Thu, May 29 2014, 7:51 AM
Before yesterday, a break below 2.47 in 10yr yields was less likely than remaining in a narrower range. The big breaks would logically have their bes...
Thu, May 29 2014, 5:35 PM
GDP came out much weaker than expected this morning and Jobless Claims were noticeably stronger than expected. Pending Home Sales were stagnant and d...
Wed, May 28 2014, 11:57 AM
Things had been pretty tame for MBS and Treasuries after the last round of excitement ended on May 15th. That was when the last major rally ended and...
Wed, May 28 2014, 7:39 AM
Even though yesterday had more going on in terms of scheduled events, today will likely see better participation among traders. The current order of...
Wed, May 28 2014, 4:53 PM
After starting the day just slightly stronger, and with absolutely nothing by way of major market-moving considerations, Fannie 3.5s moved up over hal...
Tue, May 27 2014, 12:00 PM
Much like the magic that happens when you give an old wooden paddle-ball/string toy to a kid raised in the electronic generation, markets found a surp...
Tue, May 27 2014, 7:45 AM
A common quip on Wall Street is that financial markets will do what it takes to prove as many people wrong as possible. Variations of the same concep...
Tue, May 27 2014, 3:44 PM
Bond markets took their own sweet time getting back to business after the holiday weekend. Trading activity was lighter than normal and apart from ...
Fri, May 23 2014, 11:50 AM
Very little has happened so far on this holiday-shortened Friday (Monday's the holiday, but MBS/Treasuries close 3 hours early today). The lack of ac...
Fri, May 23 2014, 8:00 AM
In yesterday's recap, I mentioned that Treasuries have been trending higher in a 'fairly classic consolidation pattern' and that this was evidence tha...
Thu, May 22 2014, 12:08 PM
As we frequently discuss, 10yr yields are the best technical benchmark for how rates are moving even though mortgage rates themselves are directly inf...
Thu, May 22 2014, 7:51 AM
Last week, bond markets shot the moon by improving substantially even when the odds were stacked against them. Those stacked odds consisted of stro...
Thu, May 22 2014, 3:48 PM
Markets close at 2pm tomorrow in observance of the Memorial Day Holiday, and will be fully closed on Monday. With that in mind, we've essentially mad...
Wed, May 21 2014, 12:38 PM
We haven't seen bond markets move this sideways all the way through morning hours in quite some time (weeks at least). 10yr yields have been within ...
Wed, May 21 2014, 8:00 AM
The drought of significant events this week finally ends today as the Fed releases the minutes from the April 29-30th policy-setting meeting. That me...
Wed, May 21 2014, 4:07 PM
Today's news was largely out yesterday: the Fed will probably reevaluate their exit strategy last spelled out in 2011--yes, the 2011 that was 3 years...
Tue, May 20 2014, 12:03 PM
In general, Treasuries--or better yet, 'overall bond market momentum'--leads and MBS follow. But it does happen the other way around sometimes. Toda...
Tue, May 20 2014, 8:00 AM
The first two days of the week have essentially no actionable data on the schedule. The effects were made painfully obvious yesterday as bond markets...
Tue, May 20 2014, 4:39 PM
Bond markets started the domestic session in line with yesterday's latest levels, which were also yesterday's lows. Trading levels maintained a somew...
Mon, May 19 2014, 11:49 AM
Both Treasuries and MBS hit the 8am mark right in line with Friday's latest levels. As the domestic bond market session officially got underway with ...
Mon, May 19 2014, 7:55 AM
So far in the month of May, MBS have been making much bigger day to day moves than in April. But it's worth remembering that things can get a lot m...
Mon, May 19 2014, 4:06 PM
Heading into the last hour of trading, MBS have undone the past three days of gains. Such a statement is a bit more palatable when the MBS hit their ...
Fri, May 16 2014, 12:54 PM
Thank goodness for a boring day. The alternatives would be that the mega-rally of the past two days extends further, which causes all sorts of probl...
Fri, May 16 2014, 7:54 AM
Despite an abundance of economic data yesterday, domestic bond markets were instead focused on navigating trading ranges past and present. The stron...
Fri, May 16 2014, 3:58 PM
Although it's true that bond markets moved into weaker territory after this morning's data, it's even more true that the weakness looks like a mere c...
