Wed, Jan 15 2014, 5:02 PM
Back in September, the epic corporate bond offering by Verizon (more than double the previous record!) proved to be such a factor for broader bond m...
Tue, Jan 14 2014, 12:20 PM
Bond markets have given up most of yesterday's strength so far this morning, though that's more true for Treasuries than MBS. The morning has been su...
Tue, Jan 14 2014, 7:00 AM
There are clues in yesterday's session as to where our attention should be focused in the next two weeks. There may well be clues in this morning's...
Tue, Jan 14 2014, 4:27 PM
Whereas Friday's big move higher in MBS was all about one undisputed star of the show, and whereas today's Retail Sales report had an opportunity to...
Mon, Jan 13 2014, 12:14 PM
Bond markets have been trading calmly and slightly stronger. That said, the strength is more in line with "follow through" from Friday morning's mo...
Mon, Jan 13 2014, 6:48 AM
Things have been less than great for bond markets since May of 2013 when sentiment in the Fixed-Income sector seemed to turn on a dime. In reality, t...
Mon, Jan 13 2014, 4:57 PM
The past few weeks have marked the first time in a long time that we've had occasion to consider the proverbial "stock lever" (the phenomenon whereb...
Fri, Jan 10 2014, 12:50 PM
This morning's jobs report was stunningly weaker than expected, with NFP coming in at 74k vs a consensus forecast of 196k. As far as misses go, this ...
Fri, Jan 10 2014, 6:36 AM
This analysis isn't intended to extoll the virtues of ADP, but it's going to seem that way based on the objective facts offered. It's also meant to s...
Fri, Jan 10 2014, 4:36 PM
There is a disturbing lack of utter certainty when it comes to financial markets, and especially to the effect of economic data on MBS Prices. Case...
Thu, Jan 9 2014, 12:01 PM
The day began with modest improvements, helped along by tough talk from ECB President Draghi. While the timing of the best movement seems to coinci...
Thu, Jan 9 2014, 8:30 AM
It's a somewhat cynical point of view, but what is the Thursday before Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) if not a place-holder that can't ever come close to the ...
Thu, Jan 9 2014, 4:21 PM
As expected, today's trading wasn't willing or able to challenge recent rages in any meaningful way. In fact, it didn't even challenge yesterday's ra...
Wed, Jan 8 2014, 12:25 PM
As expected, this morning's ADP data marked the unofficial inception of 2014, bringing by-far the biggest dose of volume and movement this year. To...
Wed, Jan 8 2014, 7:00 AM
For all intents and purposes, today is the first day of 2014. While Monday's ISM Non-Manufacturing data is one of the more capable market movers , i...
Wed, Jan 8 2014, 4:27 PM
The afternoon turned out to be even less interesting than our already-discounted outlook suggested (see the Day ahead , particularly "That leaves the...
Tue, Jan 7 2014, 11:54 AM
On December 18th, Fannie 4.0 MBS were heading into the FOMC's 'tapering' Announcement at 103-12. They shed nearly 7/8ths of a point by the following ...
Tue, Jan 7 2014, 7:00 AM
Even during non-holiday weeks, Mondays tend to run a little light and yesterday was no exception. That said, it did manage the best volume of any s...
Tue, Jan 7 2014, 4:37 PM
Bond markets trudged farther into positive territory today, this time crossing into the best levels since December's FOMC Announcement for MBS and s...
Mon, Jan 6 2014, 12:08 PM
Bond markets were just slightly stronger overnight. Tradeflows in Treasuries haven't been infinitely more robust than Thursday or Friday, but they ar...
Mon, Jan 6 2014, 7:00 AM
After 2 weeks with exceptionally light activity due to holidays and inclement weather in New York, bond markets get back to business today. Not only ...
Mon, Jan 6 2014, 4:37 PM
In several ways, today is/was something of a warm up for the rest of the week. In fact, tomorrow could be similar in that the biggest events of the...
Fri, Jan 3 2014, 11:34 AM
As expected, we're seeing a lot of reports of thinly staffed trade desks in NY thanks to the snow storm. Almost all of the volume in Treasury futur...
Fri, Jan 3 2014, 4:20 PM
MBS began the day on a down note with prices off 5/32nds. In the absence of data (or anything at all, really), bond markets found their footing bet...
Fri, Jan 3 2014, 2:53 AM
If there is any reason for market participants to tune in today, it will be the late day speech from Bernanke. That's not happening until 2:30pm howe...
