Fri, Mar 28 2014, 11:30 AM
There has been a good amount of correlation between stock prices and bond yields heading into the end of the month/quarter. This is not an uncommon o...
Fri, Mar 28 2014, 8:00 AM
There's some conventional wisdom that suggests asking questions in the title of an article is not a good idea. Pish posh! When it comes to financial...
Fri, Mar 28 2014, 4:53 PM
If you'd like to reduce this week's activity to a very basic concept and seek to explain just about everything we've seen in the past week as a functi...
Thu, Mar 27 2014, 12:07 PM
Bond markets were almost perfectly flat overnight and held a narrow 2bp range in 10yr Treasury yields. MBS started out in slightly negative territor...
Thu, Mar 27 2014, 8:00 AM
Bond markets will get what is probably their busiest day of economic events today. Right out of the gate, two relatively important pieces of data w...
Thu, Mar 27 2014, 4:05 PM
While not all the data was stronger this morning, the only stand-out market mover certainly was. Jobless Claims fell to 311k from 320k previously, be...
Wed, Mar 26 2014, 12:04 PM
It's been a fairly uneventful, yet positive morning for bond markets. After coming into the domestic session in just slightly weaker territory, bon...
Wed, Mar 26 2014, 8:00 AM
In the days following last Wednesday's FOMC shake-up, bond markets have visibly lacked inspiration to do much of anything. That could be chalked up...
Wed, Mar 26 2014, 4:07 PM
Today's market activity is a tale of two events: the morning's Durable Goods data and the afternoon's 5yr Treasury auction.
Heading into the 8:3...
Tue, Mar 25 2014, 12:12 PM
A good thing to keep in mind about any data-based conclusion in financial markets is that details matter . This is true both in terms of the referen...
Tue, Mar 25 2014, 8:00 AM
Whereas yesterday got the week off to a slow start in terms of economic data, today makes up for it. There are two reports in the 9am time slot--both...
Mon, Mar 24 2014, 12:19 PM
Bond markets began the day in weaker territory after a relatively uneventful overnight session. The losses were minimal and left both MBS and Treasur...
Mon, Mar 24 2014, 8:00 AM
On the one hand, this week's calendar of events is fairly well packed. On the other, it's spring break. While that may not sap the level of activity...
Mon, Mar 24 2014, 4:46 PM
Bond markets are heading toward the end of the session very close to unchanged levels. This is a small accomplishment considering they began the day ...
Fri, Mar 21 2014, 12:38 PM
We're heading into an afternoon that's likely to see more bets being made on Basketball games than in financial markets. Bonds in particular are on...
Fri, Mar 21 2014, 8:00 AM
Apart from April options expiry in Treasuries, there's really not anything to trade on today for bond markets. Wednesday's Fed forecast speedbump was...
Fri, Mar 21 2014, 4:39 PM
Don't look now, but against a slightly longer-term backdrop, bond markets merely continued in the same old ranges this week, despite being pushed near...
Thu, Mar 20 2014, 12:57 PM
The day is playing out perfectly in line with our discussion in The Day Ahead . Because of Yellen's candor in conjunction with the mathematically si...
Thu, Mar 20 2014, 8:00 AM
For a full recap of yesterday's bond market sell-off, read this . For a synopsis, read this: Bond markets sold off yesterday, not so much because of...
Thu, Mar 20 2014, 5:37 PM
While yesterday was a surprise due to changes in Fed forecasts, today was anything but --at least if you bought in to the notion that yesterday's sel...
Wed, Mar 19 2014, 12:23 PM
Bond markets began the day reasonably close to unchanged levels, but were soon moving into weaker territory . Part of the move can be attributed to ...
Wed, Mar 19 2014, 11:02 AM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December indicates that ______________ (economic activity) / (POTUS consternati...
Wed, Mar 19 2014, 8:00 AM
Today would normally be a good test for market motivations. We have been able to plainly see that Ukraine-related headlines can directly affect dome...
Wed, Mar 19 2014, 4:59 PM
As expected, today's FOMC Announcement was every bit the snoozer it should have been. We knew qualitative guidance was likely to replace the unempl...
Wed, Mar 19 2014, 2:06 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in
January indicates that growth in economic activity slowed during the
winter mo...