Thu, May 15 2014, 12:37 PM
Even seasoned market-watchers might be thrown for a bit of a loop by today's surprisingly strong bond market rally. After all, we just had a surprisi...
Thu, May 15 2014, 8:00 AM
Today is by far and away the busiest day of economic data this week. This presents a good opportunity to feel out what's important to the bond market...
Thu, May 15 2014, 4:11 PM
To be fair to the entire bond market, Treasuries actually didn't fade that much. After making it into the 2.47's, 10yr yields are drifting sideways...
Wed, May 14 2014, 12:08 PM
Even if we were being as pessimistic as possible and making every excuse for the 2014 trading range, there's no way to put a caveat on today's levels....
Wed, May 14 2014, 7:51 AM
Heading into the end of last week, bond markets were like a space shuttle preparing for launch. The earth was like a 10yr Treasury yield at 2.57 and ...
Wed, May 14 2014, 5:31 PM
Even though mortgage rates hit multi-month lows several times in the past 2 weeks, today is significant in that Treasuries finally broke the range. S...
Tue, May 13 2014, 12:00 PM
MBS and Treasuries began the day in unchanged territory. There was a bit of a positive backdrop in place from overnight news that Germany's central b...
Tue, May 13 2014, 7:54 AM
Bond markets have arguably been trading in accordance with the mainstream technical suggestions. Specifically, there are several technical studies so...
Tue, May 13 2014, 3:57 PM
Until this morning, recent momentum in bond markets was clearly and cleanly pointing to a correction within the recent range, where rates would move h...
Mon, May 12 2014, 11:58 AM
It's been a slow morning so far, and utterly lacking in overt inspiration. More simply put, we haven't seen any movement in Treasuries or MBS linked ...
Mon, May 12 2014, 7:51 AM
Over the weekend, events that have been labelled by some as 'referendums' took place in several of the most embattled regions in Ukraine. Not surpris...
Mon, May 12 2014, 4:25 PM
Compared to the 9 ticks of price weakness in 10yr Treasuries (+3.1 bps), Fannie 3.5 MBS were only off 5 ticks and Fannie 4.0s just 3 ticks in the fina...
Fri, May 9 2014, 11:58 AM
Bond markets are just slightly weaker, and have thus far been doing a decent job of keeping those losses contained. There hasn't been much by way of '...
Fri, May 9 2014, 7:42 AM
First thing's first: "mortgage rates" themselves, have clearly already broken the 2014 range, having moved into the best levels since late October o...
Fri, May 9 2014, 3:11 PM
The focus of the week for MBS and rates should be on the fact that we made it to levels not seen since the end of October 2013. With 6 out of the la...
Thu, May 8 2014, 12:01 PM
Europe and the US serenaded each other this morning with a hot rendition of "Dueling Bankers." Not to be confused with dueling banjos, this song feat...
Thu, May 8 2014, 7:42 AM
Thursday is probably the most action-packed day of the week for MBS. It gets most of the way there by being a fairly action-packed day for bond marke...
Thu, May 8 2014, 4:40 PM
Right from the outset, seemingly strange things were happening as 10yr yields looked much higher on charts, yet were reported as being slightly lower ...
Wed, May 7 2014, 12:40 PM
Bond markets have been slightly more active today both in terms of volume and volatility. Overnight trading was essentially a wash. 10yr yields were...
Wed, May 7 2014, 7:42 AM
Bond markets put in another strong day yesterday, returning to the strongest end of their respective ranges after losing just a bit of ground to start...
Wed, May 7 2014, 4:07 PM
Bond began the first few minutes of the day in slightly weaker shape, but ended the day in positive territory after Yellen's congressional testimony a...
Tue, May 6 2014, 11:02 AM
So far this week, stocks and bonds have generally been moving together again after a bit of disconnection last week. Equities futures fell graduall...
Tue, May 6 2014, 8:00 AM
There was a Bloomberg article out on Sunday night that quickly made rounds in financial markets and among market watchers. It isn't 'in your face...
Tue, May 6 2014, 4:19 PM
Calmly and coolly, MBS marched to the best levels of the year this afternoon, and for no particular reason as far as today's events were concerned. ...
Mon, May 5 2014, 11:45 AM
Bond markets have been fairly calm this morning, even if slightly weaker after the ISM Non-Manufacturing data (aka ISM Services). Before that, ther...
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