Mon, Sep 15 2014, 7:27 AM
As Treasury yields and mortgage rates spiraled rapidly higher over the past two weeks, 2014's steady trend toward lower rates quickly strayed into v...
Mon, Sep 15 2014, 4:49 PM
Japan was out for a holiday today and US markets might as well have been. Apart from the first few minutes of the domestic session, today was one of...
Fri, Sep 12 2014, 12:01 PM
Throughout the week, we've had our eyes on the long term downtrend in rates stretching back to the beginning of 2014. It provided some context for th...
Fri, Sep 12 2014, 7:31 AM
I hate the terms 'overbought' and 'oversold.' At best, they cause confusion, and at worst they serve as the basis for faulty decision-making among ...
Fri, Sep 12 2014, 4:35 PM
Actually, the last 2 weeks have been ugly for bond markets. It's almost as if a switch was flipped as soon as September began.
Just when ...
Thu, Sep 11 2014, 12:05 PM
After 8 days in throes of volatility and weakness, bond markets are finally catching a small break today. For now, it's no more than a half-hearted...
Thu, Sep 11 2014, 7:31 AM
When we talk about the 'longer term trend' these days, we're referencing the slow and steady improvements for bond markets that began in early 2014. ...
Thu, Sep 11 2014, 4:26 PM
It was a bit of a cruel session for bond markets as the day started out in stronger territory only to sell off with less than 2 hours to go. After 8 ...
Wed, Sep 10 2014, 12:41 PM
Fannie 3.5s are down 10/32nds from yesterday's latest levels. Keep in mind that today's prices reflect October coupons whereas yesterday's were based...
Wed, Sep 10 2014, 7:33 AM
Yesterday's mid-day commentary did a good job of summing up the general malaise in bond markets. Revisit it HERE if you like, but here's the impo...
Wed, Sep 10 2014, 5:00 PM
Whiel we could see some sort of technical bounce or a data-driven consolidation of recent trading patterns, bond markets have generally been on a tear...
Tue, Sep 9 2014, 12:13 PM
Negative momentum has been pervasive in September so far. Even the brief rally after Friday's jobs report failed to get yields back down to Thursday'...
Tue, Sep 9 2014, 7:39 AM
September has been decidedly negative for bond markets so far, and largely without any regard for economic data and events. Given that 'month-end' ...
Tue, Sep 9 2014, 4:40 PM
NOTE: Tonight is "the roll" for Fannie and Freddie 30yr Fixed MBS. That means that September coupons will be done trading at the end of business tod...
Mon, Sep 8 2014, 12:43 PM
Monday continues to look like a mere shadow of the trading days at the end of last week. For example, Fannie 3.5 MBS have been in a range between 1...
Mon, Sep 8 2014, 7:33 AM
Compared to last week, we have fewer potential market movers on the calendar in the week ahead. But that doesn't make it any less important. If anyt...
Mon, Sep 8 2014, 4:37 PM
Bond markets started the day in stronger territory, but well-within the range set by Friday's trading. Treasuries took cues from Europe amid limited ...
Fri, Sep 5 2014, 12:20 PM
Treasuries and MBS dodged a bullet today in that a strong showing from the Employment Situation Report (aka "NFP" for the primary component: nonfarm...
Fri, Sep 5 2014, 7:31 AM
Bond markets are vulnerable right now--perhaps more vulnerable than they've been for several months. During that time, they've taken on an air of n...
Fri, Sep 5 2014, 5:05 PM
Some movies are interesting and dramatic in a way that real life tends not to be. This even applies to many TV series where the protagonist "solves" ...
Thu, Sep 4 2014, 7:31 AM
The European Central Bank (ECB) announcement hits at 7:45am this morning and ECB President Draghi does the usual press conference at 830am. With th...
Thu, Sep 4 2014, 5:04 PM
Most every indication we've had from economic data in recent months has been that it just doesn't matter that much to bond markets. Treasuries, esp...
Thu, Sep 4 2014, 1:00 PM
It's been a busy morning for bond markets, with lots of economic data as well as the European Central Bank Announcement and Press Conference. Several...
Wed, Sep 3 2014, 12:40 PM
Today's entire trading session centers on one key event: an overnight announcement that a Ukraine Ceasefire had been agreed to by both 'sides.' Bond...
Wed, Sep 3 2014, 9:11 AM
Yesterday marked the most abrupt day of selling in bond markets since the end of July. In some ways, it was a wake-up call as to the time of year, ...
