Mon, Apr 25 2022, 4:11 PM
New Bounce, But Same Question
Rates rallied briskly today as investors focused on China's covid lockdowns, o...
Mon, Apr 25 2022, 3:50 PM
Thursday and Friday weren't great days for the mortgage market last week. Rates jumped sharply on Thursday and then drifted just a bit higher on Frid...
Mon, Apr 25 2022, 9:42 AM
Global equities indices fell sharply at various opening bells (and the closing bell too, as far as Asia was concerned). This was less of a concern fo...
Fri, Apr 22 2022, 6:26 PM
It's hard to avoid bad news about rising mortgage rates in 2022, but you can't believe everything you read. It is true that mortgage rates have been ...
Fri, Apr 22 2022, 3:26 PM
Abnormally Uneventful Friday For Bonds
Whether we're talking about actual Fridays or Thursdays that fall bef...
Thu, Apr 21 2022, 4:07 PM
Thursday marks the weekly release of the industry's most widely cited mortgage rate survey. All manner of news outlets rely on the survey to generate...
Thu, Apr 21 2022, 3:38 PM
Daly Upstages Powell in Today's Fed Drama
With both Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Lagarde scheduled to ...
Thu, Apr 21 2022, 11:35 AM
The centerpiece of today's event calendar is a panel discussion on the global economy hosted by the IMF. Both Powell and ECB President Lagarde are on...
Wed, Apr 20 2022, 4:01 PM
Strong Auction Lost in Shuffle as Bonds Enjoy an Easy Win
Sometimes during massive selling sprees, the tradi...
Wed, Apr 20 2022, 3:56 PM
Mortgage rates hit their highest levels since 2009 yesterday amid one of the most abrupt spikes seen during the adult lifetime of the average prospe...
Wed, Apr 20 2022, 11:27 AM
We could certainly discuss the fact that bonds are improving so far today amid a strong curve flattening trade, but recent experience suggests we wait...
Tue, Apr 19 2022, 6:03 PM
Where do we even begin the conversation about mortgage rates on any given day in the spring of 2022? The news has frequently fallen into the category...
Tue, Apr 19 2022, 5:25 PM
Fed Speakers and Corporate Bonds Keep Negative Momentum Intact
Bonds came into the domestic session moderate...
Tue, Apr 19 2022, 11:20 AM
Another day, another brutal sell-off with little by way of compelling justification. This one may actually be more simple than it seems at first glan...
Mon, Apr 18 2022, 4:50 PM
The average mortgage lender was quoting conventional 30yr fixed rates of 5.25% last Monday for top tier scenarios--the highest since late 2018. Rat...
Mon, Apr 18 2022, 4:36 PM
Flat Day For MBS as Markets Wait For More Activity
With most of Europe out of the office, volume got off to ...
Mon, Apr 18 2022, 12:14 PM
With it being the Monday after a 3.5 day weekend, with London closed, and no significant data on the econ calendar, today's marching orders are to act...
Thu, Apr 14 2022, 2:49 PM
Here's a happy but unhappy coincidence: weekly rate surveys (which often lag reality) and actual daily mortgage rates are actually on the same page to...
Thu, Apr 14 2022, 2:35 PM
Another False Alarm Turns Into Bond Market Beat-Down
If today's bond market behavior wasn't making us cry, w...
Wed, Apr 13 2022, 4:47 PM
When it comes to financial markets and mortgage rates, things rarely happen in straight lines. Each time rates spiked to new multi-year highs in rece...
Wed, Apr 13 2022, 4:01 PM
How About Now (For A Ceiling in Rates) ?
Producer prices surged much higher than expected in this morning's ...
Wed, Apr 13 2022, 12:09 PM
The bond market is running out of potential market movers on this holiday-shortened week with this afternoon's 30yr bond auction and tomorrow's ECB an...
Tue, Apr 12 2022, 5:03 PM
There's no question that today was one of the few recent examples of a "good day" for most of the bond market and, consequently, mortgage rates. The ...
Tue, Apr 12 2022, 4:30 PM
Nice Data-Driven Rally, But Keep Recent False Starts in Mind
Incessant trends toward higher rates bring the ...
Tue, Apr 12 2022, 12:11 PM
CPI (the Consumer Price Index) is arguably the most important data point for interest rates in a world where inflation is at the highest levels since ...
