Thu, Jan 13 2022, 11:12 AM
Whether we refer to it as a correction or consolidation, bonds have enjoyed a few days of moderate gains after selling off abruptly last week. Today'...
Wed, Jan 12 2022, 4:45 PM
Mixed Signals in Data, Events, and The Market Reaction.
The hotly anticipated CPI data came in roughly in li...
Wed, Jan 12 2022, 4:25 PM
Interest rates are typically determined by bond market. Mortgage rates, for instance, are directly tied to mortgage-specific bonds know as mortgage-b...
Wed, Jan 12 2022, 11:36 AM
Yesterday's resilient trading day strengthened the case for a corrective (or consolidative ?) bounce after last week's big yield spike. Traders (a...
Tue, Jan 11 2022, 4:39 PM
2022 has gotten off to a bad start for the bond market and consequently, mortgage rates. The pace has been on the aggressive side with the average ...
Tue, Jan 11 2022, 4:12 PM
Is it Time To Get Excited About a Bounce?
As per the recent norm, bonds were fairly flat overnight and began...
Tue, Jan 11 2022, 10:31 AM
Bonds were unchanged to slightly stronger for most of the overnight session, but are now losing ground modestly. In the context of the previous 2 tra...
Mon, Jan 10 2022, 3:47 PM
A Glimmer of Resilience and a Primer on Which MBS Coupon to Watch
Bonds began the day by resuming the sellin...
Mon, Jan 10 2022, 3:24 PM
Last week wasn't a great one for mortgage rates. Most lenders were roughly a quarter of a point higher on a conventional 30yr fixed scenario by Fri...
Mon, Jan 10 2022, 12:16 PM
Last week saw bonds sell off at their fastest pace in at least 9 months on a combination of a hawkish pivot from the Fed and paradoxical omicron optim...
Fri, Jan 7 2022, 5:00 PM
Seemingly overnight, the mortgage rate narrative has changed rather drastically, at least in relative terms. While rates had risen gradually from near...
Fri, Jan 7 2022, 4:03 PM
Is It The Jobs Report, The Fed, or Something Else?
It's been quite a week of losses for the bond market. Wh...
Fri, Jan 7 2022, 11:24 AM
Nonfarm payrolls came in at 199k versus a median forecast of 400k. On almost any NFP Friday before the pandemic, this would be worth some positivity ...
Thu, Jan 6 2022, 4:18 PM
Stability, But at a Cost; Does NFP Matter Tomorrow?
In terms of intraday volatility, today was arguably the ...
Thu, Jan 6 2022, 3:53 PM
Regular readers know that we're fond of setting the weekly record straight in cases where day-to-day rate movements paint a drastically different pict...
Thu, Jan 6 2022, 12:22 PM
After watching the same consolidation pattern for the past few months and feeling that yields were safely below the upper boundary, that boundary has ...
Wed, Jan 5 2022, 4:39 PM
Big Sell-Off Following Fed Minutes
Even though the bond market thought it knew all it needed to know about t...
Wed, Jan 5 2022, 3:58 PM
The following represents only a portion of the full list of newswire headlines associated with today's Fed Minutes release, but these are likely the m...
Tue, Jan 4 2022, 4:49 PM
Mortgage rates had been drifting modestly higher in general in the past 2 weeks, but the pace is accelerating in the new year. For some lenders, this...
Tue, Jan 4 2022, 4:30 PM
Bonds Still Selling, But at a Slower Pace
In terms of volume, participation, and holiday closures, today was...
Tue, Jan 4 2022, 9:43 AM
Tokyo and London are back in the office today after yesterday's holiday closures. EU yields moved modestly lower from their highest levels in roughly...
Mon, Jan 3 2022, 4:13 PM
The year is not off to a great start for mortgage rates . At the end of last week, we were already looking at the highest levels in months. The s...
Mon, Jan 3 2022, 3:59 PM
Unhappy New Year For Bonds So Far
The first trading day of the new year ended up being one of the worst in m...
Mon, Jan 3 2022, 9:54 AM
Both Tokyo and London were closed overnight, which didn't do anything to help the light liquidity environment of the winter holidays. Domestic accoun...
Fri, Dec 31 2021, 10:30 AM
It's a sign of the times that the only conversations on MBS Live's MBS Community pertain to this morning's Encompass outage. Actually, it's a sign of ...
