Fri, Jul 27 2018, 7:28 PM
The consensus for today's GDP reading among forecasters was for a big increase to 4.1% or 4.2% depending on who does your data aggregation. Either wa...
Fri, Jul 27 2018, 9:49 AM
GDP is already out this morning and it it's left bonds in slightly stronger territory. With these gains, the longer-term chart looks like 10s might ...
Thu, Jul 26 2018, 6:33 PM
Bonds were paralyzed during the overnight session--both in terms of outright trading levels and the yield curve. It could have been the ECB announc...
Thu, Jul 26 2018, 8:30 AM
I thought about making the headline something that pertained specifically to today's events. "Draghi, Durables, and Week's Last Treasury Auction" wou...
Wed, Jul 25 2018, 5:24 PM
Bonds began the day in modestly stronger territory and seemed content to hand onto those gains indefinitely. Up until the last 90 minutes of tradin...
Wed, Jul 25 2018, 9:45 AM
Yesterday brought an early interruption to the range breakout that began late last week. Such bounces merit caution as they often simply act as a sh...
Tue, Jul 24 2018, 6:15 PM
Today was one of those eerily calm days that we occasionally see plopped right where we'd expect to see something more exciting. And in a way, that i...
Tue, Jul 24 2018, 9:18 AM
In putting together today's chart, I found my fingers involuntarily typing the phrase "post-range-bound momentum spike." It made perfect sense in m...
Mon, Jul 23 2018, 4:30 PM
Super narrow consolidation patterns in bonds are always super boring until they're not. It looked like things may have been getting exciting as ear...
Mon, Jul 23 2018, 9:18 AM
Not to be confused with a band on the run, bonds find themselves in something of a similar predicament to the namesake of McCartney's post-Beatles sin...
Fri, Jul 20 2018, 6:45 PM
Undoubtedly, yesterday's bond trading sent a clear message that a technical ceiling near 2.88% was met with strong defense from traders who bought b...
Fri, Jul 20 2018, 9:27 AM
10yr yields attempted to break above their prevailing range yesterday. As we discussed in the Day Ahead, it takes more than just an intraday move abo...
Thu, Jul 19 2018, 4:02 PM
If you are an MBS Live member, today's recap has already been written in this update and in The Huddle. Non-MBS Live members can get a pretty solid i...
Thu, Jul 19 2018, 9:18 AM
This primer (and this one, and this one) will be useful for digesting the following, if you haven't read it before.
For those paying any sort of at...
Wed, Jul 18 2018, 5:44 PM
After holding the same sideways range since June 27th, 10yr Treasury yields finally knocked on the 2.88+ ceiling for the 2nd time (the previous atte...
Wed, Jul 18 2018, 9:46 AM
Fed Chair Powell will deliver round 2 of his congressional testimony today, this time at the House FSOC (yesterday was with the Senate Banking Committ...
Tue, Jul 17 2018, 5:18 PM
Fed Chair Powell fielded questions from the Senate Banking Committee today as a part of the 2-day semi-annual congressional testimony often referred...
Tue, Jul 17 2018, 9:47 AM
Fed Chair Powell begins 2 days of semi annual congressional testimony today with the Senate Banking Committee at 10am. In recent years, this testimon...
Mon, Jul 16 2018, 5:52 PM
Summertime Mondays are notorious for light volume and seemingly random trading. Today was a slightly more active than normal in that regard, largely ...
Mon, Jul 16 2018, 9:05 AM
This is the off-season for bonds, but they still have to show up for the game every day. The coaching staff (aka the traders turning the cogs of the ...
Fri, Jul 13 2018, 4:23 PM
Before any discussion about market movement in July, we have to set the stage with some disclaimer about "slow summertime trading." That was the su...
Fri, Jul 13 2018, 10:20 AM
I know I made a Looney Tunes reference last week, but another one is in order. For those that aren't familiar, Yosemite Sam is stranded on a desert i...
Thu, Jul 12 2018, 4:59 PM
Welcome to summertime in the bond market, where each day is narrower than the last! The same can be said for the past 2 weeks and the past several mo...
Thu, Jul 12 2018, 2:43 PM
In a fairly rare turn of events, Fed Chair Powell gave a rather lengthy radio interview with Marketplace's Kai Ryssdal. Here's a rather lengthy trans...
Thu, Jul 12 2018, 9:51 AM
This morning's key data release is already out and it's already proven to be a dud (MBS Live members can read the update HERE). So we'll head to hi...