Tue, Mar 18 2014, 12:14 PM
Overnight market movement was once again most visibly affected by headlines relating to the situation in Ukraine. This time around it was a speech ...
Tue, Mar 18 2014, 8:00 AM
Day 2 of post-referendum Ukraine may well look a lot like day one. What some feared would become an actual war, instead may simply fade from importan...
Tue, Mar 18 2014, 4:05 PM
After weakness pervaded the past two sessions, bond markets have managed to find their footing before giving back any more of last Thursday's Ukraine-...
Mon, Mar 17 2014, 12:10 PM
Bond markets had moved into a defensive position on Friday in order to account for geopolitical fallout after Sunday's referendum in Crimea. After th...
Mon, Mar 17 2014, 8:00 AM
Last week's calendar of events were little match for the headlines coming out regarding the situation in Ukraine. Markets were in full " herd mode ,"...
Mon, Mar 17 2014, 4:15 PM
Last week saw a reigniting of geopolitical risk on Thursday after headlines suggested the Crimean referendum as a potential powder keg over the week...
Fri, Mar 14 2014, 12:20 PM
The morning has seen rapid swings between highs and lows for stocks, bonds, MBS, and just about everything else. As expected, the logical impact fr...
Fri, Mar 14 2014, 8:00 AM
There's some inherent moral conflict in being a fan of lower mortgage rates. No sane person wishes for the sort of strife surrounding the Russia/Uk...
Fri, Mar 14 2014, 4:33 PM
Bond markets started the day in fairly decent shape, not much changed following yesterday's substantial Ukraine-inspired improvement. Domestic econom...
Thu, Mar 13 2014, 12:29 PM
Until 11:11am, the day may well have been about the fairly tepid reaction to stronger economic data. Treasuries had traded a super narrow range overn...
Thu, Mar 13 2014, 8:00 AM
Bond markets had a great day on Wednesday and were able to rally both before and after the 10yr Note Auction. The question is: does this reveal som...
Thu, Mar 13 2014, 4:26 PM
Very little was happening before 11:11am today. Overnight markets were calm and sideways. Treasuries and MBS began the day in unchanged territory. ...
Wed, Mar 12 2014, 11:49 AM
The overnight session was moderately strong for Treasuries, helped along by slumping stocks in Asia and rallying bond markets in Europe. We have seen...
Wed, Mar 12 2014, 8:00 AM
Until something new and different happens today to inspire some volatility in bond markets, yesterday continues to be the most interesting event. The...
Wed, Mar 12 2014, 4:25 PM
Today was a good day for both MBS and Treasuries. Not only that, but it was good right from the start (courtesy of a positive overnight session) an...
Tue, Mar 11 2014, 12:07 PM
The day began with bond markets moving relentlessly sideways, and against the backdrop of Friday's post-NFP move, they still are. In other words, MBS...
Tue, Mar 11 2014, 8:00 AM
Considering the lack of actionable news and events during the first half of the week, bond market participants can either turn their attention to wha...
Tue, Mar 11 2014, 3:41 PM
Today is one of those days where Treasury movements definitely do not tell the story for MBS. Today's Senate headlines on the upcoming Fannie/Freddie...
Mon, Mar 10 2014, 11:55 AM
Domestic market movers have been in limited supply so far today. Bond markets have paid some attention to tradeflows surrounding big corporate deals...
Mon, Mar 10 2014, 8:00 AM
After moving through the worst week of losses since mid-August, bond markets are left to consider whether it's time fully abandon February's weather...
Mon, Mar 10 2014, 4:45 PM
As far as Mondays after NFP Fridays go, today could have been worse. On occasion, these Mondays can serve to perpetuate a new trend set in motion aft...
Fri, Mar 7 2014, 12:49 PM
Not only was this morning's employment data stronger than expected, but it would probably have been even stronger if not for the weather effect. As ...
Fri, Mar 7 2014, 7:45 AM
The boring scenario for today would be for the all-important Employment Situation Report to show payroll creation lagging recent averages, coming in a...
Fri, Mar 7 2014, 4:26 PM
8:30-8:32... These were the only two minutes of the day where anything interesting was happening for bond markets. It wasn't the good kind of 'int...
Thu, Mar 6 2014, 11:57 AM
MBS are now at the best levels since before this morning's economic data. Before that, Treasuries were slightly weaker overnight, resulting in open...
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