Wed, Jun 11 2014, 7:27 AM
The headline is pretty ominous, but not for any particular reason. It's merely an observation of where we've been over the past few weeks, namely, ...
Wed, Jun 11 2014, 4:55 PM
Despite bond markets undergoing many more vacillations between "positive" and "negative" territory today, trading levels are still heading out the doo...
Tue, Jun 10 2014, 7:42 AM
Yesterday was a complete non-starter except inasmuch as it started to go sideways shortly after the open and never looked back. Traders were trading,...
Tue, Jun 10 2014, 5:03 PM
Perhaps even before you read this, MBS prices will be another 8-12 ticks lower due to the Roll (monthly settlement, beginning with Fannie/Freddie 30yr...
Tue, Jun 10 2014, 1:03 PM
Treasuries were under pressure right from the start today, having begun their move weaker when European trading came online around 3am. 10's managed ...
Mon, Jun 9 2014, 12:03 PM
There are three kinds of uneventful trading days: inconsequentially stronger, inconsequentially weaker, and unchanged. Bond markets stood a good chan...
Mon, Jun 9 2014, 7:42 AM
In stark contrast to the previous week, this one is very light in terms of economic data and events. That relative silence coincides well with rate...
Mon, Jun 9 2014, 3:54 PM
On the approach, this week looked very light in terms of relevant calendar events to inspire trade. So far, that probable lack of inspiration is tu...
Fri, Jun 6 2014, 12:35 PM
Long before yesterday's ECB Announcement, traders and talking heads alike have been lamenting the lack of volatility in bond markets. If they'd onl...
Fri, Jun 6 2014, 7:30 AM
The ECB threaded the needle yesterday. By some accounts, they did more or less than expected, but both camps agreed it was very close to expectatio...
Fri, Jun 6 2014, 4:27 PM
Thinking back to the last NFP report, we had that big beat (288k vs 215k forecast), that ultimately ended in gains for bond markets. That was prett...
Thu, Jun 5 2014, 12:30 PM
Expectations were all over the board for today's European Central bank policy announcement, as well as the characterization of future policy potenti...
Thu, Jun 5 2014, 7:14 AM
I'm as surprised as you are... After global bond markets pulled back from the brink of oblivion in mid 2012 (led by the European systemic collapse) an...
Thu, Jun 5 2014, 4:15 PM
Compared to what it could have been, today turned out to be relatively calm for bond markets. From a day over day standpoint, 10yr yields are only 2b...
Wed, Jun 4 2014, 11:04 AM
It would have been fair to hope that recent losses in bond markets would be leveling off after losing ground abruptly over the past 4 days. Perhaps t...
Wed, Jun 4 2014, 7:31 AM
Today brings the release of the ADP Employment Report. At times, this data has been maligned as the a horrible predictor of the official number from ...
Wed, Jun 4 2014, 4:56 PM
The next two days are potentially the biggest so far this year for bond markets. The key issue will be the European Central Bank's policy announcemen...
Tue, Jun 3 2014, 12:51 PM
After yesterday kicked off the new month with a quick return over 2.47 in 10yr Treasury yields, the overnight session kept the selling pressure intact...
Tue, Jun 3 2014, 7:51 AM
Whether we're talking about mortgage rates falling briefly to 4.0 after only recently breaking to 4.125% or whether we're talking about 10yr yields br...
Tue, Jun 3 2014, 5:08 PM
Bond markets were weaker today with losses intact right from the start. There was brief respite heading into the afternoon, but then selling resume...
Mon, Jun 2 2014, 12:02 PM
Bond markets began the day on the back foot, losing ground right from the overnight session. The weakness didn't pick up noticeable steam until the o...
Mon, Jun 2 2014, 7:56 AM
On the first week of most any month, the focal point for bond market trading is unquestionably Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)--and with good reason. ...
Mon, Jun 2 2014, 3:47 PM
Bond markets were weaker today. The story of that weakness really begins in the middle of last week when Wednesday and Thursday saw successive move...
Fri, May 30 2014, 12:10 PM
After the strong move lower in rates through yesterday morning and a disconcertingly sharp pull-back yesterday, possibilities for today were diverse. ...
Fri, May 30 2014, 7:50 AM
For the purposes of this discussion, 'interest rates' refer to mortgage rates and 10yr Treasury yields. Why 10yr yields? I just put together this ...
