Mon, Oct 21 2013, 5:08 PM
Today's session could as easily not have happened, and it wouldn't
change anything about the bigger picture. The same could be true for
most any ...
Fri, Oct 18 2013, 12:46 PM
Yesterday's rally was strong. Today, not so much. That's OK
because if we were to extend the rally (2 day rally, really, totaling
over a point o...
Fri, Oct 18 2013, 7:22 AM
Clues provided by early overnight bullishness in bond markets were
accurate in that both Treasuries and MBS returned to the ranges that had
recent...
Fri, Oct 18 2013, 4:50 PM
When the potential government shutdown became an increasing reality
into late September, bond markets entered in to a narrow, sideways
range. Whe...
Thu, Oct 17 2013, 12:32 AM
Congress apparently thought the 10/17 debt ceiling deadline was a
much bigger deal than financial markets. It's not that markets didn't
perceive ...
Thu, Oct 17 2013, 11:59 AM
After adding half a point yesterday, Fannie 3.5 MBS are up another half
point today (Fannie 3.5s as of 11:55am) as the ill effects of the
governme...
Thu, Oct 17 2013, 6:39 PM
Surprisingly enough, after the government shutdown, both Treasuries
and MBS are back to levels they were trading at- well--before the
shutdown. T...
Wed, Oct 16 2013, 7:14 AM
When was the last time there was any meaningful level of interest in the Fed's Beige Book ?
Some economic releases, if you're not waiting for the ...
Wed, Oct 16 2013, 4:37 PM
Somehow, the same debt deal (or similar anyway) that caused
problems for bond markets yesterday, ended up being the leading suspect
behind a solid...
Wed, Oct 16 2013, 1:21 PM
Treasuries and MBS have had varying reactions, at times, to fiscal
headlines. In one moment, bond markets may have weakened in response to
the pr...
Tue, Oct 15 2013, 12:25 PM
Bond markets began the day preemptively weakened by headlines out on Monday suggesting the Senate was working on a deal
that would fund the governme...
Tue, Oct 15 2013, 7:17 AM
The week begins largely where the previous week left off: with bond markets seemingly scared
of any sort of debt-ceiling resolution. The move low...
Tue, Oct 15 2013, 5:07 PM
Bond markets began pouting even before they were open, according to
movement in Treasury futures during yesterday's bond market closure.
The nega...
Fri, Oct 11 2013, 7:37 AM
Well... The bulk of the prose-based commentary was just accidentally
divulged in the bullet points above. There's not much more to it
really. We...
Fri, Oct 11 2013, 6:34 PM
Bond markets came into the session on a stronger note. They looked
intent on bouncing back from yesterday's somewhat troubling weakness.
Everyth...
Fri, Oct 11 2013, 1:16 PM
Please note that the pricing snapshot below is from earlier in the morning before
we got hit with mid-day weakness. Before that, bond markets came ...
Thu, Oct 10 2013, 12:58 PM
MBS Live : MBS Morning Market Summary
++INSERT COMMENTARY HERE++
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note...
Thu, Oct 10 2013, 4:28 PM
Though somewhat of a hollow victory, bond markets improved after
today's strong 30yr bond auction. It was hollow in the sense that the
gains mere...
Thu, Oct 10 2013, 1:21 AM
Markets have clearly begun pricing in various levels of default risk
for the US. Sounds scary, but it's not the first time and it won't be
the la...
Wed, Oct 9 2013, 12:36 PM
Part of the explanation for today's movement lies in yesterday's
events. Notably, we saw the biggest spike yet in 1-month Treasury
Bills. This i...
Wed, Oct 9 2013, 6:51 AM
These are not normal times. While this could have been said at many
points since the onset of the financial crisis, they're perhaps even
more abn...
Wed, Oct 9 2013, 4:32 PM
Bond markets began the day in roughly the same territory they
occupied at the end of yesterday. MBS prices had an artificial deficit
due to the r...
Tue, Oct 8 2013, 12:37 PM
Referring to today's movements in MBS with the word "volatility" may
be a bit generous considering we haven't even traversed half of
yesterday's r...
Tue, Oct 8 2013, 6:52 AM
With the government shutdown ongoing, there continues to be a severe restriction
on relevant economic data. Unfortunately, "relevant economic dat...
Tue, Oct 8 2013, 4:48 PM
Bond markets put on a clinic today, demonstrating just how intent they
are on doing absolutely nothing. It may not have seemed like much of a
fea...
