Thu, Jan 2 2014, 4:24 PM
Volume was surprisingly high today, relative to our exceptionally low expectations. Even so, it ranks as one of the lightest days of the year, and ...
Tue, Dec 31 2013, 12:25 PM
Once you accept the truths in yesterday morning's chart (re-posted below), the rest of 2013 doesn't really matter. To recap:
June 19 was the ...
Tue, Dec 31 2013, 7:00 AM
2013 draws to a close today and it will officially break a 20 year trend in bond markets. Since 1993, 10yr yields have returned to the same boundar...
Tue, Dec 31 2013, 3:53 PM
On many occasions in 2013, I've referred to weakness as "seemingly inexplicable." This rarely has to do with the weakness defying explanation and mor...
Mon, Dec 30 2013, 11:25 AM
So far today, we have a moderate amount of incidental strength to offset the slightly larger amount of incidental weakness last week. Bond markets co...
Mon, Dec 30 2013, 9:00 AM
Last
week was brutally slow, punctuated by an early close on Tuesday, the
Christmas holiday on Wednesday and a general absence of volume and
vol...
Mon, Dec 30 2013, 4:49 PM
Although nothing too troubling happened today, it's hard to find anything glaringly positive. For instance, even though we have some decent gains o...
Fri, Dec 27 2013, 11:43 AM
First off, any examination of price movement today requires the caveat that none of it has any implication beyond the next few hours. While volume is...
Fri, Dec 27 2013, 8:28 AM
There's been such an appallingly small amount of trading activity this week that it doesn't make much sense to discuss or consider market movements ...
Fri, Dec 27 2013, 6:05 PM
NOTE : Some readers may have received a glut of
previous MBS Commentary updates from 3:10 - 3:55pm. We're very sorry
for the inconvenience. It s...
Thu, Dec 26 2013, 12:32 PM
MBS continue to bounce along at the same prices that characterized the tight range seen during the last 2-3 hours of Tuesday's session. Fannie 4.0s...
Thu, Dec 26 2013, 8:31 AM
In the absence of some sort of watershed event, the only real reason for bond market participants to pay even a small amount of attention between Chri...
Thu, Dec 26 2013, 4:52 PM
Fannie 4.0s spent most of the morning just barely in negative
territory and most of the afternoon in the green. All of the above was
contained in...
Tue, Dec 24 2013, 12:20 PM
Tue, Dec 24 2013, 8:29 AM
To at least the same extent as yesterday, today's session calls for
auto-pilot in terms of market-watching. It's not that today's data
isn't nece...
Tue, Dec 24 2013, 2:59 PM
Excruciatingly low holiday volumes magnified the existing downtrend today, bringing MBS prices back to the lower-middle of their downwardly-sloped tra...
Mon, Dec 23 2013, 12:48 PM
The overnight session was tame for Treasuries, ultimately resulting in opening levels just slightly weaker
than Friday's latest. That said, both ...
Mon, Dec 23 2013, 7:07 AM
Of all the holiday weeks of any given year, this one has the biggest
effect on market participation. Trading activity will almost certainly
be ex...
Mon, Dec 23 2013, 5:16 PM
MBS stayed inside the micro-range established on Friday afternoon for the entire session . The holiday-inspired quietness was evident from the overn...
Fri, Dec 20 2013, 5:24 PM
The lion's share of today's recap is available in the 3:18pm update
below. Nothing about the day's theme changed from then on. In short,
MBS wer...
Fri, Dec 20 2013, 3:53 AM
Here is a fact about the last 48 hours: on the day of and the day after
the Fed finally announced tapering, the most relevant MBS coupon for
c...
Fri, Dec 20 2013, 1:19 PM
GDP was stronger than expected this morning, yet bond markets are
in stronger territory. Volume in MBS is light, but they're just
following Treas...
Thu, Dec 19 2013, 12:55 PM
Check out the chart below for some rationale as to why this morning's
very very high Jobless Claims number failed to help MBS and Treasuries
gain ...
Thu, Dec 19 2013, 8:43 PM
Bond markets began the day by extending yesterday's late weakness in somewhat of a panicky fashion. By tapering only
by a small amount and by pro...
Thu, Dec 19 2013, 4:22 AM
The Fed tapered yesterday, and bond markets didn't freak out as
much as they might have. Immediately following the announcement, bond
markets wen...
