Tue, Nov 26 2013, 4:08 PM
Bond markets were once again in "Holiday stance" as the economic data
had precious little effect on Treasuries and less still on MBS. The
trend o...
Mon, Nov 25 2013, 11:45 AM
It's been a plodding and uninspiring process, but Fannie 3.5 MBS
are now at prices seen just BEFORE last week's FOMC Minutes (101-10).
They'd qui...
Mon, Nov 25 2013, 4:15 PM
Today serves as a good example of Treasuries and MBS moving in opposite directions.
It's not that they weren't almost always moving in the same dir...
Mon, Nov 25 2013, 4:04 AM
We enter this holiday-shortened week with bond markets having done an
admirable job of consolidating and correcting after the losses inspired
by l...
Fri, Nov 22 2013, 12:22 PM
Today was destined to to be light on market moving guidance and
consequently on participation (to whatever extent anything is destined
to happen i...
Fri, Nov 22 2013, 6:44 AM
There are a lot of individual events worth mentioning from
yesterday's session--slightly stronger Jobless Claims, much weaker
Philly Fed, FOMC spe...
Fri, Nov 22 2013, 4:51 PM
Superficially, today looks like a good one for MBS markets with
Fannie 3.5s up a quarter of a point heading into the close. But the
"yeah buts" a...
Thu, Nov 21 2013, 12:19 PM
At the risk of being too dramatic, bond markets were spiraling out of
control to some extent, heading into this morning's Philly Fed data.
That f...
Thu, Nov 21 2013, 4:40 PM
Today's session managed to be fairly interesting and refreshingly calm
at the same time. The first two hours of the day were arguably less
calm a...
Thu, Nov 21 2013, 3:02 AM
Today's economic data, taken together, is in the same league as
yesterday's Retail Sales, and with the absence of FOMC Minutes looming
in the afte...
Wed, Nov 20 2013, 12:02 PM
The morning has been relatively action-packed so far, both with
scheduled and unscheduled market movers. Among the overt, scheduled
consideration...
Wed, Nov 20 2013, 8:16 AM
With the brief exception of Bernanke's speech at the start of the
overnight session, yesterday's weakness was pervasive, moderate, and
mechanical ...
Wed, Nov 20 2013, 5:20 PM
Bond markets are at their weakest levels since just before September's
FOMC "no taper" announcement after today's FOMC "really actually fairly
int...
Wed, Nov 20 2013, 3:15 PM
Back in May and June, the Fed was either clearly finding a sense of
urgency about managing the pace of asset purchases or they clearly
wanted us t...
Tue, Nov 19 2013, 12:29 PM
Bond markets were nearly unchanged overnight, but leaked
incidentally weaker into domestic hours. Some of the MBS-specific
weakness owes itself t...
Tue, Nov 19 2013, 4:29 PM
Bond market weakness was the theme of the day, and it was
pervasive--even if relatively mild--right from the start of the
overnight session. Germ...
Tue, Nov 19 2013, 2:39 AM
Monday offered a surprisingly bullish session for bond markets with
MBS just 2 ticks shy of gaining half a point on the day. 10yr yields
dropped ...
Mon, Nov 18 2013, 11:48 AM
Overnight trading was fairly uneventful with Treasuries holding a narrow
range. They ultimately hit the domestic session in unchanged
territory. ...
Mon, Nov 18 2013, 7:53 AM
2.688, 2.684, and 2.691. These were the 3 10yr yield lows from Wednesday, Thursday and Friday last week. They represent a thorn in the side
for ...
Mon, Nov 18 2013, 4:23 PM
Fed speakers will be an ongoing theme this week as market
participants refine their outlook for potential December policy
changes. While we heard...
Fri, Nov 15 2013, 12:26 AM
Bond markets beat the odds and have now successfully pushed back
against the losses seen after last week's strong jobs numbers. In order
to be de...
Fri, Nov 15 2013, 12:00 PM
Treasuries were modestly weaker overnight and yields made a linear move to highs from yesterday afternoon just after the open today.
The first data...
Fri, Nov 15 2013, 4:50 PM
Although bond markets began the day in weaker territory, that was
quickly changed by weak economic data. The Empire State Manufacturing
Index isn...
Thu, Nov 14 2013, 12:42 PM
Janet Yellen just wrapped up the Q&A portion of her confirmation
hearing with the Senate Banking committee. It would have been shorter,
but most ...
Thu, Nov 14 2013, 7:32 AM
Yesterday was quite an interesting day for bond markets and one that
goes a long way toward confirming hope that prices could hold their
ground at...