Thu, Jan 2 2014, 11:56 AM
We're once again seeing tradeflows overpower economic data in terms of bond market motivation. Most of this morning's data was stronger than expect...
Thu, Jan 2 2014, 7:00 AM
Today's calendar of economic events includes Jobless Claims, both of the manufacturing PMIs (Markit and ISM), and Construction Spending, making Thursd...
Thu, Jan 2 2014, 4:24 PM
Volume was surprisingly high today, relative to our exceptionally low expectations. Even so, it ranks as one of the lightest days of the year, and ...
Tue, Dec 31 2013, 12:25 PM
Once you accept the truths in yesterday morning's chart (re-posted below), the rest of 2013 doesn't really matter. To recap:
June 19 was the ...
Tue, Dec 31 2013, 7:00 AM
2013 draws to a close today and it will officially break a 20 year trend in bond markets. Since 1993, 10yr yields have returned to the same boundar...
Tue, Dec 31 2013, 3:53 PM
On many occasions in 2013, I've referred to weakness as "seemingly inexplicable." This rarely has to do with the weakness defying explanation and mor...
Mon, Dec 30 2013, 11:25 AM
So far today, we have a moderate amount of incidental strength to offset the slightly larger amount of incidental weakness last week. Bond markets co...
Mon, Dec 30 2013, 9:00 AM
Last
week was brutally slow, punctuated by an early close on Tuesday, the
Christmas holiday on Wednesday and a general absence of volume and
vol...
Mon, Dec 30 2013, 4:49 PM
Although nothing too troubling happened today, it's hard to find anything glaringly positive. For instance, even though we have some decent gains o...
Fri, Dec 27 2013, 11:43 AM
First off, any examination of price movement today requires the caveat that none of it has any implication beyond the next few hours. While volume is...
Fri, Dec 27 2013, 8:28 AM
There's been such an appallingly small amount of trading activity this week that it doesn't make much sense to discuss or consider market movements ...
Fri, Dec 27 2013, 6:05 PM
NOTE : Some readers may have received a glut of
previous MBS Commentary updates from 3:10 - 3:55pm. We're very sorry
for the inconvenience. It s...
Thu, Dec 26 2013, 12:32 PM
MBS continue to bounce along at the same prices that characterized the tight range seen during the last 2-3 hours of Tuesday's session. Fannie 4.0s...
Thu, Dec 26 2013, 8:31 AM
In the absence of some sort of watershed event, the only real reason for bond market participants to pay even a small amount of attention between Chri...
Thu, Dec 26 2013, 4:52 PM
Fannie 4.0s spent most of the morning just barely in negative
territory and most of the afternoon in the green. All of the above was
contained in...
Tue, Dec 24 2013, 12:20 PM
Tue, Dec 24 2013, 8:29 AM
To at least the same extent as yesterday, today's session calls for
auto-pilot in terms of market-watching. It's not that today's data
isn't nece...
Tue, Dec 24 2013, 2:59 PM
Excruciatingly low holiday volumes magnified the existing downtrend today, bringing MBS prices back to the lower-middle of their downwardly-sloped tra...
Mon, Dec 23 2013, 12:48 PM
The overnight session was tame for Treasuries, ultimately resulting in opening levels just slightly weaker
than Friday's latest. That said, both ...
Mon, Dec 23 2013, 7:07 AM
Of all the holiday weeks of any given year, this one has the biggest
effect on market participation. Trading activity will almost certainly
be ex...
Mon, Dec 23 2013, 5:16 PM
MBS stayed inside the micro-range established on Friday afternoon for the entire session . The holiday-inspired quietness was evident from the overn...
Fri, Dec 20 2013, 5:24 PM
The lion's share of today's recap is available in the 3:18pm update
below. Nothing about the day's theme changed from then on. In short,
MBS wer...
Fri, Dec 20 2013, 3:53 AM
Here is a fact about the last 48 hours: on the day of and the day after
the Fed finally announced tapering, the most relevant MBS coupon for
c...
Fri, Dec 20 2013, 1:19 PM
GDP was stronger than expected this morning, yet bond markets are
in stronger territory. Volume in MBS is light, but they're just
following Treas...
Thu, Dec 19 2013, 12:55 PM
Check out the chart below for some rationale as to why this morning's
very very high Jobless Claims number failed to help MBS and Treasuries
gain ...
MBS Market Alerts
