Tue, Jul 29 2014, 7:42 AM
Yesterday proved to be anything but serious based on the narrow trading range. 10yr yields only used up half of the range they'd carved out on Frid...
Tue, Jul 29 2014, 5:00 PM
Markets were more active today, offering a nice little warm up for what promises to be an even more active day tomorrow. The movement came in waves...
Mon, Jul 28 2014, 12:56 PM
Very little happened in the overnight session and very little has changed into the domestic trading hours. Bond markets were a bit weaker overnight a...
Mon, Jul 28 2014, 7:42 AM
Finally we come to the week we've been eyeing for nearly a month as a candidate for major changes. It's fitting that 10yr yields ended the previous w...
Mon, Jul 28 2014, 5:11 PM
More due to timing and coincidence than anything, we got a few negative reprices this afternoon. Shortly thereafter, prices moved right back mid-poin...
Fri, Jul 25 2014, 11:56 AM
For more than a week, bond markets have flirted with a break into the best levels of the year. On several occasions 10yr yields have looked all but ...
Fri, Jul 25 2014, 7:27 AM
Next week is a big one. ADP/GDP/FOMC all hit on Wednesday. Month-End is on Thursday, and NFP is on Friday. There are other top-tier reports as we...
Fri, Jul 25 2014, 3:51 PM
Next week promises to be big. Even if the events don't 'agree' with each other enough to spark a major rally or sell-off, the potential is there. Du...
Thu, Jul 24 2014, 12:27 PM
Typically, negative economic data on the scale of this morning's New Home Sales would be a clearly positive factor for bond prices. Sales fell at the...
Thu, Jul 24 2014, 7:42 AM
The past 5 days have simply seen rates grind around recent lows. Things have been a bit brighter in Treasuries compared to MBS, but in general, bot...
Thu, Jul 24 2014, 3:59 PM
For the past 4 sessions, bond markets have traded a narrow range near their best levels of the year. This effectively began with the geopolitical r...
Wed, Jul 23 2014, 12:49 PM
In terms of domestic economic data and events, not much has happened today. The key driver of morning gains was the reaction to Bank of England Min...
Wed, Jul 23 2014, 7:33 AM
Having spent the last 4 sessions trading near 2.47%, 10yr yields are operating in an important zone historically. For all intents and purposes, yield...
Wed, Jul 23 2014, 5:05 PM
Although MBS did a good job of pushing back against a recent bout of underperformance over the past 3 sessions, today showed it won't be a straight sh...
Tue, Jul 22 2014, 12:22 PM
MBS began the session at a disadvantage after overnight trading pushed bond yields and stock prices higher. At 8:30am, the Consumer Price Index (CPI)...
Tue, Jul 22 2014, 7:39 AM
2014 has been an interesting year for bond markets. In fact, in terms of its ability to continually confound market expectations, it's been one of th...
Tue, Jul 22 2014, 4:56 PM
Bond markets didn't put on much of a show today, but what little there was managed to be enjoyable . Credit that to the fact that trading levels mad...
Mon, Jul 21 2014, 11:35 AM
With no major economic data on the calendar, and no game-changing headlines to react to, bond markets have been content to follow stocks so far this...
Mon, Jul 21 2014, 7:33 AM
In many ways, the current week will serve as a prelude to the following week, which is exceptionally packed with big-ticket events . From Wednesday ...
Mon, Jul 21 2014, 5:36 PM
If you haven't heard already (say, like 7 or 8 times from us--both before and after the fact), today's calendar was fairly light for bond markets. ...
Fri, Jul 18 2014, 12:13 PM
Sometimes the 2nd day of a big geopolitical move will spiral into a volatile blaze of glory. Other times, it's like today.
Bond markets are calmly...
Fri, Jul 18 2014, 7:31 AM
Although economic data had some small role to play in yesterday's strong bond market rally, the day was really all about geopolitical risk. If we've ...
Fri, Jul 18 2014, 4:02 PM
The amount of geopolitical turmoil in the world today is not materially better than yesterday, but without new surprises to fuel safe-haven demand, bo...
Thu, Jul 17 2014, 11:33 AM
Despite a much stronger-than-expected Philly Fed report, bond markets didn't lose much ground after 10am. Earlier in the morning, weaker Housing Star...
Thu, Jul 17 2014, 7:41 AM
In a sense, bond markets came into the week as an underdog . They'd rallied the entire previous week to the lowest levels in over a month. And by F...
