Thu, Oct 25 2018, 5:32 PM
The best way to look at today is as a more sober attempt to hold the lowest yields in more than 3 weeks . The only day that's ended any better for...
Thu, Oct 25 2018, 9:07 AM
With slightly weaker levels overnight, the rest of the day becomes a fight to maintain the gains seen so far this week. The easiest and most basic ob...
Wed, Oct 24 2018, 4:56 PM
Yesterday was ' neat ' for a while--at least in the morning hours when massive stock losses helped bonds achieve their best levels in weeks. Then sto...
Wed, Oct 24 2018, 8:49 AM
For nearly a week, 10yr Treasury yields had been treating 3.18% as a floor (3.178% was the lowest close over the past 4 days. That arguably changed ...
Tue, Oct 23 2018, 5:49 PM
What a frustrating day! Yes, it's true that bonds ended up in positive territory at the close, but it would have almost been better to endure a modes...
Tue, Oct 23 2018, 4:56 PM
Duration is a key variable in deciding value to bond investors investors. In fact, many investors have a duration target for their portfolio. Duratio...
Tue, Oct 23 2018, 9:17 AM
Yesterday was boring and uneventful. Bonds seemed to be trying everything in their power to remain range-bound and avoid breaking out of the consol...
Mon, Oct 22 2018, 5:26 PM
As of October 16th, we'd been tracking the most recent consolidation in bond yields (and stocks for that matter) waiting for a breakout to suggest the...
Mon, Oct 22 2018, 8:47 AM
The basic candlestick or bar chart that the average bond analyst uses to track 10yr Treasury yields is doing a good job of capturing the current oppos...
Fri, Oct 19 2018, 8:02 PM
Bonds were stuck between a rock and a hard place today. Actually they were stuck between stocks and a European place. Stocks made a case for a bond ...
Fri, Oct 19 2018, 8:54 AM
We've talked a bit (in this commentary and in the live chat on MBS Live ) about the similarities between the October sell-off and one seen in April/M...
Thu, Oct 18 2018, 5:04 PM
Bond markets began the day almost perfectly unchanged relative to yesterday's latest levels. That means the nasty little afternoon selling spree was ...
Thu, Oct 18 2018, 9:44 AM
What is a pivot point? In our primer on the topic, I talk mostly about levels that have repeatedly offered resistance or support to bond yields, but ...
Wed, Oct 17 2018, 5:06 PM
Hindsight really is 20/20, and foresight wasn't too bad either. Either way, the picture is becoming clearer as bond yields move back toward recent hi...
Wed, Oct 17 2018, 9:57 AM
There are only so many ways to say that bonds are range-bound and waiting for the motivation to break that range. Could it be the Fed Minutes today...
Tue, Oct 16 2018, 4:30 PM
The S&P recovered roughly half of its losses from last week today, decisively breaking out of the consolidation pattern that had been in place throu...
Tue, Oct 16 2018, 8:40 AM
Waiting... That's all anyone has been doing since last Thursday in financial markets. One day prior, stocks jumped off a cliff and bond yields raced ...
Mon, Oct 15 2018, 5:32 PM
This morning's Retail Sales report was arguably the biggest-ticket of the week in terms of economic data. It speaks to the ongoing level of uncerta...
Mon, Oct 15 2018, 9:04 AM
Before last week's stock rout, bonds were stuck in a rut. For four straight sessions, they hit the highest intraday yields since 2011. Even after ...
Fri, Oct 12 2018, 7:07 PM
Referring to the week of bond trading as " crazy " is a bit of a stretch. If we bring stocks into the mix, or if we go back to last Wednesday, it's b...
Fri, Oct 12 2018, 9:59 AM
Is there potential for today to turn into a "black Friday" with catastrophic stock losses that usher in the most amazing bond rally we've seen in year...
Thu, Oct 11 2018, 6:16 PM
Bonds rallied today, eventually. Most of the session was fairly flat with the afternoon bringing most of the rally thanks to another sell-off in st...
Thu, Oct 11 2018, 9:25 AM
Anything more than 20 points is a big day of selling in terms of the S&P, but that's a small enough number to be relatively common, periodically. Fro...
Wed, Oct 10 2018, 6:35 PM
Remember last Wednesday? Rather forget it? Yeah, me too.
That was the day that bond yields spiked last week. The size and speed of the move was o...
