Fri, Jun 23 2023, 3:24 PM
Still Waiting For a Breakout After Friday's Uneventful Strength
Friday began with solid gains courtesy of we...
Fri, Jun 23 2023, 11:19 AM
Granted, today's only available domestic economic data is the S&P PMIs, but the market could have justified either a stronger or weaker response. The...
Thu, Jun 22 2023, 4:35 PM
One important disclaimer right upfront: there's no real need to concern yourself with recent day-to-day movement in mortgage rates if your goal is to ...
Thu, Jun 22 2023, 4:06 PM
Powell Says Old Things in New Ways and Bonds Don't Like It
It was day 2 for Fed Chair Powell's congressional...
Thu, Jun 22 2023, 1:51 PM
Have you heard the one about the 3.72-3.84 range? While we haven't seen much of the ceiling this week, the floor is getting a workout. Yesterday aft...
Wed, Jun 21 2023, 3:46 PM
No Whammies From Powell, 20yr Auction Helps
After a clear rejection of the 3.72% floor in 10yr yields overni...
Wed, Jun 21 2023, 3:43 PM
Any discussion about mortgage rates rising or falling in the month of June requires the caveat about the trend being exceptionally flat in the bigger ...
Wed, Jun 21 2023, 1:08 PM
While it would be nice to have our 3.4-3.6 range back, the past few weeks have seen the adoption of a new 3.72-3.84 range. While ranges this narrow o...
Tue, Jun 20 2023, 4:56 PM
Deceptively Uneventful Trading Day For Bonds
Right out of the gate this morning, bonds responded to the mass...
Tue, Jun 20 2023, 4:31 PM
Mortgage rates are primarily driven by changes in the value of certain bonds that trade on the open market. Those bonds (mortgage-backed securities o...
Tue, Jun 20 2023, 12:42 PM
Bonds started the holiday-shortened week at moderately higher yields, but rallied several bps during European hours. 8:30am econ data pushed back, er...
Fri, Jun 16 2023, 6:34 PM
Rates may not be as high as they were several months ago or as low as they were 5 weeks ago, but they're close enough to either boundary that the thre...
Fri, Jun 16 2023, 4:02 PM
Rangebound Weakness With Fed Speakers Keeping Bonds Wary
Bonds might have had a chance to hold steady today-...
Fri, Jun 16 2023, 12:22 PM
Heading into this week's CPI and Fed Day combo, we expected bonds to be broadly sideways with elevated volatility. But rather than give new direction...
Thu, Jun 15 2023, 4:12 PM
Earl Data-Driven Rally And Not Much Drama After That
Despite a slew of other economic data that was stronger...
Thu, Jun 15 2023, 3:26 PM
Not to be confused with the big monthly jobs report (the one that includes a count of "nonfarm payrolls" as well as the official unemployment rate in ...
Thu, Jun 15 2023, 9:55 AM
Last week's biggest bond rally occurred on Thursday, immediately following the release of the highest Jobless Claims number since late 2021. Exactly ...
Wed, Jun 14 2023, 4:55 PM
As was widely expected, the Federal Reserve held rates steady today. Mortgage rates were also generally steady, but the two have little to do with on...
Wed, Jun 14 2023, 4:42 PM
Fed Threads Needle With Forecasts That Are Not Really Forecasts
Four times a year, the Fed updates its SEP (...
Wed, Jun 14 2023, 2:00 PM
The following is a comparison of today's Fed statement to the previous statement from May 3rd. Deletions are struck through and in red. Additions ar...
Wed, Jun 14 2023, 12:44 PM
Today's Fed events are both straightforward, mostly predictable, and potentially highly consequential. The Fed's line of thinking will likely prove t...
Tue, Jun 13 2023, 4:10 PM
Tuesday brought an unfriendly paradoxical reaction for rates. Don't worry. We can shift gears to words that make more sense now. Rates began the ...
Tue, Jun 13 2023, 3:41 PM
Frustrating Snowball Selling Despite Decent CPI
Even though CPI came in right in line with forecasts today (...
Tue, Jun 13 2023, 11:12 AM
Today brought the first of the week's two major events with core CPI coming in right in line with the 0.4% forecast. Headline inflation fell even mor...
Mon, Jun 12 2023, 3:59 PM
Mortgage rates drifted slightly higher this morning with the average lender moving up to the highest levels in nearly 2 weeks. Top tier 30yr fixed sc...