Wed, Dec 18 2013, 12:17 PM
While the most attention-grabbing headline of the morning so far has concerned the largest jump in Housing Starts since 1990,
the sharpest movem...
Wed, Dec 18 2013, 9:36 AM
The FOMC Statement due out at 2pm will continue in the Fed's fine
tradition of keeping most of the text unchanged and merely updating key
sections...
Wed, Dec 18 2013, 8:50 PM
After almost exactly half a year of discussing the mythical
"Tapering" as a possible outcome of an FOMC Announcement (there were
some grumblings a...
Wed, Dec 18 2013, 7:56 AM
Let's skip to the important stuff about today. While there will be a
backlog of three months of Housing Starts data released in the morning,
as w...
Wed, Dec 18 2013, 2:05 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September generally suggestsOctober indicates that economic activity has continued...
Tue, Dec 17 2013, 11:45 AM
Seeing as how today is yet another mid-December day that doesn't
contain the long-awaited FOMC Announcement, it's proving to be just
another incon...
Tue, Dec 17 2013, 6:59 AM
The Week Ahead spells out the theme of the week and recaps the market exhaustion leading
up to it. Those themes remain in force until tomorrow's...
Tue, Dec 17 2013, 5:32 PM
It's never fun to be wrapping up our assessment of one major economic event with the conclusion that nothing really matters
until the next one. I...
Mon, Dec 16 2013, 11:56 AM
More than any other day so far in December, today is chock full of that special holiday spirit
that makes for almost inconsequentially light activ...
Mon, Dec 16 2013, 7:24 AM
Exhaustion was evident in last week's bond market trading. We discussed that " year-end exhaustion " quite a bit in this post .
To make a long st...
Mon, Dec 16 2013, 5:13 PM
MBS are heading out right in line with Friday's latest levels. The day began well, and bond markets even made gains
following the stronger-than-e...
Fri, Dec 13 2013, 12:43 PM
"Exhaustion" was the theme of this morning's commentary , and today's price action is confirming that .
One of the byproducts of exhaustion is a ...
Fri, Dec 13 2013, 7:16 AM
It's been a rather exhausting year for bond markets. Unlike the past
3 years, 2013 marks a substantial dose of selling. Not only that, but
the s...
Fri, Dec 13 2013, 4:47 PM
One of the bullet points in this morning's commentary said "bond markets
would rather be napping." As it turns out, they made that dream a
realit...
Thu, Dec 12 2013, 12:36 PM
The Jobless Claims is one of the cornerstones of the economic data
environment. It prints every week, same time, dame day. It's
relatively easy ...
Thu, Dec 12 2013, 4:39 PM
Bond markets moved back and forth within fairly narrow ranges
today, although most of that sideways movement took place at weaker
levels. This wa...
Thu, Dec 12 2013, 2:54 AM
In general, Treasury auctions haven't elicited as much reaction on
the part of MBS as they did back in 2008-2010 when markets were still
feeling o...
Wed, Dec 11 2013, 12:53 PM
Treasuries were only moderately weaker overnight despite the
potential for a "QE off" move after yesterday's budget deal
announcement ("QE off" c...
Wed, Dec 11 2013, 7:40 AM
The big news for mortgage markets out last night is the confirmation
of Mel Watt to take over for Demarco as FHFA Director (technically, Watt
will...
Wed, Dec 11 2013, 5:32 PM
After bond markets showed a surprising amount of strength following NFP,
we'd discussed to possibility of a more developed bounce back lasting
any...
Tue, Dec 10 2013, 12:11 PM
Times are strange in early December. First off, we have bond
markets generally stronger despite Friday's better-than-expected NFP.
While we've b...
Tue, Dec 10 2013, 7:17 AM
After yesterday's lackluster, if positive, session, today holds the
promise of slightly more participation. Not only are Tuesdays generally
a bet...
Tue, Dec 10 2013, 4:21 PM
Both Treasuries and MBS continued the trend of post-NFP
improvements today, paradoxical though they may be. The only apparent
threat to the posti...
Mon, Dec 9 2013, 11:51 AM
Bond markets have been utterly silent so far today with stable, narrow trading ranges, no significant events, and limited volume.
Treasuries held a...
Mon, Dec 9 2013, 7:12 AM
Last week was certainly interesting due to Friday's post-NFP movement
in MBS. After the stronger headline came out (203k payrolls vs 180k
forecas...
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