Wed, Dec 15 2021, 2:00 PM
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum ...
Wed, Dec 15 2021, 11:26 AM
By the time we finally arrive at a much-anticipated Fed day, there's not much to do in the morning hours apart from the proverbial "hurry up and wait....
Tue, Dec 14 2021, 4:10 PM
Calm Today. Bigger Volatility a Risk For Tomorrow
Treasuries began the domestic session in modestly weaker t...
Tue, Dec 14 2021, 3:30 PM
Traditionally, financial markets have been interested in announcements from the Federal Reserve due to the Fed's policy rate (the Fed Funds Rate) and ...
Tue, Dec 14 2021, 9:14 AM
The week before last (the one where omicron resulted in faster-paced stock losses and bond gains) 10yr yields ran into some resistance on their journe...
Mon, Dec 13 2021, 4:29 PM
Weekend News Cycle Hurts Stocks, Helps Bonds
Whether it's bothersome restrictions domestically or more emerg...
Mon, Dec 13 2021, 3:58 PM
Mortgage rates have been fairly flat in the bigger picture, but each passing day continues to bring small scale movements. This is almost always the c...
Mon, Dec 13 2021, 8:59 AM
The last 2 weeks have seen elevated volatility for the bond market. Omicron concerns took yields lower, but the gains reversed as concerns moderated....
Fri, Dec 10 2021, 5:37 PM
Financial market volatility increased noticeably after the emergence of the omicron variant. Last week, that proved to be good for rates and bad for s...
Fri, Dec 10 2021, 3:53 PM
What's Up With Today's MBS Volatility?
MBS prices suffered from two infrequent sources of volatility today. ...
Fri, Dec 10 2021, 12:08 PM
This week's economic data headliner was this morning's CPI report. It showed core inflation at 4.9% as expected. Had the number been 2bps higher or ...
Thu, Dec 9 2021, 4:08 PM
Refreshingly Resilient Despite Bumpy 30yr Auction
There have been a few flashes of resilience in the bond ma...
Thu, Dec 9 2021, 2:52 PM
Mortgage rates stabilized yesterday after moving higher on the first 2 days of the week. They managed to improve modestly today despite some volatilit...
Thu, Dec 9 2021, 10:01 AM
In yesterday's overnight session, European bonds were the key driver of US bond market weakness. Now in today's overnight session, they've had the op...
Wed, Dec 8 2021, 4:16 PM
Losses Continue for Treasuries, But Not MBS
Treasury yields were set to start the day lower before upbeat om...
Wed, Dec 8 2021, 3:39 PM
Mortgage rates stabilized today after spending the past 2 days moving modestly higher. In general, rates moved almost exclusively lower last week in r...
Wed, Dec 8 2021, 9:14 AM
If last week could be reduced to a single theme, it would be that of omicron concerns driving a bond rally and stock sell-off. This week's theme is o...
Tue, Dec 7 2021, 4:41 PM
Bonds Remain Under Pressure, But MBS Outperformed
Bonds managed to remain sideways during AM hours. In fact...
Tue, Dec 7 2021, 3:39 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher again today thus keeping them well within the sideways range that's been in place for the past 2 months. Omicron-related n...
Tue, Dec 7 2021, 9:41 AM
Last week's story was simple: unknowns and risks surrounding omicron prompted traders to shed risk by selling stocks and buying bonds. Unfortunately ...
Mon, Dec 6 2021, 4:26 PM
Bonds Sell-Off, But MBS Outperform
The week began decently enough with bonds holding most of last week's gai...
Mon, Dec 6 2021, 3:57 PM
Mortgage rates have been in a very narrow , sideways range since October. During that time, the average 30yr fixed rate hasn't moved by more than an e...
Mon, Dec 6 2021, 11:41 AM
Although MBS have been underperforming, the broader trend in the bond market remains in good shape--especially in light of current headwinds. The mos...
Fri, Dec 3 2021, 4:19 PM
Several developments are converging on the global economy and financial markets at the moment. Each brings its own causes for concern. Together, they ...
Fri, Dec 3 2021, 4:19 PM
Big Reversal in Bonds After Stocks Sell Off
Bonds paradoxically sold off after this morning's weaker jobs nu...
