Tue, Feb 8 2022, 4:42 PM
Last Friday continues to be the epicenter of the most recent push to multi-year highs for mortgage rates. The average lender jumped by roughly an e...
Tue, Feb 8 2022, 4:15 PM
More Long-Term Rate Highs, But No New Reasons
Bonds were in sell mode right from the start of the overnight ...
Tue, Feb 8 2022, 9:51 AM
1.95% was a tremendously important technical ceiling in late 2019 before covid. It lay dormant for more than 2 years until the early 2022 sell-off put...
Mon, Feb 7 2022, 4:01 PM
Uneventfully Holding Near Long-Term Rate Highs
This morning's commentary centered on last Friday's dark hors...
Mon, Feb 7 2022, 9:53 AM
It was easy to focus on elephant in the room last week as most of the US bond market weakness came in apparent response to Friday's jobs report. But ...
Fri, Feb 4 2022, 5:01 PM
Aren't Bonds Overreacting to a Jobs Report That Wasn't Supposed to Matter?
The Fed already declared victory ...
Fri, Feb 4 2022, 1:31 PM
This wasn't supposed to happen. The bond market shouldn't have cared about today's jobs data. The Fed had already declared victory on jobs and mov...
Fri, Feb 4 2022, 12:29 PM
Rates have been trending higher in fits and starts since August 2020, but the mortgage market was insulated from much of the pain due to its disconn...
Thu, Feb 3 2022, 4:27 PM
What a difference a day makes. Unfortunately, it's an unpleasant difference in this case as mortgage rates went from the lowest levels in more than a...
Thu, Feb 3 2022, 4:05 PM
Weakness Reinforces Range Ahead of Jobs Report
Foreign central bank announcements pushed bond yields higher ...
Thu, Feb 3 2022, 9:41 AM
The European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BOE) were both out with policy statements this morning. Only one of those--the contentious rate ...
Wed, Feb 2 2022, 4:02 PM
Bonds Uninterested in Huge ADP Miss; Another "Inside Day"
For the third day in a row now, bonds spent a dece...
Wed, Feb 2 2022, 3:36 PM
After a month like January (where rates rose very quickly), we'll take any victory we can get. In today's case, that means the celebration of rates...
Wed, Feb 2 2022, 10:04 AM
For the second morning in a row, bonds have traded on both sides of unchanged. While today's swings haven't been as big as yesterday's, the lead chan...
Tue, Feb 1 2022, 5:35 PM
Bonds Settle Sideways After Volatile Morning
The overnight session took bonds to stronger levels with 10yr y...
Tue, Feb 1 2022, 12:47 PM
January may have ended on a positive note, and the early morning hours of February may have held similar promise, but as the new trading month begins,...
Mon, Jan 31 2022, 3:57 PM
Wild Month Ends Uneventfully For Bonds
The first 3 and a half weeks of January were not great for the bond m...
Mon, Jan 31 2022, 3:44 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher at their fastest pace in several years at the beginning of January . Even though the volatility died down after the firs...
Mon, Jan 31 2022, 10:05 AM
Over the years the average jobs report week (typically the one with the first Friday of any given month) has a better chance than any other week to se...
Fri, Jan 28 2022, 4:52 PM
January has been a month marked by the market's adjustment to a shift in the Fed policy outlook. This began right at the outset and resulted in highe...
Fri, Jan 28 2022, 4:50 PM
How Meaningful is Post-Fed Rate Resilience?
2 days, 2 rallies following Wednesday's Fed-induced selling spre...
Fri, Jan 28 2022, 12:50 PM
Bonds lost ground steadily in the overnight session, but are turning green in early trading on Friday. Once again, the 9:30am NYSE opening bell emerg...
Thu, Jan 27 2022, 4:10 PM
What do we Make of Today's Bond Bounce?
After a big sell-off in response to yesterday's Fed announcement, bo...
Thu, Jan 27 2022, 11:01 AM
Stocks and bonds both sold off in response to yesterday's Fed events. Stocks weakened a bit more in the overnight session, but have been bouncing bac...
Wed, Jan 26 2022, 6:04 PM
Fed policy is critically important to interest rates and January has marked a shift in the Fed policy outlook. In not so many words, the Fed sees its...
