Thu, Mar 24 2016, 8:32 AM
Bond markets close early (2pm ET), and market participation should reflect the rush for the exits
Translation: liquidity and volume should die down...
Thu, Mar 24 2016, 5:10 PM
10yr yields ended the week right where they began it (1.90%)
Same can't be said of MBS, Fannie 3.0s lost ground on the week
Durable Goods data h...
Thu, Mar 24 2016, 4:18 PM
Mortgage rates reversed course today, heading back toward the higher levels seen earlier in the week. It's no mystery that rates have been payin...
Wed, Mar 23 2016, 9:08 AM
After breaking above 1.92%, technicals get interesting for 10yr yields
Bigger-picture uptrends in rates at risk of continuing
Last full day of t...
Wed, Mar 23 2016, 6:40 PM
Much like yesterday, bond markets experienced a somewhat abrupt intraday swing that lacked overt motivation. This time, however, rates were heading...
Wed, Mar 23 2016, 5:27 PM
Mortgage rates moved slightly lower today, recovering some of their losses from the first two days of the week. The average lender continues to ...
Tue, Mar 22 2016, 8:47 AM
Last week introduced the possibility that March's bearish trend was reversing
yesterday's weakness failed to confirm that reversal
It's still po...
Tue, Mar 22 2016, 6:33 PM
Treasuries gain overnight on flight-to-safety surrounding Brussels terror attacks
rates struggled to break overnight lows in morning trading
Af...
Tue, Mar 22 2016, 5:37 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher again today, casting a bigger shadow on last week's improvements. Rates haven't yet returned to the higher levels se...
Mon, Mar 21 2016, 8:37 AM
SIFMA recommended early close for markets ( 2pm ET) on Thu and full close on Friday
Friday is NOT a bank holiday
Bond markets in equivocal ter...
Mon, Mar 21 2016, 5:39 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher to begin the new week as stocks and oil prices moved up from Friday afternoon's lows. Today's increases cast a shad...
Fri, Mar 18 2016, 9:23 AM
No econ data on tap apart from Consumer Sentiment
Oil surging, how much does it matter?
Bonds trying to confirm technical bounce, but not quite ...
Fri, Mar 18 2016, 4:30 PM
5 straight days of lower closing yields in Treasuries
Almost 5 straight days of higher closes for MBS
In both cases, 90%+ of the gains followed ...
Fri, Mar 18 2016, 3:56 PM
Mortgage rates didn't move much today, but of the lenders with noticeable differences versus yesterday, most were just slightly lower. That mean...
Thu, Mar 17 2016, 8:40 AM
The day begins with bond markets holding yesterday's post-Fed rally, and adding to the gains overnight. In fact, we've seen enough of an improvement ...
Thu, Mar 17 2016, 4:42 PM
Stocks and oil closed at 2016 highs
Corporate bond supply also added pressure on Treasuries/MBS
But bonds held their ground with MBS outperformi...
Thu, Mar 17 2016, 3:51 PM
Almost any major media outlet that covers financial news will have a story out today regarding this week's mortgage rates being higher than last week'...
Wed, Mar 16 2016, 8:31 AM
The Fed began its 2-day policy setting meeting yesterday and, by now, is likely already well on its way to finalizing the text of today's announceme...
Wed, Mar 16 2016, 5:19 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower today, but the amount was not only smaller than underlying market movement suggested, it also varied widely from lend...
Wed, Mar 16 2016, 5:07 PM
Bond markets rallied rather impressively today following the FOMC Announcement. Actually, it was really the Fed's economic projections (aka, the "d...
Wed, Mar 16 2016, 2:01 PM
(additions underlined, deletions struck-through)
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in Dece...
Tue, Mar 15 2016, 8:28 AM
In the early overnight session, the policy announcement from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) was a bit of a downer for global risk markets. It wasn't that it...
Tue, Mar 15 2016, 5:37 PM
Bonds start strong after Bank of Japan Announcement'
Further improvements after weak Retail Sales revision
The gains served as a cue for traders...
Tue, Mar 15 2016, 5:06 PM
Mortgage rates were essentially unchange d today, despite implied weakness in underlying bond markets. In other words, rates should have move...
Mon, Mar 14 2016, 9:03 AM
Seeing as how March would end up being the worst month for bond markets since the taper tantrum if the current pace of selling continues, and wherea...