Mon, Jun 12 2023, 3:45 PM
MBS Outperform Amid Treasury Supply Pressure
Bonds made it through the overnight session without any major d...
Mon, Jun 12 2023, 11:06 AM
The week's much anticipated headliners are clearly the CPI/Fed combo on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. While those events still account for a va...
Fri, Jun 9 2023, 4:20 PM
In a surprising turn of events, this week's biggest market mover for interest rates was a policy announcement by the Bank of Canada (BOC). The event w...
Fri, Jun 9 2023, 3:57 PM
Canada Doesn't Really Matter. Bring on CPI and The Fed
The day began with a hunt for the mystery market move...
Fri, Jun 9 2023, 9:46 AM
This otherwise sleepy Friday began with the sort of clearly defined spike in volume and yield that often accompanies big ticket economic data. With t...
Thu, Jun 8 2023, 4:19 PM
Economic data is one of the most basic and reliable inputs for the bond market. The bond market, in turn, dictates day to day interest rate movement....
Thu, Jun 8 2023, 4:17 PM
Claims Data Completely Erases At Least One Day of Higher Rate Expectations
There have been been several days...
Thu, Jun 8 2023, 12:04 PM
If you like low rates, you are often unfortunately rooting for negative economic data. You're not a bad person. Bonds are simply a hedge against eco...
Wed, Jun 7 2023, 4:03 PM
Mortgage rates continue to operate in a fairly narrow range but we've been mostly moving in one direction inside that range so far this month. Late l...
Wed, Jun 7 2023, 3:48 PM
BOC Warns US Rate Market Against Complacency
US rate traders are pretty sure they have the Fed figured out a...
Wed, Jun 7 2023, 1:15 PM
Yesterday, it was the Royal Bank of Australia (RBA) with it's first rate hike after "skipping" a few meetings. Today it was the Bank of Canada (BOC)....
Tue, Jun 6 2023, 3:42 PM
By Friday, there's a distinct possibility that you'll be tired of hearing different versions of the same story. The plot: last Friday's jobs report p...
Tue, Jun 6 2023, 3:34 PM
Nothing to See Here
It would be hard to make a case for any other day in the past month being more boring th...
Tue, Jun 6 2023, 10:37 AM
With the week's only top tier economic release hitting on Monday morning, the path of least resistance for the rest of the week is a choppy, sideways ...
Mon, Jun 5 2023, 4:56 PM
Mortgage rates held fairly steady over the weekend. That wasn't necessarily destined to be the case as the underlying bond market suggested another m...
Mon, Jun 5 2023, 4:43 PM
Weaker Data Helps Bonds Hold Ground
Bonds remained in selling mode after Friday's jobs report. 10yr yields ...
Mon, Jun 5 2023, 12:29 PM
Bonds began the day in weaker territory but quickly found their footing after softer PMI data. In particular, ISM Services (50.3 vs 52.2) helped 10yr...
Fri, Jun 2 2023, 6:40 PM
After dominating the news cycle for weeks, the debt ceiling issue is suddenly resolved and the bond market doesn't seem to care. The jobs report prove...
Fri, Jun 2 2023, 4:13 PM
What Debt Ceiling? Yields Follow NFP Higher
After being utterly bombarded for weeks, newswire feeds at tradi...
Fri, Jun 2 2023, 2:00 PM
Nonfarm payrolls were up 339k, well above the 190k forecast. At the same time, unemployment rose from 3.4% to 3.7%, well above the 3.5% forecast. Ho...
Thu, Jun 1 2023, 5:04 PM
Data-Driven Rally, But There's Bigger Data Ahead
Yesterday's economic data made for a bit of back and forth ...
Thu, Jun 1 2023, 1:13 PM
Bonds had been hoping for econ data to reinforce a ceiling after a recent run to the highest yields in months and the past few days have delivered. T...
Wed, May 31 2023, 4:43 PM
After hitting the highest levels in several months last Friday, mortgage rates have fallen fairly quickly in the new week. As bond markets improved t...
Wed, May 31 2023, 3:58 PM
Domestic Events Mostly Overshadowed by European Influence
While we can trace some of this morning's back and...
Wed, May 31 2023, 1:26 PM
The big news so far this week is the absence of any concrete conclusion to the debt ceiling debate (delivered in box labelled "debt ceiling debate sol...
