Mon, Nov 22 2021, 5:09 PM
Mortgage rates began the new week on a bad note with the average lender full erasing the improvement seen on Friday. This leaves many lenders at their...
Mon, Nov 22 2021, 4:41 PM
Abrupt Sell-Off To Begin Holiday-Shortened Week
The day began with confirmation that Fed Chair Powell would ...
Mon, Nov 22 2021, 11:33 AM
There was some speculation that Biden would nominate Fed governor Lael Brainard to take over as Fed chair. It an outside possibility, but one that le...
Fri, Nov 19 2021, 3:13 PM
Strong Showing Overall Despite Late Day Weakness
As noted in this morning's commentary, the key source of in...
Fri, Nov 19 2021, 3:00 PM
Winter is coming, both literally and figuratively. While the fallout remains to be seen, financial markets are already reacting. In the literal sense,...
Fri, Nov 19 2021, 11:43 AM
As yesterday's AM commentary tacitly suggested, "winter is coming" in terms of the connection between colder temps and higher covid case counts. Euro...
Thu, Nov 18 2021, 3:31 PM
Bonds Add to Case For Stability
Bonds put in a solid enough performance on Thursday with 10yr yields almost ...
Thu, Nov 18 2021, 2:58 PM
Mortgage rates were modestly lower today as the bond market continued pushing back against somewhat abrupt weakness. The average media coverage says s...
Thu, Nov 18 2021, 10:36 AM
The overnight session was mostly uneventful for the bond market, but trading levels were slightly weaker in the first hour of trading. Since then, bu...
Wed, Nov 17 2021, 4:46 PM
Mortgage rates finally caught a break after spending the past six business days moving higher at a faster-than-normal pace. During that time, the aver...
Wed, Nov 17 2021, 4:40 PM
Bonds Improve, Led by Treasuries as Corporate Pipeline Clears
One of the key sources of motivation for risin...
Wed, Nov 17 2021, 9:40 AM
Last Wednesday brought the sharpest sell-off to the bond market in over a month. Bonds continued to weaken on the next two relevant trading days (Mon...
Tue, Nov 16 2021, 4:15 PM
MBS Outperform on Curve Steepening and Corporate Issuance
The yield curve has been almost exclusively in "fl...
Tue, Nov 16 2021, 3:34 PM
Mortgage rates continued higher again today, despite a fairly flat performance in the bond market. Specifically, the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) ...
Tue, Nov 16 2021, 9:52 AM
This morning's Retail Sales report--arguably the week's headliner--came in stronger than expected, and significantly stronger than the previous month....
Mon, Nov 15 2021, 3:44 PM
After hitting the lowest levels in over a month last Tuesday, mortgage rates have been moving higher fairly quickly each day since then. Most of the d...
Mon, Nov 15 2021, 3:44 PM
Defensive Until Further Notice
Bonds sold off early and often to begin the new week. Selling pressure rampe...
Mon, Nov 15 2021, 9:46 AM
Bonds were unchanged on Friday after selling off aggressively on Thursday. At first glance, that could be taken as confirmation of the weakness, but ...
Fri, Nov 12 2021, 4:48 PM
Lots of Apparent Drama For an "Unchanged" Day
The morning's headline proclaimed that today was essentially a...
Fri, Nov 12 2021, 4:26 PM
Several sources for mortgage rate data are doing consumers a major disservice this week. At least two of them are claiming that the average top tier 3...
Fri, Nov 12 2021, 10:56 AM
The typical federal holiday plays nicely with the bond market. Most involve a full closure on a Monday or Friday and are often preceded by a "half da...
Wed, Nov 10 2021, 3:34 PM
Mortgage rates managed to drift down to their best levels in more than a month by yesterday, but the good times ended today... abruptly ! Interest rat...
Wed, Nov 10 2021, 3:32 PM
Big Nasty Sell-Off Sends a Message About The Range
Steady selling in the morning followed by heavy selling a...
Wed, Nov 10 2021, 9:42 AM
In econo-jargon, the word "real" typically refers to "inflation-adjusted." So when we say that "real 10yr yields" hit record lows this morning, it co...
