Tue, Nov 13 2018, 4:51 PM
CPI (the Consumer Price Index) has been the most relevant economic report on the horizon since the balmy NFP report from 2 weeks back. Reason being...
Tue, Nov 13 2018, 9:23 AM
As of last Thursday, it didn't look like traders were much interested in hearing arguments in favor of bonds. Then, an unexpectedly healthy little ...
Fri, Nov 9 2018, 6:26 PM
Interesting day today... It began with a decent overnight rally, mostly led by European bond markets. The first big speed-bump came at 8:30am with ...
Fri, Nov 9 2018, 9:20 AM
Between the mid-term elections earlier this week and the simple tradeflow move following the Fed yesterday, bond markets have had their chance to make...
Thu, Nov 8 2018, 5:02 PM
It's hard not to give the Fed a wide berth as the biggest potential market mover on any given Fed day. Today was a Fed day! We talked about the ou...
Thu, Nov 8 2018, 2:13 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August September indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen an...
Thu, Nov 8 2018, 9:11 AM
I'm going to talk about the potential for a friendly bounce in bonds today. I want to be clear right up front that I'm presenting this as one of two ...
Wed, Nov 7 2018, 5:05 PM
Those who expected the election to matter to bond markets got their way overnight. Those who expected elections to be inconsequential got their way...
Wed, Nov 7 2018, 9:05 AM
Whether you thought the election would or would not matter for the bond market, you were right! At times, it mattered quite a bit in the overnight ...
Tue, Nov 6 2018, 5:37 PM
While we can point to tonight's election results on the calendar, and imagine that they'll have an impact on financial markets, stocks and bonds sim...
Tue, Nov 6 2018, 8:52 AM
Justified or not, midterm elections are the market mover du jour. Midterm elections happen today, so it's fair to wonder if they will be a market mov...
Mon, Nov 5 2018, 5:19 PM
Today had the look and feel of a summertime Monday--the first we've seen since--well...summertime! Volume was much lighter than it has been in week...
Mon, Nov 5 2018, 8:58 AM
Bonds had a rough week last week, more than fully erasing the rally they enjoyed as stocks sold-off in the previous week. Today's first chart shows t...
Fri, Nov 2 2018, 7:29 PM
Today, and indeed the week in general was fairly straightforward as far as bond markets were concerned. Today brought a fairly well anticipated jobs ...
Fri, Nov 2 2018, 8:26 AM
This morning brings the often-important jobs report. Traditionally, the key component has been nonfarm payrolls (NFP), which is just a tally of new j...
Thu, Nov 1 2018, 4:54 PM
Today ended up being somewhat triumphant for bonds. It didn't begin that way, however. Yields were higher overnight and moved up just a bit more in ...
Thu, Nov 1 2018, 8:37 AM
Bonds have either trying to position themselves in a relatively defensive, pessimistic stance heading into upcoming key events, or their staging on ...
Wed, Oct 31 2018, 4:13 PM
Bonds ended the day in weaker territory with 10yr yields rising roughly 3bps and Fannie 4.0 MBS losing nearly a quarter of a point.
Much like yester...
Wed, Oct 31 2018, 9:18 AM
The title of this commentary is not a Halloween pun . I don't do Halloween puns anymore. No, there is some legitimate cause for concern--even a bit...
Tue, Oct 30 2018, 4:04 PM
If there's a theme in the bond market over the past 2 days, it's that we've broken away from the previously fairly rigid correlation with stocks. Tha...
Tue, Oct 30 2018, 8:45 AM
With bonds being flat to slightly weaker yesterday and now noticeably weaker overnight, we may be looking at our first real resistance bounce (aka "fl...
Mon, Oct 29 2018, 5:00 PM
The bond market has seen one too many "stay thirsty" memes. For example, "I don't always rally for more than a few days in a rising rate environmen...
Mon, Oct 29 2018, 10:04 AM
Core global bond markets--led by German Bunds and US Treasuries--have been trending lower fairly reliably. For European bonds, that rally has occupie...
Fri, Oct 26 2018, 5:42 PM
Interest rates that have generally been rising for a any period of time can catch a break for many reasons. Sometimes it's Italian political drama ...
Fri, Oct 26 2018, 8:31 AM
Everything continues to be fairly unidimensional for bonds this week with the dimension in question being that of the equities market. In terms of re...
