Mon, Aug 5 2019, 10:01 AM
In the week just passed, bonds set out to react to the Fed announcement and a slew of important domestic economic data. While all of the above exerte...
Fri, Aug 2 2019, 8:00 PM
To be fair, after rates fall as much as they fell yesterday (let's specify: the rates implied by bond markets, not necessarily actual mortgage rates),...
Fri, Aug 2 2019, 8:31 AM
In the day just passed, bonds successfully stormed the castle, assuming the castle refers to 10yr yields with a "1" in front. At first inspiration ca...
Thu, Aug 1 2019, 4:07 PM
The world may never know if today's Trump tweets have anything at all to do with his stance on the Fed's fund rate, but one things for sure: they were...
Thu, Aug 1 2019, 9:26 AM
In the day just passed, bonds didn't move a ton in the bigger picture but endured an hour of whipsaw volatility surrounding the Fed announcement and p...
Wed, Jul 31 2019, 7:58 PM
The Fed Announcement and press conference may not have left bonds in hugely different territory today, but the 2pm-3pm hour was one of the wildest 60 ...
Wed, Jul 31 2019, 2:03 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May June indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activ...
Wed, Jul 31 2019, 8:54 AM
In the day just passed, bonds put in one more day of slow, illiquid summertime trading. Granted, volumes were slightly better than the previous sessi...
Tue, Jul 30 2019, 5:09 PM
Today had all the trappings of a return to some semblance of volume and volatility for what has otherwise been sleepy summertime bond trading patterns...
Tue, Jul 30 2019, 10:52 AM
In the day just passed, bonds drifted through one of those characteristic summertime Mondays without any meaningful liquidity, volume, or volatility. ...
Mon, Jul 29 2019, 4:43 PM
If you recall the analysis from a few days ago that called attention to the lowest daily trading volumes in Treasury futures in months, it's worth not...
Mon, Jul 29 2019, 10:45 AM
In the week just passed, bonds held a fairly narrow range with 10yr yields capped by a 2.10% ceiling. On the stronger side, they were generally unabl...
Fri, Jul 26 2019, 5:12 PM
Bonds began the day with intensely sideways momentum intact. That was the case all the way back to the 10am ET hour yesterday after yields rose in re...
Fri, Jul 26 2019, 9:37 AM
In the day just passed, bonds gyrated in response to (and in anticipation of) updates from the European Central Bank (ECB). Anticipation for a friend...
Thu, Jul 25 2019, 3:58 PM
The European Central Bank (ECB) announcement and press conference were hotly-anticipated as today's key events and they did not disappoint. The annou...
Thu, Jul 25 2019, 8:29 AM
In the day just passed, bonds managed to rally in the overnight session with help from weaker European economic data, which fueled expectations for an...
Wed, Jul 24 2019, 3:53 PM
A storm of potential inspiration is brewing for the bond market. Over the next 5 trading days we'll get announcements from the 2 biggest central bank...
Wed, Jul 24 2019, 9:17 AM
In the day just passed, bonds weakened slightly as corporate debt issuance weighed on Treasuries. Afternoon headlines regarding US/China trade negoti...
Tue, Jul 23 2019, 6:10 PM
MBS did a great job of fending off an onslaught of Treasury weakness today. MBS outperformance is a relatively foreign concept of late, but we do t...
Tue, Jul 23 2019, 8:56 AM
In the day just passed, bonds made modest gains at the open only to give most of them up by the close. Activity was concentrated at the specific open...
Mon, Jul 22 2019, 8:54 AM
In the week just passed, bonds set to the task of confirming a ceiling in yields that had been forming at the end of the previous week. The friendly ...
Fri, Jul 19 2019, 8:31 PM
If yesterday was marked by rather aggressive comments by Fed's Williams (aggressive enough to convince a few market participants that the Fed might cu...
Fri, Jul 19 2019, 9:25 AM
In the day just passed, bonds did an admirable job shaking off the ill effects of a significantly stronger Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Out...
Thu, Jul 18 2019, 6:13 PM
It was a tale of two market movers today as afternoon Fed comments completely reversed an earlier reaction to super strong economic data. The Philly ...
Thu, Jul 18 2019, 8:48 AM
In the day just passed, bonds enjoyed one of their best rally days in recent weeks as the stock market endured its 2nd weakest day since May. Stocks ...
