Fri, Mar 17 2023, 9:59 AM
While there are no new bank failures in play, financial markets have traumatic memories from last Friday and last weekend. Better safe than sorry hea...
Thu, Mar 16 2023, 4:04 PM
Bank Lifelines Lead Bond Market Reversal
Financial markets continue feeling out prospects for global banking...
Thu, Mar 16 2023, 4:00 PM
Mortgage rates are ideally determined only once per day, several hours into the business day. This gives mortgage lenders time to observe a baseline ...
Thu, Mar 16 2023, 11:21 AM
While yesterday's Credit Suisse concerns were serious, the last official major bank failure happened 5 days ago. That's a very long time considering t...
Wed, Mar 15 2023, 4:17 PM
Does Credit Suisse qualify as a "big bank" anymore? The company could be argued to be circling the drain for many months, but nonetheless holds hundr...
Wed, Mar 15 2023, 4:03 PM
You Have Gone Zero Days Without a Systemic Contagion Flare-Up
As of Tuesday, the global financial market was...
Wed, Mar 15 2023, 11:01 AM
After systemic banking fears died down earlier in the week, Credit Suisse and other European banks are saying "game on!" Stock prices of said banks l...
Tue, Mar 14 2023, 3:21 PM
Where's the 4th Biggest Bank Failure?
With the 2nd biggest bank failure in history on Friday and the 3rd big...
Tue, Mar 14 2023, 2:58 PM
Mortgage rates made substantial gains yesterday as financial markets underwent a classic flight to safety. This involves selling riskier assets like ...
Tue, Mar 14 2023, 9:47 AM
What a difference a little systemic banking crisis makes! Without the last 3 business days, today's CPI data may well have tipped the scales toward a...
Mon, Mar 13 2023, 4:13 PM
Breaking Down the Big Move in Rates and Considering The Road Ahead
The 2nd and 3rd largest bank failures in ...
Mon, Mar 13 2023, 2:53 PM
If you're just getting caught up or otherwise haven't heard, the biggest news in financial markets since last Friday has been the precipitous failure ...
Mon, Mar 13 2023, 8:59 AM
Despite the announcement of a Fed/Treasury/FDIC backstop for SVB and Signature Bank, financial markets are trading as if current events imply a sea ch...
Fri, Mar 10 2023, 3:20 PM
SVB > NFP = Supermassive Bond Rally
In a matter of 48 hours, Silicon Valley Bank has gone from being a compa...
Fri, Mar 10 2023, 12:36 PM
The most notable development on jobs day has stunningly turned out to be the trading that came before the jobs report in the overnight session. Bonds...
Thu, Mar 9 2023, 3:38 PM
While the Federal Reserve doesn't directly dictate mortgage rates, the outlook for Fed rate hikes matters a great deal. In the days and weeks leading...
Thu, Mar 9 2023, 3:24 PM
Thursday Was Nice, But It's All About Friday
There wasn't much for the bond market to sink its teeth into on...
Thu, Mar 9 2023, 9:11 AM
After a ho-hum and mostly sideways overnight session, bonds are starting the day with a surprisingly swift reaction to the Jobless Claims data. While...
Wed, Mar 8 2023, 4:40 PM
There's probably not going to be any way around it. However volatile rates may have been in the past 2 weeks, they're at risk of much larger swings i...
Wed, Mar 8 2023, 4:26 PM
Slightly Weaker, But It Could Have Been Worse
Bonds are heading out the door in only moderately weaker terri...
Wed, Mar 8 2023, 11:20 AM
The world "resilient" has frequently been repeated in the commentary over the past two weeks, and today is already shaping up to be worth adding to th...
Tue, Mar 7 2023, 4:11 PM
Jerome Powell is the Chair of the Federal Reserve--the entity that sets overnight lending rates in an attempt to keep inflation in a low, stable range...
Tue, Mar 7 2023, 3:53 PM
Rate Hike Expectations Ramp Up Post Powell
Even though Fed Chair Powell didn't say anything remarkably new o...
Tue, Mar 7 2023, 9:25 AM
5 weeks ago, markets digested a very ho-hum Fed announcement and rate hike, eventually rallying to the prevailing range floor just under 3.40% in 10yr...
