Wed, Jul 11 2018, 5:59 PM
Today was the most active trading day of the week--something that looked destined to be the case considering markets began gyrating right at the sta...
Wed, Jul 11 2018, 9:50 AM
The first two days of the week were largely spent lamenting the slow and inconsequential nature of summertime trading in the bonds market. At least t...
Tue, Jul 10 2018, 4:37 PM
If we look solely at the US trading hours, yesterday and today form a nearly perfect 2-day trend just slightly higher in rate. Fannie 4.0 MBS prices ...
Tue, Jul 10 2018, 9:14 AM
Yesterday saw the lightest Treasury volume of any full trading day so far this year. That's no great surprise in July, as this tends to be the month ...
Mon, Jul 9 2018, 5:32 PM
Bonds were moderately weaker today with Treasuries outpacing MBS in that regard. 10yr yields had fallen just over 3bps before the start of domestic...
Mon, Jul 9 2018, 9:19 AM
Last week was was a bit lacking in terms of trading days due to the holiday market closure, but it made up for that with bigger-ticket data and events...
Fri, Jul 6 2018, 7:35 PM
Bonds and mostly stocks were braced for something fairly austere heading into this morning's hard launch of new tariffs. This accounted for a clearl...
Fri, Jul 6 2018, 8:12 AM
As investors have sought a safe haven from trade-related risks, bonds have benefited more than they otherwise might have and stocks have been restrain...
Thu, Jul 5 2018, 9:27 AM
Heading into the day and a half holiday break, bonds had been consolidating in a narrower range centered on 2.85% in terms of 10yr yields. Now, as bo...
Tue, Jul 3 2018, 2:39 PM
Yesterday's headline was "strong start; weak finish." Today's is the opposite (obviously). In both cases, geopolitical issues played a role in ove...
Tue, Jul 3 2018, 9:05 AM
If bond markets had a nice month-end buying spree at the end of June, it happened on the 27th. The next two days saw moderate weakness . Yesterday'...
Mon, Jul 2 2018, 5:33 PM
Bonds started out in stronger territory today, thanks to geopolitical risks stemming from European immigration issues. When domestic traders got in f...
Mon, Jul 2 2018, 10:05 AM
The 4th of July, like a handful of other bond market holidays, doesn't care what day of week the 4th falls on. That makes it one of the very times ea...
Fri, Jun 29 2018, 6:49 PM
On 2 occasions this week, bonds set closing yield lows for the month. Moreover, if we strike the craziest day from late May from the record (since It...
Fri, Jun 29 2018, 9:51 AM
With each passing day this week, bonds do more to prove that the low yields achieved during the Italian panic were more than the mere byproduct of a s...
Thu, Jun 28 2018, 5:12 PM
Referring to today as "modestly" weaker is a debatable choice. On the one hand, trading levels hit the 3pm close in modestly weaker territory. No ar...
Wed, Jun 27 2018, 4:49 PM
The last time trading levels in bond markets were this strong at the close of business, it was on the most dire day of the Italian political drama--th...
Wed, Jun 27 2018, 9:35 AM
Monty Python isn't for everyone, but the old TV series is chock full of life lessons and random knowledge that really helps round out one's trivia pro...
Tue, Jun 26 2018, 5:11 PM
Bonds traded almost exactly the same range as they did yesterday. This time around, volumes were 33% lower, bringing them in line with recent lows ...
Tue, Jun 26 2018, 9:56 AM
Technical analysis is an important ingredient in most market-watching recipes--at least when it comes to those who are compelled to watch markets most...
Mon, Jun 25 2018, 4:53 PM
So much for the stock lever! Though, to be fair to conventional wisdom , falling stock prices definitely did help bond yields move lower this mornin...
Mon, Jun 25 2018, 9:14 AM
Most financial metrics are almost always either MOVING or CONSOLIDATING . Those are pretty broad terms--especially when it comes to watching the m...
Fri, Jun 22 2018, 7:24 PM
Monday was the slowest day of the year in terms of volume. Volatility was also very muted by the time US markets fired up for the day. But here come...
Fri, Jun 22 2018, 9:20 AM
When a single, clearly-delineated event was responsible for 30bps of movement in 10yr yields in the matter of a few days, it's hard to get too worked ...
Thu, Jun 21 2018, 5:31 PM
Grandparents will always have at least a few stories about "the way things used to be." Those old ways may seem inefficient, strange, wonderful , or...
