Tue, Dec 22 2020, 10:02 AM
With the passage of the stimulus/spending bill last night, the bond market cleared its last major hurdle for the week/month/quarter/year. By the time...
Mon, Dec 21 2020, 4:23 PM
Bonds Still Sideways, But MBS Underperform
Bond yields and stock prices bottomed at the same time in the ove...
Fri, Dec 18 2020, 4:58 PM
2020 In The Books Apart From Token Stimulus Reaction
By the end of the trading day, congress was seemingly n...
Fri, Dec 18 2020, 9:51 AM
Next week, the bond market will only be open for 3.5 days. In that time, the bond market will see a majority of its 'year-end' trades (asset allocati...
Thu, Dec 17 2020, 5:50 PM
2020 has safely secured its place in the record books as the year of all-time lows in mortgage rates --one of them anyway. Several other years have re...
Thu, Dec 17 2020, 4:03 PM
Seasonally Sideways Sans Stimulus
With Fed day behind us, the much-anticipated stimulus/spending bill is all...
Thu, Dec 17 2020, 8:58 AM
The combination of a friendly press conference with Fed Chair Powell and an unfriendly absence of change to the bond buying policy left the bond marke...
Wed, Dec 16 2020, 4:36 PM
Today marked the release of an updated policy statement from the Federal Reserve. In other words, it was Fed day! Lots can happen on Fed days--especia...
Wed, Dec 16 2020, 4:30 PM
Fed Abstains From Bond-Buying Change, But Powell Delivers
Speculation about whether or not the Fed would mak...
Wed, Dec 16 2020, 2:02 PM
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum ...
Wed, Dec 16 2020, 9:33 AM
Fiscal stimulus has been a hot topic for the bond market since the pandemic first kicked into a high enough gear to require fiscal support for the US ...
Tue, Dec 15 2020, 5:12 PM
Mortgage rates were mixed today, depending on the lender. The bond market--the driving force behind interest rate movement--was stronger yesterday. Ma...
Tue, Dec 15 2020, 4:59 PM
What Exactly Might The Fed Do Tomorrow and Why Should We Care?
MBS suffered, somewhat, from supply/demand is...
Tue, Dec 15 2020, 9:54 AM
With the exception of a surprise stimulus plan announcement or a huge departure from expectations in certain economic reports, the bond market is lock...
Mon, Dec 14 2020, 3:15 PM
Bonds Catch a Break From Downbeat Headlines; Fed Still in Focus
Wednesday's Fed announcement is the biggest ...
Mon, Dec 14 2020, 9:11 AM
Between vaccines, Brexit, covid surges, covid lockdowns, holiday retail, and various political headlines, it seems like the market should have a diver...
Fri, Dec 11 2020, 5:58 PM
An Epic Tale of Mortgage Rates vs MBS vs Treasuries
Risks are beginning to mount for the rate outlook--at le...
Fri, Dec 11 2020, 10:26 AM
The past few months have seen several troubling, but not unexpected developments for the long-term rate outlook. While they're not the type of thre...
Thu, Dec 10 2020, 4:06 PM
Bonds Are Getting Ready to Move, Probably
Bonds are always moving, to some extent, but they haven't moved ou...
Thu, Dec 10 2020, 4:05 PM
It's old news that 2020 is unprecedented for a lot of bad reasons, but how about a few that aren't so bad? As is often the case when anything causes m...
Thu, Dec 10 2020, 10:08 AM
One interesting theme that's emerging in December is that of weaker economic data actually hurting the bond market. This is certainly not in the conv...
Wed, Dec 9 2020, 4:47 PM
MBS-Specific Volatility Today, But No Major Change to Bigger-Picture
A fresh (or perhaps "slightly less stal...
Wed, Dec 9 2020, 4:46 PM
While all is easily forgiven in light of all-time low rates, the pandemic made a mess of the mortgage market in many ways. Most messes have been resol...
Wed, Dec 9 2020, 10:05 AM
Last night, a new stimulus plan was floated to Pelosi by Mnuchin. In theory, it includes provisions for several democratic sticking points, thus offe...
Tue, Dec 8 2020, 4:47 PM
Bond Watchers Clearly Can't Choose The Wine in Front of ______
There are quite a few potential justification...
