Thu, Jun 21 2018, 9:50 AM
By now, it's no great secret that pundits, analysts, and financial firm principals are pontificating on the next economic downturn. Guesses vary, b...
Wed, Jun 20 2018, 7:04 PM
Before the Italy drama picked up at the end of May, bonds were very much on the bad side of the fence. Italy quickly punted rates to the other side ...
Wed, Jun 20 2018, 10:06 AM
I talk quite a bit about the " long-term trend " or the "longer-term trend" these days. It most frequently comes up in some iteration of the followin...
Tue, Jun 19 2018, 4:15 PM
June began with yields plateauing after rising from the Italy-inspired lows of late May. 10yr yields managed to avoid breaking above 3% until last we...
Tue, Jun 19 2018, 8:57 AM
You're welcome! I knew if I lamented the slow and boring nature of the week ahead yesterday that I could trick the bond market into doing something ...
Mon, Jun 18 2018, 4:30 PM
These sorts of days (where nothing happens) happen. If you had to bet on a day of the week and a time of year to see them, Summertime Mondays would p...
Mon, Jun 18 2018, 9:16 AM
Post-Italian drama, bond yields rose for 2 straight weeks heading into last week's Fed and ECB announcements. They both proved friendly and the pos...
Fri, Jun 15 2018, 5:35 PM
Fresh fears of trade wars pushed stocks and bond yields lower in the overnight session as the White House promised another wave of tariff announcemen...
Fri, Jun 15 2018, 9:37 AM
Bond markets have their rally caps on after making it through both central bank announcements this week without suffering any crazy damage. In fact...
Thu, Jun 14 2018, 4:15 PM
We knew the ECB (European Central Bank) was going to have to address its bond buying program soon, because it expires after September. Several speake...
Thu, Jun 14 2018, 9:00 AM
Today's domestic session begins with a positive reaction to the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement. The ECB broke from tradition by dropping ...
Wed, Jun 13 2018, 5:52 PM
In one sentence, today's Fed rate forecasts pushed bonds into weaker territory at 2pm and Jerome Powell's press conference helped to recover most of...
Wed, Jun 13 2018, 2:05 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March May indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that ...
Wed, Jun 13 2018, 9:09 AM
"The dots" refer to the Fed's periodically updated economic projections.
"Periodically, " in this case, means 4 times a year out of the 8 annual ...
Tue, Jun 12 2018, 5:11 PM
Today turned out to be a dud, thanks to a completely uneventful CPI reading as well as a right-down-the-middle 30yr bond auction. Neither of these ...
Tue, Jun 12 2018, 9:46 AM
Bonds are starting the day in a slightly weaker stance yet again. While we managed to come back from a weaker start yesterday, it's worth checking in...
Mon, Jun 11 2018, 4:17 PM
History suggests that Fed/ECB meetings in June are more than up to the task of causing significant volatility in bond markets. It also suggests tha...
Mon, Jun 11 2018, 9:22 AM
Bond markets have weathered the storm of Italian political drama, which created the bulk of volatility over the past 3 weeks. They've considered the ...
Fri, Jun 8 2018, 4:56 PM
What a quiet and boring trading session it was! Well, to be fair, there's still half an hour left as I type this, but most bond market participants m...
Fri, Jun 8 2018, 9:06 AM
The day is young, but the fact that we're starting out with much of yesterday's "flash" rally intact means that new doors are opening for bonds.
...
Thu, Jun 7 2018, 5:01 PM
Today ended up being all about the early afternoon "flash crash" in bond yields (from 2.94 to 2.884% in fairly short order). While they're not common...
Thu, Jun 7 2018, 9:34 AM
Stop me if you've heard this one before. Here's a formula for one of the ways bond markets move: Rates fall based on a particular risky eventuality. ...
Wed, Jun 6 2018, 5:32 PM
Bonds were weaker right from the start today as the overnight session saw several members of the European Central Bank comment on tapering prospects...
Wed, Jun 6 2018, 9:53 AM
I owe you an apology. I caused a bit of a sell-off in bond markets today. It all started yesterday afternoon when I called attention to the fact tha...
Tue, Jun 5 2018, 5:23 PM
With European drama subsiding heading into this week and with yesterday seeing a logical move toward weaker levels, it was fair to be worried about mo...
