Tue, Oct 7 2014, 12:16 PM
While trading activity is nowhere near that seen on Wednesday through Friday last week, it's picked up a bit today. That's largely been a net positi...
Tue, Oct 7 2014, 7:32 AM
After an exceptionally busy week last week and with very little on the calendar of scheduled events, this is an understandably slow week for bond ma...
Tue, Oct 7 2014, 4:34 PM
I was disappointed to see a few article headlines coming out this afternoon crediting this morning's negative economic data in Europe for an impressiv...
Mon, Oct 6 2014, 12:15 PM
Today's most notable feature is it's lack of volume and participation. Both have subsided since last Wednesday-- proof positive that economic data i...
Mon, Oct 6 2014, 7:35 AM
The week ahead is something of a palette-cleanser to last week's bolder flavors. Big-ticket events will now be few and far between , but the opportu...
Mon, Oct 6 2014, 3:59 PM
One of our most frequently discussed themes of late has been the relative disregard for economic data on the part of bond markets. This was to be p...
Fri, Oct 3 2014, 12:11 PM
NFP came out much stronger than expected with solid revisions to the past two reports, and a drop to 5.9% on the unemployment rate. With revisions, t...
Fri, Oct 3 2014, 7:32 AM
There are only so many ways to discuss the same old charts and trends in bond markets. So let's have a fireside chat about NFP and the current state ...
Fri, Oct 3 2014, 3:48 PM
Depending on which "close" we're talking about, bond markets may actually break even by the end of the day. In terms of the 3pm Treasury pit close, 1...
Thu, Oct 2 2014, 12:40 PM
It's one thing for bond markets to ignore stock markets when the latter is moving less than a quarter of a percent day-over-day. That's been the case...
Thu, Oct 2 2014, 7:32 AM
10yr yields dropped a precipitous 10bps yesterday. While this isn't much compared to some of the more volatile days of the past 6 years, it's one of ...
Thu, Oct 2 2014, 3:50 PM
Bond markets had a fairly tame day given the potential for the ECB to move markets along with the potential to react to yesterday's big move. In gene...
Wed, Oct 1 2014, 12:35 PM
It's asking quite a lot to believe that the single most consistent source of guidance and inspiration for trading levels--economic data--is pretty muc...
Wed, Oct 1 2014, 7:39 AM
Today is the first day of a new month and new quarter, and Octobers have historically been active for bond markets. That leaves us to wonder whether ...
Wed, Oct 1 2014, 5:42 PM
There's little else today's recap can offer that hasn't already been covered in the mid-day commentary. Check that out here: Strong Bond Market Rall...
Tue, Sep 30 2014, 12:38 PM
The relevance of month/quarter-end trading considerations isn't limited to the US Treasury market. Month-end for German bond markets (the largest in ...
Tue, Sep 30 2014, 7:32 AM
It continues to be the case that economic data is guilty until proven innocent. The crime? Not being very relevant in terms of market movement compa...
Tue, Sep 30 2014, 4:30 PM
Month/Quarter-end trading dynamics made for a volatile day in the context of the recent range. It wasn't so much that the moves were big, just that t...
Mon, Sep 29 2014, 12:24 PM
MBS and Treasuries are both in distinctly stronger territory today after an overnight rally that reached it's zenith by 9am. There are quite a few fa...
Mon, Sep 29 2014, 7:43 AM
After September's big move higher in rates cooled off, we've been left in limbo , to some extent. There certainly hasn't been a painful continuation...
Mon, Sep 29 2014, 4:51 PM
Bond markets were in the throes of a late overnight session rally by the time the domestic session began. The rally began at 6:30am Eastern time and ...
Fri, Sep 26 2014, 7:34 AM
Will GDP finally be the piece of economic data that actually moves markets? No... but it might play that role on TV. I'm serious actually.
Mark...
Fri, Sep 26 2014, 5:20 PM
In case you missed it, today saw one of the biggest ever market reactions to a personnel announcement. Get caught up HERE if you like. There is ...
Fri, Sep 26 2014, 1:33 PM
GDP came in this morning at a whopping +4.6%, so bond markets are losing ground due to the strong economic data, right?
Wrong...
Bond markets mo...
Thu, Sep 25 2014, 12:23 PM
Once again, economic data has been a non-event in terms of market movement. Instead, two other sources of inspiration clearly stand out for US bond...