Wed, Jul 17 2019, 5:26 PM
What began as a rather unassuming summertime Wednesday quickly turned in to one of the biggest rally days in weeks for bonds. 10yr yields moved more ...
Wed, Jul 17 2019, 9:23 AM
In the day just passed, a strong Retail Sales report kept the pressure on bond markets to remain in the negative trend that prevailed last week. Yiel...
Tue, Jul 16 2019, 6:27 PM
Bonds began the day in roughly unchanged territory. On the one hand, that was impressive considering the lack of substance underlying yesterday's ral...
Tue, Jul 16 2019, 8:35 AM
In the day just passed, bonds traversed a sleepy summertime Monday trading session without much volume or liquidity. That dynamic was somewhat exacer...
Mon, Jul 15 2019, 4:42 PM
Today was one of those unofficial 3-day weekend type of Mondays with light volume, light trader participation, and "drifty" trading momentum. A marke...
Mon, Jul 15 2019, 9:12 AM
In the week just passed, the first 4 days (and especially Tue/Thu) served as the scene for a breakout from the previous trend (seen in the yellow line...
Fri, Jul 12 2019, 6:28 PM
Last Friday's jobs report meant business (bad business for low rates). Even though Powell ultimately told us that one jobs report wouldn't fundamen...
Fri, Jul 12 2019, 9:12 AM
In the day just passed, bonds slipped into a bit of a capitulation sell-off following slightly stronger CPI data and a much weaker 30yr bond auction. ...
Thu, Jul 11 2019, 9:08 AM
In the day just passed, bonds weakened abruptly in the overnight session--mostly due to strong European economic data. Traders were also cautious ahe...
Wed, Jul 10 2019, 3:10 PM
There was a lot that could have gone wrong for the bond market today, given the confluence of big-ticket events (Powell testimony, 10yr auction, Fed m...
Wed, Jul 10 2019, 9:16 AM
In the day just passed, bonds weakened slightly but remained inside the recent range. The weakness is in line with a linear trend leading to the uppe...
Tue, Jul 9 2019, 3:59 PM
Bonds weakened today, even if only slightly. It was enough to bring 10yr yields right up to the closest and arguably most significant overhead tech...
Tue, Jul 9 2019, 9:21 AM
In the day just past, bonds began the week slowly and without much conviction. Friday's post-NFP weakness was essentially confirmed by the fact that ...
Mon, Jul 8 2019, 6:01 PM
Today was the story of a bond market that is considering a potential shift in momentum in response to a confluence of events. These include last Frid...
Mon, Jul 8 2019, 9:13 AM
In the week just past, bonds rallied hard into the Independence Day holiday. 10yr yields hit fresh multi-year lows before getting slammed by a jobs r...
Fri, Jul 5 2019, 6:04 PM
If we went back to Monday morning and learned that today's NFP number would come in at 224k, any sane person would have guessed yields would be much h...
Fri, Jul 5 2019, 8:31 AM
On Wednesday, bond markets digested two of the week's most important economic reports in the from of ADP employment and ISM non-manufacturing. Appoin...
Wed, Jul 3 2019, 8:15 AM
In the day just past, the bond market finally made its first move outside of the recent consolidation range--a series of lower highs and higher lows t...
Tue, Jul 2 2019, 4:55 PM
In the amusement park that is financial markets, each asset class has a few favorite rides. When the place is packed, it's tough for any given asset ...
Tue, Jul 2 2019, 9:41 AM
In the day just past, bonds did an admirable job of fending off the implications of the weekend's G20 news (US/China reopening trade talks, etc). Whi...
Mon, Jul 1 2019, 6:07 PM
There was certainly some risk of volatility associated with the G20 summit over the weekend, even if no one expected it to produce any fundamental cha...
Mon, Jul 1 2019, 9:37 AM
In the week just past, bonds avoided a negative correction following the previous week's Fed-induced rally. There was plenty of back and forth, but i...
Fri, Jun 28 2019, 3:01 PM
Bonds were perfectly unchanged to start the day after the smallest amount of overnight movement we've seen all week. This is a palpable reminder th...
Fri, Jun 28 2019, 8:34 AM
In the day just past, both stocks and bonds showed a greater predisposition to react to trade-related headlines (more so in stocks, but noticeable in ...
Thu, Jun 27 2019, 5:33 PM
Stop me if you've heard this one before: bonds have been trading in a mostly sideways, consolidative range ahead of what should prove to be key events...
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