Wed, Feb 22 2023, 12:05 PM
When you see the phrase "Fed Minutes" don't confuse it for the "Fed Announcement." Both events involve a Fed meeting, but one of these things is not ...
Tue, Feb 21 2023, 4:15 PM
On November 9th, 2022, the average lender was quoting 30yr fixed rates well over 7%. On day later, that figure dropped to 6.625%. It was one of the ...
Tue, Feb 21 2023, 4:05 PM
Data Fuels Ongoing Scramble Toward Higher Rates
Almost the entire month of February has been a mad dash from...
Tue, Feb 21 2023, 11:49 AM
Heading into the 3 day weekend, we knew there was a risk that Friday's rally was driven by position squaring (i.e. traders buying bonds in order to co...
Fri, Feb 17 2023, 4:20 PM
Legit Buying Demand or Position Squaring?
"Position squaring" is fancy market jargon that refers to closing ...
Fri, Feb 17 2023, 9:42 AM
The current landscape is fairly simple. The bond market has been in the midst of a "repricing" event following the jobs report at the beginning of th...
Thu, Feb 16 2023, 3:31 PM
Another Day, Another Sell-Off
Bonds may not have sold off in an overly excessive manner today, but they sold...
Thu, Feb 16 2023, 2:53 PM
First off, I apologize. You're right. How would I know exactly what you've been told about mortgage rates today? I can only draw the same sort of g...
Thu, Feb 16 2023, 9:27 AM
The bond market has specialized in playing defense for most of February as economic data and consistently hawkish Fed messaging paints a bleak pictur...
Wed, Feb 15 2023, 3:58 PM
Rates have been rising at a reasonably quick pace for most of February. The process began in earnest after labor market data on February 3rd. Market...
Wed, Feb 15 2023, 3:40 PM
More Yield Curve Musings and Retail Sales Reaction
Retail Sales was today's big ticket data point and it cam...
Wed, Feb 15 2023, 12:08 PM
Yesterday's CPI data validated the Fed's constant refrain regarding persistent inflation. This morning's Retail Sales data (for the month of January)...
Tue, Feb 14 2023, 3:25 PM
More Data to Prove The Fed's Point; Rates Don't Like It
It will take one of two things for the current risin...
Tue, Feb 14 2023, 3:11 PM
The Fed generally wants annual inflation to be around 2% at the core level. "Core" is fancy market jargon for an economic metric that excludes some o...
Tue, Feb 14 2023, 9:53 AM
Given that today's bond trading volume has already eclipsed yesterday's, it's fair to say traders were every bit as anxious to trade this data as we e...
Mon, Feb 13 2023, 5:20 PM
Before you let the promise of volatility alarm you, keep in mind that it cuts both ways. In other words, mortgage rate volatility can result in rates...
Mon, Feb 13 2023, 4:14 PM
Which CPI Number Matters Most and How Wide is The Potential Range of Reactions?
Monday turned out to be an i...
Mon, Feb 13 2023, 12:11 PM
Bonds got a good amount of selling out of the way last week as markets finally picked up what the Fed has been putting down for months. All it took w...
Fri, Feb 10 2023, 4:51 PM
Fri, Feb 10 2023, 4:15 PM
Bonds Keep Fading; Cue The CPI Anxiety
This morning's commentary headline was "if bonds aren't rallying, the...
Fri, Feb 10 2023, 11:25 AM
At the risk of repeating a common thesis in recent days, bonds had a choice to make at the end of January. The decision was whether or not a rally of...
Thu, Feb 9 2023, 3:11 PM
Gains Evaporate After Weaker Auction; Sideways Volatility Expected Ahead of CPI
CPI, NFP, CPI, Fed Day, NFP,...
Thu, Feb 9 2023, 1:58 PM
In general, this has been a week of correction and reversal for mortgage rates. After hitting the lowest levels in more than 4 months last week, they...
Thu, Feb 9 2023, 12:17 PM
The order of business this week has been fairly simple. The market had been telling itself that the Fed would end up cutting rates by the end of 2023...
