Tue, Nov 24 2020, 10:02 AM
With very little by way of significant data or events as far as financial markets are concerned, today's most interesting revelation will be FHFA's an...
Mon, Nov 23 2020, 5:01 PM
Everything is relative when it comes to following day-to-day movements in mortgage rates . Yes, they're technically higher than they were on Friday af...
Mon, Nov 23 2020, 4:34 PM
Bond Market Weakness Introduce Risk of In-Range Bounce
Bonds were weaker overnight following European econom...
Mon, Nov 23 2020, 10:18 AM
Any time there's at least a moderate amount of movement in the overnight session, a consensus typically emerges as to the key driver of said movement....
Fri, Nov 20 2020, 3:43 PM
Bonds Are Boring Today, So Let's Talk About 1.5 UMBS
Treasuries did little to react to a smattering of poten...
Fri, Nov 20 2020, 11:18 AM
There are no significant events on the economic calendar today, and it is the last full trading day of the last full trading week before the winter ho...
Thu, Nov 19 2020, 4:40 PM
August 4th, 2020 was the best day ever for mortgage rates . That's when we hit the lowest all-time lows we've ever seen, and none of the most prevalen...
Thu, Nov 19 2020, 4:24 PM
Tame Trading Day Leaves Outlook Intact
The bond market has been in a bullish consolidation pattern since las...
Thu, Nov 19 2020, 9:24 AM
The bond market has entered a period of consolidation after the recent run up toward 1.0% in 10yr yields. Whether we're looking at the market action ...
Wed, Nov 18 2020, 5:22 PM
Mortgage rates were little-changed yesterday--a fact that was ultimately at odds with underlying market movement by the end of the day. What does that...
Wed, Nov 18 2020, 4:57 PM
Yields Give Up Early Lead But Remain Near 2-Week Lows
Today ended up being about as big of a roller coaster ...
Wed, Nov 18 2020, 10:33 AM
Bonds are making a case for a bigger picture bounce with 10yr yields turning a corner just before hitting the epic psychological barrier of 1.0%. Mor...
Tue, Nov 17 2020, 4:20 PM
Mortgage rates were little-changed today, with the average lender only microscopically better than yesterday. That means few loan seekers will notice ...
Tue, Nov 17 2020, 4:04 PM
Rates Running Out of Things to be Afraid Of?
Bonds improved today--mostly during the overnight trading sessi...
Tue, Nov 17 2020, 10:06 AM
In spite of yesterday's Moderna vaccine news, 10yr yields managed to end the day nearly unchanged. More impressively, they're heading into the curren...
Mon, Nov 16 2020, 3:56 PM
Last week, trial results from Pfizer's covid vaccine sent shockwaves through financial markets. Stock prices and bond yields both moved decisively hig...
Mon, Nov 16 2020, 3:36 PM
Bond Market Indecision After More Vaccine News
Another Monday, another early morning announcement of stagger...
Mon, Nov 16 2020, 10:20 AM
On back to back Monday mornings at 6:45am, both of the frontrunner covid vaccine trials have announced surprisingly strong late stage results (Pfizer ...
Fri, Nov 13 2020, 5:15 PM
Treasuries Reluctant to Add to Rally, But MBS Outperform.
It was a ho-hum day for bonds. Movement was minim...
Fri, Nov 13 2020, 10:55 AM
The holiday-shortened bond trading week began poorly with vaccine news causing a massive yield spike. Tuesday didn't do too much to allay fears, but ...
Thu, Nov 12 2020, 4:24 PM
Earlier in the month, mortgage rates rose somewhat abruptly as lenders got in a defensive position ahead of the election. They'd learned in 2016 just ...
Thu, Nov 12 2020, 4:23 PM
Strong Move in Bonds Helps Balance The Outlook
After a month of almost exclusive weakness, extreme volatilit...
Thu, Nov 12 2020, 9:54 AM
Following Monday's vaccine-inspired bond rout, we're seeing markets take the middle path. Stocks corrected to pre-vaccine levels later that same day ...
Tue, Nov 10 2020, 5:01 PM
Bonds Refuse to Answer The Big Questions Heading Into Mid-Week Holiday
After days like Monday (in which the ...
Tue, Nov 10 2020, 2:37 PM
Mortgage rate movement had been very calm relatively resilient compared to the broader bond market. In other words, mortgages have been doing better t...