Tue, Jun 5 2018, 9:49 AM
The most notable feature of the current trading week continues to be its lack of notable features . There isn't much data on tap (ISM Non-Manufactur...
Mon, Jun 4 2018, 5:29 PM
MBS Live folks don't need to be reminded that red is not our favorite color. It connotes bond market losses on the MBS Live dashboard (and losses...
Mon, Jun 4 2018, 10:08 AM
Where were you 3 weeks ago when we were just beginning to discuss Italian political risks? I don't remember where I was, but I definitely know where ...
Fri, Jun 1 2018, 9:29 PM
The beginning of this holiday-shortened week was fairly exciting. It was the first major "opening gap" (yields/prices opening a day well into territo...
Fri, Jun 1 2018, 8:26 AM
The timing and nature of yesterday's Italian headlines created a fair amount of risk for bond markets today. As we discussed yesterday (in the Hudd...
Thu, May 31 2018, 5:08 PM
Today brought resolution (probably) for a problem that had been greatly benefiting bonds and rates. Earlier this week, the prospect of snap electio...
Thu, May 31 2018, 9:09 AM
Even after yesterday's weakness, bond markets remained in much stronger territory on the week due to the size of Tuesday's move. This is a fairly typ...
Wed, May 30 2018, 6:09 PM
Back in 2011/2012, EU-related fears had more to do with certain countries being unable to pay their debt and/or general systemic risk relating to Gr...
Wed, May 30 2018, 8:44 AM
Today begins with yesterday's Italy-inspired mega rally under heavy fire. Compared to last Friday's closing levels, roughly half of the overall gains...
Tue, May 29 2018, 9:01 AM
Let's use US politics and Congress to help us understand Italian politics. Imagine that Libertarians and Independents actually won enough seats to co...
Fri, May 25 2018, 5:22 PM
When you pay the sort of price we paid last week (in terms of rates surging to 7-year highs), you expect to get something reasonably nice in return....
Fri, May 25 2018, 9:33 AM
If you'd just had your worst week in 7 years, it's always nice if the next could be markedly different. That's the case for bond markets this week, a...
Thu, May 24 2018, 4:29 PM
Yesterday was an important one for anyone hoping NOT to see the bond market completely give up hope in the fight against higher rates. To be fair, ...
Thu, May 24 2018, 9:35 AM
One short week after hitting the worst levels in nearly 7 years there's suddenly a semblance of hope again for bonds. It was one thing to see last ...
Wed, May 23 2018, 4:41 PM
Bonds surged to significantly stronger levels in the presence of the Fed Minutes today. Any time we see strong gains on a day with a Fed release, c...
Wed, May 23 2018, 9:05 AM
I woke up this morning to an automated alert from MBS Live letting me know I'd need to hustle to the desk and explain whatever it was that caused the ...
Tue, May 22 2018, 4:52 PM
For the 2nd straight day , trading levels in bond markets held inside a narrow range--far narrower than that seen on any given day last week, let alo...
Tue, May 22 2018, 9:21 AM
Today begins the 3rd day where US Treasuries aren't imploding after hitting 7 year highs last Thursday. At this point, we might consider the resilien...
Mon, May 21 2018, 4:56 PM
There were no significant economic reports or events today, and only a few newsworthy developments. The biggest of these also happened the earliest (...
Mon, May 21 2018, 9:54 AM
Much like last week, this week's event calendar is limited in terms of top tier data and events, but nonetheless carries the potential for technical m...
Fri, May 18 2018, 4:43 PM
Bonds rallied today for the first time all week, and fairly well at that! 10yr yields fell more than 5bps and Fannie 3.5 MBS rose nearly 3/8ths of ...
Fri, May 18 2018, 9:21 AM
The notion of "positions" is extremely important to the bond market (and to any market for that matter). At the most basic level, a LONG position s...
Thu, May 17 2018, 5:40 PM
Today was the calmest of the past 3 days of craziness, although the higher-than-average volume suggests things are still happening behind the scenes. ...
Thu, May 17 2018, 10:39 AM
It's been pretty doomy and gloomy around here so far this week, what with the spike to the highest 10yr yields in nearly 7 years and what not. So how...
Wed, May 16 2018, 6:39 PM
If you happened to be out of the office yesterday, 10yr yields finally broke out of their most recent consolidation pattern and moved quickly to the h...
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