Thu, May 4 2023, 11:39 AM
After yesterday's Fed announcement and press conference, longer-term bond yields moved quickly into a position to challenge the prevailing range floor...
Wed, May 3 2023, 4:27 PM
The implication of "Fed rate hikes" is a constant source of confusion in the housing market. The general belief is that the Fed controls rates and if...
Wed, May 3 2023, 4:07 PM
Bonds Like Fed's Dovish Hike
There was really only one option for the Fed today: hike rates by 25bps but sig...
Wed, May 3 2023, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators point to Economic activity expanded at a modest growth pace in spending and production. the first quarter. Job gains have p...
Wed, May 3 2023, 10:42 AM
There were two big potential market movers on the calendar today: ISM non-manufacturing and the Fed announcement. ISM data is out and it is boring (r...
Tue, May 2 2023, 4:23 PM
Mortgage rates began the week with a moderately big jump to what were essentially the highest levels in more than a month. Less than 24 hours later a...
Tue, May 2 2023, 4:09 PM
What a Difference a Day Makes
Bonds completely erased yesterday's snowball sell-off with an even bigger snow...
Tue, May 2 2023, 10:38 AM
After a sharp sell-off to start the week, bonds are back in action this morning, enjoying the carnage and chaos in the economy every bit as much as th...
Mon, May 1 2023, 4:46 PM
Snowball Sell-Off to Start The Month
Sometimes headlines reference the beginning or end of any given day/wee...
Mon, May 1 2023, 4:42 PM
Whether we call it a bailout, a failure, or a fire sale, First Republic Bank was formally absorbed by JP Morgan Chase early this morning. Interest rat...
Mon, May 1 2023, 12:13 PM
The bond market is in a trifecta of trouble so far this morning. Just before the open, JPM announced that it was assuming the loans and deposits of F...
Fri, Apr 28 2023, 4:40 PM
Stronger Today, Sideways in General
Bonds improved overnight on a combination of friendly central bank news ...
Fri, Apr 28 2023, 4:19 PM
Mortgage rates fell nicely to start the week but only after rising rather abruptly in the previous two weeks. That said, short term ups and downs are ...
Fri, Apr 28 2023, 10:54 AM
Bonds were ushered into the domestic session in moderately stronger territory thanks to a friendly policy announcement from the Bank of Japan and soft...
Thu, Apr 27 2023, 4:38 PM
Bonds Reposition For "Higher For Longer" After GDP
Today's GDP number came in lower than expected at 1.1 vs ...
Thu, Apr 27 2023, 4:12 PM
Interest rates are determined by the price/yield of bonds. Bonds can take cues from several places, but inflation always matters. Inflation had been...
Thu, Apr 27 2023, 12:30 PM
The bond market is standing in front of the whack-a-mole game with only 2 holes. On one side is the mini banking crisis. On the other side is inflat...
Wed, Apr 26 2023, 3:48 PM
For mortgage rates and the broader bond market, everything has been fairly sideways in the bigger picture since the initial wave of bank drama in earl...
Wed, Apr 26 2023, 3:37 PM
Bonds Follow First Republic News Cycle; MBS Underperform
First Republic Bank (FRC) remains in focus as a tra...
Wed, Apr 26 2023, 11:23 AM
On the heels of yesterday's weak earnings, First Republic was back in the news this morning with reports that it's exploring a fire sale that would in...
Tue, Apr 25 2023, 4:48 PM
Mortgage rates are based on movement in the bond market. Bonds move for a variety of reasons, but one of the most basic is due to their function as a...
Tue, Apr 25 2023, 4:29 PM
Risk Aversion Returns. Bonds Like It
First Republic's weaker earnings set the tone in the overnight session ...
Tue, Apr 25 2023, 11:17 AM
Weaker earnings from a few notable names, including First Republic Bank... Weaker economic outlooks at home and abroad... Debt ceiling trepidation......
Mon, Apr 24 2023, 4:07 PM
While the news media bonfire on the recent LLPA tweak is only getting started, it's time for us to shift gears back to boring old mortgage rates (if y...
Mon, Apr 24 2023, 3:53 PM
Should Have Taken The 3-Day Weekend!
Every so often, the bond market has a Monday that does absolutely nothi...