Mon, Mar 14 2016, 5:15 PM
Calm Monday, for the most part
Bonds probably took cues from oil prices
Bonds bounced when oil bounced (around noon)
Net effect was modest ga...
Mon, Mar 14 2016, 4:20 PM
Mortgage rates moved slightly lower today, for the second time in March. Unfortunately, the improvement did little to erase the recent weakness, ...
Fri, Mar 11 2016, 8:48 AM
Bond markets have been partying pretty hard so far in 2016, though the party has been dying down since mid February . That process began with st...
Fri, Mar 11 2016, 5:59 PM
Pointless, confused trading day for multiple markets
Bonds struggled sideways at first, then broke into weaker territory for no apparent reason
...
Fri, Mar 11 2016, 5:14 PM
Mortgage rates moved slightly higher again today, pushing farther into the highest territory since late January. Today's move wasn't that big, in a...
Thu, Mar 10 2016, 8:38 AM
The European Central Bank (ECB) broke with tradition to some extent, as it announced several policy changes in the 7:45am press release. This relea...
Thu, Mar 10 2016, 5:26 PM
Mortgage rates continued higher today, making it back to levels last seen in late January. Today's key event was a policy announcement from the Eur...
Thu, Mar 10 2016, 5:26 PM
ECB unveils bigger-than-expected package of rate cuts and QE purchases
Then Draghi says the magic words (in a nutshell: no more rate cuts)
Stock...
Wed, Mar 9 2016, 8:58 AM
Yesterday's fears: that the gains were just a byproduct of trading positions
Particularly, bond bears were covering bets on higher rates
Trader...
Wed, Mar 9 2016, 4:43 PM
Mortgage rates bounced higher today, moving all the way back to the highest levels since early February. While that sounds quite dramatic, the same...
Tue, Mar 8 2016, 8:52 AM
The past week has been unpleasant for bond markets, to say the least. Even before that, the strong bounce off the long-term lows in mid-February fo...
Tue, Mar 8 2016, 5:33 PM
Treasuries much stronger overnight, following weak Chinese trade data, strong Japanese bond market gains, and decent European bond market gains
Bon...
Tue, Mar 8 2016, 4:46 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower today, regaining a good amount of the ground lost over the past few days. The average lender rate sheet is back in lin...
Mon, Mar 7 2016, 8:41 AM
Bond markets obviously had a pretty rough go of it last week, having broken out of the sideways trend that followed early February's long-term lows. ...
Mon, Mar 7 2016, 5:42 PM
Big rally in oil brings stocks back up and keeps pressure on bonds
Corporate debt supply also hurt Treasuries specifically, but earlier in the day ...
Mon, Mar 7 2016, 5:10 PM
Mortgage rates moved only slightly higher today on average. Some lenders were effectively unchanged from Friday, which is impressive considering t...
Fri, Mar 4 2016, 8:23 AM
"Stop me if you've heard this one before. There's this epic long-term inflection point defined by 10yr yield levels 1.84-1.86. It stretches back to 2...
Fri, Mar 4 2016, 5:53 PM
Jobs report was good, mostly (242k vs 190k forecast, but some internal weakness)
10yr yields breaking 1.84 support is bad
10yr yields holding un...
Fri, Mar 4 2016, 5:10 PM
Mortgage rates moved only moderately higher today after the Employment Situation report came out much stronger than expected. The all-important jo...
Thu, Mar 3 2016, 8:31 AM
Let's not overcomplicate things too much when it comes to the 2016 bond market rally. In fact, let's move in the other direction for a moment and con...
Thu, Mar 3 2016, 5:28 PM
Bonds slightly weaker overnight; low volume; lack of inspiration
Domestic trading stayed very flat until 11:20am
Bonds rallied sharply but bri...
Thu, Mar 3 2016, 4:31 PM
Mortgage rates began the day slightly higher, on average, but managed to make it back in line with yesterday's levels by the afternoon. Some lend...
Wed, Mar 2 2016, 7:31 AM
We're getting into some tricky territory with respect to market behavior and predicting the future. 2016 has been fairly unidimensional so far. B...
Wed, Mar 2 2016, 5:40 PM
Treasuries flat overnight, despite various cues in other markets
Bonds move weaker following ADP data, but damage immediately contained
Rest of ...
Wed, Mar 2 2016, 4:38 PM
Mortgage rates continued farther into to the highest levels since early February today. The current territory is important in the bigger pi...