Thu, Nov 14 2013, 5:01 PM
MBS Live : MBS Afternoon Market Summary
++INSERT COMMENTARY HERE++
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please no...
Wed, Nov 13 2013, 12:27 PM
Even with Treasury auctions coming up at 1pm today and tomorrow,
bond markets are already pushing back against yesterday's weakness.
This is happ...
Wed, Nov 13 2013, 8:10 AM
What are we to make of yesterday? Here we were, ready for more pain
after the strong jobs report and nearly two full weeks of preceding
pain. Bu...
Wed, Nov 13 2013, 5:09 PM
Janet Yellen's prepared remarks for tomorrow's confirmation hearing
were released at 4:30pm today. While there was little reason to expect
a sign...
Tue, Nov 12 2013, 12:06 PM
Bond markets were weaker overnight. 10yr yields began the Asian
hours just under 2.77 and made one anemic move to 2.755 before failing
to break t...
Tue, Nov 12 2013, 7:50 AM
The past two weeks have done all kinds of "bad stuff" to bond
markets. Not only did interest rates return to the gates of the outer
gates of thei...
Tue, Nov 12 2013, 4:30 PM
Treasuries were able to hold sideways without going much higher than
2.78. While this isn't as threatening as the 2.79's, there was a
notable ave...
Fri, Nov 8 2013, 11:54 AM
Today's trading has turned out to be exceedingly straightforward.
Bonds approached in a neutral stance--right in the middle of their
2-month rang...
Fri, Nov 8 2013, 4:57 PM
Government Shutdowns come and go (and may come again), but our more
constant companion since May has been the ongoing trial of Fed Asset
purchases...
Fri, Nov 8 2013, 1:37 AM
These sorts of NFP days are few and far between. In fact, we may not
see a similar example for decades--maybe longer. That sounds exciting,
but ...
Thu, Nov 7 2013, 12:54 PM
The overnight session was uneventful until the ECB announced a
somewhat surprising rate cut at 7:45am New York time. Both stocks and
bonds benefi...
Thu, Nov 7 2013, 7:44 AM
Yesterday, we held out the possibility of something interesting
happening due to the Fed papers making rounds. Nothing interesting
happened. Tha...
Thu, Nov 7 2013, 4:28 PM
For all the data and events digested by bond markets today, trading
levels managed to stay fairly calm and to seek out the neutrality of
recent ra...
Wed, Nov 6 2013, 12:50 PM
Amid today's lack of significant bond-market-specific events,
Treasuries and MBS have erased a moderate amount of yesterday's
weakness. The Leadi...
Wed, Nov 6 2013, 7:29 AM
Sizing up the day, there's nothing special about it in terms of data
or events. As such, it will be especially telling if we happen to see a
big ...
Wed, Nov 6 2013, 4:46 PM
The title of todays' recap, "narrowest trading range in 6 months,"
is the only thing interesting about today. Even on the approach, there
was not...
Tue, Nov 5 2013, 12:45 PM
Today's ISM Non-Manufacturing data was the focal point of the first
three days of this week, and bond markets confirmed that well before it
was re...
Tue, Nov 5 2013, 7:22 AM
Like its sister report last week, today's ISM Non-Manufacturing data doesn't always move markets, but also like
its sister report, it can cause fa...
Tue, Nov 5 2013, 4:46 PM
While there's still a bit of time left on the clock, MBS look
fairly likely to close at levels that make today the worst day of losses
in exactly ...
Mon, Nov 4 2013, 12:23 PM
The story so far today is one of modest correction from last week's
losses. To recap that last 3 weeks, bond markets approached their best
recent...
Mon, Nov 4 2013, 7:04 AM
Only 2.5 weeks separates this week's Employment Situation Report one
from the last due to the government shutdown. The last jobs report
helped rat...
Mon, Nov 4 2013, 4:27 PM
Today was one of those characteristically "slow Mondays" in the way
only Mondays can be. It didn't help that Japan was out on Holiday (our
turn n...
Fri, Nov 1 2013, 12:46 PM
Two days, two ISM reports and both have done a good amount of
damage to bond markets. Yesterday's regional report from ISM Chicago
left trading l...
Fri, Nov 1 2013, 7:23 AM
ISM Manufacturing and non-manufacturing are two of the most widely followed economic reports
and are key players in the ensemble of non-employment...
Fri, Nov 1 2013, 4:51 PM
This week saw a tentative prodding of range boundaries--both long
term and short term--following last week's Employment Situation Report.
Wednesd...
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