Mon, Mar 6 2023, 4:11 PM
Stronger Start Gives Way to Weaker Finish
Bonds improved in overnight trading with most of the gains seen du...
Mon, Mar 6 2023, 4:10 PM
Mortgage rates have been hovering around the highest levels in months over the past 2 weeks, but had made a bit of progress by the end of last week. ...
Mon, Mar 6 2023, 12:21 PM
Bonds are starting out the new week with an overnight rally offset by domestic selling pressure. Yields were as low as 3.90 right as US traders were ...
Fri, Mar 3 2023, 4:43 PM
It's not a decisive victory, but rather, a nice way to end a week that had previously seen rates pushed over 7% for the first time in months. The bon...
Fri, Mar 3 2023, 4:36 PM
Bonds Start Strong and Finish Stronger Despite Decent Data
Today's trading action flew in the face of the pr...
Fri, Mar 3 2023, 1:43 PM
Bonds rallied nicely in the overnight session and extended the gains in the first few hours of domestic trading. The ISM Services data came in just a...
Thu, Mar 2 2023, 3:26 PM
5 Minutes of Selling, Then Sideways All Day
Bonds were moderately weaker overnight with EU inflation data le...
Thu, Mar 2 2023, 3:14 PM
Mortgage rates have been hit hard on two fronts over the past month. The first front is the obvious one: the bond market has moved in a way that forc...
Thu, Mar 2 2023, 12:14 PM
Rates are surging higher yet again. It wasn't necessarily destined to be the case. In fact, rates could just as easily be moving lower. the problem...
Wed, Mar 1 2023, 5:09 PM
If you want to see higher 30yr fixed mortgage rates, you'd have to go back to November 9th, 2022 after today. To be fair, that's been true on several...
Wed, Mar 1 2023, 5:04 PM
Unfriendly Breakout Driven by Data
Bond yields had been pushing up against 3.98% (10yr Treasury) for the pas...
Wed, Mar 1 2023, 10:16 AM
"Resilience" has been the theme of the past several trading days as 10yr yields have held the ceiling at 3.98%. That ceiling is now facing its most l...
Tue, Feb 28 2023, 4:08 PM
At face value, today was a loss for mortgage rates. The average lender is quoting a slightly higher rate for conventional 30yr fixed scenarios compar...
Tue, Feb 28 2023, 3:59 PM
More Signs of Resilience Amid Month-End Buying Spree
It was a generally resilient day for the bond market af...
Tue, Feb 28 2023, 9:54 AM
The message from today's overnight trading session is clear: European yields have broken well above their most recent ceiling after hotter inflation d...
Mon, Feb 27 2023, 4:31 PM
Mortgage rates began the new week on a modestly positive note. The average lender is now quoting conventional 30yr fixed loans at a slightly lower ra...
Mon, Feb 27 2023, 4:08 PM
Bonds Hold Ground Despite Onslaught of Corporate Issuance
The day began with bonds rallying back into positi...
Mon, Feb 27 2023, 11:29 AM
Many times, we can't categorize a week of bond trading without seeing how the subsequent week begins. With that in mind, last week is increasingly lo...
Fri, Feb 24 2023, 5:10 PM
Fri, Feb 24 2023, 5:08 PM
Weaker After PCE Data, But it Could Have Been Worse
PCE Inflation data has been relegated to an "occasional ...
Fri, Feb 24 2023, 12:31 PM
Both Wednesday and Thursday saw bonds hold their ground and make modest intraday improvements. Both days contributed to the possibility that Tuesday'...
Thu, Feb 23 2023, 4:01 PM
We keep pretty timely track of mortgage rates around here--timely enough to account for several changes on any given day. As such, we mean it when we...
Thu, Feb 23 2023, 3:52 PM
Ceiling Signs or Is It a Trap?
Bonds began the day in weaker territory with extra selling signals following ...
Thu, Feb 23 2023, 12:41 PM
At some point during the current selling spree, bonds will find a point of equilibrium where traders feel they've adequately protected themselves from...
Wed, Feb 22 2023, 5:25 PM
The Federal Reserve directly controls the shortest term lending rates. Mortgage rates are dictated by longer-term bonds in the open market, but trade...
Wed, Feb 22 2023, 3:55 PM
This Is How They Get Ya!
Bonds weathered the storm of a Treasury auction and the Fed meeting minutes today w...