Thu, Sep 25 2014, 7:41 AM
Things are finally getting interesting again for bond markets after almost all of 2014 has been relatively boring. Unfortunately, what's interesting ...
Thu, Sep 25 2014, 5:16 PM
Yesterday's sell-off was somewhat disconcerting as it raised the possibility that the push back against September's weakness had run out of steam. ...
Wed, Sep 24 2014, 12:50 PM
Overnight Treasury trading was nothing to write home about. 10yr yields began the day very close to 'unchanged' after initial weakness during Asian h...
Wed, Sep 24 2014, 7:32 AM
If you have TV, Internet, or if you speak to any other humans, it's hard to miss the fact that stocks have been on an exceptionally linear, multi-year...
Wed, Sep 24 2014, 5:36 PM
Today started off well enough for MBS and Treasuries. Although the first part of the overnight session was a bit weaker, European trading helped get ...
Tue, Sep 23 2014, 12:29 PM
Once again, bond markets came into the domestic session at slightly stronger levels and have more or less flat-lined. Fannie 3.5s have held inside ...
Tue, Sep 23 2014, 7:25 AM
I'm not exactly sure why the presence of economic data (or lack thereof) is worthy of a spot in any headlines relating to the day's market outlook. F...
Tue, Sep 23 2014, 5:21 PM
While mortgage rates aren't based on Treasuries, broader bond market trends are much more easily considered in the context of 10yr yields. Those cros...
Mon, Sep 22 2014, 12:31 PM
This morning's Existing Home Sales data was slightly weaker than expected. The annual pace fell to 5.05 mln from 5.15 mln last month. Expectations...
Mon, Sep 22 2014, 7:32 AM
This will be a relatively busy week for economic data and scheduled events. No single item stands out as an epic potential market mover, but the tea...
Mon, Sep 22 2014, 5:36 PM
Today's session ended up being much like last Thursday's in that a narrow trading range persisted all day and never made a convincing attempt to mov...
Fri, Sep 19 2014, 12:52 PM
Both MBS and Treasuries are back in line with trading levels from the close of business on Tuesday. Today's gains have been moderate during the domes...
Fri, Sep 19 2014, 7:34 AM
Yesterday's session was too close to call as far as being a positive or negative epilogue to Wednesday's FOMC day. While it's always positive to not ...
Fri, Sep 19 2014, 4:00 PM
Most of the conceptual analysis of today's action was already covered in the Mid-Day . There were no significant developments into the afternoon, bu...
Thu, Sep 18 2014, 12:39 PM
Occasionally the days after FOMC Announcements can can offer more volatility and faster-paced movement than that seen on the day of the announcement. ...
Thu, Sep 18 2014, 7:32 AM
With the Fed-related events out of the way, we'll finally get to see how much they mattered. Yesterday's initial market reaction--while negative--was...
Thu, Sep 18 2014, 5:01 PM
Today turned out to be spooky, or at least 'uninformative' from a market-watching standpoint. Here we have an active trading day following a hotly-...
Wed, Sep 17 2014, 12:35 PM
Bond markets were slightly stronger again overnight but in the context of the past few weeks, we're essentially flat for the past 3 days. This consol...
Wed, Sep 17 2014, 7:24 AM
Today brings the biggest set of events in weeks, perhaps months. Starting at 2pm, the FOMC (aka "the Fed") releases it's official policy statement an...
Wed, Sep 17 2014, 5:19 PM
As far as Fed days go, this one was pretty tame. That's especially true if we consider the amount of hype and anxiety associated with this particular...
Wed, Sep 17 2014, 2:03 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July
suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. On
balan...
Tue, Sep 16 2014, 12:18 PM
It's generally been another uneventful day in the shadow of tomorrow's FOMC events. There just hasn't been anything on the calendar or any unschedu...
Tue, Sep 16 2014, 7:33 AM
What are we even supposed to do with today? Whether from the standpoint of market participant or market watcher, there's precious little to care ab...
Tue, Sep 16 2014, 4:30 PM
Bond markets had their ups and downs today, but ultimately, none of it really matters in the bigger picture. Whether we look at where trading levels ...
Mon, Sep 15 2014, 12:13 PM
Treasuries began the overnight session moving to even higher yields than those seen on Friday afternoon. Just after 4:30am, German Bunds put in a str...
MBS Market Alerts