Mon, Apr 11 2022, 4:01 PM
The last few days of March offered some hope that 2022's massive rate spike might be slowing down. The first few days of April crushed those hopes a...
Mon, Apr 11 2022, 3:51 PM
Running Out of Ways to Say "Higher Rates"
Market watchers are at risk of major desensitization when it comes...
Mon, Apr 11 2022, 11:30 AM
Bonds lost ground early in the overnight session before buyers stepped in to defend the new multi-year highs in yields across the curve. Japanese inve...
Fri, Apr 8 2022, 4:20 PM
Rates Keep Playing Defense Ahead of Volatile, Holiday-Shortened Week
Wednesday's Fed Minutes might have serv...
Fri, Apr 8 2022, 11:42 AM
Hopeful consolidation... Crushing defeat... Hopeful consolidation... Crushing defeat. We've hesitated time and again to endorse too much hope for a t...
Thu, Apr 7 2022, 4:34 PM
Mortgage rates are based primarily on the price of mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which are basically bonds that allow investors to lend money to m...
Thu, Apr 7 2022, 3:54 PM
Bad Day For The 10yr But Not For MBS
The spread between 2 and 10yr yields has widened more than 27bps in 2 d...
Thu, Apr 7 2022, 11:53 AM
Following the second shallow inversion of the 2yr vs 10yr yield curve on Tuesday, 10yr yields have been surging higher while 2s recover. The curve is...
Wed, Apr 6 2022, 4:48 PM
Mortgage rates jumped significantly higher this morning with the average conventional conforming 30yr fixed rate moving well over 5%. The most recent...
Wed, Apr 6 2022, 4:24 PM
Bonds Doing Admirable Job of Digesting Harsh New Reality
Yesterday's comments from Fed Vice Chair Brainard e...
Wed, Apr 6 2022, 11:51 AM
There is a highly reliable track record of the bond market moving quickly to get in position for the Fed's expected course of action. When those expe...
Tue, Apr 5 2022, 5:07 PM
Rates have been rising rapidly in 2022 in general as the market quickly repositions for a big shift in Fed policy. The Fed sets short term rates and b...
Tue, Apr 5 2022, 4:43 PM
Market's Fear is Bigger Than The Fed's Appetite For Destruction
The Fed is on a mission to destroy demand fo...
Tue, Apr 5 2022, 12:19 PM
Sorry... I couldn't think of any "B" words for "weakest levels."
Our big project of the past week and a half has been to assess the possibility of a...
Mon, Apr 4 2022, 4:01 PM
Curve Steepening Helps MBS, but Keeps Broader Indecision Intact
We're looking to the first few days of April...
Mon, Apr 4 2022, 4:00 PM
Mortgage rates are fresh off their best week since early March in terms of outright improvement. The catch is that they were at the highest levels ...
Mon, Apr 4 2022, 11:38 AM
NFP Friday rarely falls on the first day of the month/quarter. The last time it happened in April was 2016, and it was wholly uneventful. The same m...
Fri, Apr 1 2022, 5:26 PM
Home prices have been on a tear since late 2020 despite generally higher rates in 2021. In the past few months, rates have upped the ante by surging a...
Fri, Apr 1 2022, 5:20 PM
Rate Recovery Stumbles, But Jury Still Out
As we said in the run up to today's trading session, we need to s...
Fri, Apr 1 2022, 12:09 PM
Bonds got off to a much weaker start on Friday as "new month, new quarter" tradeflows leave sellers firmly in control. This began right out of the ga...
Thu, Mar 31 2022, 4:56 PM
The headline "lowest rates in a week" may not be too sensational or even that informative at first glance, but in today's case, it's big news. You'd ...
Thu, Mar 31 2022, 4:34 PM
Mixed Day For Bonds, But Same Opportunities (And Risks) Remain
The day began fairly well for the bond market...
Thu, Mar 31 2022, 10:53 AM
This is the "to be or not to be" question for the bond market right now. Said differently, have we suffered sufficient slings and arrows for investor...
Wed, Mar 30 2022, 3:49 PM
Yields Bounce Back Nicely, Ending Lower For 2nd Straight Day
Back to back rally days are a rarity in March. ...
Wed, Mar 30 2022, 3:18 PM
There hasn't been much to get excited about when it comes to mortgage rates in the month of March--at least not in a positive way. Negative excitemen...
