Tue, Aug 14 2018, 4:30 PM
Bonds began the day in moderately weaker territory as Turkish tensions eased overnight. That certainly wasn't the only game in town as far as market ...
Tue, Aug 14 2018, 9:24 AM
Turkish Lira bounced in the overnight session--not in any epic fashion, but enough to result in a bit of spillover for stocks/bonds. 10yr yields rose...
Mon, Aug 13 2018, 5:29 PM
Another day, another chance for market watchers and pundits of all types to make mountains out of Turkish molehills. Yes, the financial crisis in Tur...
Mon, Aug 13 2018, 9:34 AM
Did anyone else have to sit through the drug addiction video (or was it a book?) in grade school (or was it middle school?) where the main character k...
Fri, Aug 10 2018, 5:25 PM
Tired of hearing about Turkey yet? This is what happens when fairly quiet markets are interrupted by a thunderous roar from an unexpected place. News...
Fri, Aug 10 2018, 10:08 AM
Turkey (the country, not the lunch meat) is the 17th biggest economy in the world in terms of GDP. That's roughly 20% bigger than the next closest co...
Thu, Aug 9 2018, 4:40 PM
Have you heard the one about the Turkish debt crisis? Things are pretty bad for Turkey and the currency is indeed in freefall, but until the charts d...
Thu, Aug 9 2018, 9:42 AM
In the short-term (past few weeks), the trend has not been our friend. After breaking above a narrow, sideways range, yields had been pushing higher ...
Wed, Aug 8 2018, 6:09 PM
This week continued in the fine tradition of of ultra-light summertime volume and liquidity, but today's contribution was a bit more worthwhile than t...
Wed, Aug 8 2018, 9:50 AM
After spending most of July in a narrow, sideways trend, bonds broke higher in yield and looked like they would begin a classic range-breakout sell-of...
Tue, Aug 7 2018, 3:54 PM
Bonds enjoyed a nice little winning streak beginning last Thursday. As of yesterday, it had carried 10yr Treasury yields below the important 2.95% te...
Tue, Aug 7 2018, 9:53 AM
I received an interesting question yesterday as to whether or not there was any significance in the fact that 25, 50, and 100 day moving averages are ...
Mon, Aug 6 2018, 5:22 PM
What do I mean when I say 'serendipitous' market movement? In general, this is just another way to say "that's the way the ball bounced, cookie crumbl...
Mon, Aug 6 2018, 9:34 AM
In terms of scheduled data and events, this week is much lighter than last. It will also be more susceptible to the effects of light liquidity as mar...
Fri, Aug 3 2018, 7:13 PM
Bond markets began the day in roughly unchanged territory as they geared up to digest any curveballs from the payrolls data. NFP came in weaker than ...
Fri, Aug 3 2018, 8:35 AM
Today brings the sometimes super important nonfarm payrolls data. On average, no other piece of economic data has had as much of an impact on bonds o...
Thu, Aug 2 2018, 4:32 PM
Right at 9:30am this morning, both stocks and bond yields began moving higher . A modest overnight rally in Treasuries quickly came under fire and f...
Thu, Aug 2 2018, 9:32 AM
While recent bond market trends haven't been fun for originators, they've at least been more interesting from a market-watching standpoint. Markets t...
Wed, Aug 1 2018, 4:51 PM
It's beginning to look and sound a lot like the Springtime when bond analysts were making their calls for the year's highest 10yr yields. Guesses ran...
Wed, Aug 1 2018, 2:16 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May June indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that...
Wed, Aug 1 2018, 8:19 AM
Japanese bond traders began selling right at the start of the overnight session. There wasn't a big, new monetary policy revelation, though the move ...
Tue, Jul 31 2018, 5:36 PM
Today ended up being all about bond markets reacting positively to last night's Bank of Japan (BOJ) announcement. In a nutshell, they just did one ...
Tue, Jul 31 2018, 9:48 AM
Over the past 2 weeks, there has been quite a lot of speculation on the effects of Japanese monetary policy communications on US Treasuries. I've m...
Mon, Jul 30 2018, 6:03 PM
For a week with so much on the calendar and so much at stake, today got things off to a fairly slow start. That's not entirely surprising, given th...
Mon, Jul 30 2018, 9:54 AM
This week is rare in terms of the combination of economic data, events, and other relevant goings-on. If someone asked me to rattle off a few of the ...