Tue, Nov 10 2020, 9:33 AM
After days like Monday (in which the bond market lost ground at the fastest pace in months due to the Pfizer vaccine news), we can see one of three th...
Mon, Nov 9 2020, 3:28 PM
Last week ultimately ended up being great for mortgage rates , but only after a somewhat abrupt increase heading into the election. On Tuesday, the av...
Mon, Nov 9 2020, 3:24 PM
Bonds Reeling. Was That Enough Weakness to Find Some Support?
Pfizer's vaccine trial update rocked markets ...
Mon, Nov 9 2020, 9:54 AM
Last week was obviously all about the election. By Friday, our recap said "forget the election" and focused on speculation that the Fed would soon be...
Fri, Nov 6 2020, 5:35 PM
Forget The Election, Here's a Huge New Possibility To Consider
Bonds finally weakened a bit today after 2 ni...
Fri, Nov 6 2020, 10:15 AM
10yr yields already showed their lack of bullish conviction when it came time to challenge a floor at .72%. If anything the message was that addition...
Thu, Nov 5 2020, 4:53 PM
Any discussion of "all-time low" mortgage rates requires careful attention to specifics. Are we talking about weekly survey numbers or actual daily nu...
Thu, Nov 5 2020, 4:33 PM
No Reaction to Fed, Bonds Waiting on More Election Clarity
Between the weaker momentum throughout October an...
Thu, Nov 5 2020, 2:02 PM
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum ...
Thu, Nov 5 2020, 9:17 AM
Heading into the election, the dominant trading theme was "sideways to slightly weaker" for both stocks and bonds. Now, before you point to the fact ...
Wed, Nov 4 2020, 3:53 PM
Yesterday, we discussed the fact that many mortgage lenders got defensive ahead of election night uncertainty. In the mortgage world, when lenders get...
Wed, Nov 4 2020, 3:52 PM
Big Rally on Election Revelations
Fairly early in the domestic session, markets rapidly came to the realizat...
Wed, Nov 4 2020, 9:15 AM
Before last night, polls, betting odds, talking heads, prediction experts, and your Aunt Mabel all agreed Biden would be the next president. Financia...
Tue, Nov 3 2020, 3:43 PM
10yr Yields at 0.96% a Best-Case Starting Point For a Bad Reaction in Bonds
The election (referring both to ...
Tue, Nov 3 2020, 9:14 AM
Here we are at last on the final trading day before the bond market receives what could be its biggest of actionable information since the initial sur...
Mon, Nov 2 2020, 3:23 PM
Mortgage rates move higher and lower all the time, but truly massive moves tend to arrive with many months (if not years) in between. The trade war in...
Mon, Nov 2 2020, 3:18 PM
MBS Struggle to Hold Gains, But Rates Aren't Scared Yet
Bonds were mixed today with both MBS and Treasuries...
Mon, Nov 2 2020, 9:12 AM
There were already roughly 400k 10yr Treasury futures contracts traded by 8am today. A typical overnight session runs in the 100-300k range. Volume ...
Fri, Oct 30 2020, 7:20 PM
The 2016 election won't soon be forgotten in the mortgage or bond markets. Many of the predictions were dead wrong when it came to how interest rates ...
Fri, Oct 30 2020, 4:09 PM
Traders Running For Sidelines Ahead of Next Week's Election
Big losses in both stocks and bonds today as tra...
Fri, Oct 30 2020, 10:52 AM
The topic of month-end trading comes up frequently over the years. Reason being: we often see market momentum on the last few days of any given month...
Thu, Oct 29 2020, 4:50 PM
Technicals And Fundamentals Join Forces to Deliver Warning For Rates
Whether we're talking about the week as...
Thu, Oct 29 2020, 2:54 PM
It was a bit of a bittersweet day for mortgage rates . On the one hand, it was the Fed's first day buying a new category of mortgage-backed bonds--one...
Thu, Oct 29 2020, 11:17 AM
Let's do the simply-worded conclusion right up front. For fans of low rates, the Fed's inclusion of 1.5 MBS (30yr) is a good thing, but not some ne...
Wed, Oct 28 2020, 5:10 PM
When interest rates plummeted in response to the early realities of the pandemic back in March/April, mortgage rates did a terrible job of keeping pac...