Wed, Sep 3 2014, 5:11 PM
In terms of interesting, singular market-moving events, only one thing happened today. It was at 4am that headlines came out suggesting a ceasefire b...
Tue, Sep 2 2014, 12:54 PM
Bond markets had been setting up for the extended weekend by being cautious about getting caught on the wrong side of this week's trade. Consider the...
Tue, Sep 2 2014, 7:25 AM
While the week ahead is shorter than normal thanks to Labor day, it's no less relevant. In fact, it's probably quite a bit more relevant than anyt...
Tue, Sep 2 2014, 4:35 PM
Fannie 3.5s stayed inside a 4 tick (.125) range today despite a round of upbeat economic data at 10am and a clear trend toward higher yields in Trea...
Fri, Aug 29 2014, 12:23 PM
Right there in the title of the first commentary of the day: "more economic data that probably won't matter." There's always some small tinge of doub...
Fri, Aug 29 2014, 7:42 AM
NOTE: Bond markets and mortgage lenders (and banks, among other things) will be closed on Monday for Labor Day.
This morning's headline suggests t...
Fri, Aug 29 2014, 4:07 PM
Overnight trading was uneventful for bond markets and made for a just slightly weaker open for both Treasuries and MBS. Economic data was completely ...
Thu, Aug 28 2014, 11:42 AM
Even the confirmation of a 4%+ GDP and the strongest read on Pending Home Sales in 11 months were not enough to wrest control of bond market momentum ...
Thu, Aug 28 2014, 7:28 AM
Today is the busiest day of the week for domestic economic data and Treasury Auctions. The 8:30 time slot brings Jobless Claims and the 2nd revisio...
Thu, Aug 28 2014, 4:45 PM
In yesterday's recap, we discussed the phenomenon whereby most of the market movement has been happening overnight during these Euro-centric times, ...
Wed, Aug 27 2014, 11:46 AM
Bond markets began the day much-improved after a strong overnight session. Economic data was pervasively weaker in Europe and expectations for Eu...
Wed, Aug 27 2014, 7:27 AM
When Q1 GDP first came out weaker than expected and was subsequently revised all the way to -2.9%, it put a damper on many assessments of US economic ...
Wed, Aug 27 2014, 4:57 PM
Both MBS and Treasuries started the day in good shape as a bout of universally downbeat data washed over the Eurozone. Speculation for some measure...
Tue, Aug 26 2014, 12:29 PM
Bond markets started the day little-changed from the previous session and having seen little volatility overnight. Although it wasn't destined to b...
Tue, Aug 26 2014, 7:31 AM
A cute little phenomenon got a fair amount of buzz on an otherwise slow news day yesterday. It has to do with today's Durable Goods data and the fact...
Tue, Aug 26 2014, 4:31 PM
The last week of Summer continues to be the last week of Summer as far as markets are concerned. Email auto-responders are working overtime, parents ...
Mon, Aug 25 2014, 12:23 PM
In more ways than one, today has been ' modest ' for bond markets. The overnight session was slower than normal, even for a Monday due to a bank holi...
Mon, Aug 25 2014, 7:40 AM
Few pieces of domestic economic data have caught the attention of bond markets recently. That's not to say there haven't been short term reactions to...
Mon, Aug 25 2014, 4:57 PM
The biggest story and smallest surprise of the day was the fact that trading conditions in bond markets were extra light. Between the market closur...
Fri, Aug 22 2014, 12:36 PM
J-Hole Knee-Jerk: A brief, but volatile market reaction to Fed Chair Yellen's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium.
That's been the day's primary ...
Fri, Aug 22 2014, 7:31 AM
Yellen delivers the keynote speech at Jackson Hole today. What does that even mean? I remember being somewhat perplexed by the unclear significance ...
Fri, Aug 22 2014, 5:05 PM
With limited interruptions, bond markets have been sleepwalking since most of the summer. While that has afforded them some measure of forward prog...
Thu, Aug 21 2014, 11:18 AM
It's been a pleasantly resilient day for MBS and Treasuries so far. After a completely uneventful overnight session, both opened just slightly weak...
Thu, Aug 21 2014, 7:42 AM
Today's calendar of scheduled events is the busiest of the week with Jobless Claims at 8:30am followed by Philly Fed and Existing Home Sales at 10am. ...
Thu, Aug 21 2014, 4:29 PM
One week ago tomorrow, Treasuries fell to their lowest yields in over a year after Ukraine said it blew up part of a Russian convoy. Until yesterday ...
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