Thu, Dec 19 2013, 8:43 PM
Bond markets began the day by extending yesterday's late weakness in somewhat of a panicky fashion. By tapering only
by a small amount and by pro...
Thu, Dec 19 2013, 4:22 AM
The Fed tapered yesterday, and bond markets didn't freak out as
much as they might have. Immediately following the announcement, bond
markets wen...
Wed, Dec 18 2013, 12:17 PM
While the most attention-grabbing headline of the morning so far has concerned the largest jump in Housing Starts since 1990,
the sharpest movem...
Wed, Dec 18 2013, 9:36 AM
The FOMC Statement due out at 2pm will continue in the Fed's fine
tradition of keeping most of the text unchanged and merely updating key
sections...
Wed, Dec 18 2013, 8:50 PM
After almost exactly half a year of discussing the mythical
"Tapering" as a possible outcome of an FOMC Announcement (there were
some grumblings a...
Wed, Dec 18 2013, 7:56 AM
Let's skip to the important stuff about today. While there will be a
backlog of three months of Housing Starts data released in the morning,
as w...
Wed, Dec 18 2013, 2:05 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September generally suggestsOctober indicates that economic activity has continued...
Tue, Dec 17 2013, 11:45 AM
Seeing as how today is yet another mid-December day that doesn't
contain the long-awaited FOMC Announcement, it's proving to be just
another incon...
Tue, Dec 17 2013, 6:59 AM
The Week Ahead spells out the theme of the week and recaps the market exhaustion leading
up to it. Those themes remain in force until tomorrow's...
Tue, Dec 17 2013, 5:32 PM
It's never fun to be wrapping up our assessment of one major economic event with the conclusion that nothing really matters
until the next one. I...
Mon, Dec 16 2013, 11:56 AM
More than any other day so far in December, today is chock full of that special holiday spirit
that makes for almost inconsequentially light activ...
Mon, Dec 16 2013, 7:24 AM
Exhaustion was evident in last week's bond market trading. We discussed that " year-end exhaustion " quite a bit in this post .
To make a long st...
Mon, Dec 16 2013, 5:13 PM
MBS are heading out right in line with Friday's latest levels. The day began well, and bond markets even made gains
following the stronger-than-e...
Fri, Dec 13 2013, 12:43 PM
"Exhaustion" was the theme of this morning's commentary , and today's price action is confirming that .
One of the byproducts of exhaustion is a ...
Fri, Dec 13 2013, 7:16 AM
It's been a rather exhausting year for bond markets. Unlike the past
3 years, 2013 marks a substantial dose of selling. Not only that, but
the s...
Fri, Dec 13 2013, 4:47 PM
One of the bullet points in this morning's commentary said "bond markets
would rather be napping." As it turns out, they made that dream a
realit...
Thu, Dec 12 2013, 12:36 PM
The Jobless Claims is one of the cornerstones of the economic data
environment. It prints every week, same time, dame day. It's
relatively easy ...
Thu, Dec 12 2013, 4:39 PM
Bond markets moved back and forth within fairly narrow ranges
today, although most of that sideways movement took place at weaker
levels. This wa...
Thu, Dec 12 2013, 2:54 AM
In general, Treasury auctions haven't elicited as much reaction on
the part of MBS as they did back in 2008-2010 when markets were still
feeling o...
Wed, Dec 11 2013, 12:53 PM
Treasuries were only moderately weaker overnight despite the
potential for a "QE off" move after yesterday's budget deal
announcement ("QE off" c...
Wed, Dec 11 2013, 7:40 AM
The big news for mortgage markets out last night is the confirmation
of Mel Watt to take over for Demarco as FHFA Director (technically, Watt
will...
Wed, Dec 11 2013, 5:32 PM
After bond markets showed a surprising amount of strength following NFP,
we'd discussed to possibility of a more developed bounce back lasting
any...
Tue, Dec 10 2013, 12:11 PM
Times are strange in early December. First off, we have bond
markets generally stronger despite Friday's better-than-expected NFP.
While we've b...
Tue, Dec 10 2013, 7:17 AM
After yesterday's lackluster, if positive, session, today holds the
promise of slightly more participation. Not only are Tuesdays generally
a bet...
Tue, Dec 10 2013, 4:21 PM
Both Treasuries and MBS continued the trend of post-NFP
improvements today, paradoxical though they may be. The only apparent
threat to the posti...
Mon, Dec 9 2013, 11:51 AM
Bond markets have been utterly silent so far today with stable, narrow trading ranges, no significant events, and limited volume.
