Wed, Sep 11 2019, 9:50 AM
In the day just passed, bonds kicked into higher gear with respect to the correction that began to materialize last Thursday. If you feel like you mi...
Tue, Sep 10 2019, 6:14 PM
Bonds continued to sell-off again today--this time slightly more aggressively than yesterday. Yes, the current spike in yields/rates is frustrating, ...
Tue, Sep 10 2019, 9:16 AM
In the day just passed, bonds began the week with a resolute sell-off that broke through an important overhead ceiling in 10yr yields (1.62). Weaknes...
Mon, Sep 9 2019, 6:26 PM
Bonds were weaker overnight, weaker during the AM hours, and just for good measure, weaker again in the afternoon. When the dust cleared, 10yr yields...
Mon, Sep 9 2019, 9:13 AM
Bonds are starting out in weaker territory this morning, mostly due to European trading hours. An improving US/China trade dialogue has been the defa...
Fri, Sep 6 2019, 5:37 PM
To be sure, there was at least some amount of trepidation ahead of today's jobs report. The past 2 trading days made a clear case for it with stronge...
Fri, Sep 6 2019, 11:45 AM
The title is a bit misleading. 2.5% coupons are nothing new--especially if we're talking about 15yr MBS. Even in 30yr MBS, 2.5s were being traded as...
Thu, Sep 5 2019, 4:36 PM
It's only fitting to throw in a vacation-themed reference on Labor Day week. Unfortunately, only the metaphor is lighthearted. It's underlying messa...
Thu, Sep 5 2019, 10:00 AM
In the day just passed, the bond market endured a bit of selling pressure courtesy of various overseas developments and an onslaught of corporate bond...
Wed, Sep 4 2019, 8:23 PM
The past several days have been very good to the mortgage market. The secondary side of the market had been waiting for spreads to be able to tighten...
Wed, Sep 4 2019, 9:15 AM
In the day just passed, bonds rallied to start the overnight session, largely following Brexit-related trading in Europe. Yields rose moderately head...
Tue, Sep 3 2019, 5:31 PM
Today had potential to be one of those days where overnight give way to a frustrating sell-off that intensifies throughout the day. In fact, that wo...
Tue, Sep 3 2019, 9:26 AM
In the week just passed, Treasuries put in their most stable and uninspiring performance of the month (in their defense, it was a crazy month). Ever...
Fri, Aug 30 2019, 9:18 AM
In the day just passed, the Treasury complex came under pressure on several fronts. Trade related headlines sapped some of the safe haven demand, as ...
Thu, Aug 29 2019, 4:57 PM
Bonds were weaker overnight in response to upbeat trade headlines from China's commerce minister as well as Italian political news (read the MBS Liv...
Thu, Aug 29 2019, 9:37 AM
Yesterday was one of the most boring trading sessions in recent memory. There were no meaningful market movers to discuss for the Treasury complex. ...
Wed, Aug 28 2019, 7:07 PM
Not many moving part to today's trading session... Bonds were modestly stronger overnight, mostly in order to keep some semblance of pace with bett...
Wed, Aug 28 2019, 9:18 AM
In the day just passed, traders focused on the yield curve--an opaque term that officially refers to the entire curve of bond yields versus bond durat...
Tue, Aug 27 2019, 6:58 PM
Bonds drifted into slightly stronger territory in the overnight session. The move was seemingly devoid of inspiration and had a very technical, mecha...
Tue, Aug 27 2019, 9:05 AM
In the day just passed, bonds jumped out to an early lead in the overnight session on another incremental installment of trade war brinksmanship. Chi...
Mon, Aug 26 2019, 5:09 PM
It's a real bloodbath out there in the secondary mortgage market right now. The spread between MBS yields and Treasuries has quickly gone from surpri...
Mon, Aug 26 2019, 9:06 AM
In the week just passed, the bond market set out to digest and react to the Federal Reserve only to end up finding much bigger inspiration. Wednesday...
Fri, Aug 23 2019, 6:09 PM
I was going to leave Tennyson out of the headline and bask in the alliterative glory of an unprecedented 5T title, but I figured you should know there...
Fri, Aug 23 2019, 9:14 AM
In the day just passed, bond markets weakened in the overnight session and then held mostly steady during the domestic hours. The most notable attemp...
Thu, Aug 22 2019, 4:18 PM
Today's most prominent trade was the reaction to the 9:45am Markit PMI data. Several of the metrics were at their weakest levels since 2009. The com...
