Fri, Aug 31 2018, 10:28 AM
There are a few different ways to measure volatility in the bond market, but one of the simplest is via the average daily trading range. That particu...
Thu, Aug 30 2018, 4:22 PM
While we can't really avoid talking about "the range" recently (roughly 2.80 to 2.90 in terms of 10yr Treasury yields), we can at least talk about i...
Thu, Aug 30 2018, 8:52 AM
Remember the flat, boring range between 2.8 and 2.9? Or perhaps you prefer the slightly stricter version between 2.82 and 2.88? That's the range that...
Wed, Aug 29 2018, 6:08 PM
Today ended up being the most uneventful day of the week in terms of outright volatility. In other words, bonds didn't cover as much ground as they d...
Wed, Aug 29 2018, 8:45 AM
GDP is released 3 times over 3 months beginning on the month that follows the quarter in question. In other words, Q2 (April-June) is first reported ...
Tue, Aug 28 2018, 5:23 PM
Yesterday's bond market weakness introduced some risk of a technical shift back toward higher yields. Specifically, fast and slow stochastics (shor...
Tue, Aug 28 2018, 9:54 AM
Late June through late July saw 10yr yields trade in the 'same old range' with lows centered on 2.81 and highs on 2.89. That range was broken at the ...
Mon, Aug 27 2018, 5:41 PM
It was a straightforward trading day today. Overnight weakness came courtesy of stronger econ data in Germany and the resulting sell-off in Europea...
Mon, Aug 27 2018, 9:20 AM
Even though quite a few kids are going back to school today, there's still one week of Summer remaining for the bond market. Labor Day (this upcoming...
Fri, Aug 24 2018, 8:25 PM
If you knew what to look for, today's comments from Fed Chair Powell erred on the side of dovishness--that is, they were rate-friendly. They were als...
Fri, Aug 24 2018, 9:30 AM
Dear Kansas City Fed,
Thank you for hosting another year of the storied Jackson Hole Symposium. I'm not here to vent about the fact that you cou...
Thu, Aug 23 2018, 5:30 PM
Not since the eerie holiday-inspired silence of December 22nd 2017 have bonds put in as narrow of a trading day as they did today. 10yr yields didn't...
Thu, Aug 23 2018, 9:09 AM
Is today the day we break the "key technical level" at 2.82? Spoiler alert: you shouldn't care and it doesn't matter . I'm sorry if this is disillus...
Wed, Aug 22 2018, 4:07 PM
Today's gains are primarily a factor of the bond market's response to yesterday's Cohen headlines (plea deal regarding campaign finance violations)....
Wed, Aug 22 2018, 9:25 AM
News regarding Cohen's plea deal came out right as futures markets were closing yesterday. There were only 15-20 minutes for a reaction, and we wou...
Tue, Aug 21 2018, 4:47 PM
The S&P 500 hit a record intraday high today (just over 2873.22 compared to the previous high of 2872.87). In other words, it wasn't a triumphant s...
Tue, Aug 21 2018, 8:56 AM
With yields touching the lowest levels in more than a month yesterday, there are two distinct cases to be made for the path ahead. In the more pessi...
Mon, Aug 20 2018, 5:31 PM
When it comes to financial markets, the definition for "jawboning" is a bit looser than normal as it also encompasses market movement that occurs simp...
Mon, Aug 20 2018, 9:12 AM
The frustrating thing about weeks that are normally vacation-heavy is that the resulting lack of volume and liquidity can leave bonds in a position to...
Fri, Aug 17 2018, 5:30 PM
10yr yields ended the week at almost exactly where they began. With the exception of Tuesday, bonds closed within 1.5bps of each other on the other 4...
Fri, Aug 17 2018, 10:22 AM
It may end up being a slow, summertime Friday with the news cycle calming down relative to earlier in the week, not to mention the fact that its peak ...
Thu, Aug 16 2018, 5:13 PM
Treasuries were weaker at the start of the overnight session as renewed US/China trade negotiations propelled global equities markets higher. The h...
Thu, Aug 16 2018, 10:34 AM
I found myself driving in the truck for more than an hour yesterday evening--long enough to hear the news cycle repeated several times. During that t...
Wed, Aug 15 2018, 4:01 PM
Headlines continue overstating the connection between US market movements and the financial drama in Turkey. Today was especially damaging to the cas...
Wed, Aug 15 2018, 9:45 AM
From New York, traders have been looking east for at least some level of inspiration from Turkish market volatility. As we've discussed exhaustively,...
