Tue, Sep 2 2014, 7:25 AM
While the week ahead is shorter than normal thanks to Labor day, it's no less relevant. In fact, it's probably quite a bit more relevant than anyt...
Tue, Sep 2 2014, 4:35 PM
Fannie 3.5s stayed inside a 4 tick (.125) range today despite a round of upbeat economic data at 10am and a clear trend toward higher yields in Trea...
Fri, Aug 29 2014, 12:23 PM
Right there in the title of the first commentary of the day: "more economic data that probably won't matter." There's always some small tinge of doub...
Fri, Aug 29 2014, 7:42 AM
NOTE: Bond markets and mortgage lenders (and banks, among other things) will be closed on Monday for Labor Day.
This morning's headline suggests t...
Fri, Aug 29 2014, 4:07 PM
Overnight trading was uneventful for bond markets and made for a just slightly weaker open for both Treasuries and MBS. Economic data was completely ...
Thu, Aug 28 2014, 11:42 AM
Even the confirmation of a 4%+ GDP and the strongest read on Pending Home Sales in 11 months were not enough to wrest control of bond market momentum ...
Thu, Aug 28 2014, 7:28 AM
Today is the busiest day of the week for domestic economic data and Treasury Auctions. The 8:30 time slot brings Jobless Claims and the 2nd revisio...
Thu, Aug 28 2014, 4:45 PM
In yesterday's recap, we discussed the phenomenon whereby most of the market movement has been happening overnight during these Euro-centric times, ...
Wed, Aug 27 2014, 11:46 AM
Bond markets began the day much-improved after a strong overnight session. Economic data was pervasively weaker in Europe and expectations for Eu...
Wed, Aug 27 2014, 7:27 AM
When Q1 GDP first came out weaker than expected and was subsequently revised all the way to -2.9%, it put a damper on many assessments of US economic ...
Wed, Aug 27 2014, 4:57 PM
Both MBS and Treasuries started the day in good shape as a bout of universally downbeat data washed over the Eurozone. Speculation for some measure...
Tue, Aug 26 2014, 12:29 PM
Bond markets started the day little-changed from the previous session and having seen little volatility overnight. Although it wasn't destined to b...
Tue, Aug 26 2014, 7:31 AM
A cute little phenomenon got a fair amount of buzz on an otherwise slow news day yesterday. It has to do with today's Durable Goods data and the fact...
Tue, Aug 26 2014, 4:31 PM
The last week of Summer continues to be the last week of Summer as far as markets are concerned. Email auto-responders are working overtime, parents ...
Mon, Aug 25 2014, 12:23 PM
In more ways than one, today has been ' modest ' for bond markets. The overnight session was slower than normal, even for a Monday due to a bank holi...
Mon, Aug 25 2014, 7:40 AM
Few pieces of domestic economic data have caught the attention of bond markets recently. That's not to say there haven't been short term reactions to...
Mon, Aug 25 2014, 4:57 PM
The biggest story and smallest surprise of the day was the fact that trading conditions in bond markets were extra light. Between the market closur...
Fri, Aug 22 2014, 12:36 PM
J-Hole Knee-Jerk: A brief, but volatile market reaction to Fed Chair Yellen's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium.
That's been the day's primary ...
Fri, Aug 22 2014, 7:31 AM
Yellen delivers the keynote speech at Jackson Hole today. What does that even mean? I remember being somewhat perplexed by the unclear significance ...
Fri, Aug 22 2014, 5:05 PM
With limited interruptions, bond markets have been sleepwalking since most of the summer. While that has afforded them some measure of forward prog...
Thu, Aug 21 2014, 11:18 AM
It's been a pleasantly resilient day for MBS and Treasuries so far. After a completely uneventful overnight session, both opened just slightly weak...
Thu, Aug 21 2014, 7:42 AM
Today's calendar of scheduled events is the busiest of the week with Jobless Claims at 8:30am followed by Philly Fed and Existing Home Sales at 10am. ...
Thu, Aug 21 2014, 4:29 PM
One week ago tomorrow, Treasuries fell to their lowest yields in over a year after Ukraine said it blew up part of a Russian convoy. Until yesterday ...
Wed, Aug 20 2014, 12:25 PM
MBS are outperforming Treasuries today and have been flirting with positive territory heading into the noon hour. Treasuries are still about 1bp hi...
