Wed, Jul 12 2023, 10:49 AM
After plenty of anticipation over the past few days, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) arrived this morning with fairly good news for the bond market. C...
Tue, Jul 11 2023, 3:48 PM
Bonds Will Rally After CPI (Or They'll Sell Off)
Let's not build up the upcoming CPI data too much. It's im...
Tue, Jul 11 2023, 3:47 PM
While experts might be able to debate the underlying causes, they can all agree that inflation is the key reason that rates skyrocketed at the fastest...
Tue, Jul 11 2023, 9:43 AM
After last Friday's jobs report, it was clear that we'd be waiting for this Wednesday's CPI data as the next relevant input for the bond market. Desp...
Mon, Jul 10 2023, 4:10 PM
The most important thing to know about mortgage rates so far this week is that they lived through last week. Living through last week means rates rea...
Mon, Jul 10 2023, 3:53 PM
Sideways at Weak Levels Despite Monday's Rally
If we wanted to make the case for anything about the first tw...
Mon, Jul 10 2023, 11:30 AM
The week begins with bonds in modestly stronger territory after a bit of initial volatility. None of the trading after last Friday's NFP has mattered...
Fri, Jul 7 2023, 6:10 PM
Until a few weeks ago, it looked like we might have seen the last of 7% mortgage rates, but the last 2 weeks have been brutal. The culprit has been a ...
Fri, Jul 7 2023, 4:08 PM
NFP Threads The Needle, But Doesn't Deliver a Rally
Things could have gone better or worse today following t...
Fri, Jul 7 2023, 12:13 PM
Despite missing the forecast by just a bit, today's NFP number is largely as expected (209k vs 225k f'cast and unemployment 3.6 vs 3.6). Bonds initia...
Thu, Jul 6 2023, 4:51 PM
It seems like just last week (because it was) we were commenting on the extreme LACK of volatility in the mortgage rate landscape. Starting last Thur...
Thu, Jul 6 2023, 4:29 PM
Data Confirms Bond Market Fears
Yesterday's recap suggested that bonds were bracing for impact from incoming...
Thu, Jul 6 2023, 11:29 AM
We already know that bonds are especially sensitive to economic data right now, and we knew that today offered an uncommonly condensed schedule with s...
Wed, Jul 5 2023, 3:59 PM
While the mainstream mortgage rate indices continue operating in the mid-to-upper 6% range, actual rates are moving higher into the 7% range by the ti...
Wed, Jul 5 2023, 3:51 PM
Bonds Brace For Impact From Data
Bonds sold off somewhat abruptly on Wednesday with little by way of overt j...
Wed, Jul 5 2023, 12:00 PM
It may be Wednesday--a day that typically marks the midpoint of the bond market's work week--and it may be the week of the month with several of the b...
Mon, Jul 3 2023, 11:55 AM
Monday brings a courtesy trading day for bond market participants. Those who want/need to trade can do so while those who wanted the 4 day weekend do...
Fri, Jun 30 2023, 4:20 PM
Month/Quarter-End Came Early
As we witness the absolute lack of any meaningful volatility at the 3pm CME clo...
Fri, Jun 30 2023, 9:27 AM
Whereas Thursday's data was clearly bad for bonds/rates (ultimately creating a challenge to the 3.84 range ceiling), Friday's key morning data is rela...
Thu, Jun 29 2023, 4:50 PM
Despite other indices showing the average 30yr fixed rate in the 6.7 range, the actual average (after accounting for points) is once again over 7%. W...
Thu, Jun 29 2023, 4:33 PM
Bonds Crushed by Data, But Technically Still in The Range
At many points in the past week, we've lamented th...
Thu, Jun 29 2023, 9:44 AM
Technical analysis provides an easy entry point for folks who want to talk about what the markets might do next. It is made all the more alluring due...
Wed, Jun 28 2023, 4:25 PM
The bond market is waiting for bigger news on inflation and the economy, and traders aren't pretending otherwise. Why does that matter? Traders dete...
Wed, Jun 28 2023, 4:17 PM
Modest Relief Rally as Headline Risk Comes and Goes
Unlike yesterday, bonds didn't have any market moving ec...
Wed, Jun 28 2023, 12:54 PM
Unlike yesterday, there is no meaningful economic data to move the needle this morning. Bonds continue biding their time, waiting for "meaningful." ...