Fri, Dec 3 2021, 10:55 AM
It's NFP day for the bond market although we have to ask ourselves what that really means in a world where the Fed has explicitly stated that it's see...
Thu, Dec 2 2021, 4:18 PM
MBS Give Up Yesterday's Gains Despite Decent Start
MBS have a bit of a problem. In the past week, they've g...
Thu, Dec 2 2021, 3:43 PM
Mortgage rates started weaker and ended stronger yesterday. Unfortunately , today delivered exactly the opposite scenario. The underlying bond market ...
Wed, Dec 1 2021, 4:33 PM
Mortgage rates were much lower at the start of business yesterday , but began rising in the afternoon as the bond market lost ground. That same moment...
Wed, Dec 1 2021, 4:32 PM
Weaker Start, Stronger Finish
Volatility has been elevated for the bond market in the past 4 weeks and espec...
Wed, Dec 1 2021, 11:09 AM
It's an interesting, confusing, and tumultuous moment for financial markets as traders digest an unprecedented confluence of relevant events. Two eve...
Tue, Nov 30 2021, 4:19 PM
Big Swings as Covid Squares Off Against The Fed
It was omicron vs the Fed today and bonds had a front row se...
Tue, Nov 30 2021, 3:50 PM
Mortgage rates ended the previous week with a hopeful outlook due to the omicron variant. In general, rates benefit from news and events that cause in...
Tue, Nov 30 2021, 10:25 AM
Today's reaction function for the market is very simple and very obvious. Shortly after midnight, Moderna's CEO made some discouraging comments about...
Mon, Nov 29 2021, 3:27 PM
Bonds Find Footing After Shaky Start
This morning we found ourselves in the uncomfortable position of watchi...
Mon, Nov 29 2021, 11:12 AM
Bonds are starting out the new week retaining a majority of last Friday's mega rally. The omicron-inspired gains were big enough that 10yr yields ar...
Fri, Nov 26 2021, 2:51 PM
Just when it looked like the current week would fizzle out on a negative note for rates, our least favorite market mover is back in the news. B.1.1.52...
Fri, Nov 26 2021, 2:50 PM
Covid Variant Causes Massive Market Reaction
This morning it was B.1.1.529. By the afternoon, the WHO label...
Fri, Nov 26 2021, 11:34 AM
Remember July? Covid was a fading memory and the light was clearly visible at the end of the pandemic tunnel. Then came Delta. It served as a painf...
Wed, Nov 24 2021, 4:18 PM
Fed Minutes Largely As Expected; No Major Drama For Bonds
After weathering the storm of this morning's data,...
Wed, Nov 24 2021, 11:38 AM
One of the side effects of holiday-shortened weeks is a condensed data schedule. That's especially true of Thanksgiving week as it essentially remove...
Tue, Nov 23 2021, 4:46 PM
Mortgage rates continued higher today as the bond market remained in a defensive stance for a variety of reasons. The week's scheduled Treasury auctio...
Tue, Nov 23 2021, 4:41 PM
Strong Auction No Match For Bond Bears
Today's 7yr auction was the biggest potential source of volatility fo...
Tue, Nov 23 2021, 10:46 AM
As of last Friday, the bond market looked keen on rejecting any attempt to revisit the recent ceiling in late October (10yr yields were just over 1.70...
Mon, Nov 22 2021, 5:09 PM
Mortgage rates began the new week on a bad note with the average lender full erasing the improvement seen on Friday. This leaves many lenders at their...
Mon, Nov 22 2021, 4:41 PM
Abrupt Sell-Off To Begin Holiday-Shortened Week
The day began with confirmation that Fed Chair Powell would ...
Mon, Nov 22 2021, 11:33 AM
There was some speculation that Biden would nominate Fed governor Lael Brainard to take over as Fed chair. It an outside possibility, but one that le...
Fri, Nov 19 2021, 3:13 PM
Strong Showing Overall Despite Late Day Weakness
As noted in this morning's commentary, the key source of in...
Fri, Nov 19 2021, 3:00 PM
Winter is coming, both literally and figuratively. While the fallout remains to be seen, financial markets are already reacting. In the literal sense,...
Fri, Nov 19 2021, 11:43 AM
As yesterday's AM commentary tacitly suggested, "winter is coming" in terms of the connection between colder temps and higher covid case counts. Euro...
