Fri, Jul 28 2023, 12:18 PM
Core PCE is often referred to as the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) has been one of the only few economic repo...
Thu, Jul 27 2023, 4:17 PM
The Fed hiked its policy rate yesterday and now today, mortgage rates jumped quite a bit higher. While there are already headlines drawing a connecti...
Thu, Jul 27 2023, 10:54 AM
Yesterday's closing headline and most condensed recap of Powell's press conference was simply: "data dependence continues." Indeed it does! This mor...
Wed, Jul 26 2023, 4:41 PM
As we discussed yesterday, it was entirely possible that today would bring a rate hike from the Fed that coincided with mortgage rates moving LOWER. ...
Wed, Jul 26 2023, 4:38 PM
Needle Threaded. Data Dependence Continues
In today's post-rate-hike press conference, Fed Chair Powell mana...
Wed, Jul 26 2023, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand been expanding at a modest moderate pace. Job gains have been robust in...
Wed, Jul 26 2023, 10:50 AM
While there's always a chance that any of the year's 8 scheduled Fed announcements will thread the needle, today's installment is just as likely to pr...
Tue, Jul 25 2023, 4:37 PM
Mortgage rates moved moderately higher for the average lender at some point over the past 2 days. Some lenders bumped rates yesterday afternoon and t...
Tue, Jul 25 2023, 4:29 PM
Just a Bit More Pre-Fed Positioning
It ended up being a fairly uneventful day for the bond market despite st...
Tue, Jul 25 2023, 12:32 PM
After the last CPI report sent rates back down to the prevailing summertime range, we figured we'd be waiting until tomorrow's Fed day for the next bi...
Mon, Jul 24 2023, 5:05 PM
It was a fairly uneventful day for mortgage rates for the average lender--at least until the very end of the business day. Mortgage lenders prefer to...
Mon, Jul 24 2023, 4:52 PM
Slightly Weaker Momentum, But No Change in The Bigger Picture
Today's most notable market movement surrounde...
Mon, Jul 24 2023, 10:57 AM
Early last week, we shifted away from waiting on additional rally momentum from the previous week's rally and into a holding pattern ahead of this wee...
Fri, Jul 21 2023, 4:09 PM
After rising somewhat sharply yesterday, mortgage rates managed to find their footing on Friday's market session. Bonds typically face more volatilit...
Fri, Jul 21 2023, 4:05 PM
Boring, Placeholder of a Day
Now that the riveting headline has your attention, you may be dismayed to learn...
Fri, Jul 21 2023, 9:46 AM
It's a summertime Friday in the bond market, so anything can happen. Bonds could undertake a huge rally or sell-off without any clear connection to a...
Thu, Jul 20 2023, 5:28 PM
Not Too Soft, Jerome
Bonds began the day in weaker territory but up until the AM econ data, yields were no h...
Thu, Jul 20 2023, 5:02 PM
Some of today's news says mortgage rates are much lower than last week. And here I am telling you they're higher. Who should you believe? Easy one! ...
Thu, Jul 20 2023, 11:55 AM
Watching the bond market in real time can be stressful if you work in a highly rate-sensitive industry. There's a tendency to get caught up in the in...
Wed, Jul 19 2023, 5:24 PM
Mortgage rates may have spiked to the highest levels in roughly 8 months two weeks ago, but they fully recovered as of last Thursday. Since then, ver...
Wed, Jul 19 2023, 5:07 PM
Working Our Way Back to Powell
The last Fed meeting in June wasn't a huge market mover in and of itself, but...
Wed, Jul 19 2023, 11:51 AM
After bonds rallied hard last week, EU bonds began to rally harder. This was most noticeable in the current week where 10yr Bund yields fell all the ...
Tue, Jul 18 2023, 4:33 PM
Mixed Reaction to Data. Range Remains Intact
European bonds set the tone in the overnight session after a no...
Tue, Jul 18 2023, 1:27 PM
Today's session was off to a stronger start thanks to a sharper rally in European bonds overnight, but domestic economic data pushed back early. This...
Mon, Jul 17 2023, 4:27 PM
Mortgage rates jumped a bit higher last Friday after dropping triumphantly during the first four days of the week. That bounce may have cast some dou...