Tue, Dec 8 2020, 10:50 AM
By mid-November, bonds were rallying after hitting their weakest levels since the start of the pandemic. Due to the timing (i.e. heading into a holid...
Mon, Dec 7 2020, 4:59 PM
You might think you know mortgage rates. You might make assumptions about where they'll go and what they'll do based on past precedent. For decades, y...
Mon, Dec 7 2020, 4:19 PM
Bond Market Threats on Hold For Now, But Still Lurking
Brexit-related headlines helped the bond market recov...
Mon, Dec 7 2020, 9:48 AM
It was impossible to avoid Brexit-related headlines in 2016. Indeed, they were the driving force behind Treasury yields hitting new all-time lows at ...
Fri, Dec 4 2020, 6:03 PM
Big Bond Spike, Mortgage Rate Defiance, Lock or Float?
Today was characterized by an aggressive spike in 10y...
Fri, Dec 4 2020, 5:53 PM
Mortgage loans ultimately "turn into" bonds and those bonds have a certain value to investors. When those values change, so do the rates offered by mo...
Fri, Dec 4 2020, 10:45 AM
The cause and effect relationship between NFP (the "non-farm payrolls" component of the big jobs report) and the bond market is a tale as old as time....
Thu, Dec 3 2020, 4:43 PM
Tomorrow brings the month's most important economic report: the Employment Situation, often referred to simply as "the jobs report." No other piece of...
Thu, Dec 3 2020, 4:29 PM
Bonds Find Their Range Ahead of Jobs Report
The first 2 days of the month (yesterday and the day before) wer...
Thu, Dec 3 2020, 9:19 AM
What is a "dip buyer?" A "dip" refers to a drop in the price of an asset in the financial markets. In this case, a dip in bond prices would correspo...
Wed, Dec 2 2020, 4:19 PM
Although it was the focus of yesterday's discussion , the ability of the mortgage market to hold steady in the face of bond market weakness continues ...
Wed, Dec 2 2020, 4:06 PM
Breaking Down The Crazy Relationship of MBS, Mortgage Rates, and Treasuries
Bonds showed up to sell today--a...
Wed, Dec 2 2020, 9:25 AM
Following yesterday's sharp losses, the bond market didn't do much overnight, nor is it doing much to push back in the other direction this morning. ...
Tue, Dec 1 2020, 4:06 PM
Serious Sell-Off in Bonds. Time to Panic?
A new month brought in new momentum for the bond market--a lot of...
Tue, Dec 1 2020, 4:05 PM
Like many industries, housing finance has a superficial layer that's fairly easy to understand for the average consumer. A person wants a home. They d...
Tue, Dec 1 2020, 9:34 AM
Remember the end of July? We were worried that an entire month of gains in bonds could give way to a momentum shift in August. It did. September br...
Mon, Nov 30 2020, 4:43 PM
Although many mortgage lenders were technically open for business last Friday, it's a well-known unofficial holiday. Mortgage rate movement requires b...
Mon, Nov 30 2020, 4:19 PM
Uneventful Month-End Day For Bonds, But MBS Outperform
Final trial results for Moderna's vaccine (it's still...
Mon, Nov 30 2020, 10:08 AM
Thanksgiving week can't ever be fully trusted to provide an accurate glimpse of market momentum. In this year's case, it didn't really say much anywa...
Fri, Nov 27 2020, 9:21 AM
For the US bond market, the day after Thanksgiving is frequently a reflection of the EU bond market. Strength in EU bonds translated to 10yr yields im...
Wed, Nov 25 2020, 3:44 PM
Fed Minutes Hurt MBS, But Not Quite As Badly As It Seemed
Today's Fed Minutes offered a more detailed accoun...
Wed, Nov 25 2020, 10:12 AM
Here it is! The trading community's ONE guaranteed chance of the year for a 4.5-day weekend. Even though Wednesday is never officially designated as...
Tue, Nov 24 2020, 4:44 PM
Modest Weakness Persists as Markets Rotate Back Toward Risk
Whether we want to pin the blame on Trump's will...
Tue, Nov 24 2020, 4:42 PM
If you follow the MBS Commentary channel on this site, you will have already seen most of the following, but it's relevant for consumers as well. As f...
Tue, Nov 24 2020, 1:30 PM
If you'd like to read the official FHFA press release, here you go, but here's the skinny on the new conforming loan limit of $548,250 for 2021, up fr...