Wed, Oct 10 2018, 9:36 AM
One of the most important themes I've tried to communicate over the past 2 weeks is that the bond market is in the middle of redefining or repricing...
Tue, Oct 9 2018, 5:12 PM
Today was a freebie for bond markets (and stocks to some extent). In the grand scheme of things, no one will look back at today and conclude anythi...
Tue, Oct 9 2018, 9:06 AM
2009-2013 was an unprecedented time for the US bond market. It benefited not only from the initial blast of the Great Recession and the sluggish re...
Fri, Oct 5 2018, 8:48 PM
The jobs report may have missed the mark in terms of payrolls, but average hourly earnings put in its 4th straight month holding 2.8% (y/y) or high...
Fri, Oct 5 2018, 8:30 AM
At this point, there's nothing left to be said or done in preparation for today's NFP data. Bonds stand on the edge of the most recent abyss. This t...
Thu, Oct 4 2018, 4:48 PM
If you're looking for today's recap, check out the Huddle. Or just know that we sold-off a bit more and then settled sideways, fairly close to yester...
Thu, Oct 4 2018, 9:30 AM
If you didn't catch it, and want to get caught up with yesterday's big move, this tweet has several links that should bring you thoroughly up to speed...
Wed, Oct 3 2018, 6:20 PM
In terms of outright movement toward higher rates, you'd have to go back to the days following the election in November 2016 to find anything worse ...
Wed, Oct 3 2018, 8:23 AM
Zen practitioners are an odd lot. One of their hallmark koans--the one about whether or not a tree falling in the woods makes a sound--is nonsense. ...
Tue, Oct 2 2018, 4:21 PM
Bonds had a couple options to choose from today when it came to potential market movers. As far as known quantities, we knew there would be a speech ...
Tue, Oct 2 2018, 8:37 AM
So there's this sideways trading range, and we're waiting for bonds to break out. The end...
Seriously though! It's really that simple . We'd b...
Mon, Oct 1 2018, 5:14 PM
After slogging up toward (but not over) long-term highs 2 weeks ago, 10yr yields began a waiting game that looked like it would take a cue from last W...
Mon, Oct 1 2018, 9:13 AM
Believe it or not, any given month stands a better than average chance to convey some sort of theme for bond trading. In other words, there tends to ...
Fri, Sep 28 2018, 5:00 PM
Today brought rather pervasive pressure on longer-term rates and mortgages. It wasn't a significant amount of selling, but it was fairly steady thr...
Fri, Sep 28 2018, 8:31 AM
September has been a long month for the bond market as rates quickly trudged back up to levels that aligned with our more pessimistic assumptions for ...
Thu, Sep 27 2018, 4:43 PM
In the past week, we've seen 10yr yields rise up and over 3.06%, flirt with 3.10%+ and come back down. This has happened only one other time since ...
Thu, Sep 27 2018, 9:09 AM
Yesterday's Fed announcement--specifically, Fed Chair Powell's press conference remarks--set bonds up for a potential bounce. This would come at a c...
Wed, Sep 26 2018, 4:59 PM
For a while, it looked like today would turn out to be one of those "dud" Fed days where actual market movement woefully undershoots potential market ...
Wed, Sep 26 2018, 2:08 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June August indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and th...
Wed, Sep 26 2018, 9:22 AM
In trying to put together a chart for this morning, I kept running into a wall. It had to do with the likely outcomes associated with different Fed f...
Tue, Sep 25 2018, 4:35 PM
Bonds began the day in weaker territory this morning, and they didn't need anyone to twist their arm in getting there. That was our first clue that...
Tue, Sep 25 2018, 9:11 AM
We talk sometimes about bonds taking a "lead-off" (like in that sport that a few of us still remember). Well, at least I talk about bonds taking a le...
Mon, Sep 24 2018, 4:36 PM
Have you heard? The Fed announcement is coming up on Wednesday. While you've undoubtedly heard about that more than a few times (unless this is yo...
Mon, Sep 24 2018, 9:11 AM
It would be a tad dramatic to say that rates are at a crossroads as we head into the end of September, unless there's any additional weakness this wee...
Fri, Sep 21 2018, 5:28 PM
By today, it became clear that bonds were fully locked into a sideways consolidation in a range defined by the highs seen on Wed/Thu and the lows mark...
Fri, Sep 21 2018, 10:15 AM
More often than not, when I use the word "believe" (or belief), it's in some vague and positive context. For instance, something like "bond buyers ar...
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