Wed, Oct 28 2020, 5:09 PM
Bonds Struggle to Hold Gains Despite Stock Rout
As of the 3pm CME close, 10yr yields were higher on the day....
Wed, Oct 28 2020, 10:03 AM
October has been unpleasant for the bond market--Treasuries specifically. That's not to say it's been a walk in the park for MBS. They too have lost...
Tue, Oct 27 2020, 4:45 PM
Mortgage rates are mostly determined by the trading levels of mortgage-backed bonds on the open market. When those bonds improve, mortgage rates move ...
Tue, Oct 27 2020, 4:33 PM
Bonds Looking Better This Week, But Risks Remain
Today's release of FHFA's home price index showed a sharp a...
Tue, Oct 27 2020, 11:33 AM
We'll start off with more of an industry-specific curiosity (as opposed to diving right into markets/rates). Then again, the conforming loan limit is...
Mon, Oct 26 2020, 3:47 PM
Mortgage rates were lower today for the average lender, but just how low remains a matter of great debate. To be fair, there's no active debate raging...
Mon, Oct 26 2020, 3:36 PM
Rising Rate Trend Changing Course or Just Leveling Off?
After a modest day of gains on Friday, bonds covered...
Mon, Oct 26 2020, 10:36 AM
We knew that bonds would be forced to accept more volatility in October, if for no other reason than September's progressive and ultimately complete a...
Fri, Oct 23 2020, 6:26 PM
Another week, another glut of news articles claiming mortgage rates are at all-time lows. While no one is intentionally trying to deceive you, the new...
Fri, Oct 23 2020, 3:49 PM
Have MBS Finally Reached The Limits of Outperformance vs Treasuries?
Bonds are in the throws of an extended ...
Fri, Oct 23 2020, 10:11 AM
In the bond market, as a whole, we've never seen yields any lower for any longer than they've been in 2020. The runners up aren't even close. Even...
Thu, Oct 22 2020, 4:56 PM
Thursdays are special days for mortgage rate aficionados--or they can be anyway. That's when the weekly mortgage rate survey from Freddie Mac is relea...
Thu, Oct 22 2020, 3:53 PM
Staggering MBS Outperformance Easing Negative Momentum Pain
Bonds are in the throws of an extended negative ...
Thu, Oct 22 2020, 10:16 AM
There are several ways to look at "the range" when it comes to post-covid trading levels in the bond market. There are several ways to look at "the b...
Wed, Oct 21 2020, 4:32 PM
Rates are appreciably higher than they were last week or indeed any time in past 4 weeks. That's surprising news to those laboring under misapprehensi...
Wed, Oct 21 2020, 4:25 PM
Bonds Find Footing Early, But Aren't Able to Go Green
It's safe to say the bond market found its footing tod...
Wed, Oct 21 2020, 9:40 AM
There have been reasons to fear a momentum shift in bonds for several weeks now. Here's how we discussed it at the beginning of October:
"It's neve...
Tue, Oct 20 2020, 4:41 PM
It began last week. It was subtle--so subtle as to pass largely unnoticed. But the gentle drift toward slightly higher rates has taken bigger steps so...
Tue, Oct 20 2020, 4:32 PM
Bearish Bond Trend Continues
Looking back at MBS or Treasuries over the past few weeks reveals a clear termi...
Tue, Oct 20 2020, 9:25 AM
It was fun and easy to get caught up in (or spoiled by) the recent ultra-narrow range in the bond market. The boundaries of that range were .62 and ....
Mon, Oct 19 2020, 3:43 PM
For some unknown reason, there were additional articles over the weekend touting " all-time low mortgage rates." Underpinning these alleged rates is p...
Mon, Oct 19 2020, 3:42 PM
Bond Market Modestly But Disappointingly Weak Despite Stock Sell-Off
Bonds started out weaker and looked lik...
Mon, Oct 19 2020, 11:24 AM
Pressure is mounting for the bond market. After a period of intensely calm, narrow trading throughout September, 10yr yields quickly moved to challen...
Fri, Oct 16 2020, 5:03 PM
Yesterday, we discussed why rates are not actually at all-time lows. But rates are whatever they are. They're relation to previous lows doesn't really...
Fri, Oct 16 2020, 4:04 PM
MBS Defy Odds as Bond Bulls Fail For 3rd Straight Day
After failing back to back attempts to retake the rece...