Tue, Nov 9 2021, 3:42 PM
Mortgage rates moved moderately lower for the 5th straight day, bringing them to the best levels since late September or early October, depending on t...
Tue, Nov 9 2021, 3:36 PM
Weaker Treasury Auction, But Only After a Strong Morning
In and of itself, the10yr Treasury auction (arguabl...
Tue, Nov 9 2021, 8:58 AM
Today's MBS charts initially made it seem like prices had fallen versus yesterday's latest levels. In a way, they did, but the right side of the char...
Mon, Nov 8 2021, 4:27 PM
Mortgage rates are directly based on trading levels in the bond market, so it's almost a given that rates will move in the same direction as bond yiel...
Mon, Nov 8 2021, 4:27 PM
Mixed Signals As Holiday-Shortened Week Begins
Bonds lost some ground today. 10yr yields were up roughly 4b...
Mon, Nov 8 2021, 9:18 AM
As far as most news outlets are concerned, Friday's passage of the infrastructure bill is the big news for Monday morning. At one time, the bond mark...
Fri, Nov 5 2021, 6:53 PM
This week, the Fed announced a reduction in its bond buying. In separate news, the big jobs report was much stronger than expected. Both of these even...
Fri, Nov 5 2021, 3:24 PM
Why In The World Did Bonds Rally So Much Today?
Bonds embarked on a surprisingly swift move in a surprising ...
Fri, Nov 5 2021, 10:05 AM
Friday begins with a stronger-than-expected jobs report, including big positive revisions to the past few months and another drop in the unemployment ...
Thu, Nov 4 2021, 4:17 PM
Mortgage rates fell today as markets decompressed following yesterday's announcement from the Federal Reserve regarding the reduction of its bond buyi...
Thu, Nov 4 2021, 4:13 PM
Why Bonds Really Rallied on Thursday
Thursday's big bond rally was not a foregone conclusion destined to fol...
Thu, Nov 4 2021, 9:54 AM
Today's early trading range for the bond market was anyone's guess yesterday afternoon. Sometimes overseas markets have a different reaction to US mon...
Wed, Nov 3 2021, 4:27 PM
Bonds Take Tapering Mostly In Stride
Today was the day that the Fed announced a reduction in the pace of its...
Wed, Nov 3 2021, 4:07 PM
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum ...
Wed, Nov 3 2021, 4:07 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher today after the Federal Reserve announced a reduction in its rate-friendly bond buying program. Actually, to be fair, rate...
Wed, Nov 3 2021, 2:05 PM
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum ...
Wed, Nov 3 2021, 9:40 AM
The Fed has been more than clear that it will announce a reduction in bond purchases today. This has been part of the bond market's destiny from the ...
Tue, Nov 2 2021, 3:58 PM
Mortgage rates began the day moderately lower compared to yesterday's latest levels. The size of the move depends on the time of day in question due t...
Tue, Nov 2 2021, 3:45 PM
Does Precedent Matter For 2021 Taper Announcement?
Bonds rallied today, depending on when and where you look...
Tue, Nov 2 2021, 8:58 AM
The extent to which markets are expecting a Fed taper announcement tomorrow cannot be overstated. In fact, if the Fed announcement were reduced to a ...
Mon, Nov 1 2021, 4:02 PM
Mortgage rates moved moderately lower today despite an absence of significant movement in the bond market. In general, when bonds improve, rates fall ...
Mon, Nov 1 2021, 4:02 PM
Bonds Battle Back After Slightly Weaker Start
There are bigger-picture, thematic trends in the bond market a...
Mon, Nov 1 2021, 9:13 AM
Any rate watcher who lived through 2013 has not-so-fond memories of the taper tantrum. (For those of you who weren't tuned in, that refers to the inc...
Fri, Oct 29 2021, 5:53 PM
For anyone following interest rates very closely in 2013, the taper tantrum is not easily forgotten. It describes the bond market's knee-jerk response...
Fri, Oct 29 2021, 2:53 PM
Nice Recovery as Month-End Trades Roll In
Month-end trading isn't always helpful for bonds. Indeed, that's ...
Fri, Oct 29 2021, 9:56 AM
It's an interesting morning in the bond market--at least for those of us who are interesting both in general rate momentum and nitty gritty MBS moveme...