Wed, Jul 11 2018, 5:59 PM
Today was the most active trading day of the week--something that looked destined to be the case considering markets began gyrating right at the sta...
Wed, Jul 11 2018, 9:50 AM
The first two days of the week were largely spent lamenting the slow and inconsequential nature of summertime trading in the bonds market. At least t...
Tue, Jul 10 2018, 4:37 PM
If we look solely at the US trading hours, yesterday and today form a nearly perfect 2-day trend just slightly higher in rate. Fannie 4.0 MBS prices ...
Tue, Jul 10 2018, 9:14 AM
Yesterday saw the lightest Treasury volume of any full trading day so far this year. That's no great surprise in July, as this tends to be the month ...
Mon, Jul 9 2018, 5:32 PM
Bonds were moderately weaker today with Treasuries outpacing MBS in that regard. 10yr yields had fallen just over 3bps before the start of domestic...
Mon, Jul 9 2018, 9:19 AM
Last week was was a bit lacking in terms of trading days due to the holiday market closure, but it made up for that with bigger-ticket data and events...
Fri, Jul 6 2018, 7:35 PM
Bonds and mostly stocks were braced for something fairly austere heading into this morning's hard launch of new tariffs. This accounted for a clearl...
Fri, Jul 6 2018, 8:12 AM
As investors have sought a safe haven from trade-related risks, bonds have benefited more than they otherwise might have and stocks have been restrain...
Thu, Jul 5 2018, 9:27 AM
Heading into the day and a half holiday break, bonds had been consolidating in a narrower range centered on 2.85% in terms of 10yr yields. Now, as bo...
Tue, Jul 3 2018, 2:39 PM
Yesterday's headline was "strong start; weak finish." Today's is the opposite (obviously). In both cases, geopolitical issues played a role in ove...
Tue, Jul 3 2018, 9:05 AM
If bond markets had a nice month-end buying spree at the end of June, it happened on the 27th. The next two days saw moderate weakness . Yesterday'...
Mon, Jul 2 2018, 5:33 PM
Bonds started out in stronger territory today, thanks to geopolitical risks stemming from European immigration issues. When domestic traders got in f...
Mon, Jul 2 2018, 10:05 AM
The 4th of July, like a handful of other bond market holidays, doesn't care what day of week the 4th falls on. That makes it one of the very times ea...
Fri, Jun 29 2018, 6:49 PM
On 2 occasions this week, bonds set closing yield lows for the month. Moreover, if we strike the craziest day from late May from the record (since It...
Fri, Jun 29 2018, 9:51 AM
With each passing day this week, bonds do more to prove that the low yields achieved during the Italian panic were more than the mere byproduct of a s...
Thu, Jun 28 2018, 5:12 PM
Referring to today as "modestly" weaker is a debatable choice. On the one hand, trading levels hit the 3pm close in modestly weaker territory. No ar...
Wed, Jun 27 2018, 4:49 PM
The last time trading levels in bond markets were this strong at the close of business, it was on the most dire day of the Italian political drama--th...
Wed, Jun 27 2018, 9:35 AM
Monty Python isn't for everyone, but the old TV series is chock full of life lessons and random knowledge that really helps round out one's trivia pro...
Tue, Jun 26 2018, 5:11 PM
Bonds traded almost exactly the same range as they did yesterday. This time around, volumes were 33% lower, bringing them in line with recent lows ...
Tue, Jun 26 2018, 9:56 AM
Technical analysis is an important ingredient in most market-watching recipes--at least when it comes to those who are compelled to watch markets most...
Mon, Jun 25 2018, 4:53 PM
So much for the stock lever! Though, to be fair to conventional wisdom , falling stock prices definitely did help bond yields move lower this mornin...
Mon, Jun 25 2018, 9:14 AM
Most financial metrics are almost always either MOVING or CONSOLIDATING . Those are pretty broad terms--especially when it comes to watching the m...
Fri, Jun 22 2018, 7:24 PM
Monday was the slowest day of the year in terms of volume. Volatility was also very muted by the time US markets fired up for the day. But here come...
Fri, Jun 22 2018, 9:20 AM
When a single, clearly-delineated event was responsible for 30bps of movement in 10yr yields in the matter of a few days, it's hard to get too worked ...
Thu, Jun 21 2018, 5:31 PM
Grandparents will always have at least a few stories about "the way things used to be." Those old ways may seem inefficient, strange, wonderful , or...
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