Treasuries held a...
Mon, Dec 9 2013, 7:12 AM
Last week was certainly interesting due to Friday's post-NFP movement
in MBS. After the stronger headline came out (203k payrolls vs 180k
forecas...
Mon, Dec 9 2013, 4:55 PM
Monday got off to an uneventful start as overnight markets were
exceptionally calm. MBS opened flat and added a few ticks in the
morning hours. ...
Fri, Dec 6 2013, 12:38 PM
We've been discussing the past few days in the context of the Gorilla Analogy . If you did catch this morning's commentary, it's even more timely ( ...
Fri, Dec 6 2013, 4:37 PM
"So long MBS and thanks for putting up with all the abuse!" That
might be a caption for today's Employment report. In a way, it's like a
consola...
Fri, Dec 6 2013, 1:08 AM
If you missed it by any chance, yesterday's Gorilla analysis
is worth a read. Yesterday's activity is well-explained in the context
of that an...
Thu, Dec 5 2013, 12:33 PM
Production MBS are only 3 ticks down on the day at the moment, which
belies the volatility seen so far. Some of that is evident in the
pricing sn...
Thu, Dec 5 2013, 5:10 PM
When this morning's economic data came out, stronger-than-expected
Jobless Claims and GDP combined to cause brisk selling at first. By the
end of...
Thu, Dec 5 2013, 1:18 AM
NFP (nonfarm payrolls, the chief component of Friday's Employment
Situation Report) is the most important piece of economic data on any
given mont...
Wed, Dec 4 2013, 12:27 PM
The ADP Employment Report, as expected, was the biggest factor in
bond market movement this morning. After the numbers hit at 8:15,
volume popped...
Wed, Dec 4 2013, 7:30 AM
MBS are having a bad few weeks since FOMC Minutes reignited a PORTION
of tapering possibilities in December. We say "portion" because it's
not ...
Wed, Dec 4 2013, 4:24 PM
Bond markets were treated to a surprise guest this afternoon as
"MBS outperformance" returned after being absent for nearly a month. In
other wo...
Tue, Dec 3 2013, 12:45 PM
If this isn't the first time, then it's one of a precious few where
we've deigned to mention Detroit's bankruptcy saga, but there's a
chance that ...
Tue, Dec 3 2013, 7:36 AM
As Friday's jobs report approaches, we're left to ponder how much
weakness we might see in MBS and Treasuries without actually getting the
strong ...
Tue, Dec 3 2013, 4:30 PM
MBS and Treasuries diverged again today. This road more-traveled
for MBS has several sources of justification and explanation, but it's
really th...
Mon, Dec 2 2013, 11:49 AM
Treasuries drifted only moderately weaker as the first December
trading kicked off in Asian markets. 10yr yields rose to 2.76
initially, but move...
Mon, Dec 2 2013, 7:55 AM
After last week's Thanksgiving holiday and bond market closures cast
some doubt as to whether or not we should put much stock in MBS
weakness, thi...
Mon, Dec 2 2013, 4:13 PM
Bond markets got off to a rough start in December. After moving
modestly higher in Japan and more convincingly higher in Europe,
interest rates o...
Fri, Nov 29 2013, 12:03 PM
MBS Live : MBS Morning Market Summary
++INSERT COMMENTARY HERE++
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note...
Fri, Nov 29 2013, 1:26 AM
It's not at all likely that today's half-day will be able to do anything
to inform Wednesday's weak session for better or worse. Any strength
can...
Wed, Nov 27 2013, 12:14 PM
In homage to 2012, we have a fairly substantial Thanksgiving
sell-off on our hands. For what it's worth, the substantial
Thanksgiving sell-off of...
Wed, Nov 27 2013, 4:27 PM
Today offers a very interesting set of circumstances to consider
for MBS and mortgage rates. First, we can safely assume that rate
sheets have be...
Tue, Nov 26 2013, 11:38 AM
To be perfectly fair to Consumer Confidence, it certainly did not
cause any significant market movement this morning, despite its
potential to do ...
Tue, Nov 26 2013, 8:53 PM
Despite the term "extended weekend" being thrown around a bit, bond
markets are open for a half day on Friday. While that technically makes
it th...
Tue, Nov 26 2013, 5:17 AM
Here on November 26th, it might seem like the government shutdown
that ended in mid-October is far enough in the rearview that we wouldn't
still b...
MBS Market Alerts