Fri, Oct 16 2020, 11:42 AM
Admittedly, this is less of a "day ahead" at this point and more of a "day in progress." Nonetheless, we can discuss the lay of the land as we gear u...
Thu, Oct 15 2020, 4:21 PM
Many of today's mortgage-related headlines are touting "new all-time lows," but there are significant caveats. The biggest caveat would likely be the ...
Thu, Oct 15 2020, 3:54 PM
Bonds Come Up Short After Another Attempt to Re-Enter Previous Range
For a second straight day, 10yr yields ...
Thu, Oct 15 2020, 9:59 AM
From 2011 through the middle of 2016, the European economy, monetary system, and policy landscape had an extreme amount of influence over volatility a...
Wed, Oct 14 2020, 4:44 PM
If you're shopping for a purchase mortgage and if you'd previously received quotes from one of the slower moving lenders back in late July or early Au...
Wed, Oct 14 2020, 4:35 PM
Bonds Start Strong But MBS Struggle to Keep Up
Last week was clearly a defensive shift for the bond market. ...
Wed, Oct 14 2020, 10:52 AM
Inflation is one of the basic building blocks of bond yields. A bond is a loan... an agreement for you to give me a lump sum of cash today and for me...
Tue, Oct 13 2020, 4:56 PM
Mortgage Rates have been exceptionally calm recently. The only major exception has been the implementation, delay, and re-implementation of a new fee ...
Tue, Oct 13 2020, 4:36 PM
Bonds Start Strong After Playing Defense Last Week
Last week was clearly a defensive shift for the bond mark...
Tue, Oct 13 2020, 10:29 AM
The new week begins with "the roll" for 30yr UMBS--our in-house term to refer to the monthly settlement process for MBS coupons, and a perennial sou...
Fri, Oct 9 2020, 4:59 PM
The bond market, which drives interest rates, is in the habit of reacting to big developments that impact the economy and inflation. At present, bonds...
Fri, Oct 9 2020, 4:59 PM
Weakness and Consolidation as Bonds Wait For Stimulus
This week began with a decisive breakout to higher yie...
Fri, Oct 9 2020, 10:19 AM
At one point in time (and perhaps to this day) if you'd asked the average bond market watcher to name the top 3 months for volatility, October would d...
Thu, Oct 8 2020, 3:53 PM
After rising at a medium-quick pace to begin the week, the past 3 days have been much calmer by comparison for mortgage rates . Today was the best exa...
Thu, Oct 8 2020, 3:51 PM
Too Soon To Hope For Support?
This week began with a decisive breakout to higher yields in the bond market. ...
Thu, Oct 8 2020, 10:17 AM
This week began with a decisive breakout to higher yields in the bond market. Trump's comments on stimulus have been a key source of volatility althou...
Wed, Oct 7 2020, 4:42 PM
This morning's weekly survey data from the Mortgage Bankers Association showed a nice increase in refinance applications offset by a smaller decrease ...
Wed, Oct 7 2020, 4:39 PM
Dashed Hopes For Bond Bounce After Trump Tweet Reversal
Tuesday was going poorly for bonds until a Trump Twe...
Wed, Oct 7 2020, 9:51 AM
Tuesday was going poorly for bonds until Trump Tweets (instructing his representatives to stop negotiating a stimulus bill) sent markets into a tailsp...
Tue, Oct 6 2020, 4:20 PM
After falling moderately to start the week, mortgage rates put in a calmer performance on Tuesday. As we discussed yesterday, volatility in the bond m...
Tue, Oct 6 2020, 4:12 PM
Late Day Reversal For Bonds After Trump Stimulus Threat
Today wasn't going too terribly poorly for the bond ...
Tue, Oct 6 2020, 11:25 AM
For too long and, to this day, far too frequently in many circles, market movement is credited to or blamed on oversimplified "cause and effect" rel...
Mon, Oct 5 2020, 4:14 PM
Mortgage rates have been spoiled, relatively, by an extraordinarily calm/narrow trading pattern in the bond market. That's important because the bond ...
Mon, Oct 5 2020, 3:37 PM
Bonds on The Defensive as Range Breakout Looks More Serious
Last week saw yields break higher after being sq...
Mon, Oct 5 2020, 9:08 AM
The incredible range trade of Q3, 2020 is well established and, by now, hopefully well understood. The boundaries are clear in terms of 10yr yields w...
