Wed, Jul 16 2014, 7:42 AM
When it comes to the Fed Chair's semi-annual congressional testimonies, the first of the two (in this case, yesterday's Senate Banking Committee) tend...
Wed, Jul 16 2014, 4:42 PM
As the last few trades of the day trickle in, MBS are set to close almost perfectly in line with yesterday's closing levels. Even before that, ther...
Tue, Jul 15 2014, 12:36 PM
As expected, today's congressional testimony from Fed Chair Yellen was, by far, the biggest market mover in the room. The volume and movement at 10...
Tue, Jul 15 2014, 7:54 AM
In stark contrast to Monday's empty calendar, Tuesday brings both important economic data and Yellen's first round of congressional testimony. Of t...
Tue, Jul 15 2014, 4:43 PM
As far as today's market movers are concerned, Retail Sales was dwarfed by Yellen, but most of the reaction to Yellen cancelled itself out. In othe...
Mon, Jul 14 2014, 11:51 AM
Asian, European, and domestic markets have all agreed: it's a quiet trading day . The light volumes make for a situation where it doesn't take much ...
Mon, Jul 14 2014, 7:31 AM
Last week was a dud in terms of scheduled events. This week isn't the polar opposite, but it's much more active. Monday and Friday are the only days...
Mon, Jul 14 2014, 4:19 PM
Bond markets simply *were* weaker today. Certainly, there was no overt reason for this, and the less obvious reasons are open to debate. Even if w...
Fri, Jul 11 2014, 12:04 PM
Bond markets have been stronger today, and have carved out a linear trend of improvements from morning price levels. Interestingly enough, this stren...
Fri, Jul 11 2014, 7:42 AM
There are no significant economic reports on the calendar today, and the week's auction cycle is already wrapped up. While there are two Fed speakers...
Fri, Jul 11 2014, 5:30 PM
Treasuries and MBS walked a cautious path to the exits today, staying perfectly inside the middle of yesterday's trading range. The overnight sessi...
Thu, Jul 10 2014, 12:27 PM
Core European debt markets set the tone for the overnight session. That means German Bunds big rally helped US Treasury yields move lower overnight...
Thu, Jul 10 2014, 7:39 AM
Let's do the same thing we did yesterday and get the daily analysis out of the way in one paragraph so I can wrap up the "NFP Reflections." Yesterday...
Thu, Jul 10 2014, 4:30 PM
Eurozone contagion made an appearance today in much the same way it did for nearly all of 2010-2012. This time around, it's Portugal's Banco Espiri...
Wed, Jul 9 2014, 12:09 PM
While MBS have made up some ground compared to Treasuries over the past few hours, they're generally underperforming this week. Fannie 3.5s are down ...
Wed, Jul 9 2014, 7:55 AM
We'll get the normal "day ahead' stuff out of the way in a paragraph today because I spent most of my writing time on something I otherwise wasn't goi...
Wed, Jul 9 2014, 5:16 PM
While the overnight session was slightly weaker and the 10yr auction made things that much worse, the day's main event was undoubtedly the FOMC Minute...
Tue, Jul 8 2014, 11:54 AM
With today continuing yesterday's tradition of offering very little by way of scheduled events, bond markets must look elsewhere for cues. Actually, ...
Tue, Jul 8 2014, 7:42 AM
"The range" is admittedly an overused term, and it requires constant contextual clarification. While various examples offer convenient connections be...
Tue, Jul 8 2014, 4:38 PM
Market participation was pathetic yesterday--the lightest session since at least April. Today was merely "average" but that's a huge improvement over...
Mon, Jul 7 2014, 12:40 PM
From Thursday's latest levels, Fannie 3.5s are 3/32nds higher in price, compared to a 9/32nds gain in 10yr Treasuries (also in price). That means Tre...
Mon, Jul 7 2014, 7:32 AM
On the whole, 2014 has certainly seen a narrow range in rates, but within that broader range, we've still been able to witness distinct trends. For...
Mon, Jul 7 2014, 4:48 PM
Today's session barely had a pulse. Weather is nice. It's the day after a 3-day weekend, and there was nothing meaningful on the event calendar. ...
Thu, Jul 3 2014, 12:05 PM
Inexplicable bond market resilience isn't always about the Eurozone, but sometimes it is, and today is one of those times.
In order to have inexpli...
Thu, Jul 3 2014, 7:31 AM
There is so much on tap today per hour of open market time. It may be some sort of record. Not on the economic calendar below, but still potentially...