Wed, Aug 20 2014, 7:28 AM
Bond markets have endured 2 days of losses so far this week. Both days have also been prime examples of illiquid summertime trading. This simply mea...
Wed, Aug 20 2014, 5:19 PM
Bond markets have a secret. Or rather, we have to pretend like it's a secret in order to turn something very boring into something remotely interesti...
Tue, Aug 19 2014, 12:33 PM
Relative to yesterday's exceptionally linear trading, prices have been much more volatile today. The overnight session was constructive for global ...
Tue, Aug 19 2014, 7:43 AM
It remains to be seen whether today's economic data will even matter given the incredibly light participation so far this week. In other words, today...
Tue, Aug 19 2014, 4:15 PM
Everything that happened in bond markets today, happened before noon. Whether this was a factor of European markets contributing to the volatility or...
Mon, Aug 18 2014, 12:11 PM
As is frequently the case for Monday's during the summer, bond markets have not been very active. Trading levels have remained in a narrow range as...
Mon, Aug 18 2014, 7:34 AM
Drama is fueling a surprisingly strong 2014 rally in US bond markets. Most of that drama has to do with the European economy and geopolitical risks o...
Mon, Aug 18 2014, 5:23 PM
The day started out inoffensively enough with MBS and Treasuries only down slightly from Friday's latest levels. Those were also incidentally the be...
Fri, Aug 15 2014, 12:22 PM
The trading day began mostly uneventfully, with bond markets working their way into positive territory by the domestic open. Economic data didn't sta...
Fri, Aug 15 2014, 7:41 AM
There are plenty of frustrating times in financial markets where a trend is only as good as it's most recent trading day. This is the old: "the tren...
Fri, Aug 15 2014, 5:13 PM
MBS got very close to their best levels of the year today, as did mortgage rates. Treasuries, on the other hand, crashed through their previous flo...
Thu, Aug 14 2014, 12:14 PM
Today has brought a decent dose of volatility to bond markets. Overnight trading saw Treasury yields rise somewhat abruptly during Asian hours. The ...
Thu, Aug 14 2014, 7:40 AM
It's fun anthropomorphize bond markets. After all, by the time we admit that even "black box" trading still results from human programming, markets a...
Thu, Aug 14 2014, 5:18 PM
It's getting a bit eerie at this point. MBS have had extra calm afternoons every day this week, and haven't lost meaningful ground on any of them. O...
Wed, Aug 13 2014, 11:56 AM
Relative to the first two days of the week, today's biggest loser (in terms of bond yields) is Europe. German Bund yields rose less than Treasuries...
Wed, Aug 13 2014, 7:31 AM
There has been some economic data that bond markets have clearly cared about recently. GDP comes to mind as the most recent example. But it was bare...
Wed, Aug 13 2014, 4:40 PM
After a fairly slow start to the week, bond markets threatened to move higher yesterday afternoon and into the overnight session. With bonds trading ...
Tue, Aug 12 2014, 11:57 AM
Both MBS and Treasuries have gone no higher or lower than they did yesterday, though they've made relatively quick work of exploring most of those ran...
Tue, Aug 12 2014, 7:33 AM
As we recently discussed, summertime Mondays might as well be part of a 3-day weekend. Volume and participation on Mondays in July and August especia...
Tue, Aug 12 2014, 4:58 PM
MBS were generally flat today while Treasuries were slightly skewed toward higher yields. There's really not much more to observe about today's mov...
Mon, Aug 11 2014, 11:34 AM
As we've discussed in the past, bond rallies that are fueled by geopolitical risk require constant feeding if they're to survive and thrive. In oth...
Mon, Aug 11 2014, 7:33 AM
Even during the strongest moves lower for rates, we'll still see periodic weakness within the trend. In other words, if rates are falling and general...
Mon, Aug 11 2014, 4:33 PM
Treasuries and MBS are heading out the door in very similar territory to Friday's latest levels. This is something of a relief considering they looke...
Fri, Aug 8 2014, 11:49 AM
There are plenty of big stories right now. In terms of broader markets, last night's announcement of US air strikes in Iraq was clearly the biggest...
Fri, Aug 8 2014, 7:31 AM
The simplest and easiest way to approach bond market movement is to simply follow economic data and analyze the moves in the context of that data. Wh...
Fri, Aug 8 2014, 5:04 PM
Remember the Polish Foreign Minister's warning about Russian troops amassing at the Ukrainian border? No? Can't blame you there, but what about the ...
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