Thu, Aug 22 2019, 8:52 AM
In the day just passed, bonds digested and reacted to the minutes from the latest Fed meeting (from late July). Given that the Fed cut rates at that ...
Wed, Aug 21 2019, 5:33 PM
Today brought the (not very) much-anticipated FOMC Minutes--a more detailed account of the conversation that transpired at the end of July when the Fe...
Wed, Aug 21 2019, 10:14 AM
In the day just passed, a modest uptrend in yields was "defeated" from a technical standpoint. Yields broke below a trend-line marking "higher lows" ...
Tue, Aug 20 2019, 5:41 PM
Bonds were breathing easy by the time the domestic session got underway. Before that, they kicked off the overnight session in lower yield territory....
Tue, Aug 20 2019, 8:59 AM
In the day just passed, we considered a rather melodramatic question ("is it over?"), which refers to the general strength in the bond market seen in ...
Mon, Aug 19 2019, 5:59 PM
There haven't been many market moving headlines over the past 2 days with the exception of Germany removing the veil of secrecy from its fiscal stim...
Mon, Aug 19 2019, 9:24 AM
In the week just passed, bonds rallied to new long-term low yields before bouncing on Friday. Hong Kong protests over the weekend kicked things off o...
Fri, Aug 16 2019, 4:54 PM
Perhaps more than any other day in the past few weeks, today stood as an example of the mortgage market's ability to put up a fight when the time is...
Fri, Aug 16 2019, 11:28 AM
10yr yields rallied aggressively yesterday, and for no reason more compelling than a proverbial "snowball rally compounded by technicals and algorithm...
Thu, Aug 15 2019, 5:35 PM
Bonds digested the week's busiest day of economic data, by far, today. But markets in general are only interested in data that changes the economic n...
Thu, Aug 15 2019, 8:37 AM
In the day just passed, bond markets primarily reacted to overseas economic data with many of the reports in Europe coming in flat to weaker. Combine...
Wed, Aug 14 2019, 7:00 PM
Living under a rock has a lot of advantages: generally low housing cost, durability, no roof maintenance, and if you're strong enough, you have someth...
Wed, Aug 14 2019, 10:50 AM
In the day just passed, bonds sold off by a completely average amount in the context of recent volatility and new trading range. Motivations were abo...
Tue, Aug 13 2019, 6:07 PM
Bonds began the day in relatively unchanged territory versus yesterday's close and soon encountered the slightly stronger CPI data (2.2 vs 2.1% for CO...
Tue, Aug 13 2019, 8:35 AM
In the day just passed, bonds put in their second biggest rally day of the past 3 weeks (the crazy ones) and their biggest rally day since yields bott...
Mon, Aug 12 2019, 6:00 PM
There were no significant scheduled events in the offing today. Volumes were down sharply in the bond complex as well (less than 50% of recent highs)...
Mon, Aug 12 2019, 9:30 AM
In the week just passed, bonds began to settle into a range after the sharp move lower in the previous week (driven by flaring trade tensions). This ...
Fri, Aug 9 2019, 4:53 PM
I wouldn't go so far as to say this week of bond market movement went "out like a lamb," but at the very least, it wasn't nearly as brutal as the firs...
Fri, Aug 9 2019, 12:48 PM
It's too late in the morning at this point to refer to this post as a "Day Ahead," so let's change course a bit and simply address the biggest burning...
Thu, Aug 8 2019, 5:12 PM
For some reason, yesterday's recap didn't go out. You didn't miss much. I wrote a bit about how I roll out of my high tech cryo-stasis chamber each ...
Thu, Aug 8 2019, 10:33 AM
In the day just passed, bonds endured whipsaw volatility of the highest and most frustrating order. Overnight gains were swift and largely defied any...
Wed, Aug 7 2019, 10:13 AM
In the day just passed, bonds held their ground after overnight weakness and eventually moved back into positive territory. That happened in spite of...
Tue, Aug 6 2019, 6:55 PM
MBS lost 10 ticks today while 10yr Notes gained 1 tick. Times like this are uncommon, but they do happen. The perfect storm required for such things...
Tue, Aug 6 2019, 9:50 AM
In the day just passed, the bond market spent a 3rd straight day collecting treasure. For our purposes, "treasure" refers to the newfound, unexpected...
Mon, Aug 5 2019, 4:52 PM
From 2010 on, the point about the interconnectedness of global financial markets has increasingly been driven home. It was a fun time for me, analyt...
