Tue, Oct 26 2021, 4:08 PM
Another Green Day, But Can We Trust It?
Bonds were briefly weaker mid-morning, but rallied back to close at ...
Tue, Oct 26 2021, 9:28 AM
At the start of the trading session, Treasuries have the distinction of trading through the overnight hours with the lowest volume and volatility in m...
Mon, Oct 25 2021, 4:17 PM
Nice Recovery, But Big-Picture Damage Remains
Monday could have been worse. Bonds started out in weaker ter...
Mon, Oct 25 2021, 3:45 PM
Mortgage rates began the day right in line with Friday afternoon's latest levels. Lenders likely would have been able to offer lower rates if the bond...
Mon, Oct 25 2021, 10:48 AM
10yr yields hit a long-term ceiling of 1.776 on March 30th, 2021 as bonds quickly priced in vaccine efficacy and fiscal policy. Several sideways mont...
Fri, Oct 22 2021, 4:45 PM
Solid Afternoon Bounce, But Context Matters
There's surely some great analogy to be made about perspective (...
Fri, Oct 22 2021, 10:04 AM
To buy the dip or not to buy the dip (in bond prices). That is the question faced by traders today as 10yr yields hit the 1.70% technical level in af...
Thu, Oct 21 2021, 4:21 PM
Fear of The I-Word
Today's 5yr TIPS auction met with heavy demand for inflation protection. While that didn...
Thu, Oct 21 2021, 10:51 AM
Considering yields have pushed to new long-term highs on 3 out of the past 3 days, it's safe to say that bonds are "trending" as opposed to flat/sidew...
Wed, Oct 20 2021, 4:24 PM
Sideways to Slightly Weaker After Another Long-Term High
10yr yields hit a 5-month high early in the overnig...
Wed, Oct 20 2021, 3:44 PM
Mortgage rates began moving off longer term lows in early August and that trend has continued ever since. The September 22nd Fed Announcement (and pre...
Wed, Oct 20 2021, 10:31 AM
Today has the dubious distinction of being exactly 2 weeks before the Fed announcement (the one that's likely to contain the official tapering announc...
Tue, Oct 19 2021, 4:30 PM
The Trend is Not Your Friend
October has been one of those unpleasant months where bonds have several reason...
Tue, Oct 19 2021, 3:48 PM
Mortgage rates hit their highest levels in months yesterday as bonds lost ground at a brisk pace to start the new week. Bonds--specifically mortgage-b...
Tue, Oct 19 2021, 10:01 AM
It's an interesting time for rates because the market collectively knows where it should be going (i.e. toward even higher rates), yet seems to be dra...
Mon, Oct 18 2021, 4:20 PM
Decent Recovery After a Rocky Start
Bonds sold off right at the start of the overnight session with yields n...
Mon, Oct 18 2021, 3:24 PM
Mortgage rates had a mixed showing last week. They started out high before improving through Thursday. Finally, they took a step back up on Friday. No...
Mon, Oct 18 2021, 10:05 AM
We typically don't talk too much about volume. It doesn't much matter for the purpose of tracking intraday reprice risk because the price is the pric...
Fri, Oct 15 2021, 7:33 PM
After a calm summer at historic lows, interest rate volatility has ramped up heading into the fall. What are rates worried about, and is this just the...
Fri, Oct 15 2021, 3:08 PM
Steady Selling All Day For Bonds
Bonds may have rallied on Mon-Thu, but Friday's theme has been quite differ...
Fri, Oct 15 2021, 8:57 AM
Thursday brought more gains for bonds, but not the kind that led us to expect a continuation of the rally. Rather, we argued the improvement was bett...
Thu, Oct 14 2021, 4:25 PM
Mortgage rates fell today as a majority of lenders finally got caught up with the past few days of strength in the bond market. Lenders rely on bonds-...
Thu, Oct 14 2021, 4:25 PM
Can The Good Times Keep Rolling?
Referring to the past 3 days as "good times" is questionable. Perhaps "tim...
Thu, Oct 14 2021, 9:26 AM
Headlines like "Indecision Setting In" have ironically been seen at the start of some days that ended up being big movers, so apologies in advance if ...
Wed, Oct 13 2021, 3:51 PM
Closely following intraday moves for the bond market and mortgage rates means that seemingly insignificant time frames are actually important . For in...