Fri, May 30 2014, 4:57 PM
Today was a good test for MBS and Treasuries. It spoke volumes to the current state of play in bond markets: traders are afraid to get too short ah...
Thu, May 29 2014, 12:53 PM
We've been talking a bit about how yesterday's impressive rally could have had something to do with positioning for today's GDP revision . The thoug...
Thu, May 29 2014, 7:51 AM
Before yesterday, a break below 2.47 in 10yr yields was less likely than remaining in a narrower range. The big breaks would logically have their bes...
Thu, May 29 2014, 5:35 PM
GDP came out much weaker than expected this morning and Jobless Claims were noticeably stronger than expected. Pending Home Sales were stagnant and d...
Wed, May 28 2014, 11:57 AM
Things had been pretty tame for MBS and Treasuries after the last round of excitement ended on May 15th. That was when the last major rally ended and...
Wed, May 28 2014, 7:39 AM
Even though yesterday had more going on in terms of scheduled events, today will likely see better participation among traders. The current order of...
Wed, May 28 2014, 4:53 PM
After starting the day just slightly stronger, and with absolutely nothing by way of major market-moving considerations, Fannie 3.5s moved up over hal...
Tue, May 27 2014, 12:00 PM
Much like the magic that happens when you give an old wooden paddle-ball/string toy to a kid raised in the electronic generation, markets found a surp...
Tue, May 27 2014, 7:45 AM
A common quip on Wall Street is that financial markets will do what it takes to prove as many people wrong as possible. Variations of the same concep...
Tue, May 27 2014, 3:44 PM
Bond markets took their own sweet time getting back to business after the holiday weekend. Trading activity was lighter than normal and apart from ...
Fri, May 23 2014, 11:50 AM
Very little has happened so far on this holiday-shortened Friday (Monday's the holiday, but MBS/Treasuries close 3 hours early today). The lack of ac...
Fri, May 23 2014, 8:00 AM
In yesterday's recap, I mentioned that Treasuries have been trending higher in a 'fairly classic consolidation pattern' and that this was evidence tha...
Thu, May 22 2014, 12:08 PM
As we frequently discuss, 10yr yields are the best technical benchmark for how rates are moving even though mortgage rates themselves are directly inf...
Thu, May 22 2014, 7:51 AM
Last week, bond markets shot the moon by improving substantially even when the odds were stacked against them. Those stacked odds consisted of stro...
Thu, May 22 2014, 3:48 PM
Markets close at 2pm tomorrow in observance of the Memorial Day Holiday, and will be fully closed on Monday. With that in mind, we've essentially mad...
Wed, May 21 2014, 12:38 PM
We haven't seen bond markets move this sideways all the way through morning hours in quite some time (weeks at least). 10yr yields have been within ...
Wed, May 21 2014, 8:00 AM
The drought of significant events this week finally ends today as the Fed releases the minutes from the April 29-30th policy-setting meeting. That me...
Wed, May 21 2014, 4:07 PM
Today's news was largely out yesterday: the Fed will probably reevaluate their exit strategy last spelled out in 2011--yes, the 2011 that was 3 years...
Tue, May 20 2014, 12:03 PM
In general, Treasuries--or better yet, 'overall bond market momentum'--leads and MBS follow. But it does happen the other way around sometimes. Toda...
Tue, May 20 2014, 8:00 AM
The first two days of the week have essentially no actionable data on the schedule. The effects were made painfully obvious yesterday as bond markets...
Tue, May 20 2014, 4:39 PM
Bond markets started the domestic session in line with yesterday's latest levels, which were also yesterday's lows. Trading levels maintained a somew...
Mon, May 19 2014, 11:49 AM
Both Treasuries and MBS hit the 8am mark right in line with Friday's latest levels. As the domestic bond market session officially got underway with ...
Mon, May 19 2014, 7:55 AM
So far in the month of May, MBS have been making much bigger day to day moves than in April. But it's worth remembering that things can get a lot m...
Mon, May 19 2014, 4:06 PM
Heading into the last hour of trading, MBS have undone the past three days of gains. Such a statement is a bit more palatable when the MBS hit their ...
Fri, May 16 2014, 12:54 PM
Thank goodness for a boring day. The alternatives would be that the mega-rally of the past two days extends further, which causes all sorts of probl...
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