Mon, Aug 5 2019, 10:01 AM
In the week just passed, bonds set out to react to the Fed announcement and a slew of important domestic economic data. While all of the above exerte...
Fri, Aug 2 2019, 8:00 PM
To be fair, after rates fall as much as they fell yesterday (let's specify: the rates implied by bond markets, not necessarily actual mortgage rates),...
Fri, Aug 2 2019, 8:31 AM
In the day just passed, bonds successfully stormed the castle, assuming the castle refers to 10yr yields with a "1" in front. At first inspiration ca...
Thu, Aug 1 2019, 4:07 PM
The world may never know if today's Trump tweets have anything at all to do with his stance on the Fed's fund rate, but one things for sure: they were...
Thu, Aug 1 2019, 9:26 AM
In the day just passed, bonds didn't move a ton in the bigger picture but endured an hour of whipsaw volatility surrounding the Fed announcement and p...
Wed, Jul 31 2019, 7:58 PM
The Fed Announcement and press conference may not have left bonds in hugely different territory today, but the 2pm-3pm hour was one of the wildest 60 ...
Wed, Jul 31 2019, 2:03 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May June indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activ...
Wed, Jul 31 2019, 8:54 AM
In the day just passed, bonds put in one more day of slow, illiquid summertime trading. Granted, volumes were slightly better than the previous sessi...
Tue, Jul 30 2019, 5:09 PM
Today had all the trappings of a return to some semblance of volume and volatility for what has otherwise been sleepy summertime bond trading patterns...
Tue, Jul 30 2019, 10:52 AM
In the day just passed, bonds drifted through one of those characteristic summertime Mondays without any meaningful liquidity, volume, or volatility. ...
Mon, Jul 29 2019, 4:43 PM
If you recall the analysis from a few days ago that called attention to the lowest daily trading volumes in Treasury futures in months, it's worth not...
Mon, Jul 29 2019, 10:45 AM
In the week just passed, bonds held a fairly narrow range with 10yr yields capped by a 2.10% ceiling. On the stronger side, they were generally unabl...
Fri, Jul 26 2019, 5:12 PM
Bonds began the day with intensely sideways momentum intact. That was the case all the way back to the 10am ET hour yesterday after yields rose in re...
Fri, Jul 26 2019, 9:37 AM
In the day just passed, bonds gyrated in response to (and in anticipation of) updates from the European Central Bank (ECB). Anticipation for a friend...
Thu, Jul 25 2019, 3:58 PM
The European Central Bank (ECB) announcement and press conference were hotly-anticipated as today's key events and they did not disappoint. The annou...
Thu, Jul 25 2019, 8:29 AM
In the day just passed, bonds managed to rally in the overnight session with help from weaker European economic data, which fueled expectations for an...
Wed, Jul 24 2019, 3:53 PM
A storm of potential inspiration is brewing for the bond market. Over the next 5 trading days we'll get announcements from the 2 biggest central bank...
Wed, Jul 24 2019, 9:17 AM
In the day just passed, bonds weakened slightly as corporate debt issuance weighed on Treasuries. Afternoon headlines regarding US/China trade negoti...
Tue, Jul 23 2019, 6:10 PM
MBS did a great job of fending off an onslaught of Treasury weakness today. MBS outperformance is a relatively foreign concept of late, but we do t...
Tue, Jul 23 2019, 8:56 AM
In the day just passed, bonds made modest gains at the open only to give most of them up by the close. Activity was concentrated at the specific open...
Mon, Jul 22 2019, 8:54 AM
In the week just passed, bonds set to the task of confirming a ceiling in yields that had been forming at the end of the previous week. The friendly ...
Fri, Jul 19 2019, 8:31 PM
If yesterday was marked by rather aggressive comments by Fed's Williams (aggressive enough to convince a few market participants that the Fed might cu...
Fri, Jul 19 2019, 9:25 AM
In the day just passed, bonds did an admirable job shaking off the ill effects of a significantly stronger Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Out...
Thu, Jul 18 2019, 6:13 PM
It was a tale of two market movers today as afternoon Fed comments completely reversed an earlier reaction to super strong economic data. The Philly ...
Thu, Jul 18 2019, 8:48 AM
In the day just passed, bonds enjoyed one of their best rally days in recent weeks as the stock market endured its 2nd weakest day since May. Stocks ...
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