Wed, Apr 9 2014, 7:50 AM
Last night was Class A Settlement for MBS--aka " the roll ." If the roll causes any confusion (which it tends to do until it clicks for you), try thi...
Wed, Apr 9 2014, 4:18 PM
The day ends with something of a mixed message as Treasuries are still slightly weaker in 10 and 30yr maturities while 2-7yrs are stronger, along with...
Tue, Apr 8 2014, 12:16 PM
MBS traded lower during the first hour of the day but made it back into positive territory just after 9am. Treasuries have followed a similar patte...
Tue, Apr 8 2014, 7:51 AM
Yesterday, we talked about the current week being an opportunity for bond markets to reflect on the range that's dominated most of 2014 (starting Jan ...
Tue, Apr 8 2014, 4:38 PM
There were no overly interesting headlines or economic reports in today's session to guide market movements. Instead of taking cues from data and eve...
Mon, Apr 7 2014, 11:52 AM
Stock market momentum isn't the only consideration for bond markets this morning, but it's perhaps the most overt . So far, it's helped MBS and Trea...
Mon, Apr 7 2014, 7:51 AM
This week marks the first major intermission for the bond markets story in 2014. The first act was intensely sideways, leading to phrases like " ser...
Mon, Apr 7 2014, 4:06 PM
Today's story isn't much more complicated than the headline. It's not uncommon to see some follow-through on Monday following NFP Friday if the latte...
Fri, Apr 4 2014, 12:30 PM
Bond markets came into the session essentially unchanged after having held near the higher end of their recent range in the few days leading up to thi...
Fri, Apr 4 2014, 7:51 AM
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is always the biggest potential market mover on any given month in terms of economic reports. FOMC Announcements, for instance...
Fri, Apr 4 2014, 4:56 PM
If you missed it for some reason--and that's entirely possible on an NFP day--there was an important dark horse market mover today, just a short while...
Thu, Apr 3 2014, 11:56 AM
There were two options for bond markets heading into today's session. Recent weakness could have been extended, resulting in a "lead-off" taking yiel...
Thu, Apr 3 2014, 7:31 AM
As we frequently discuss on NFP weeks, it's not uncommon for bond markets to drift into weaker territory in spite of contrary data or events. This sa...
Thu, Apr 3 2014, 4:05 PM
In one of today's updates for MBS live subscribers, I noted that bond markets continued to trade " as expected ." Where did those expectations come...
Wed, Apr 2 2014, 12:30 PM
To be clear, bond markets are indeed in their weakest recent territory AFTER this morning's economic data, but NOT necessarily BECAUSE of it. While...
Wed, Apr 2 2014, 7:45 AM
If there's a consistent theme for bond markets so far in 2014, it's been "indecision." I referred to it as a " Serious Monotony Problem " on Monday, ...
Wed, Apr 2 2014, 4:05 PM
Bond markets sold off absolutely as much as they could have today while still technically staying inside the longer-term "sideways" range leading up...
Tue, Apr 1 2014, 12:17 PM
Treasuries were weaker overnight, and in such a way that suggested organic selling pressure. In other words, US bond markets weren't simply weaker be...
Tue, Apr 1 2014, 8:00 AM
Bond markets got off to a volatile start yesterday, but ended the day close to unchanged. There's really very little that Treasuries could do at th...
Tue, Apr 1 2014, 4:20 PM
A real snoozer today for bond markets... Yesterday afternoon's late-day strength was washed out by overnight weakness. MBS started the day perfectl...
Mon, Mar 31 2014, 11:45 AM
Bond markets began the week on something of a volatile note. Treasuries had weakened slightly in the overnight session and MBS walked in the door a...
Mon, Mar 31 2014, 8:00 AM
For most of 2013, the mission was clear for bond markets. It mostly involved rapid selling and significant amounts of pain for any fans of low inte...
Mon, Mar 31 2014, 4:01 PM
The 'after-hours' session (3pm-5pm, following the close of Treasury pit trading) is seeing an ongoing trickle of sideways to slightly stronger prices ...
Fri, Mar 28 2014, 11:30 AM
There has been a good amount of correlation between stock prices and bond yields heading into the end of the month/quarter. This is not an uncommon o...
Fri, Mar 28 2014, 8:00 AM
There's some conventional wisdom that suggests asking questions in the title of an article is not a good idea. Pish posh! When it comes to financial...
