Tue, May 30 2023, 10:53 PM
Nice Rally With Buyers Back in The Office
Any time bonds make a big (but not necessarily completely justifie...
Tue, May 30 2023, 4:19 PM
The past 2 weeks were fairly rough for fans of low mortgage rates. The average lender moved higher at the fastest pace since February over that time....
Tue, May 30 2023, 12:55 PM
Whether it was the economic headwinds implied by the stop-gap debt ceiling proposal or a return to the market among traders who'd pared positions ahea...
Fri, May 26 2023, 3:45 PM
It was nearly impossible to avoid news regarding the debt ceiling this week, but how much does it actually matter? Let's make sure we're on the same ...
Fri, May 26 2023, 2:04 PM
Bonds Diverge Over Data Implications
It's been a consistently bad week for the bond market and this morning'...
Thu, May 25 2023, 4:34 PM
It was bad news but big news a few days ago when the average top tier 30yr fixed rate made it back to 7% for the first time since early March. After ...
Thu, May 25 2023, 4:24 PM
Debt Ceiling Debate Volatility Causing Issues For Bonds
Treasuries sold off in a linear fashion today--much ...
Thu, May 25 2023, 1:35 PM
Despite vague hints of support over the past few days, the bond market is back to the same old tricks seen last week. It's actually a pretty simple t...
Wed, May 24 2023, 4:43 PM
Wednesday was a fairly volatile day for mortgage rates. The movement wasn't extreme, but there were a few lead changes. The day began with the avera...
Wed, May 24 2023, 4:27 PM
Today is Best Viewed as "In-Range Volatility"
Bonds began the day on the back foot as UK inflation crushed f...
Wed, May 24 2023, 9:25 AM
UK inflation data came in HOT overnight with the core m/m reading up1.3% vs 0.9% f'cast, a far cry from the 0.4% m/m core inflation in the US and anot...
Tue, May 23 2023, 4:58 PM
Today's headline is the most dramatic part of today's story on mortgage rates. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate has been mostly operating in a 6-...
Tue, May 23 2023, 4:49 PM
Debt Ceiling Finally Having an Impact
After several weeks in the news cycle spotlight, the debt ceiling is f...
Tue, May 23 2023, 1:30 PM
Today's most relevant econ data--S&P Global Services PMI--came in at 55.1 versus a 51.5 forecast. In a world where the bond market is generally afrai...
Mon, May 22 2023, 4:36 PM
There are some broad rate surveys/indices that show 30yr fixed mortgage rates under 6.5% or close to it, but it's a bit of a mystery as to how such a ...
Mon, May 22 2023, 4:24 PM
Why Are We Here And Where Are We Going?
The bond market has entered a lull heading into Memorial Day weekend...
Mon, May 22 2023, 12:53 PM
If you're as determined as we are to avoid reading any more than you need to about the debt ceiling, then the Fed is pretty much the only game in town...
Fri, May 19 2023, 4:24 PM
The debt ceiling debate is all over the news, but it's a different ceiling is commanding more of the bond market's attention. Still, we wouldn't say ...
Fri, May 19 2023, 4:14 PM
What The Range Breakout Means For The Outlook
With bonds seeing additional weakness after breaking above 3.6...
Fri, May 19 2023, 11:05 AM
Yesterday's headline was "range breakout?" with a question mark. We only need a change in punctuation to adapt the headline to today's reality. Yiel...
Thu, May 18 2023, 3:44 PM
Range Breakout ?
The day began with data-driven selling pushing 10yr yields up and over the 3.60% range boun...
Thu, May 18 2023, 3:20 PM
It may not be a death by a thousand cuts, but mortgage rates are suffering a bit of blood loss from roughly 5 cuts. Specifically, the past 5 days hav...
Wed, May 17 2023, 3:45 PM
For The Bond Market, The Waiting Will Continue
Phrases like "hurry up and wait" and "ho hum day" have been i...
Wed, May 17 2023, 3:36 PM
Mortgage rates have been moving higher since late last week, ultimately hitting the highest levels in just over 2 weeks yesterday, but that trend ende...
Wed, May 17 2023, 1:04 PM
One would think that the debt ceiling debate would be a key issue for the bond market considering Treasuries are sort of the definitive US government ...