Mon, Oct 7 2013, 7:44 AM
Uncertainty and paralysis were the themes that pervaded last week.
Those are likely to continue for bond markets as long as the shutdown
persists...
Mon, Oct 7 2013, 5:32 PM
There are several different iterations of "Shutdown Limbo," they're
all essentially the same dance at the end of the day, especially this
one! Re...
Mon, Oct 7 2013, 1:55 PM
The week has begun in the same sideways fashion that dominated the
entirety of last week. 10yr yields continue to orbit around 2.615,
moving more...
Fri, Oct 4 2013, 7:53 AM
Yesterday was very telling in 2 important ways. First of all, it
confirmed that no one knows what the heck they're going to do until they
get the...
Fri, Oct 4 2013, 5:06 PM
If we take every price from every minute of MBS trading so far in
October, the average Fannie 3.5 price is 101-26, precisely where it's
coasting o...
Fri, Oct 4 2013, 1:14 PM
Sometimes there are a lot of headlines and events to discuss, but
this isn't one of those times. There's nothing new or meaningful to add
beyond ...
Thu, Oct 3 2013, 12:01 PM
ISM's Non-Manufacturing Index has always been a relevant market
mover, but especially so during in recent months. Today's rivals
yesterday's ADP ...
Thu, Oct 3 2013, 8:20 AM
At least a few pundits yesterday said directly or alluded to the
notion--in not so many words--that the Fed didn't matter as much this
week becaus...
Thu, Oct 3 2013, 4:52 PM
Of all the times that a government shutdown could take the monthly
jobs report offline, this week may have been one of most challenging to
deal wi...
Wed, Oct 2 2013, 12:18 PM
Bond markets traded reasonably well overnight, improving at first, but
giving up ground as the domestic session got underway. By 8am, MBS and
Tre...
Wed, Oct 2 2013, 4:50 PM
Bond markets began the day relatively close to Tuesday's latest
levels and were soon in rally mode owing to the weaker-than-expected ADP
Employmen...
Wed, Oct 2 2013, 1:37 AM
Weeks that contain the Employment Situation Report (NFP) are
supposed to be all about NFP. Yet here we are in the midst of a
government shutdow...
Tue, Oct 1 2013, 11:59 AM
MBS Live : MBS Morning Market Summary
++INSERT COMMENTARY HERE++
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note...
Tue, Oct 1 2013, 7:01 AM
The day is young, but at midnight eastern, we have no Shutdown
resolution and the Senate is ostensibly out until 930am ET. Overnight
markets gree...
Tue, Oct 1 2013, 4:39 PM
Bond markets were ready to take short term guidance from the
"government shutdown" resolution or lack thereof. This has been far
from a primary m...
Mon, Sep 30 2013, 12:24 PM
Bond markets started the day in slightly stronger territory though
remained in line with Friday's latest levels. Overnight events were
supportive...
Mon, Sep 30 2013, 7:17 AM
A lot about how the week shapes up depends on what happens by
midnight tonight with respect to the 'government shutdown.' The
government agency r...
Mon, Sep 30 2013, 4:50 PM
In the context of the nearly month-long rally in place since Sep
6th, today's MBS movements were more volatile than average. Fannie
3.5s started...
Fri, Sep 27 2013, 12:34 PM
MBS began the day in an unassuming stance. Treasuries had just
rallied sharply in the overnight session with 10's moving from 2.67 to
under 2.63,...
Fri, Sep 27 2013, 8:29 AM
Last week's FOMC statement and all that's followed have acted the part of Occam's Razor
in reducing the ifs and thens of bond market movement to p...
Fri, Sep 27 2013, 5:36 PM
The trading day is essentially over and MBS are heading out 3 ticks
higher than the levels reported in the last alert. This is enough to
obviate ...
Thu, Sep 26 2013, 12:56 PM
MBS opened just a tick under yesterday's latest levels and have
mostly moved weaker from there. Treasuries similarly started the day
just above y...
Thu, Sep 26 2013, 8:00 AM
In a similar vein to yesterday's outlook, we're still on guard against
any potential jolts from stronger data. Anything else, however, is
friendl...
Thu, Sep 26 2013, 5:10 PM
Bond markets were slightly weaker heading into today's session and
extended the weakness by very small steps after the day's meaningful
events. T...
Wed, Sep 25 2013, 12:23 PM
Bond markets came into the domestic session in slightly weaker
territory, carrying some negative momentum from European hours. Volumes
were low, ...
MBS Market Alerts