Wed, Feb 8 2023, 4:32 PM
Today's mortgage rate recap is largely similar to yesterday's--not because the same things happened, but rather because the bigger stories and bigger ...
Wed, Feb 8 2023, 4:17 PM
Strong Auction Helps, But Not Enough to Get Rates Back Into The Recent Range
Without much economic data this...
Wed, Feb 8 2023, 9:57 AM
One of the biggest uncertainties of the week was resolved on Tuesday with Fed Chair Powell answering questions about the policy outlook without any re...
Tue, Feb 7 2023, 4:35 PM
The majority of January was characterized by sharp decline in mortgage rate volatility and the lowest rates in several months, the first week of Febru...
Tue, Feb 7 2023, 3:19 PM
Bonds Tried (And Failed) to Sustain Post-Powell Rally
After much anticipation and defensive positioning, the...
Tue, Feb 7 2023, 9:11 AM
In the wake of last week's strong economic data on Friday and follow-through weakness in overseas markets, traders are gearing up for additional Fed r...
Mon, Feb 6 2023, 3:34 PM
Mortgage rates were already under quite a bit of pressure on Friday following the stunningly strong jobs report in the morning. Strong economic data ...
Mon, Feb 6 2023, 3:23 PM
Suddenly Scared About Powell and Supply
Most of today's market movement was in the books within the first ha...
Mon, Feb 6 2023, 9:47 AM
Friday's strong jobs report and ISM data caused obvious, immediate problems for rates, but bonds held their ground fairly well all things considered. ...
Fri, Feb 3 2023, 4:34 PM
Interest rates take cues from several places. Regularly scheduled economic data is always a consideration because a stronger economy implies more grow...
Fri, Feb 3 2023, 4:31 PM
Perfect Storm Leaves Rate Range Perfectly Intact
Coming into the week, yields were near the top of a narrow ...
Fri, Feb 3 2023, 12:34 PM
While we may not have a great explanation or even the capacity to believe it, nonfarm payrolls came in at 517,000 this morning versus a median forecas...
Thu, Feb 2 2023, 3:52 PM
Mortgage rates responded favorably to yesterday's press conference with Fed Chair Powell. We discussed that move in detail in yesterday's commentary:...
Thu, Feb 2 2023, 3:52 PM
Bonds Talked Into Modest Gains by Europe
US bond traders didn't necessarily come into work with the intentio...
Thu, Feb 2 2023, 11:21 AM
Today's big story is the European bond market's reaction to the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement. The hike was as-expected, but the ECB also ...
Wed, Feb 1 2023, 4:48 PM
For some, this will be old hat. For others, there's a mystifying dynamic that demands explanation. The confusion stems from years of being condition...
Wed, Feb 1 2023, 4:08 PM
Markets Surprisingly Surprised by Unsurprising Powell Comments
We were pretty sure we knew what Powell would...
Wed, Feb 1 2023, 2:01 PM
Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remain...
Wed, Feb 1 2023, 11:44 AM
Long gone are the days where the market waits to find out he size of a rate hike/cut. The current regime clearly communicates these things ahead of t...
Tue, Jan 31 2023, 4:02 PM
Mortgage rates have been roughly in line with last week's latest levels at the beginning of the current week. That means they're fairly close to the ...
Tue, Jan 31 2023, 3:19 PM
What to Expect From Fed Day
Markets can see the changes in inflation data and traders are eager to refine th...
Tue, Jan 31 2023, 8:54 AM
The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is an economic report that was never on our radar as a top tier market mover in the past. Then in early 2022, Fed Cha...
Mon, Jan 30 2023, 4:40 PM
Skittish Over Data and Central Bankers
With no relevant market movers on the US calendar today, it was notab...
Mon, Jan 30 2023, 10:38 AM
Unlike last week, the present example offers multiple scheduled economic reports that have consistent track records of causing market movement. Key e...
Fri, Jan 27 2023, 4:57 PM
5 for 5 on Uneventful Trading Days; Next Week Should be Different
Heading into this week, if we had to guess...
Fri, Jan 27 2023, 4:43 PM
There are those who always try to portray the glass as being half full when it comes to the housing market. Then there are those who love a full glass...