Tue, Aug 14 2018, 4:30 PM
Bonds began the day in moderately weaker territory as Turkish tensions eased overnight. That certainly wasn't the only game in town as far as market ...
Tue, Aug 14 2018, 9:24 AM
Turkish Lira bounced in the overnight session--not in any epic fashion, but enough to result in a bit of spillover for stocks/bonds. 10yr yields rose...
Mon, Aug 13 2018, 5:29 PM
Another day, another chance for market watchers and pundits of all types to make mountains out of Turkish molehills. Yes, the financial crisis in Tur...
Mon, Aug 13 2018, 9:34 AM
Did anyone else have to sit through the drug addiction video (or was it a book?) in grade school (or was it middle school?) where the main character k...
Fri, Aug 10 2018, 5:25 PM
Tired of hearing about Turkey yet? This is what happens when fairly quiet markets are interrupted by a thunderous roar from an unexpected place. News...
Fri, Aug 10 2018, 10:08 AM
Turkey (the country, not the lunch meat) is the 17th biggest economy in the world in terms of GDP. That's roughly 20% bigger than the next closest co...
Thu, Aug 9 2018, 4:40 PM
Have you heard the one about the Turkish debt crisis? Things are pretty bad for Turkey and the currency is indeed in freefall, but until the charts d...
Thu, Aug 9 2018, 9:42 AM
In the short-term (past few weeks), the trend has not been our friend. After breaking above a narrow, sideways range, yields had been pushing higher ...
Wed, Aug 8 2018, 6:09 PM
This week continued in the fine tradition of of ultra-light summertime volume and liquidity, but today's contribution was a bit more worthwhile than t...
Wed, Aug 8 2018, 9:50 AM
After spending most of July in a narrow, sideways trend, bonds broke higher in yield and looked like they would begin a classic range-breakout sell-of...
Tue, Aug 7 2018, 3:54 PM
Bonds enjoyed a nice little winning streak beginning last Thursday. As of yesterday, it had carried 10yr Treasury yields below the important 2.95% te...
Tue, Aug 7 2018, 9:53 AM
I received an interesting question yesterday as to whether or not there was any significance in the fact that 25, 50, and 100 day moving averages are ...
Mon, Aug 6 2018, 5:22 PM
What do I mean when I say 'serendipitous' market movement? In general, this is just another way to say "that's the way the ball bounced, cookie crumbl...
Mon, Aug 6 2018, 9:34 AM
In terms of scheduled data and events, this week is much lighter than last. It will also be more susceptible to the effects of light liquidity as mar...
Fri, Aug 3 2018, 7:13 PM
Bond markets began the day in roughly unchanged territory as they geared up to digest any curveballs from the payrolls data. NFP came in weaker than ...
Fri, Aug 3 2018, 8:35 AM
Today brings the sometimes super important nonfarm payrolls data. On average, no other piece of economic data has had as much of an impact on bonds o...
Thu, Aug 2 2018, 4:32 PM
Right at 9:30am this morning, both stocks and bond yields began moving higher . A modest overnight rally in Treasuries quickly came under fire and f...
Thu, Aug 2 2018, 9:32 AM
While recent bond market trends haven't been fun for originators, they've at least been more interesting from a market-watching standpoint. Markets t...
Wed, Aug 1 2018, 4:51 PM
It's beginning to look and sound a lot like the Springtime when bond analysts were making their calls for the year's highest 10yr yields. Guesses ran...
Wed, Aug 1 2018, 2:16 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May June indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that...
Wed, Aug 1 2018, 8:19 AM
Japanese bond traders began selling right at the start of the overnight session. There wasn't a big, new monetary policy revelation, though the move ...
Tue, Jul 31 2018, 5:36 PM
Today ended up being all about bond markets reacting positively to last night's Bank of Japan (BOJ) announcement. In a nutshell, they just did one ...
Tue, Jul 31 2018, 9:48 AM
Over the past 2 weeks, there has been quite a lot of speculation on the effects of Japanese monetary policy communications on US Treasuries. I've m...
Mon, Jul 30 2018, 6:03 PM
For a week with so much on the calendar and so much at stake, today got things off to a fairly slow start. That's not entirely surprising, given th...
Mon, Jul 30 2018, 9:54 AM
This week is rare in terms of the combination of economic data, events, and other relevant goings-on. If someone asked me to rattle off a few of the ...
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