Thu, Oct 25 2018, 5:32 PM
The best way to look at today is as a more sober attempt to hold the lowest yields in more than 3 weeks . The only day that's ended any better for...
Thu, Oct 25 2018, 9:07 AM
With slightly weaker levels overnight, the rest of the day becomes a fight to maintain the gains seen so far this week. The easiest and most basic ob...
Wed, Oct 24 2018, 4:56 PM
Yesterday was ' neat ' for a while--at least in the morning hours when massive stock losses helped bonds achieve their best levels in weeks. Then sto...
Wed, Oct 24 2018, 8:49 AM
For nearly a week, 10yr Treasury yields had been treating 3.18% as a floor (3.178% was the lowest close over the past 4 days. That arguably changed ...
Tue, Oct 23 2018, 5:49 PM
What a frustrating day! Yes, it's true that bonds ended up in positive territory at the close, but it would have almost been better to endure a modes...
Tue, Oct 23 2018, 4:56 PM
Duration is a key variable in deciding value to bond investors investors. In fact, many investors have a duration target for their portfolio. Duratio...
Tue, Oct 23 2018, 9:17 AM
Yesterday was boring and uneventful. Bonds seemed to be trying everything in their power to remain range-bound and avoid breaking out of the consol...
Mon, Oct 22 2018, 5:26 PM
As of October 16th, we'd been tracking the most recent consolidation in bond yields (and stocks for that matter) waiting for a breakout to suggest the...
Mon, Oct 22 2018, 8:47 AM
The basic candlestick or bar chart that the average bond analyst uses to track 10yr Treasury yields is doing a good job of capturing the current oppos...
Fri, Oct 19 2018, 8:02 PM
Bonds were stuck between a rock and a hard place today. Actually they were stuck between stocks and a European place. Stocks made a case for a bond ...
Fri, Oct 19 2018, 8:54 AM
We've talked a bit (in this commentary and in the live chat on MBS Live ) about the similarities between the October sell-off and one seen in April/M...
Thu, Oct 18 2018, 5:04 PM
Bond markets began the day almost perfectly unchanged relative to yesterday's latest levels. That means the nasty little afternoon selling spree was ...
Thu, Oct 18 2018, 9:44 AM
What is a pivot point? In our primer on the topic, I talk mostly about levels that have repeatedly offered resistance or support to bond yields, but ...
Wed, Oct 17 2018, 5:06 PM
Hindsight really is 20/20, and foresight wasn't too bad either. Either way, the picture is becoming clearer as bond yields move back toward recent hi...
Wed, Oct 17 2018, 9:57 AM
There are only so many ways to say that bonds are range-bound and waiting for the motivation to break that range. Could it be the Fed Minutes today...
Tue, Oct 16 2018, 4:30 PM
The S&P recovered roughly half of its losses from last week today, decisively breaking out of the consolidation pattern that had been in place throu...
Tue, Oct 16 2018, 8:40 AM
Waiting... That's all anyone has been doing since last Thursday in financial markets. One day prior, stocks jumped off a cliff and bond yields raced ...
Mon, Oct 15 2018, 5:32 PM
This morning's Retail Sales report was arguably the biggest-ticket of the week in terms of economic data. It speaks to the ongoing level of uncerta...
Mon, Oct 15 2018, 9:04 AM
Before last week's stock rout, bonds were stuck in a rut. For four straight sessions, they hit the highest intraday yields since 2011. Even after ...
Fri, Oct 12 2018, 7:07 PM
Referring to the week of bond trading as " crazy " is a bit of a stretch. If we bring stocks into the mix, or if we go back to last Wednesday, it's b...
Fri, Oct 12 2018, 9:59 AM
Is there potential for today to turn into a "black Friday" with catastrophic stock losses that usher in the most amazing bond rally we've seen in year...
Thu, Oct 11 2018, 6:16 PM
Bonds rallied today, eventually. Most of the session was fairly flat with the afternoon bringing most of the rally thanks to another sell-off in st...
Thu, Oct 11 2018, 9:25 AM
Anything more than 20 points is a big day of selling in terms of the S&P, but that's a small enough number to be relatively common, periodically. Fro...
Wed, Oct 10 2018, 6:35 PM
Remember last Wednesday? Rather forget it? Yeah, me too.
That was the day that bond yields spiked last week. The size and speed of the move was o...
Wed, Oct 10 2018, 9:36 AM
One of the most important themes I've tried to communicate over the past 2 weeks is that the bond market is in the middle of redefining or repricing...
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