Fri, Jul 27 2018, 7:28 PM
The consensus for today's GDP reading among forecasters was for a big increase to 4.1% or 4.2% depending on who does your data aggregation. Either wa...
Fri, Jul 27 2018, 9:49 AM
GDP is already out this morning and it it's left bonds in slightly stronger territory. With these gains, the longer-term chart looks like 10s might ...
Thu, Jul 26 2018, 6:33 PM
Bonds were paralyzed during the overnight session--both in terms of outright trading levels and the yield curve. It could have been the ECB announc...
Thu, Jul 26 2018, 8:30 AM
I thought about making the headline something that pertained specifically to today's events. "Draghi, Durables, and Week's Last Treasury Auction" wou...
Wed, Jul 25 2018, 5:24 PM
Bonds began the day in modestly stronger territory and seemed content to hand onto those gains indefinitely. Up until the last 90 minutes of tradin...
Wed, Jul 25 2018, 9:45 AM
Yesterday brought an early interruption to the range breakout that began late last week. Such bounces merit caution as they often simply act as a sh...
Tue, Jul 24 2018, 6:15 PM
Today was one of those eerily calm days that we occasionally see plopped right where we'd expect to see something more exciting. And in a way, that i...
Tue, Jul 24 2018, 9:18 AM
In putting together today's chart, I found my fingers involuntarily typing the phrase "post-range-bound momentum spike." It made perfect sense in m...
Mon, Jul 23 2018, 4:30 PM
Super narrow consolidation patterns in bonds are always super boring until they're not. It looked like things may have been getting exciting as ear...
Mon, Jul 23 2018, 9:18 AM
Not to be confused with a band on the run, bonds find themselves in something of a similar predicament to the namesake of McCartney's post-Beatles sin...
Fri, Jul 20 2018, 6:45 PM
Undoubtedly, yesterday's bond trading sent a clear message that a technical ceiling near 2.88% was met with strong defense from traders who bought b...
Fri, Jul 20 2018, 9:27 AM
10yr yields attempted to break above their prevailing range yesterday. As we discussed in the Day Ahead, it takes more than just an intraday move abo...
Thu, Jul 19 2018, 4:02 PM
If you are an MBS Live member, today's recap has already been written in this update and in The Huddle. Non-MBS Live members can get a pretty solid i...
Thu, Jul 19 2018, 9:18 AM
This primer (and this one, and this one) will be useful for digesting the following, if you haven't read it before.
For those paying any sort of at...
Wed, Jul 18 2018, 5:44 PM
After holding the same sideways range since June 27th, 10yr Treasury yields finally knocked on the 2.88+ ceiling for the 2nd time (the previous atte...
Wed, Jul 18 2018, 9:46 AM
Fed Chair Powell will deliver round 2 of his congressional testimony today, this time at the House FSOC (yesterday was with the Senate Banking Committ...
Tue, Jul 17 2018, 5:18 PM
Fed Chair Powell fielded questions from the Senate Banking Committee today as a part of the 2-day semi-annual congressional testimony often referred...
Tue, Jul 17 2018, 9:47 AM
Fed Chair Powell begins 2 days of semi annual congressional testimony today with the Senate Banking Committee at 10am. In recent years, this testimon...
Mon, Jul 16 2018, 5:52 PM
Summertime Mondays are notorious for light volume and seemingly random trading. Today was a slightly more active than normal in that regard, largely ...
Mon, Jul 16 2018, 9:05 AM
This is the off-season for bonds, but they still have to show up for the game every day. The coaching staff (aka the traders turning the cogs of the ...
Fri, Jul 13 2018, 4:23 PM
Before any discussion about market movement in July, we have to set the stage with some disclaimer about "slow summertime trading." That was the su...
Fri, Jul 13 2018, 10:20 AM
I know I made a Looney Tunes reference last week, but another one is in order. For those that aren't familiar, Yosemite Sam is stranded on a desert i...
Thu, Jul 12 2018, 4:59 PM
Welcome to summertime in the bond market, where each day is narrower than the last! The same can be said for the past 2 weeks and the past several mo...
Thu, Jul 12 2018, 2:43 PM
In a fairly rare turn of events, Fed Chair Powell gave a rather lengthy radio interview with Marketplace's Kai Ryssdal. Here's a rather lengthy trans...
Thu, Jul 12 2018, 9:51 AM
This morning's key data release is already out and it's already proven to be a dud (MBS Live members can read the update HERE). So we'll head to hi...
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