Tue, Jun 5 2018, 9:49 AM
The most notable feature of the current trading week continues to be its lack of notable features . There isn't much data on tap (ISM Non-Manufactur...
Mon, Jun 4 2018, 5:29 PM
MBS Live folks don't need to be reminded that red is not our favorite color. It connotes bond market losses on the MBS Live dashboard (and losses...
Mon, Jun 4 2018, 10:08 AM
Where were you 3 weeks ago when we were just beginning to discuss Italian political risks? I don't remember where I was, but I definitely know where ...
Fri, Jun 1 2018, 9:29 PM
The beginning of this holiday-shortened week was fairly exciting. It was the first major "opening gap" (yields/prices opening a day well into territo...
Fri, Jun 1 2018, 8:26 AM
The timing and nature of yesterday's Italian headlines created a fair amount of risk for bond markets today. As we discussed yesterday (in the Hudd...
Thu, May 31 2018, 5:08 PM
Today brought resolution (probably) for a problem that had been greatly benefiting bonds and rates. Earlier this week, the prospect of snap electio...
Thu, May 31 2018, 9:09 AM
Even after yesterday's weakness, bond markets remained in much stronger territory on the week due to the size of Tuesday's move. This is a fairly typ...
Wed, May 30 2018, 6:09 PM
Back in 2011/2012, EU-related fears had more to do with certain countries being unable to pay their debt and/or general systemic risk relating to Gr...
Wed, May 30 2018, 8:44 AM
Today begins with yesterday's Italy-inspired mega rally under heavy fire. Compared to last Friday's closing levels, roughly half of the overall gains...
Tue, May 29 2018, 9:01 AM
Let's use US politics and Congress to help us understand Italian politics. Imagine that Libertarians and Independents actually won enough seats to co...
Fri, May 25 2018, 5:22 PM
When you pay the sort of price we paid last week (in terms of rates surging to 7-year highs), you expect to get something reasonably nice in return....
Fri, May 25 2018, 9:33 AM
If you'd just had your worst week in 7 years, it's always nice if the next could be markedly different. That's the case for bond markets this week, a...
Thu, May 24 2018, 4:29 PM
Yesterday was an important one for anyone hoping NOT to see the bond market completely give up hope in the fight against higher rates. To be fair, ...
Thu, May 24 2018, 9:35 AM
One short week after hitting the worst levels in nearly 7 years there's suddenly a semblance of hope again for bonds. It was one thing to see last ...
Wed, May 23 2018, 4:41 PM
Bonds surged to significantly stronger levels in the presence of the Fed Minutes today. Any time we see strong gains on a day with a Fed release, c...
Wed, May 23 2018, 9:05 AM
I woke up this morning to an automated alert from MBS Live letting me know I'd need to hustle to the desk and explain whatever it was that caused the ...
Tue, May 22 2018, 4:52 PM
For the 2nd straight day , trading levels in bond markets held inside a narrow range--far narrower than that seen on any given day last week, let alo...
Tue, May 22 2018, 9:21 AM
Today begins the 3rd day where US Treasuries aren't imploding after hitting 7 year highs last Thursday. At this point, we might consider the resilien...
Mon, May 21 2018, 4:56 PM
There were no significant economic reports or events today, and only a few newsworthy developments. The biggest of these also happened the earliest (...
Mon, May 21 2018, 9:54 AM
Much like last week, this week's event calendar is limited in terms of top tier data and events, but nonetheless carries the potential for technical m...
Fri, May 18 2018, 4:43 PM
Bonds rallied today for the first time all week, and fairly well at that! 10yr yields fell more than 5bps and Fannie 3.5 MBS rose nearly 3/8ths of ...
Fri, May 18 2018, 9:21 AM
The notion of "positions" is extremely important to the bond market (and to any market for that matter). At the most basic level, a LONG position s...
Thu, May 17 2018, 5:40 PM
Today was the calmest of the past 3 days of craziness, although the higher-than-average volume suggests things are still happening behind the scenes. ...
Thu, May 17 2018, 10:39 AM
It's been pretty doomy and gloomy around here so far this week, what with the spike to the highest 10yr yields in nearly 7 years and what not. So how...
Wed, May 16 2018, 6:39 PM
If you happened to be out of the office yesterday, 10yr yields finally broke out of their most recent consolidation pattern and moved quickly to the h...
