Wed, Sep 25 2013, 7:23 AM
Today
- Focus is on Durable Goods and New Home Sales in the AM.
- Either one could help reinforce a pause in the rally if stronger than expec...
Wed, Sep 25 2013, 5:42 PM
Coming out of last week's FOMC Announcement, it seemed almost too simple
to conclude that this it marked a solid opportunity for rates to stop
c...
Tue, Sep 24 2013, 12:36 PM
Fannie 4.0s are trading in territory not seen since we passed it on
the way down back on June 19th. Today's gains have been slow and
steady, once...
Tue, Sep 24 2013, 7:14 AM
To be fair to Monday, there wasn't much by way of 'drama' detectable
in trading levels. After some early gyrations, MBS were generally
moving hig...
Tue, Sep 24 2013, 6:36 PM
MBS hit 3-month highs today--levels not seen since we crashed into
them at the end of the day on June 19th. Fannie 4.0s made highs at
104-16 the ...
Mon, Sep 23 2013, 12:07 PM
The week got off to an expectedly slow start in terms of volume and volatility, with prices holding
near Friday's latest levels for the first few ho...
Mon, Sep 23 2013, 7:56 AM
Monday is the quietest day of the week in terms of scheduled economic
reports, though we will get several Fed speakers and second-tier
manufacturi...
Mon, Sep 23 2013, 4:40 PM
Several lenders were out with improved rate sheets this afternoon, as reported in real time by MBS Live
members. The underlying strength making su...
Fri, Sep 20 2013, 7:48 AM
Thinking about bond market trading levels in the context of "battle"
is fun. Analogies make technical concepts easier. So here's a brief
battle ...
Fri, Sep 20 2013, 4:53 PM
When we talk about consolidation, we're generally talking about MBS
Prices or interest rates moving counter, in some way, to a larger or
longer-te...
Fri, Sep 20 2013, 1:07 PM
With nothing on the calendar but Fed speakers and being a " quadruple witching "
day, we stood a chance to see some volatility this morning. So far...
Thu, Sep 19 2013, 12:19 PM
It's been an interesting session so far. MBS came in the door in
line with yesterday's latest levels, digested an oddly flavored Jobless
Claims r...
Thu, Sep 19 2013, 7:24 PM
There's a decent enough chance that if you didn't know what happened
yesterday, today's weakness would be just as frustrating as any other
weaknes...
Thu, Sep 19 2013, 6:56 AM
Yesterday rocked, plain and simple. A dichotomy had arisen between
the ostensible course of Fed policy and it's increasingly clear impact.
In ot...
Wed, Sep 18 2013, 12:44 PM
MBS and Treasuries are now back in to their best levels of the day
(pricing snapshot below is taken just after 11am, but we've improved
since then...
Wed, Sep 18 2013, 8:29 AM
There are two kinds of market watchers in the world: those who
believe the Fed plays the largest role in setting the pace of big
movement in bon...
Wed, Sep 18 2013, 5:03 PM
A "facemelter" is a long-standing MBS Live term for a gigantic rally
in MBS prices. The Fed caused one today by flipping the script on
market exp...
Wed, Sep 18 2013, 2:09 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met
in July suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate
pace. So...
Tue, Sep 17 2013, 12:08 PM
From this morning's MBS Live Update: The inevitable pall of silence leading up to FOMC Wednesday is much more
evident this morning, without the dist...
Tue, Sep 17 2013, 6:40 AM
Larry Summers gift to bond market trading on Sunday/Monday was that
we now have the honor of approaching Wednesday's FOMC events with the
"Larry S...
Tue, Sep 17 2013, 5:41 PM
We've been waiting for tomorrow, specifically, for nearly 4 months.
Competing reactions to the key components in the FOMC data make for an
utterl...
Mon, Sep 16 2013, 12:03 PM
On Sunday evening, Larry Summers announced his withdrawal from
consideration for the Fed Chair position. Stock and Bond futures
rallied big durin...
Mon, Sep 16 2013, 7:25 AM
From the moment the Fed officially began considering a reduction in
asset purchases in late June, and even when unofficial consideration
ramped up...
Mon, Sep 16 2013, 4:32 PM
Interest rates have been determined and methodical about their slog
higher from May 2nd levels. That's been well over a full percentage
point bot...
Fri, Sep 13 2013, 11:54 AM
For bond markets, it's another day of "positivity, but with a
catch." That's been the case with every single drop of positive
momentum this week!...