Thu, Aug 22 2019, 8:52 AM
In the day just passed, bonds digested and reacted to the minutes from the latest Fed meeting (from late July). Given that the Fed cut rates at that ...
Wed, Aug 21 2019, 5:33 PM
Today brought the (not very) much-anticipated FOMC Minutes--a more detailed account of the conversation that transpired at the end of July when the Fe...
Wed, Aug 21 2019, 10:14 AM
In the day just passed, a modest uptrend in yields was "defeated" from a technical standpoint. Yields broke below a trend-line marking "higher lows" ...
Tue, Aug 20 2019, 5:41 PM
Bonds were breathing easy by the time the domestic session got underway. Before that, they kicked off the overnight session in lower yield territory....
Tue, Aug 20 2019, 8:59 AM
In the day just passed, we considered a rather melodramatic question ("is it over?"), which refers to the general strength in the bond market seen in ...
Mon, Aug 19 2019, 5:59 PM
There haven't been many market moving headlines over the past 2 days with the exception of Germany removing the veil of secrecy from its fiscal stim...
Mon, Aug 19 2019, 9:24 AM
In the week just passed, bonds rallied to new long-term low yields before bouncing on Friday. Hong Kong protests over the weekend kicked things off o...
Fri, Aug 16 2019, 4:54 PM
Perhaps more than any other day in the past few weeks, today stood as an example of the mortgage market's ability to put up a fight when the time is...
Fri, Aug 16 2019, 11:28 AM
10yr yields rallied aggressively yesterday, and for no reason more compelling than a proverbial "snowball rally compounded by technicals and algorithm...
Thu, Aug 15 2019, 5:35 PM
Bonds digested the week's busiest day of economic data, by far, today. But markets in general are only interested in data that changes the economic n...
Thu, Aug 15 2019, 8:37 AM
In the day just passed, bond markets primarily reacted to overseas economic data with many of the reports in Europe coming in flat to weaker. Combine...
Wed, Aug 14 2019, 7:00 PM
Living under a rock has a lot of advantages: generally low housing cost, durability, no roof maintenance, and if you're strong enough, you have someth...
Wed, Aug 14 2019, 10:50 AM
In the day just passed, bonds sold off by a completely average amount in the context of recent volatility and new trading range. Motivations were abo...
Tue, Aug 13 2019, 6:07 PM
Bonds began the day in relatively unchanged territory versus yesterday's close and soon encountered the slightly stronger CPI data (2.2 vs 2.1% for CO...
Tue, Aug 13 2019, 8:35 AM
In the day just passed, bonds put in their second biggest rally day of the past 3 weeks (the crazy ones) and their biggest rally day since yields bott...
Mon, Aug 12 2019, 6:00 PM
There were no significant scheduled events in the offing today. Volumes were down sharply in the bond complex as well (less than 50% of recent highs)...
Mon, Aug 12 2019, 9:30 AM
In the week just passed, bonds began to settle into a range after the sharp move lower in the previous week (driven by flaring trade tensions). This ...
Fri, Aug 9 2019, 4:53 PM
I wouldn't go so far as to say this week of bond market movement went "out like a lamb," but at the very least, it wasn't nearly as brutal as the firs...
Fri, Aug 9 2019, 12:48 PM
It's too late in the morning at this point to refer to this post as a "Day Ahead," so let's change course a bit and simply address the biggest burning...
Thu, Aug 8 2019, 5:12 PM
For some reason, yesterday's recap didn't go out. You didn't miss much. I wrote a bit about how I roll out of my high tech cryo-stasis chamber each ...
Thu, Aug 8 2019, 10:33 AM
In the day just passed, bonds endured whipsaw volatility of the highest and most frustrating order. Overnight gains were swift and largely defied any...
Wed, Aug 7 2019, 10:13 AM
In the day just passed, bonds held their ground after overnight weakness and eventually moved back into positive territory. That happened in spite of...
Tue, Aug 6 2019, 6:55 PM
MBS lost 10 ticks today while 10yr Notes gained 1 tick. Times like this are uncommon, but they do happen. The perfect storm required for such things...
Tue, Aug 6 2019, 9:50 AM
In the day just passed, the bond market spent a 3rd straight day collecting treasure. For our purposes, "treasure" refers to the newfound, unexpected...
Mon, Aug 5 2019, 4:52 PM
From 2010 on, the point about the interconnectedness of global financial markets has increasingly been driven home. It was a fun time for me, analyt...
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