Thu, Jun 21 2018, 9:50 AM
By now, it's no great secret that pundits, analysts, and financial firm principals are pontificating on the next economic downturn. Guesses vary, b...
Wed, Jun 20 2018, 7:04 PM
Before the Italy drama picked up at the end of May, bonds were very much on the bad side of the fence. Italy quickly punted rates to the other side ...
Wed, Jun 20 2018, 10:06 AM
I talk quite a bit about the " long-term trend " or the "longer-term trend" these days. It most frequently comes up in some iteration of the followin...
Tue, Jun 19 2018, 4:15 PM
June began with yields plateauing after rising from the Italy-inspired lows of late May. 10yr yields managed to avoid breaking above 3% until last we...
Tue, Jun 19 2018, 8:57 AM
You're welcome! I knew if I lamented the slow and boring nature of the week ahead yesterday that I could trick the bond market into doing something ...
Mon, Jun 18 2018, 4:30 PM
These sorts of days (where nothing happens) happen. If you had to bet on a day of the week and a time of year to see them, Summertime Mondays would p...
Mon, Jun 18 2018, 9:16 AM
Post-Italian drama, bond yields rose for 2 straight weeks heading into last week's Fed and ECB announcements. They both proved friendly and the pos...
Fri, Jun 15 2018, 5:35 PM
Fresh fears of trade wars pushed stocks and bond yields lower in the overnight session as the White House promised another wave of tariff announcemen...
Fri, Jun 15 2018, 9:37 AM
Bond markets have their rally caps on after making it through both central bank announcements this week without suffering any crazy damage. In fact...
Thu, Jun 14 2018, 4:15 PM
We knew the ECB (European Central Bank) was going to have to address its bond buying program soon, because it expires after September. Several speake...
Thu, Jun 14 2018, 9:00 AM
Today's domestic session begins with a positive reaction to the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement. The ECB broke from tradition by dropping ...
Wed, Jun 13 2018, 5:52 PM
In one sentence, today's Fed rate forecasts pushed bonds into weaker territory at 2pm and Jerome Powell's press conference helped to recover most of...
Wed, Jun 13 2018, 2:05 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March May indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that ...
Wed, Jun 13 2018, 9:09 AM
"The dots" refer to the Fed's periodically updated economic projections.
"Periodically, " in this case, means 4 times a year out of the 8 annual ...
Tue, Jun 12 2018, 5:11 PM
Today turned out to be a dud, thanks to a completely uneventful CPI reading as well as a right-down-the-middle 30yr bond auction. Neither of these ...
Tue, Jun 12 2018, 9:46 AM
Bonds are starting the day in a slightly weaker stance yet again. While we managed to come back from a weaker start yesterday, it's worth checking in...
Mon, Jun 11 2018, 4:17 PM
History suggests that Fed/ECB meetings in June are more than up to the task of causing significant volatility in bond markets. It also suggests tha...
Mon, Jun 11 2018, 9:22 AM
Bond markets have weathered the storm of Italian political drama, which created the bulk of volatility over the past 3 weeks. They've considered the ...
Fri, Jun 8 2018, 4:56 PM
What a quiet and boring trading session it was! Well, to be fair, there's still half an hour left as I type this, but most bond market participants m...
Fri, Jun 8 2018, 9:06 AM
The day is young, but the fact that we're starting out with much of yesterday's "flash" rally intact means that new doors are opening for bonds.
...
Thu, Jun 7 2018, 5:01 PM
Today ended up being all about the early afternoon "flash crash" in bond yields (from 2.94 to 2.884% in fairly short order). While they're not common...
Thu, Jun 7 2018, 9:34 AM
Stop me if you've heard this one before. Here's a formula for one of the ways bond markets move: Rates fall based on a particular risky eventuality. ...
Wed, Jun 6 2018, 5:32 PM
Bonds were weaker right from the start today as the overnight session saw several members of the European Central Bank comment on tapering prospects...
Wed, Jun 6 2018, 9:53 AM
I owe you an apology. I caused a bit of a sell-off in bond markets today. It all started yesterday afternoon when I called attention to the fact tha...
Tue, Jun 5 2018, 5:23 PM
With European drama subsiding heading into this week and with yesterday seeing a logical move toward weaker levels, it was fair to be worried about mo...
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