Tue, May 16 2023, 3:36 PM
Breaking Down The Paradoxical Reaction to Retail Sales
Today's Retail Sales headline may have missed the mar...
Tue, May 16 2023, 3:35 PM
Mortgage rates didn't change much today. The average lender was only a hair higher than yesterday afternoon. But that was enough for today's rates t...
Tue, May 16 2023, 11:41 AM
Bonds began the day in slightly stronger territory but are in the midst of a paradoxical sell-off following weaker than expected Retail Sales. Weaker...
Mon, May 15 2023, 4:14 PM
For those who only want to be woken up when mortgage rates make a big move down into the 5% range or back up and over 7%, you're free to go. The most...
Mon, May 15 2023, 4:01 PM
Hurry Up And Wait
The bond market is increasingly resigned to the fairly boring task of waiting to find out ...
Mon, May 15 2023, 12:28 PM
While it may be blessing for rates to be flatter and more predictable lately, the fact that the sideways range is close to long-term highs feels more ...
Fri, May 12 2023, 7:33 PM
Scroll down far enough on the list of Webster's definitions of the word "consolidate," and you'll find "to form together into a compact mass." Financ...
Fri, May 12 2023, 3:36 PM
Bonds Bounce Data Confirms Range Resistance
Yesterday's bounce at 3.35% suggested that the bond market's wil...
Thu, May 11 2023, 4:59 PM
Mortgage rates inched lower again on Thursday as economic reports came out slightly weaker and bank sector concerns remain in the spotlight. Such thi...
Thu, May 11 2023, 4:50 PM
Rally or Resistance?
The bond market rallied on Thursday with 10yr yields dropping about 5bps to just under ...
Thu, May 11 2023, 11:51 AM
The market is definitely in an on-again, off-again romance with bank drama. Today was already shaping up to be an "on-again" day before the open as P...
Wed, May 10 2023, 5:02 PM
Today marked the release of the most recent monthly installment of the Consumer Price Index (CPI)--the most closely followed inflation report and one ...
Wed, May 10 2023, 4:57 PM
Does Today's Data Change The Outlook?
There were a few rate friendly tidbits buried in the CPI data, but for...
Wed, May 10 2023, 12:25 PM
The long awaited CPI data is out and the results could scarcely be less eventful. Core monthly inflation (the most important number for markets today...
Tue, May 9 2023, 4:27 PM
Mortgage rates rose at their fastest pace in decades in 2022 and if only one thing could take the blame, it would be inflation. There are several way...
Tue, May 9 2023, 4:16 PM
MBS Recover Some Losses Thanks to 3yr Auction
The day began with a strong bond auction in Germany setting th...
Tue, May 9 2023, 12:53 PM
A strong bond auction in Germany set the stage for US bond yields to start the day slightly lower, but sellers have been pushing yields higher steadil...
Mon, May 8 2023, 3:31 PM
Mortgage rates moved noticeably higher to start the new week--high enough that you'd have to go back to last Monday to see anything higher. That's th...
Mon, May 8 2023, 3:16 PM
Rising Rates Reiterate Relevance of The Range
Bonds were in weaker shape right from the start. Holiday clos...
Mon, May 8 2023, 12:08 PM
The bond market isn't trying on any new hats recently. Yields have been mostly deadlocked between 3.4 and 3.6%.
Econ data has been mixed. Bank...
Fri, May 5 2023, 4:39 PM
The first week of any given month tends to have the highest concentration of economic data with the power to influence the bond market, and thus inter...
Fri, May 5 2023, 4:37 PM
Logical NFP Reaction Leaves Range Intact. Bring on CPI
The jobs report has come and gone without offering an...
Fri, May 5 2023, 12:35 PM
ADP, Consumer Confidence labor differential, ISM Manufacturing. Challenger job cuts, Philly Fed, Empire State, Continuing Jobless Claims... These are...
Thu, May 4 2023, 4:52 PM
There's likely no getting around that fact that mortgage rates will be moving noticeably--possibly substantially--in the coming days. This is due to ...
Thu, May 4 2023, 4:40 PM
Asymmetric Risk Ahead of Jobs Report
Bonds spent time on both sides of 'unchanged' today with much of it in ...
