Wed, May 16 2018, 9:30 AM
Today is starting out with just a hint of green on the screens. While that's certainly much better than the alternative (some historical examples see...
Tue, May 15 2018, 5:06 PM
July 8, 2011. That's how far you'd have to go back to see higher 10yr yields than we saw today. At their worst, they were at 3.0945% . At the clos...
Tue, May 15 2018, 9:51 AM
I hate clickbait with a passion. Today's title might sound like clickbait. Do I really expect you to believe that there have only been 4 days like t...
Mon, May 14 2018, 4:29 PM
Low volume and lighter-than-normal liquidity left US bond markets more impressionable than normal today. Or perhaps it IS normal given that it's a ...
Mon, May 14 2018, 9:19 AM
This week's economic calendar is generally on the quiet side with Retail Sales being the only upper-echelon report in terms of its potential impact ...
Fri, May 11 2018, 6:47 PM
I'm going to write at you from an analytical standpoint for a moment. Sorry, I just have to vent. Today was completely forgettable. In fact, the pa...
Fri, May 11 2018, 8:34 AM
Are rates in the process of confirming a top or are they simply in some sort of consolidation period before continuing higher to the scarier level...
Thu, May 10 2018, 4:32 PM
With two big-ticket events on tap for bond markets today, there was always a chance that they'd go our way and that we'd see some decent gains as a ...
Thu, May 10 2018, 9:40 AM
Today begins with a modestly weaker CPI (consumer price index) report generating an impressive surge in volume. In fact, the volume in the minute fol...
Wed, May 9 2018, 7:11 PM
Today's key event for bonds was the 10yr Treasury auction because it served as an acid test for investor demand amid relatively uncertain times. Un...
Wed, May 9 2018, 9:36 AM
Most of April had been bad for bonds. It was like the beginning of yet another storm in a series that had battered the fixed-income coastline since l...
Tue, May 8 2018, 5:30 PM
2.95% in 10yr Treasury yields had become a bit of a battleground last week. Even in the week prior, there were two big bounces there (3 if you coun...
Tue, May 8 2018, 9:16 AM
Yesterday's recap labeled the trading day as an official 3rd day of the weekend due to an absence of volume or volatility. The underlying culprit (ap...
Mon, May 7 2018, 4:36 PM
This happens from time to time on Mondays. Either due to a holiday overseas or some other distraction, a data-free Monday ends up being a complete du...
Mon, May 7 2018, 9:33 AM
Longer-term rates have been in a bit of a holding pattern after deciding not to smash through the highest levels in more than 4 years at the end of Ap...
Fri, May 4 2018, 7:02 PM
After the week's biggest dose of intraday volatility this morning, rates ended up almost perfectly unchanged. Charts suggest an uncommonly high amo...
Fri, May 4 2018, 9:46 AM
With modest gains intact this morning (even after NFP), we're finally in a position to say that all hope may not officially be lost for bonds. That w...
Thu, May 3 2018, 4:38 PM
With the 2.95% level in 10yr yields being the most important pivot point for bonds at the moment, drifting sideways to close out the day around 2.94...
Thu, May 3 2018, 8:54 AM
There has been at least some amount of correlation between stocks and bond yields in 2018 inasmuch as the major lows for stocks in Feb and April coi...
Wed, May 2 2018, 4:27 PM
We'll give Friday a pass because it was technically still part of the 2-day correction leading back from the 4-year highs in the 10yr Treasury yield s...
Wed, May 2 2018, 2:02 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January March indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and t...
Wed, May 2 2018, 9:09 AM
There's a fair amount on the calendar today from an objective standpoint. The 3 headliners are ADP Employment, the Treasury refunding announcement an...
Tue, May 1 2018, 5:10 PM
The Day Ahead discussed the year's previous closing high of 2.95% in 10yr yields. It hadn't come into play too terribly much until the past 3 session...
Tue, May 1 2018, 9:13 AM
2.95% was the closing high for 10yr yields back in late February. While we saw 10s move as low as 2.935 yesterday, that seemed to be a product of mon...
Mon, Apr 30 2018, 4:36 PM
April was a bummer of a month for the bond market. Actually, it was decent through the 11th, but it got ugly quickly after that--especially during th...
Mon, Apr 30 2018, 9:42 AM
This week brings several top tier economic reports as well as a Fed announcement. Combine that with today's month-end trading process, it makes for a...
