Mon, Dec 9 2013, 4:55 PM
Monday got off to an uneventful start as overnight markets were
exceptionally calm. MBS opened flat and added a few ticks in the
morning hours. ...
Fri, Dec 6 2013, 12:38 PM
We've been discussing the past few days in the context of the Gorilla Analogy . If you did catch this morning's commentary, it's even more timely ( ...
Fri, Dec 6 2013, 4:37 PM
"So long MBS and thanks for putting up with all the abuse!" That
might be a caption for today's Employment report. In a way, it's like a
consola...
Fri, Dec 6 2013, 1:08 AM
If you missed it by any chance, yesterday's Gorilla analysis
is worth a read. Yesterday's activity is well-explained in the context
of that an...
Thu, Dec 5 2013, 12:33 PM
Production MBS are only 3 ticks down on the day at the moment, which
belies the volatility seen so far. Some of that is evident in the
pricing sn...
Thu, Dec 5 2013, 5:10 PM
When this morning's economic data came out, stronger-than-expected
Jobless Claims and GDP combined to cause brisk selling at first. By the
end of...
Thu, Dec 5 2013, 1:18 AM
NFP (nonfarm payrolls, the chief component of Friday's Employment
Situation Report) is the most important piece of economic data on any
given mont...
Wed, Dec 4 2013, 12:27 PM
The ADP Employment Report, as expected, was the biggest factor in
bond market movement this morning. After the numbers hit at 8:15,
volume popped...
Wed, Dec 4 2013, 7:30 AM
MBS are having a bad few weeks since FOMC Minutes reignited a PORTION
of tapering possibilities in December. We say "portion" because it's
not ...
Wed, Dec 4 2013, 4:24 PM
Bond markets were treated to a surprise guest this afternoon as
"MBS outperformance" returned after being absent for nearly a month. In
other wo...
Tue, Dec 3 2013, 12:45 PM
If this isn't the first time, then it's one of a precious few where
we've deigned to mention Detroit's bankruptcy saga, but there's a
chance that ...
Tue, Dec 3 2013, 7:36 AM
As Friday's jobs report approaches, we're left to ponder how much
weakness we might see in MBS and Treasuries without actually getting the
strong ...
Tue, Dec 3 2013, 4:30 PM
MBS and Treasuries diverged again today. This road more-traveled
for MBS has several sources of justification and explanation, but it's
really th...
Mon, Dec 2 2013, 11:49 AM
Treasuries drifted only moderately weaker as the first December
trading kicked off in Asian markets. 10yr yields rose to 2.76
initially, but move...
Mon, Dec 2 2013, 7:55 AM
After last week's Thanksgiving holiday and bond market closures cast
some doubt as to whether or not we should put much stock in MBS
weakness, thi...
Mon, Dec 2 2013, 4:13 PM
Bond markets got off to a rough start in December. After moving
modestly higher in Japan and more convincingly higher in Europe,
interest rates o...
Fri, Nov 29 2013, 12:03 PM
MBS Live : MBS Morning Market Summary
++INSERT COMMENTARY HERE++
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note...
Fri, Nov 29 2013, 1:26 AM
It's not at all likely that today's half-day will be able to do anything
to inform Wednesday's weak session for better or worse. Any strength
can...
Wed, Nov 27 2013, 12:14 PM
In homage to 2012, we have a fairly substantial Thanksgiving
sell-off on our hands. For what it's worth, the substantial
Thanksgiving sell-off of...
Wed, Nov 27 2013, 4:27 PM
Today offers a very interesting set of circumstances to consider
for MBS and mortgage rates. First, we can safely assume that rate
sheets have be...
Tue, Nov 26 2013, 11:38 AM
To be perfectly fair to Consumer Confidence, it certainly did not
cause any significant market movement this morning, despite its
potential to do ...
Tue, Nov 26 2013, 8:53 PM
Despite the term "extended weekend" being thrown around a bit, bond
markets are open for a half day on Friday. While that technically makes
it th...
Tue, Nov 26 2013, 5:17 AM
Here on November 26th, it might seem like the government shutdown
that ended in mid-October is far enough in the rearview that we wouldn't
still b...
Tue, Nov 26 2013, 4:08 PM
Bond markets were once again in "Holiday stance" as the economic data
had precious little effect on Treasuries and less still on MBS. The
trend o...
Mon, Nov 25 2013, 11:45 AM
It's been a plodding and uninspiring process, but Fannie 3.5 MBS
are now at prices seen just BEFORE last week's FOMC Minutes (101-10).
