Mon, Apr 30 2018, 9:42 AM
This week brings several top tier economic reports as well as a Fed announcement. Combine that with today's month-end trading process, it makes for a...
Fri, Apr 27 2018, 6:53 PM
Bonds managed to scratch out a 2nd day of "recovery" leading back from the highest yields in more than 4 years seen on Wednesday. If you don't want t...
Fri, Apr 27 2018, 9:19 AM
The abrupt sell-off that began on 4/18 has been a bit frustrating from an analytical standpoint due to an absence of clearly-delineated motivations. ...
Thu, Apr 26 2018, 5:00 PM
In yesterday's recap, I mentioned that we were likely to see a token bounce on one of the next 3 days, but that it didn't necessarily guarantee furt...
Thu, Apr 26 2018, 10:07 AM
Today is shaping up to be the first push back against the current selling trend. By current, I mean the sharper, shorter trend of the past 7 days a...
Wed, Apr 25 2018, 4:32 PM
The recent rate drama continues unabated. Today was the 6th day of heavy selling in bond markets, bringing yields within striking distance of the 2...
Wed, Apr 25 2018, 9:33 AM
It will come as no surprise that I feel the level of discussion about 10yr yields being at 3% is overdone at best, and misguided at worst. Actually, ...
Tue, Apr 24 2018, 4:56 PM
After yesterday's somewhat hopeful leveling-off in bond yields, today served to drive home the point that hope is futile and only bad things are goi...
Tue, Apr 24 2018, 10:25 AM
You won't be able to avoid "3% 10yr Treasury Yields" this week. For starters, 10's have already hit 3.0033% today, but simply being close seems to ha...
Mon, Apr 23 2018, 5:16 PM
Have you ever seen someone randomly do something fairly awful/hurtful/aggressive, offer no explanation or apology, and then just leave the scene? Tha...
Mon, Apr 23 2018, 9:03 AM
I'm going to be surly this week about the way the bond market is covered in the financial media. Many of the articles to which I take exception will ...
Fri, Apr 20 2018, 5:14 PM
10yr yields hit the highest levels in more than 4 years this afternoon as bigger-picture selling pressure looks to be taking the reigns back from ...
Fri, Apr 20 2018, 9:20 AM
Rates are in the midst of a serious, threatening move higher. Yesterday brought additional confirmation of the end of the friendly Springtime conso...
Thu, Apr 19 2018, 5:03 PM
The break outside what we'll call the "Springtime Consolidation" for bonds started taking shape as early as last week. On Thursday and Friday, yiel...
Thu, Apr 19 2018, 9:51 AM
We've been increasingly wary about a potential break of the recent consolidation/rally trend --the one that saw yields move sideways to slightly stro...
Wed, Apr 18 2018, 4:49 PM
Today was a more serious version of the same sort of warning shots seen at the end of last week. At that time, bond yields rose to challenge an inter...
Wed, Apr 18 2018, 9:31 AM
The term "earnings season" gets thrown around quite a bit in financial news, but what is it, exactly? Simply put, it's a period of several weeks each...
Tue, Apr 17 2018, 4:47 PM
With elevated stock/bond correlation of late, it's always worth noting when things move in the opposite direction. Today was such a day, with stocks ...
Tue, Apr 17 2018, 10:16 AM
Much of the analysis of the past few days has focused on the downwardly sloped trend channel seen in today's first chart. This can be thought of as t...
Mon, Apr 16 2018, 5:20 PM
Bonds were quite a bit weaker in the overnight session. According to the average media report, this was in response to Syria-related developments. T...
Mon, Apr 16 2018, 10:10 AM
Another week, another change to savor the scent of red herring in the air. Have you ever smelled a herring--let alone a red one? They're oily little...
Fri, Apr 13 2018, 8:33 PM
Bonds were technically stronger today. There is green on the screen right now for everything but 2yr Treasuries. It's not huge, but at least it's ...
Fri, Apr 13 2018, 9:56 AM
I started using some more serious words to talk about bond market weakness yesterday, but I'll make them simple and keep the assessment short this mor...
Thu, Apr 12 2018, 7:49 PM
At first glance, today was all about a de-escalation of yesterday's Syria rhetoric from Trump (re: "missiles"). Given that we were able to credit yes...
Thu, Apr 12 2018, 9:32 AM
On a week where the calendar of events had every right to push bond yields more decisively away from their most important recent technical level (2.79...