Mon, Jul 17 2023, 4:17 PM
Slightly Stronger, Sideways, and Still Waiting
Monday's trading session offered little by way of anything si...
Mon, Jul 17 2023, 12:33 PM
With the heightened focus on economic data as a means to track progress on the Fed's inflation-fighting policies, and the reality of the data calendar...
Fri, Jul 14 2023, 4:12 PM
Good Times Still Mostly Rolling Despite Token Correction on Friday
Bonds sold off on Friday, with the easies...
Fri, Jul 14 2023, 3:51 PM
Mortgage rates spiked abruptly last week after several economic reports showed the economy doing better than expected. Now this week, key inflation da...
Fri, Jul 14 2023, 11:59 AM
Bonds rallied fairly hard during the first four days of the week, entirely restoring the ground lost in the previous week. Yesterday afternoon, we di...
Thu, Jul 13 2023, 5:13 PM
Farther vs further... One is for distance and the other means "additional/additionally." The dictionary may disagree, but only because too many of y...
Thu, Jul 13 2023, 4:58 PM
Willingness to Rally Without Much Motivation
Bonds put in a nice day of gains after a mixed performance in t...
Thu, Jul 13 2023, 11:50 AM
Thursday begins with 2 data points that could be traded either way. In one corner, we have another resilient reading in the Jobless Claims data (237k...
Wed, Jul 12 2023, 3:47 PM
Mortgage rates had been moving higher fairly rapidly over the past 2 weeks with the average lender easily into the 7% range for a top tier conventiona...
Wed, Jul 12 2023, 3:40 PM
Great Reaction to CPI, But What's Next?
Today's CPI data serves the important role of pushing back on the na...
Wed, Jul 12 2023, 10:49 AM
After plenty of anticipation over the past few days, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) arrived this morning with fairly good news for the bond market. C...
Tue, Jul 11 2023, 3:48 PM
Bonds Will Rally After CPI (Or They'll Sell Off)
Let's not build up the upcoming CPI data too much. It's im...
Tue, Jul 11 2023, 3:47 PM
While experts might be able to debate the underlying causes, they can all agree that inflation is the key reason that rates skyrocketed at the fastest...
Tue, Jul 11 2023, 9:43 AM
After last Friday's jobs report, it was clear that we'd be waiting for this Wednesday's CPI data as the next relevant input for the bond market. Desp...
Mon, Jul 10 2023, 4:10 PM
The most important thing to know about mortgage rates so far this week is that they lived through last week. Living through last week means rates rea...
Mon, Jul 10 2023, 3:53 PM
Sideways at Weak Levels Despite Monday's Rally
If we wanted to make the case for anything about the first tw...
Mon, Jul 10 2023, 11:30 AM
The week begins with bonds in modestly stronger territory after a bit of initial volatility. None of the trading after last Friday's NFP has mattered...
Fri, Jul 7 2023, 6:10 PM
Until a few weeks ago, it looked like we might have seen the last of 7% mortgage rates, but the last 2 weeks have been brutal. The culprit has been a ...
Fri, Jul 7 2023, 4:08 PM
NFP Threads The Needle, But Doesn't Deliver a Rally
Things could have gone better or worse today following t...
Fri, Jul 7 2023, 12:13 PM
Despite missing the forecast by just a bit, today's NFP number is largely as expected (209k vs 225k f'cast and unemployment 3.6 vs 3.6). Bonds initia...
Thu, Jul 6 2023, 4:51 PM
It seems like just last week (because it was) we were commenting on the extreme LACK of volatility in the mortgage rate landscape. Starting last Thur...
Thu, Jul 6 2023, 4:29 PM
Data Confirms Bond Market Fears
Yesterday's recap suggested that bonds were bracing for impact from incoming...
Thu, Jul 6 2023, 11:29 AM
We already know that bonds are especially sensitive to economic data right now, and we knew that today offered an uncommonly condensed schedule with s...
Wed, Jul 5 2023, 3:59 PM
While the mainstream mortgage rate indices continue operating in the mid-to-upper 6% range, actual rates are moving higher into the 7% range by the ti...
Wed, Jul 5 2023, 3:51 PM
Bonds Brace For Impact From Data
Bonds sold off somewhat abruptly on Wednesday with little by way of overt j...