Wed, May 16 2018, 9:30 AM
Today is starting out with just a hint of green on the screens. While that's certainly much better than the alternative (some historical examples see...
Tue, May 15 2018, 5:06 PM
July 8, 2011. That's how far you'd have to go back to see higher 10yr yields than we saw today. At their worst, they were at 3.0945% . At the clos...
Tue, May 15 2018, 9:51 AM
I hate clickbait with a passion. Today's title might sound like clickbait. Do I really expect you to believe that there have only been 4 days like t...
Mon, May 14 2018, 4:29 PM
Low volume and lighter-than-normal liquidity left US bond markets more impressionable than normal today. Or perhaps it IS normal given that it's a ...
Mon, May 14 2018, 9:19 AM
This week's economic calendar is generally on the quiet side with Retail Sales being the only upper-echelon report in terms of its potential impact ...
Fri, May 11 2018, 6:47 PM
I'm going to write at you from an analytical standpoint for a moment. Sorry, I just have to vent. Today was completely forgettable. In fact, the pa...
Fri, May 11 2018, 8:34 AM
Are rates in the process of confirming a top or are they simply in some sort of consolidation period before continuing higher to the scarier level...
Thu, May 10 2018, 4:32 PM
With two big-ticket events on tap for bond markets today, there was always a chance that they'd go our way and that we'd see some decent gains as a ...
Thu, May 10 2018, 9:40 AM
Today begins with a modestly weaker CPI (consumer price index) report generating an impressive surge in volume. In fact, the volume in the minute fol...
Wed, May 9 2018, 7:11 PM
Today's key event for bonds was the 10yr Treasury auction because it served as an acid test for investor demand amid relatively uncertain times. Un...
Wed, May 9 2018, 9:36 AM
Most of April had been bad for bonds. It was like the beginning of yet another storm in a series that had battered the fixed-income coastline since l...
Tue, May 8 2018, 5:30 PM
2.95% in 10yr Treasury yields had become a bit of a battleground last week. Even in the week prior, there were two big bounces there (3 if you coun...
Tue, May 8 2018, 9:16 AM
Yesterday's recap labeled the trading day as an official 3rd day of the weekend due to an absence of volume or volatility. The underlying culprit (ap...
Mon, May 7 2018, 4:36 PM
This happens from time to time on Mondays. Either due to a holiday overseas or some other distraction, a data-free Monday ends up being a complete du...
Mon, May 7 2018, 9:33 AM
Longer-term rates have been in a bit of a holding pattern after deciding not to smash through the highest levels in more than 4 years at the end of Ap...
Fri, May 4 2018, 7:02 PM
After the week's biggest dose of intraday volatility this morning, rates ended up almost perfectly unchanged. Charts suggest an uncommonly high amo...
Fri, May 4 2018, 9:46 AM
With modest gains intact this morning (even after NFP), we're finally in a position to say that all hope may not officially be lost for bonds. That w...
Thu, May 3 2018, 4:38 PM
With the 2.95% level in 10yr yields being the most important pivot point for bonds at the moment, drifting sideways to close out the day around 2.94...
Thu, May 3 2018, 8:54 AM
There has been at least some amount of correlation between stocks and bond yields in 2018 inasmuch as the major lows for stocks in Feb and April coi...
Wed, May 2 2018, 4:27 PM
We'll give Friday a pass because it was technically still part of the 2-day correction leading back from the 4-year highs in the 10yr Treasury yield s...
Wed, May 2 2018, 2:02 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January March indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and t...
Wed, May 2 2018, 9:09 AM
There's a fair amount on the calendar today from an objective standpoint. The 3 headliners are ADP Employment, the Treasury refunding announcement an...
Tue, May 1 2018, 5:10 PM
The Day Ahead discussed the year's previous closing high of 2.95% in 10yr yields. It hadn't come into play too terribly much until the past 3 session...
Tue, May 1 2018, 9:13 AM
2.95% was the closing high for 10yr yields back in late February. While we saw 10s move as low as 2.935 yesterday, that seemed to be a product of mon...
Mon, Apr 30 2018, 4:36 PM
April was a bummer of a month for the bond market. Actually, it was decent through the 11th, but it got ugly quickly after that--especially during th...
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