trade agreements, the biggest m...
Thu, Feb 21 2019, 8:29 AM
If you're just joining us, we've been talking quite a bit in recent weeks about a consolidation range/trend in the bond market. This refers to a seri...
Wed, Feb 20 2019, 5:04 PM
One of the most interesting parts of today's Fed Minutes release was their characterization of the market's surprise at December announcement. At be...
Wed, Feb 20 2019, 9:18 AM
Yesterday, I mentioned that it was rare to see short-term momentum technicals consolidate in the center of their "overbought vs oversold" range. Thi...
Tue, Feb 19 2019, 5:17 PM
The range may be breaking! Well, one of the ranges we've been tracking may be breaking, as long as tomorrow sees bond markets hold the gains they saw...
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