Wed, Apr 11 2018, 6:37 PM
Bonds were set to begin the day in fairly unchanged territory when Trump tweeted about launching missiles at Syria and forcing Russia to try to shoot ...
Wed, Apr 11 2018, 8:30 AM
Bonds were flat yet again in the overnight session, but began to improve after Trump tweeted "get ready Russia," missiles "will be coming" in respon...
Tue, Apr 10 2018, 6:17 PM
For bonds (and almost for S&P futures as well), today was spent in roughly the same range as yesterday and well-within the range boundaries set by Fri...
Tue, Apr 10 2018, 9:19 AM
Although today's 8:30am data has the trigger phrase "price index," it's not the price index you're looking for. That will come tomorrow in the form o...
Mon, Apr 9 2018, 5:04 PM
Without any major events or data on the econ calendar, it was a calm and relatively inconsequential day for bond markets. Yields stayed (mostly) in...
Mon, Apr 9 2018, 9:34 AM
If you're a 10yr Treasury yield in 2018, you don't simply have free reign to enjoy yourself at yields under 2.80%. That's a right and a privilege for...
Fri, Apr 6 2018, 5:16 PM
It would be hard to have any discussion about important technical levels in 10yr Treasury yields recently without 2.79-2.80% coming up early and often...
Fri, Apr 6 2018, 9:34 AM
NFP came out much weaker this morning (102k vs 190k forecast). That's a fairly weak reading, and a bigger "miss" than we normally see. Importantly t...
Thu, Apr 5 2018, 4:42 PM
I'm running out of ways to talk about trade-war-related headlines driving risk-on vs risk-off movement in stocks and bonds. In case you've missed i...
Thu, Apr 5 2018, 9:07 AM
The month of March was characterized by 10yr yields repeatedly bouncing at a floor of 2.80% in terms of 10yr yields. At the time, I argued that--whil...
Wed, Apr 4 2018, 4:18 PM
On a few occasions during the past few weeks, I've brought MBS underperformance to your attention. Specifically, MBS and mortgage rates hadn't been...
Wed, Apr 4 2018, 9:57 AM
Although preliminary news was out yesterday about China potentially announcing retaliatory tariffs on the US, that announcement was officially made ov...
Tue, Apr 3 2018, 4:18 PM
Granted, it's an on-again, off-again relationship between stock prices and rates, but it's been "on" for the past few days. Today was no exception....
Tue, Apr 3 2018, 9:05 AM
Yesterday's recap focused on the on-again, off-again relationship between stocks and bonds. Specifically, bonds don't always follow stocks or vice ve...
Mon, Apr 2 2018, 5:20 PM
One of my favorite recurring observations about financial markets is that the classic concept of "stocks vs bonds" doesn't always work. That's the on...
Mon, Apr 2 2018, 9:20 AM
Last week saw a potentially significant development for bond markets with the break below key technical levels in 10yr yields and the yield curve. Fo...
Thu, Mar 29 2018, 2:46 PM
Bond markets closed early today and will be fully closed tomorrow for the Good Friday holiday. It was also "month-end," which can bring in additional...
Thu, Mar 29 2018, 8:55 AM
10yr yields had 3 big bounces at 2.80% in March, making it the only obvious candidate for the lower boundary of the recently sideways range. It was f...
Wed, Mar 28 2018, 5:13 PM
US bond markets improved in the overnight session as European markets drove yields lower around 3am. US 10yr yields fell below 2.75% as a result, an...
Wed, Mar 28 2018, 9:18 AM
Without a discussion on important technical levels and without looking at one of several pieces of technical analysis, yesterday looks like any other ...
Tue, Mar 27 2018, 5:23 PM
I'm not sure I've heard anyone genuinely say "oh my!" by way of exclamatory response in quite a while. But the odds increased today with a rather sur...
Tue, Mar 27 2018, 9:02 AM
Whether we're looking at shorter-term or longer-term charts, we're left with the sense that bonds aren't very interested in following any other market...
Mon, Mar 26 2018, 5:16 PM
With last Thursday's rally, bonds had a chance to challenge the prevailing sideways range (from 2.80-2.91 in 10yr yields). Friday's weakness was set ...
Mon, Mar 26 2018, 9:12 AM
If bond yields can manage to hold inside their recent range through the end of this week, they'll have gone an entire month with the lowest volatility...
Fri, Mar 23 2018, 5:25 PM
Bonds showed both their hands early today. The first was seen in the overnight session when decent overseas buying demand pushed yields below the in...
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