Thu, Jul 3 2014, 3:23 PM
There's not much left to be said or concluded in terms of today's events (because it's a short day, and there simply hasn't been much time between now...
Wed, Jul 2 2014, 12:17 PM
Referring to the morning's weakness as exclusively "ADP-inspired" is a bit of an overstatement . Bond markets have generally been trading in the dir...
Wed, Jul 2 2014, 7:42 AM
Thursday approaches, bringing with it a glut of significant economic data, an ECB Announcement, and an early close in observance of Independence Day. ...
Wed, Jul 2 2014, 6:36 PM
Love it or hate it, ADP data matters when it's as far from consensus as it was this morning (otherwise, it's been having less and less of an impact). ...
Tue, Jul 1 2014, 12:10 PM
Simply put, there's been a moderate, but pervasive amount of bond market weakness intact ever since yesterday's quarter-end trading wrapped up. As we...
Tue, Jul 1 2014, 7:46 AM
With the end of the month/quarter out of the way, bond markets may now have more capacity to tune in to the week's economic data. But when quarter-en...
Tue, Jul 1 2014, 4:46 PM
One theme dominated the day: changing of the guard between June/Q1 trading and July/Q2. Out with the old, in with the slightly less old, but not fund...
Mon, Jun 30 2014, 12:05 PM
While the overnight sessions was relatively uneventful, the first half of the domestic session has seen some decent volatility . After starting out ...
Mon, Jun 30 2014, 7:27 AM
Pound for pound, this is one of the busiest weeks of the year . There are relevant economic reports every day as well as Fed speakers and the last t...
Mon, Jun 30 2014, 3:50 PM
Considering that today's trading range wasn't meaningfully wider than Friday's AND that closing prices look like they'll fall inside Friday's range, t...
Fri, Jun 27 2014, 12:33 PM
Heading into today, we were prepared for there to be no particular rhyme or reason behind market movements. Money managers are primarily focused on...
Fri, Jun 27 2014, 7:42 AM
The actual end of the quarter isn't until Monday, but it's not uncommon for market participants to get end-of-quarter (or end-of-month for that matter...
Fri, Jun 27 2014, 5:54 PM
For a third straight day, bond markets improved into the domestic session and gave back gains in the afternoon (chart below). Of those three days, to...
Thu, Jun 26 2014, 12:10 PM
As we discussed in The Day Ahead , bond markets were sending signals that they were embarking on a trend of improvement. The caveat was that those s...
Thu, Jun 26 2014, 7:42 AM
In at least 2 discussions on MBS Live yesterday, I referenced the current technical landscape in a clever way by saying the biggest risk to the analys...
Thu, Jun 26 2014, 5:55 PM
For a second day, bond markets and/or mortgage rates (take your pick) frolicked outside the walls of the castle. In this case, that castle is "the ra...
Wed, Jun 25 2014, 11:56 AM
It's been a nice, straightforward morning for bond markets. Data was much weaker than expected and bonds rallied as a result.
That said, it's not...
Wed, Jun 25 2014, 7:42 AM
Bond market participation is such a big and complex thing that the true nature of cause and effect can only be guessed at. Some guesses are more edu...
Wed, Jun 25 2014, 5:31 PM
If you happened to look at MBS/Treasuries around 8:35am, the day was looking pretty great. But that ended up being the best of it, and a long, slow s...
Tue, Jun 24 2014, 11:42 AM
Technically, MBS and Treasuries are both in positive territory when compared to yesterday's closing levels. That said, those closing levels were the ...
Tue, Jun 24 2014, 7:51 AM
While tomorrow arguably hosts the week's most important economic report, today wins in terms of sheer volume and variety. We get almost every flavor...
Tue, Jun 24 2014, 4:33 PM
As has been necessary since the beginning of June, any volatility we experience during the day is forced to occur within 'the range.' That was the ca...
Mon, Jun 23 2014, 12:28 PM
MBS have managed to hold on to most of their gains seen on Friday, even after Existing Home Sales came in stronger than expected. Prices were highe...
Mon, Jun 23 2014, 7:39 AM
One of the biggest stories of the past 3 months has been the big miss in first quarter GDP followed by a big downward revision leaving growth at -1.0%...
Mon, Jun 23 2014, 5:48 PM
Behind the scenes, bond market activity was very light today--not uncommon for Mondays and most Friday's during the summer months. In the morning, th...
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