Thu, Dec 30 2021, 3:22 PM
Bonds Snap Back Into Holiday Mode
Wednesday's abrupt sell-off increasingly looks like the market's way of ge...
Thu, Dec 30 2021, 3:15 PM
Mortgage rates began the week in decent shape, but moved higher somewhat abruptly yesterday. Context is important though. The smallest increment of ...
Thu, Dec 30 2021, 10:19 AM
From the early days of the pandemic, one of the most important realities to consider was that of the eventual recovery, both from the most abject phas...
Wed, Dec 29 2021, 5:10 PM
What's Up With The Big Sell-Off in Bonds?
The omicron narrative is one reason being tossed around for today'...
Wed, Dec 29 2021, 8:57 AM
Treasuries trade almost 24 hours a day (assuming London and Tokyo are not out on holiday), but if the domestic bond market has an unofficial opening b...
Tue, Dec 28 2021, 4:30 PM
Mortgage rates hit their highest level in 2 weeks heading into Christmas weekend. The average lender raised costs by a very small amount again on Mond...
Tue, Dec 28 2021, 4:28 PM
Every Bit As Quiet As It Was Supposed To Be
There's really no way to predict the future when it comes to rat...
Tue, Dec 28 2021, 11:21 AM
Like Monday, bonds traded flat to slightly stronger in Asia, were closed in London, popped a bit higher in early domestic trading, and are now droppin...
Mon, Dec 27 2021, 3:23 PM
Bonds Sticking to Uneventful Script
There was little to observe and even less to report on today's bon marke...
Mon, Dec 27 2021, 12:58 PM
While bonds aren't closed for business this week, it wouldn't much matter if they were--at least not for the average mortgage rate watcher. That's no...
Wed, Dec 22 2021, 7:48 PM
Mortgage rates continued higher for the third straight day on Wednesday. This brings the average lender to the highest levels in exactly 2 weeks. But ...
Wed, Dec 22 2021, 4:02 PM
Sideways, Boring, and Slightly Stronger
10yr futures contract volume was roughly 600k by 3pm. That's on par...
Wed, Dec 22 2021, 11:05 AM
If you've grown tired of hearing about holiday related illiquidity in the bond market or you otherwise are fully up to speed on its implications, you'...
Tue, Dec 21 2021, 4:41 PM
Incidental Weakness
This morning's commentary covers everything that needs to be said in today's closing com...
Tue, Dec 21 2021, 10:20 AM
One of the best things to keep in mind not just for financial markets but for life in general is that explanations are rarely black and white when it ...
Mon, Dec 20 2021, 5:28 PM
For most lenders, mortgage rates edged slightly higher at the start of the holiday-shortened week. The exception would be among those lenders who made...
Mon, Dec 20 2021, 4:54 PM
Small Scale Volatility Leaves Bonds Slightly Weaker
The day began on a modestly positive note and ended with...
Mon, Dec 20 2021, 11:11 AM
Despite a bit of 2-way trading, bonds are starting the day in slightly stronger territory. Pandemic concerns remain the most obvious source of inspir...
Fri, Dec 17 2021, 6:45 PM
Sure, we could write a headline that attempts to distill the concept of a big picture struggle between the forces exerting upward pressure on rates an...
Fri, Dec 17 2021, 3:50 PM
Mixed Performance Amid Light Liquidity and Fed Comments
The bond market shifted into a predictable gear for ...
Fri, Dec 17 2021, 11:29 AM
3 hawkish central bank announcements on Wed/Thu have been no match for the bullish impulses at the end of the week. These include but are not limited...
Thu, Dec 16 2021, 4:55 PM
Bonds Defy Logic, Rallying Nicely After Central Banks Tighten
There are only so many ways to explain what ha...
Thu, Dec 16 2021, 9:45 AM
If you're not familiar with Fezzik from The Princess Bride, you have more important things to do than read about what's going on in the bond market (b...
Wed, Dec 15 2021, 4:25 PM
Mortgage rates were fairly flat heading into today's important Fed announcement. Despite arguably receiving bad news, they didn't move too much higher...
Wed, Dec 15 2021, 4:22 PM
Surprisingly Resilient After Fed Doubles Tapering Pace
After implementing the tapering plan 6 short weeks ag...