Fri, Apr 27 2018, 6:53 PM
Bonds managed to scratch out a 2nd day of "recovery" leading back from the highest yields in more than 4 years seen on Wednesday. If you don't want t...
Fri, Apr 27 2018, 9:19 AM
The abrupt sell-off that began on 4/18 has been a bit frustrating from an analytical standpoint due to an absence of clearly-delineated motivations. ...
Thu, Apr 26 2018, 5:00 PM
In yesterday's recap, I mentioned that we were likely to see a token bounce on one of the next 3 days, but that it didn't necessarily guarantee furt...
Thu, Apr 26 2018, 10:07 AM
Today is shaping up to be the first push back against the current selling trend. By current, I mean the sharper, shorter trend of the past 7 days a...
Wed, Apr 25 2018, 4:32 PM
The recent rate drama continues unabated. Today was the 6th day of heavy selling in bond markets, bringing yields within striking distance of the 2...
Wed, Apr 25 2018, 9:33 AM
It will come as no surprise that I feel the level of discussion about 10yr yields being at 3% is overdone at best, and misguided at worst. Actually, ...
Tue, Apr 24 2018, 4:56 PM
After yesterday's somewhat hopeful leveling-off in bond yields, today served to drive home the point that hope is futile and only bad things are goi...
Tue, Apr 24 2018, 10:25 AM
You won't be able to avoid "3% 10yr Treasury Yields" this week. For starters, 10's have already hit 3.0033% today, but simply being close seems to ha...
Mon, Apr 23 2018, 5:16 PM
Have you ever seen someone randomly do something fairly awful/hurtful/aggressive, offer no explanation or apology, and then just leave the scene? Tha...
Mon, Apr 23 2018, 9:03 AM
I'm going to be surly this week about the way the bond market is covered in the financial media. Many of the articles to which I take exception will ...
Fri, Apr 20 2018, 5:14 PM
10yr yields hit the highest levels in more than 4 years this afternoon as bigger-picture selling pressure looks to be taking the reigns back from ...
Fri, Apr 20 2018, 9:20 AM
Rates are in the midst of a serious, threatening move higher. Yesterday brought additional confirmation of the end of the friendly Springtime conso...
Thu, Apr 19 2018, 5:03 PM
The break outside what we'll call the "Springtime Consolidation" for bonds started taking shape as early as last week. On Thursday and Friday, yiel...
Thu, Apr 19 2018, 9:51 AM
We've been increasingly wary about a potential break of the recent consolidation/rally trend --the one that saw yields move sideways to slightly stro...
Wed, Apr 18 2018, 4:49 PM
Today was a more serious version of the same sort of warning shots seen at the end of last week. At that time, bond yields rose to challenge an inter...
Wed, Apr 18 2018, 9:31 AM
The term "earnings season" gets thrown around quite a bit in financial news, but what is it, exactly? Simply put, it's a period of several weeks each...
Tue, Apr 17 2018, 4:47 PM
With elevated stock/bond correlation of late, it's always worth noting when things move in the opposite direction. Today was such a day, with stocks ...
Tue, Apr 17 2018, 10:16 AM
Much of the analysis of the past few days has focused on the downwardly sloped trend channel seen in today's first chart. This can be thought of as t...
Mon, Apr 16 2018, 5:20 PM
Bonds were quite a bit weaker in the overnight session. According to the average media report, this was in response to Syria-related developments. T...
Mon, Apr 16 2018, 10:10 AM
Another week, another change to savor the scent of red herring in the air. Have you ever smelled a herring--let alone a red one? They're oily little...
Fri, Apr 13 2018, 8:33 PM
Bonds were technically stronger today. There is green on the screen right now for everything but 2yr Treasuries. It's not huge, but at least it's ...
Fri, Apr 13 2018, 9:56 AM
I started using some more serious words to talk about bond market weakness yesterday, but I'll make them simple and keep the assessment short this mor...
Thu, Apr 12 2018, 7:49 PM
At first glance, today was all about a de-escalation of yesterday's Syria rhetoric from Trump (re: "missiles"). Given that we were able to credit yes...
Thu, Apr 12 2018, 9:32 AM
On a week where the calendar of events had every right to push bond yields more decisively away from their most important recent technical level (2.79...
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