Wed, Jan 26 2022, 4:51 PM
Fed Stays Course on Policy Tightening; Calls Out MBS
As expected, the Fed announcement did nothing to alter ...
Wed, Jan 26 2022, 2:01 PM
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum ...
Wed, Jan 26 2022, 9:46 AM
Recent major Fed communications have had a tendency to stoke the fires of momentum in the bond market. This began in earnest in September. Not every...
Tue, Jan 25 2022, 3:45 PM
It's a tale as old as time for those who closely follow the day to day gyrations in the mortgage market. Bond volatility forces lenders to raise ra...
Tue, Jan 25 2022, 3:30 PM
Intraday Volatility But Mostly For Treasuries; Fed On Deck
Bonds began the day trading right in line with ye...
Tue, Jan 25 2022, 10:32 AM
Monday had the potential to challenge the notion of the pre-Fed consolidation in the bond market. If yields had managed to break below 1.70% and hold...
Mon, Jan 24 2022, 3:48 PM
MBS Flip Script After Treasury Auction; Bonds Refuse to Chase Stocks
It was a fairly sloppy day of gains for...
Mon, Jan 24 2022, 9:57 AM
Bonds are off to stronger start for a 4th straight trading session. As such, they're following the same pattern as the rally attempt 2 weeks ago (whi...
Fri, Jan 21 2022, 8:09 PM
The bond market returned from a 3 day weekend to find yields surging higher on Tuesday. That pushed mortgage rates to fresh 2 year highs and added em...
Fri, Jan 21 2022, 3:35 PM
Another Green Day But MBS Underperform
Bonds rallied today with 10yr yields dropping more than 6bps by the 3...
Fri, Jan 21 2022, 11:26 AM
Bonds are off to an even stronger start on Friday, largely in response to a big risk-off move that rifled through markets in the last 90 minutes of tr...
Thu, Jan 20 2022, 4:14 PM
Still Waiting on Fed Above All Else
Bonds enjoyed another day of modest improvement on Thursday. On the plu...
Thu, Jan 20 2022, 3:31 PM
Today was one of the most uneventful days in recent memory for mortgage rates. The average lender is in very similar territory compared to yesterda...
Thu, Jan 20 2022, 9:55 AM
For the second day this week, bonds are off to a stronger start. The pattern is similar to last week where yields hit new long-term highs on the first...
Wed, Jan 19 2022, 4:22 PM
Mortgage rates have been having a bad 2022 so far with the average lender up to the highest levels in roughly 2 years as of yesterday. The reason? T...
Wed, Jan 19 2022, 3:58 PM
Decent Day, But There's a Catch
Bonds improved today! The rally was moderate by typical standards, but it f...
Wed, Jan 19 2022, 10:02 AM
Remember last Thursday? Bonds had done a great job of pushing back in a friendly direction after a huge week of selling kicked off the new year. Tha...
Tue, Jan 18 2022, 4:12 PM
One of the very few welcome byproducts of the pandemic was the pervasive availability of new all-time low mortgage rates. Depending on when you c...
Tue, Jan 18 2022, 3:52 PM
Snowball Selling Continues. Why?
In not so many words, most of the rate drama seen during the past 3 weeks i...
Tue, Jan 18 2022, 10:38 AM
Bonds sold off last Friday after 4 days of relative stability and improvement to start the week. Optimists hoped the weakness was a byproduct of the ...
Fri, Jan 14 2022, 7:20 PM
In the past 2 weeks, press coverage of the Federal Reserve's policy outlook has ramped up significantly. The Fed is now expected to start hiking rate...
Fri, Jan 14 2022, 5:51 PM
Friday's Sell-Off Makes Rest Of The Week Look Like a Trap
Over the past 2 days, we've pondered the fate of t...
Fri, Jan 14 2022, 11:41 AM
Friday is not shaping up to be a great day for the mortgage bond market. Our benchmark guidance giver of choice (10yr yield) is in the midst of a pot...
Thu, Jan 13 2022, 4:16 PM
Just Enough of a Rally to Keep Things Interesting
Coming into the day, we were pondering the fate of this we...
Thu, Jan 13 2022, 4:06 PM
In almost every case, a day of bond market improvement results in rates moving lower. That makes sense considering mortgage rates are based primarily...