They'd qui...
Mon, Nov 25 2013, 4:15 PM
Today serves as a good example of Treasuries and MBS moving in opposite directions.
It's not that they weren't almost always moving in the same dir...
Mon, Nov 25 2013, 4:04 AM
We enter this holiday-shortened week with bond markets having done an
admirable job of consolidating and correcting after the losses inspired
by l...
Fri, Nov 22 2013, 12:22 PM
Today was destined to to be light on market moving guidance and
consequently on participation (to whatever extent anything is destined
to happen i...
Fri, Nov 22 2013, 6:44 AM
There are a lot of individual events worth mentioning from
yesterday's session--slightly stronger Jobless Claims, much weaker
Philly Fed, FOMC spe...
Fri, Nov 22 2013, 4:51 PM
Superficially, today looks like a good one for MBS markets with
Fannie 3.5s up a quarter of a point heading into the close. But the
"yeah buts" a...
Thu, Nov 21 2013, 12:19 PM
At the risk of being too dramatic, bond markets were spiraling out of
control to some extent, heading into this morning's Philly Fed data.
That f...
Thu, Nov 21 2013, 4:40 PM
Today's session managed to be fairly interesting and refreshingly calm
at the same time. The first two hours of the day were arguably less
calm a...
Thu, Nov 21 2013, 3:02 AM
Today's economic data, taken together, is in the same league as
yesterday's Retail Sales, and with the absence of FOMC Minutes looming
in the afte...
Wed, Nov 20 2013, 12:02 PM
The morning has been relatively action-packed so far, both with
scheduled and unscheduled market movers. Among the overt, scheduled
consideration...
Wed, Nov 20 2013, 8:16 AM
With the brief exception of Bernanke's speech at the start of the
overnight session, yesterday's weakness was pervasive, moderate, and
mechanical ...
Wed, Nov 20 2013, 5:20 PM
Bond markets are at their weakest levels since just before September's
FOMC "no taper" announcement after today's FOMC "really actually fairly
int...
Wed, Nov 20 2013, 3:15 PM
Back in May and June, the Fed was either clearly finding a sense of
urgency about managing the pace of asset purchases or they clearly
wanted us t...
Tue, Nov 19 2013, 12:29 PM
Bond markets were nearly unchanged overnight, but leaked
incidentally weaker into domestic hours. Some of the MBS-specific
weakness owes itself t...
Tue, Nov 19 2013, 4:29 PM
Bond market weakness was the theme of the day, and it was
pervasive--even if relatively mild--right from the start of the
overnight session. Germ...
Tue, Nov 19 2013, 2:39 AM
Monday offered a surprisingly bullish session for bond markets with
MBS just 2 ticks shy of gaining half a point on the day. 10yr yields
dropped ...
Mon, Nov 18 2013, 11:48 AM
Overnight trading was fairly uneventful with Treasuries holding a narrow
range. They ultimately hit the domestic session in unchanged
territory. ...
Mon, Nov 18 2013, 7:53 AM
2.688, 2.684, and 2.691. These were the 3 10yr yield lows from Wednesday, Thursday and Friday last week. They represent a thorn in the side
for ...
Mon, Nov 18 2013, 4:23 PM
Fed speakers will be an ongoing theme this week as market
participants refine their outlook for potential December policy
changes. While we heard...
Fri, Nov 15 2013, 12:26 AM
Bond markets beat the odds and have now successfully pushed back
against the losses seen after last week's strong jobs numbers. In order
to be de...
Fri, Nov 15 2013, 12:00 PM
Treasuries were modestly weaker overnight and yields made a linear move to highs from yesterday afternoon just after the open today.
The first data...
Fri, Nov 15 2013, 4:50 PM
Although bond markets began the day in weaker territory, that was
quickly changed by weak economic data. The Empire State Manufacturing
Index isn...
Thu, Nov 14 2013, 12:42 PM
Janet Yellen just wrapped up the Q&A portion of her confirmation
hearing with the Senate Banking committee. It would have been shorter,
but most ...
Thu, Nov 14 2013, 7:32 AM
Yesterday was quite an interesting day for bond markets and one that
goes a long way toward confirming hope that prices could hold their
ground at...
Thu, Nov 14 2013, 5:01 PM
MBS Live : MBS Afternoon Market Summary
++INSERT COMMENTARY HERE++
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please no...
Wed, Nov 13 2013, 12:27 PM
Even with Treasury auctions coming up at 1pm today and tomorrow,
bond markets are already pushing back against yesterday's weakness.
This is happ...
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