Tue, Jun 27 2023, 5:25 PM
Tuesday continued the same theme of incredibly modest movement inside an incredibly narrow range. The average lender is still just under 7% for a con...
Tue, Jun 27 2023, 5:11 PM
Logical Weakness After Stronger Data
Forget "love." Today data hurts. Durable Goods fired a warning shot a...
Tue, Jun 27 2023, 11:29 AM
Forget "love." Today data hurts. Durable Goods fired a warning shot at 8:30am. Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales finished the job at 10am. Wi...
Mon, Jun 26 2023, 4:23 PM
Only So Many Ways to Say Sideways
It was an uneventful, boring, uninspiring, and unenlightening summertime M...
Mon, Jun 26 2023, 4:03 PM
The average 30yr fixed mortgage rate has been holding just under 7% for the entire month, making June the least volatile month in well over a year. A...
Mon, Jun 26 2023, 12:46 PM
Here we are (still) with 30yr yields closer to 4% than 3%, economic growth softening, leading indicators pointing to further contraction, and inflatio...
Fri, Jun 23 2023, 5:17 PM
A majority of the housing market data on any given month tends to come out mostly on the same week. This was that week and the takeaway was that the h...
Fri, Jun 23 2023, 3:24 PM
Still Waiting For a Breakout After Friday's Uneventful Strength
Friday began with solid gains courtesy of we...
Fri, Jun 23 2023, 11:19 AM
Granted, today's only available domestic economic data is the S&P PMIs, but the market could have justified either a stronger or weaker response. The...
Thu, Jun 22 2023, 4:35 PM
One important disclaimer right upfront: there's no real need to concern yourself with recent day-to-day movement in mortgage rates if your goal is to ...
Thu, Jun 22 2023, 4:06 PM
Powell Says Old Things in New Ways and Bonds Don't Like It
It was day 2 for Fed Chair Powell's congressional...
Thu, Jun 22 2023, 1:51 PM
Have you heard the one about the 3.72-3.84 range? While we haven't seen much of the ceiling this week, the floor is getting a workout. Yesterday aft...
Wed, Jun 21 2023, 3:46 PM
No Whammies From Powell, 20yr Auction Helps
After a clear rejection of the 3.72% floor in 10yr yields overni...
Wed, Jun 21 2023, 3:43 PM
Any discussion about mortgage rates rising or falling in the month of June requires the caveat about the trend being exceptionally flat in the bigger ...
Wed, Jun 21 2023, 1:08 PM
While it would be nice to have our 3.4-3.6 range back, the past few weeks have seen the adoption of a new 3.72-3.84 range. While ranges this narrow o...
Tue, Jun 20 2023, 4:56 PM
Deceptively Uneventful Trading Day For Bonds
Right out of the gate this morning, bonds responded to the mass...
Tue, Jun 20 2023, 4:31 PM
Mortgage rates are primarily driven by changes in the value of certain bonds that trade on the open market. Those bonds (mortgage-backed securities o...
Tue, Jun 20 2023, 12:42 PM
Bonds started the holiday-shortened week at moderately higher yields, but rallied several bps during European hours. 8:30am econ data pushed back, er...
Fri, Jun 16 2023, 6:34 PM
Rates may not be as high as they were several months ago or as low as they were 5 weeks ago, but they're close enough to either boundary that the thre...
Fri, Jun 16 2023, 4:02 PM
Rangebound Weakness With Fed Speakers Keeping Bonds Wary
Bonds might have had a chance to hold steady today-...
Fri, Jun 16 2023, 12:22 PM
Heading into this week's CPI and Fed Day combo, we expected bonds to be broadly sideways with elevated volatility. But rather than give new direction...
Thu, Jun 15 2023, 4:12 PM
Earl Data-Driven Rally And Not Much Drama After That
Despite a slew of other economic data that was stronger...
Thu, Jun 15 2023, 3:26 PM
Not to be confused with the big monthly jobs report (the one that includes a count of "nonfarm payrolls" as well as the official unemployment rate in ...
Thu, Jun 15 2023, 9:55 AM
Last week's biggest bond rally occurred on Thursday, immediately following the release of the highest Jobless Claims number since late 2021. Exactly ...
Wed, Jun 14 2023, 4:55 PM
As was widely expected, the Federal Reserve held rates steady today. Mortgage rates were also generally steady, but the two have little to do with on...