Thu, Jul 17 2014, 5:04 PM
Today offered a triple or possibly quadruple-whammy for bond markets, almost exclusively in the form of overseas events. The weakest among these was ...
Wed, Jul 16 2014, 12:12 PM
Ah round 2! After a relatively civil and infinitely more relevant chat with the Senate Banking Committee, Fed Chair Yellen is now enduring what can o...
Wed, Jul 16 2014, 7:42 AM
When it comes to the Fed Chair's semi-annual congressional testimonies, the first of the two (in this case, yesterday's Senate Banking Committee) tend...
Wed, Jul 16 2014, 4:42 PM
As the last few trades of the day trickle in, MBS are set to close almost perfectly in line with yesterday's closing levels. Even before that, ther...
Tue, Jul 15 2014, 12:36 PM
As expected, today's congressional testimony from Fed Chair Yellen was, by far, the biggest market mover in the room. The volume and movement at 10...
Tue, Jul 15 2014, 7:54 AM
In stark contrast to Monday's empty calendar, Tuesday brings both important economic data and Yellen's first round of congressional testimony. Of t...
Tue, Jul 15 2014, 4:43 PM
As far as today's market movers are concerned, Retail Sales was dwarfed by Yellen, but most of the reaction to Yellen cancelled itself out. In othe...
Mon, Jul 14 2014, 11:51 AM
Asian, European, and domestic markets have all agreed: it's a quiet trading day . The light volumes make for a situation where it doesn't take much ...
Mon, Jul 14 2014, 7:31 AM
Last week was a dud in terms of scheduled events. This week isn't the polar opposite, but it's much more active. Monday and Friday are the only days...
Mon, Jul 14 2014, 4:19 PM
Bond markets simply *were* weaker today. Certainly, there was no overt reason for this, and the less obvious reasons are open to debate. Even if w...
Fri, Jul 11 2014, 12:04 PM
Bond markets have been stronger today, and have carved out a linear trend of improvements from morning price levels. Interestingly enough, this stren...
Fri, Jul 11 2014, 7:42 AM
There are no significant economic reports on the calendar today, and the week's auction cycle is already wrapped up. While there are two Fed speakers...
Fri, Jul 11 2014, 5:30 PM
Treasuries and MBS walked a cautious path to the exits today, staying perfectly inside the middle of yesterday's trading range. The overnight sessi...
Thu, Jul 10 2014, 12:27 PM
Core European debt markets set the tone for the overnight session. That means German Bunds big rally helped US Treasury yields move lower overnight...
Thu, Jul 10 2014, 7:39 AM
Let's do the same thing we did yesterday and get the daily analysis out of the way in one paragraph so I can wrap up the "NFP Reflections." Yesterday...
Thu, Jul 10 2014, 4:30 PM
Eurozone contagion made an appearance today in much the same way it did for nearly all of 2010-2012. This time around, it's Portugal's Banco Espiri...
Wed, Jul 9 2014, 12:09 PM
While MBS have made up some ground compared to Treasuries over the past few hours, they're generally underperforming this week. Fannie 3.5s are down ...
Wed, Jul 9 2014, 7:55 AM
We'll get the normal "day ahead' stuff out of the way in a paragraph today because I spent most of my writing time on something I otherwise wasn't goi...
Wed, Jul 9 2014, 5:16 PM
While the overnight session was slightly weaker and the 10yr auction made things that much worse, the day's main event was undoubtedly the FOMC Minute...
Tue, Jul 8 2014, 11:54 AM
With today continuing yesterday's tradition of offering very little by way of scheduled events, bond markets must look elsewhere for cues. Actually, ...
Tue, Jul 8 2014, 7:42 AM
"The range" is admittedly an overused term, and it requires constant contextual clarification. While various examples offer convenient connections be...
Tue, Jul 8 2014, 4:38 PM
Market participation was pathetic yesterday--the lightest session since at least April. Today was merely "average" but that's a huge improvement over...
Mon, Jul 7 2014, 12:40 PM
From Thursday's latest levels, Fannie 3.5s are 3/32nds higher in price, compared to a 9/32nds gain in 10yr Treasuries (also in price). That means Tre...
Mon, Jul 7 2014, 7:32 AM
On the whole, 2014 has certainly seen a narrow range in rates, but within that broader range, we've still been able to witness distinct trends. For...
Mon, Jul 7 2014, 4:48 PM
Today's session barely had a pulse. Weather is nice. It's the day after a 3-day weekend, and there was nothing meaningful on the event calendar. ...
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