Tue, Oct 8 2013, 6:52 AM
With the government shutdown ongoing, there continues to be a severe restriction
on relevant economic data. Unfortunately, "relevant economic dat...
Tue, Oct 8 2013, 4:48 PM
Bond markets put on a clinic today, demonstrating just how intent they
are on doing absolutely nothing. It may not have seemed like much of a
fea...
Mon, Oct 7 2013, 7:44 AM
Uncertainty and paralysis were the themes that pervaded last week.
Those are likely to continue for bond markets as long as the shutdown
persists...
Mon, Oct 7 2013, 5:32 PM
There are several different iterations of "Shutdown Limbo," they're
all essentially the same dance at the end of the day, especially this
one! Re...
Mon, Oct 7 2013, 1:55 PM
The week has begun in the same sideways fashion that dominated the
entirety of last week. 10yr yields continue to orbit around 2.615,
moving more...
Fri, Oct 4 2013, 7:53 AM
Yesterday was very telling in 2 important ways. First of all, it
confirmed that no one knows what the heck they're going to do until they
get the...
Fri, Oct 4 2013, 5:06 PM
If we take every price from every minute of MBS trading so far in
October, the average Fannie 3.5 price is 101-26, precisely where it's
coasting o...
Fri, Oct 4 2013, 1:14 PM
Sometimes there are a lot of headlines and events to discuss, but
this isn't one of those times. There's nothing new or meaningful to add
beyond ...
Thu, Oct 3 2013, 12:01 PM
ISM's Non-Manufacturing Index has always been a relevant market
mover, but especially so during in recent months. Today's rivals
yesterday's ADP ...
Thu, Oct 3 2013, 8:20 AM
At least a few pundits yesterday said directly or alluded to the
notion--in not so many words--that the Fed didn't matter as much this
week becaus...
Thu, Oct 3 2013, 4:52 PM
Of all the times that a government shutdown could take the monthly
jobs report offline, this week may have been one of most challenging to
deal wi...
Wed, Oct 2 2013, 12:18 PM
Bond markets traded reasonably well overnight, improving at first, but
giving up ground as the domestic session got underway. By 8am, MBS and
Tre...
Wed, Oct 2 2013, 4:50 PM
Bond markets began the day relatively close to Tuesday's latest
levels and were soon in rally mode owing to the weaker-than-expected ADP
Employmen...
Wed, Oct 2 2013, 1:37 AM
Weeks that contain the Employment Situation Report (NFP) are
supposed to be all about NFP. Yet here we are in the midst of a
government shutdow...
Tue, Oct 1 2013, 11:59 AM
MBS Live : MBS Morning Market Summary
++INSERT COMMENTARY HERE++
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note...
Tue, Oct 1 2013, 7:01 AM
The day is young, but at midnight eastern, we have no Shutdown
resolution and the Senate is ostensibly out until 930am ET. Overnight
markets gree...
Tue, Oct 1 2013, 4:39 PM
Bond markets were ready to take short term guidance from the
"government shutdown" resolution or lack thereof. This has been far
from a primary m...
Mon, Sep 30 2013, 12:24 PM
Bond markets started the day in slightly stronger territory though
remained in line with Friday's latest levels. Overnight events were
supportive...
Mon, Sep 30 2013, 7:17 AM
A lot about how the week shapes up depends on what happens by
midnight tonight with respect to the 'government shutdown.' The
government agency r...
Mon, Sep 30 2013, 4:50 PM
In the context of the nearly month-long rally in place since Sep
6th, today's MBS movements were more volatile than average. Fannie
3.5s started...
Fri, Sep 27 2013, 12:34 PM
MBS began the day in an unassuming stance. Treasuries had just
rallied sharply in the overnight session with 10's moving from 2.67 to
under 2.63,...
Fri, Sep 27 2013, 8:29 AM
Last week's FOMC statement and all that's followed have acted the part of Occam's Razor
in reducing the ifs and thens of bond market movement to p...
Fri, Sep 27 2013, 5:36 PM
The trading day is essentially over and MBS are heading out 3 ticks
higher than the levels reported in the last alert. This is enough to
obviate ...
Thu, Sep 26 2013, 12:56 PM
MBS opened just a tick under yesterday's latest levels and have
mostly moved weaker from there. Treasuries similarly started the day
just above y...
Thu, Sep 26 2013, 8:00 AM
In a similar vein to yesterday's outlook, we're still on guard against
any potential jolts from stronger data. Anything else, however, is
friendl...