Mon, Apr 24 2023, 1:05 PM
The bond market remains in an aggressively sideways holding pattern as traders wait for economic data and events that have enough street cred to meani...
Fri, Apr 21 2023, 5:06 PM
Seemingly overnight, the internet is awash with news regarding a "new," unfair tax on mortgage borrowers with higher credit scores. Some have gone so ...
Fri, Apr 21 2023, 5:01 PM
From Slightly Stronger to Slightly Weaker After PMI Data
The "data dependent" theme kept on rockin' all week...
Fri, Apr 21 2023, 1:06 PM
Bonds began the day in roughly unchanged territory and made some gains early. The 9:45am PMI data was the only item on the calendar and we'd consider...
Thu, Apr 20 2023, 4:36 PM
As is typical on any given Thursday, many media outlets are citing Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey. This week's installment suggests rates are highe...
Thu, Apr 20 2023, 10:36 AM
The bond market is certainly in a lull in terms of highly consequential data and events. It will be almost a full two weeks before the next Fed meeti...
Wed, Apr 19 2023, 4:52 PM
Mortgage rates had been just over 7% at the beginning of March. Then the failure of Silicon Valley Bank kicked off a mini banking crisis that; when c...
Wed, Apr 19 2023, 4:43 PM
Bonds Battle Back After Threatening The Range Yet Again
If yesterday looked like a challenge to the prevaili...
Wed, Apr 19 2023, 11:54 AM
The bond market is nothing if not willing to react to economic data these days. After all, that data will add up to a very big revelation regarding t...
Tue, Apr 18 2023, 4:54 PM
Mortgage rates had a calmer day on Tuesday compared to Monday with the average lender only moving up by less than an eighth of a percent. Lenders who...
Tue, Apr 18 2023, 4:42 PM
Super Sideways After AM Volatility
It turned out to be an intensely uneventful day for the bond market after...
Tue, Apr 18 2023, 12:34 PM
In a week without an obvious focus or flashpoint for the bond market, it wouldn't be too surprising to see traders fall back on a range-trading strate...
Mon, Apr 17 2023, 4:52 PM
After bottoming out at the lowest levels in months in the first week of April, mortgage rates have been rising fairly quickly. As of this afternoon, ...
Mon, Apr 17 2023, 4:35 PM
Frustratingly Persistent Selling Pressure in Bonds
Bonds got off to a rocky start well before the domestic s...
Mon, Apr 17 2023, 12:31 PM
If you had to reduce the past few weeks of bond market movement to the most basic of explanations, you might say that the jobs report on April 7th led...
Fri, Apr 14 2023, 3:57 PM
Does E-Commerce Surge Help Explain Friday's Sell-Off?
The day began with a puzzler: bonds sold off abruptly ...
Fri, Apr 14 2023, 12:32 PM
Perhaps there's some recency bias in play, but we're hard pressed to remember a big, obvious bond market sell-off in response to a big miss in Retail ...
Thu, Apr 13 2023, 5:34 PM
There are several ways to get an idea of where mortgage rates are on any given day, but if that day is a Thursday, you're most likely to get that idea...
Thu, Apr 13 2023, 5:16 PM
Longer Term Rates Lose Ground Despite Softer Inflation
Today's initial focus was on the big drop in Producer...
Thu, Apr 13 2023, 9:26 AM
If only the bond market cared as much about producer prices as it does for consumer prices! The latter had a fine showing yesterday with CPI coming i...
Wed, Apr 12 2023, 4:25 PM
If we could only blame one thing for the huge jump in interest rates seen since early 2022, it would be inflation. That fact led to a high degree of ...
Wed, Apr 12 2023, 4:11 PM
Mixed Reactions to CPI and Fed Minutes
This morning's "as-expected" inflation data was very well received by...
Wed, Apr 12 2023, 10:44 AM
The importance of economic reports like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) cannot be overstated in the current environment. Case in point, this month's i...
Tue, Apr 11 2023, 4:50 PM
Mortgage rates didn't do much today (the average lender drifted microscopically, and Wednesday's CPI data has infinitely more power to move the needle...
Tue, Apr 11 2023, 4:29 PM
All Eyes on CPI
Wednesday morning brings the most consequential economic data of the next several weeks in t...