Wed, Oct 13 2021, 3:45 PM
No Floors Harmed in Defense of The Ceiling
With yields vaulting higher last week, we've been looking for any...
Wed, Oct 13 2021, 9:45 AM
There has been more than a little bit of willingness on the part of the bond market to react to Fed's rate hike outlook. This began in earnest after ...
Tue, Oct 12 2021, 4:15 PM
Bonds Improve After Treasury Auction; Why MBS Are Lagging
Bonds began the day weaker, but improved steadily ...
Tue, Oct 12 2021, 3:41 PM
Mortgage rates continued higher on Tuesday after reaching the highest levels in months by the end of last week. The bond market was closed on Monday, ...
Tue, Oct 12 2021, 9:26 AM
Last week was unpleasant for the bond market. Yields tested and then broke above the technical ceiling at 1.56%, ultimately making it as high as 1.62...
Fri, Oct 8 2021, 6:34 PM
It goes by many names: The Employment Situation, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), or simply "the jobs report." No matter what you call it, the Labor Department...
Fri, Oct 8 2021, 4:01 PM
What's Up With Super Weak NFP Tanking The Bond Market?!
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) were much weaker than expect...
Fri, Oct 8 2021, 11:07 AM
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) were much weaker than expected (194k vs 500k f'cast), but that had almost no impact on the bond market in the first hour of tr...
Thu, Oct 7 2021, 3:29 PM
Highest Yields in Months. Could Jobs Report Make it Worse?
After a somewhat hopeful bounce in yesterday's t...
Thu, Oct 7 2021, 2:52 PM
It's Thursday and thus time once again for some seriously confusing mixed signals in the world of mortgage rate journalism. The weekly Freddie Mac rat...
Thu, Oct 7 2021, 9:57 AM
It remains to be seen what impact tomorrow's jobs report might have given that it would take an atrociously weak number to derail the Fed's November t...
Wed, Oct 6 2021, 4:31 PM
Mortgage rates managed to hold mostly steady on Wednesday despite several headwinds that threatened to push them higher. The first headwind falls into...
Wed, Oct 6 2021, 4:26 PM
Bonds Vote To Hold The Range Despite Stronger Data
10yr yields tested multi-month highs overnight (1.573), b...
Wed, Oct 6 2021, 9:36 AM
1.573% on a 10yr US Treasury Note?! While this still isn't the place a yield-seeking investor would park their money (inflation-adjusted returns at a...
Tue, Oct 5 2021, 4:35 PM
Mortgage rates managed to begin the week by holding relatively steady, but that changed rather noticeably today. The bond market (which dictates day t...
Tue, Oct 5 2021, 4:35 PM
Rates Move Back Toward Recent Highs.
Bonds started the day only modestly higher after a fairly uneventful ov...
Tue, Oct 5 2021, 11:28 AM
Modest weakness on Monday meant the door was still open for bonds to challenge the lower boundary of the higher rate range seen last week. Today's tr...
Mon, Oct 4 2021, 4:16 PM
Could be Better. Could be Worse
Bonds ended last week on a strong note with yields challenging the lowest le...
Mon, Oct 4 2021, 4:03 PM
Mortgage rates are unchanged to a hair lower compared to last Friday, depending on the lender. While that's welcome news given some of the big jumps i...
Mon, Oct 4 2021, 9:57 AM
Bonds managed to consolidate by the end of last week after yields surged to the highest levels since June. They're now faced with the choice to acqui...
Fri, Oct 1 2021, 4:43 PM
Modestly Strong, Uneventful Trading Day, Version 3
Last week conditioned us for Drama. Monday and Tuesday su...
Fri, Oct 1 2021, 11:32 AM
Today is off to a relatively tame start with yields trading in the narrowest range of the week so far. It also marks the 3rd straight day of modest r...
Thu, Sep 30 2021, 4:11 PM
Do Today's Gains Mean The Selling Spree is Over?
After some initial weakness brought 10yr yields back in lin...
Thu, Sep 30 2021, 9:26 AM
In case you missed it, things have been bad for bonds since last Thursday. A combination of factors conspired to push yields higher at the fastest pac...
Wed, Sep 29 2021, 4:20 PM
After spending the past four business days moving rapidly higher, mortgage rates finally caught a break today, but it was small. In fact, the average ...