Thu, Sep 26 2013, 5:10 PM
Bond markets were slightly weaker heading into today's session and
extended the weakness by very small steps after the day's meaningful
events. T...
Wed, Sep 25 2013, 12:23 PM
Bond markets came into the domestic session in slightly weaker
territory, carrying some negative momentum from European hours. Volumes
were low, ...
Wed, Sep 25 2013, 7:23 AM
Today
- Focus is on Durable Goods and New Home Sales in the AM.
- Either one could help reinforce a pause in the rally if stronger than expec...
Wed, Sep 25 2013, 5:42 PM
Coming out of last week's FOMC Announcement, it seemed almost too simple
to conclude that this it marked a solid opportunity for rates to stop
c...
Tue, Sep 24 2013, 12:36 PM
Fannie 4.0s are trading in territory not seen since we passed it on
the way down back on June 19th. Today's gains have been slow and
steady, once...
Tue, Sep 24 2013, 7:14 AM
To be fair to Monday, there wasn't much by way of 'drama' detectable
in trading levels. After some early gyrations, MBS were generally
moving hig...
Tue, Sep 24 2013, 6:36 PM
MBS hit 3-month highs today--levels not seen since we crashed into
them at the end of the day on June 19th. Fannie 4.0s made highs at
104-16 the ...
Mon, Sep 23 2013, 12:07 PM
The week got off to an expectedly slow start in terms of volume and volatility, with prices holding
near Friday's latest levels for the first few ho...
Mon, Sep 23 2013, 7:56 AM
Monday is the quietest day of the week in terms of scheduled economic
reports, though we will get several Fed speakers and second-tier
manufacturi...
Mon, Sep 23 2013, 4:40 PM
Several lenders were out with improved rate sheets this afternoon, as reported in real time by MBS Live
members. The underlying strength making su...
Fri, Sep 20 2013, 7:48 AM
Thinking about bond market trading levels in the context of "battle"
is fun. Analogies make technical concepts easier. So here's a brief
battle ...
Fri, Sep 20 2013, 4:53 PM
When we talk about consolidation, we're generally talking about MBS
Prices or interest rates moving counter, in some way, to a larger or
longer-te...
Fri, Sep 20 2013, 1:07 PM
With nothing on the calendar but Fed speakers and being a " quadruple witching "
day, we stood a chance to see some volatility this morning. So far...
Thu, Sep 19 2013, 12:19 PM
It's been an interesting session so far. MBS came in the door in
line with yesterday's latest levels, digested an oddly flavored Jobless
Claims r...
Thu, Sep 19 2013, 7:24 PM
There's a decent enough chance that if you didn't know what happened
yesterday, today's weakness would be just as frustrating as any other
weaknes...
Thu, Sep 19 2013, 6:56 AM
Yesterday rocked, plain and simple. A dichotomy had arisen between
the ostensible course of Fed policy and it's increasingly clear impact.
In ot...
Wed, Sep 18 2013, 12:44 PM
MBS and Treasuries are now back in to their best levels of the day
(pricing snapshot below is taken just after 11am, but we've improved
since then...
Wed, Sep 18 2013, 8:29 AM
There are two kinds of market watchers in the world: those who
believe the Fed plays the largest role in setting the pace of big
movement in bon...
Wed, Sep 18 2013, 5:03 PM
A "facemelter" is a long-standing MBS Live term for a gigantic rally
in MBS prices. The Fed caused one today by flipping the script on
market exp...
Wed, Sep 18 2013, 2:09 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met
in July suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate
pace. So...
Tue, Sep 17 2013, 12:08 PM
From this morning's MBS Live Update: The inevitable pall of silence leading up to FOMC Wednesday is much more
evident this morning, without the dist...
Tue, Sep 17 2013, 6:40 AM
Larry Summers gift to bond market trading on Sunday/Monday was that
we now have the honor of approaching Wednesday's FOMC events with the
"Larry S...
Tue, Sep 17 2013, 5:41 PM
We've been waiting for tomorrow, specifically, for nearly 4 months.
Competing reactions to the key components in the FOMC data make for an
utterl...
Mon, Sep 16 2013, 12:03 PM
On Sunday evening, Larry Summers announced his withdrawal from
consideration for the Fed Chair position. Stock and Bond futures
rallied big durin...
Mon, Sep 16 2013, 7:25 AM
From the moment the Fed officially began considering a reduction in
asset purchases in late June, and even when unofficial consideration
ramped up...
MBS Market Alerts