Fri, Mar 28 2014, 4:53 PM
If you'd like to reduce this week's activity to a very basic concept and seek to explain just about everything we've seen in the past week as a functi...
Thu, Mar 27 2014, 12:07 PM
Bond markets were almost perfectly flat overnight and held a narrow 2bp range in 10yr Treasury yields. MBS started out in slightly negative territor...
Thu, Mar 27 2014, 8:00 AM
Bond markets will get what is probably their busiest day of economic events today. Right out of the gate, two relatively important pieces of data w...
Thu, Mar 27 2014, 4:05 PM
While not all the data was stronger this morning, the only stand-out market mover certainly was. Jobless Claims fell to 311k from 320k previously, be...
Wed, Mar 26 2014, 12:04 PM
It's been a fairly uneventful, yet positive morning for bond markets. After coming into the domestic session in just slightly weaker territory, bon...
Wed, Mar 26 2014, 8:00 AM
In the days following last Wednesday's FOMC shake-up, bond markets have visibly lacked inspiration to do much of anything. That could be chalked up...
Wed, Mar 26 2014, 4:07 PM
Today's market activity is a tale of two events: the morning's Durable Goods data and the afternoon's 5yr Treasury auction.
Heading into the 8:3...
Tue, Mar 25 2014, 12:12 PM
A good thing to keep in mind about any data-based conclusion in financial markets is that details matter . This is true both in terms of the referen...
Tue, Mar 25 2014, 8:00 AM
Whereas yesterday got the week off to a slow start in terms of economic data, today makes up for it. There are two reports in the 9am time slot--both...
Mon, Mar 24 2014, 12:19 PM
Bond markets began the day in weaker territory after a relatively uneventful overnight session. The losses were minimal and left both MBS and Treasur...
Mon, Mar 24 2014, 8:00 AM
On the one hand, this week's calendar of events is fairly well packed. On the other, it's spring break. While that may not sap the level of activity...
Mon, Mar 24 2014, 4:46 PM
Bond markets are heading toward the end of the session very close to unchanged levels. This is a small accomplishment considering they began the day ...
Fri, Mar 21 2014, 12:38 PM
We're heading into an afternoon that's likely to see more bets being made on Basketball games than in financial markets. Bonds in particular are on...
Fri, Mar 21 2014, 8:00 AM
Apart from April options expiry in Treasuries, there's really not anything to trade on today for bond markets. Wednesday's Fed forecast speedbump was...
Fri, Mar 21 2014, 4:39 PM
Don't look now, but against a slightly longer-term backdrop, bond markets merely continued in the same old ranges this week, despite being pushed near...
Thu, Mar 20 2014, 12:57 PM
The day is playing out perfectly in line with our discussion in The Day Ahead . Because of Yellen's candor in conjunction with the mathematically si...
Thu, Mar 20 2014, 8:00 AM
For a full recap of yesterday's bond market sell-off, read this . For a synopsis, read this: Bond markets sold off yesterday, not so much because of...
Thu, Mar 20 2014, 5:37 PM
While yesterday was a surprise due to changes in Fed forecasts, today was anything but --at least if you bought in to the notion that yesterday's sel...
Wed, Mar 19 2014, 12:23 PM
Bond markets began the day reasonably close to unchanged levels, but were soon moving into weaker territory . Part of the move can be attributed to ...
Wed, Mar 19 2014, 11:02 AM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December indicates that ______________ (economic activity) / (POTUS consternati...
Wed, Mar 19 2014, 8:00 AM
Today would normally be a good test for market motivations. We have been able to plainly see that Ukraine-related headlines can directly affect dome...
Wed, Mar 19 2014, 4:59 PM
As expected, today's FOMC Announcement was every bit the snoozer it should have been. We knew qualitative guidance was likely to replace the unempl...
Wed, Mar 19 2014, 2:06 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in
January indicates that growth in economic activity slowed during the
winter mo...
Tue, Mar 18 2014, 12:14 PM
Overnight market movement was once again most visibly affected by headlines relating to the situation in Ukraine. This time around it was a speech ...
Tue, Mar 18 2014, 8:00 AM
Day 2 of post-referendum Ukraine may well look a lot like day one. What some feared would become an actual war, instead may simply fade from importan...
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