Fri, Sep 13 2013, 4:43 PM
It takes some measure of bravery to bet big rates moving
significantly lower or higher from current levels when the rest of the
market is so decid...
Fri, Sep 13 2013, 1:43 AM
At this point, next week's FOMC events are on a pedestal so high that
their actual stature may be hard-pressed to live up to the legend.
After al...
Thu, Sep 12 2013, 8:14 AM
Yesterday traded like the Thursday of an auction week rather than a Wednesday, in that there was a noticeable sigh of relief
in bond markets after...
Thu, Sep 12 2013, 4:34 PM
Today's commentary began with the observation that yesterday seemed
more like the culmination of an auction cycle than the middle of one.
Today's...
Thu, Sep 12 2013, 1:22 PM
Treasuries were stronger overnight as Asian accounts kicked off the
session piling in to the same post Verizon/10yr Auction positivity seen
during...
Wed, Sep 11 2013, 6:46 AM
Even with backs already up against a wall, bond markets still managed
to find a way to be weaker on Tuesday. Perhaps this means we need to
adjust...
Wed, Sep 11 2013, 5:15 PM
MBS began the day roughly in line with yesterday's latest post-roll
levels (meaning October's 30yr Fixed Fannie/Freddie MBS opened today
where the...
Wed, Sep 11 2013, 1:13 PM
The 10yr Auction just came in much stronger than expected. Bond
markets had been volatile ahead of time as the massive Verizon corporate
bond off...
Tue, Sep 10 2013, 12:56 PM
Bond markets began the day in weaker territory with a number of
factors eligible for blame. Overnight data was stronger in China and
Europe.n Te...
Tue, Sep 10 2013, 6:43 AM
Tuesday sees the inception of both the Treasury Auction cycle and the
MBS Settlement cycle for the week and month. For MBS, this merely
means tha...
Tue, Sep 10 2013, 5:25 PM
At this point in the day, it looks like MBS will be able to make it
to the exits with sustaining any major damage on top of that which was
already...
Mon, Sep 9 2013, 12:15 PM
Treasuries were strong and steady overnight, building the sense
that Friday afternoon's weakness was more a factor of investors pulling
up stake f...
Mon, Sep 9 2013, 6:37 AM
After Friday's Employment Situation Report posed just as many questions as it cleared up, we now move on to the countdown for the next watershed even...
Mon, Sep 9 2013, 4:25 PM
There's very little to observe and even less to conclude about the day
of MBS trading so far. Fannie 4.0s have held within 2 ticks of 102-24
sinc...
Fri, Sep 6 2013, 11:39 AM
If you've ever willingly sought and and enjoyed vanilla ice cream,
then you're already familiar with the flavor of today's bond market
rally. The...
Fri, Sep 6 2013, 7:35 AM
Today we will receive long-awaited data that does more than anything
else to confirm or reject the notion of September tapering than anything
else...
Fri, Sep 6 2013, 5:25 PM
Treasuries and MBS were coming off a rough day heading into this
morning's Employment Situation Report. 10yr yields hit their highest
levels and ...
Thu, Sep 5 2013, 12:37 PM
This risk that today's session would bring a pre-NFP "lead off" in
the event of stronger data is coming to nauseating fruition before our
eyes. 1...
Thu, Sep 5 2013, 8:02 PM
There's little left to say about today that hasn't already been said in the earlier MBS MID-DAY .
As that post notes, seeing bond markets take a "l...
Thu, Sep 5 2013, 7:49 AM
Since the methodology change, 7 out of 9 reports have accurately
predicted the direction of movement in the official private payrolls
tally from...
Wed, Sep 4 2013, 12:02 PM
Overnight markets were relatively uneventful with moderate weakness for
Treasuries during Asian hours and a slight recovery during European
hours....
Wed, Sep 4 2013, 6:38 AM
Typically, the Wednesday before an NFP Friday would bring ADP Private
Payrolls at 8:15am, but due to the holiday-shortened week, ADP will now
arri...
Wed, Sep 4 2013, 4:32 PM
Focusing too closely on the events and market movements of this
single session could make for challenging and unsatisfying analysis.
Instead, if ...
Tue, Sep 3 2013, 12:29 PM
Even before this morning's economic data, bond markets were in
weaker territory as the US played catch up to the rest of the world's
Monday tradin...
Tue, Sep 3 2013, 8:22 AM
As certainty of the Fed's intent to reduce asset purchases at the September meeting has waxed and waned (and waxed again), one thing
has remained ...
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