Mon, Sep 21 2020, 10:06 AM
One of my favorite pastimes is debunking the notion that stock prices and bonds yields 'always' correlate. Years of indoctrination from the conventio...
Fri, Sep 18 2020, 5:30 PM
Range Trading Settling in For Long(er) Haul
With no significant bond market volatility in response to this w...
Fri, Sep 18 2020, 9:47 AM
Tossed coconut salad... Fresh coconut milk... New England boiled coconut... There were only so many menu choices for Yosemite Sam working with one i...
Thu, Sep 17 2020, 4:06 PM
Still Waiting on Bonds to Attempt a Range Breakout
Yesterday's Fed announcement managed to deliver the bare ...
Thu, Sep 17 2020, 9:44 AM
Yesterday's Fed announcement managed to deliver the bare minimum of the market's expectations and underdeliver on fairly reasonable hopes. That res...
Wed, Sep 16 2020, 4:43 PM
What Did The Fed Actually Change?
Here are the most notable changes:
The vague notion of symmetric 2 per...
Wed, Sep 16 2020, 2:06 PM
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum ...
Wed, Sep 16 2020, 10:03 AM
Coronavirus is responsible for many "firsts." Apart from the obvious impact on daily life there are firsts for the economy and monetary policy as wel...
Tue, Sep 15 2020, 3:54 PM
Locking vs Floating Ahead of Potentially Big Fed Announcement
First thing's first: if you haven't seen the a...
Tue, Sep 15 2020, 10:46 AM
In August, we witnessed a rapid acceleration in expectations for the Fed's long-awaited inflation framework shift. Although it seemed rather precipit...
Mon, Sep 14 2020, 4:42 PM
Small Scale Volatility In The Bigger Picture
The adverse market fee continues to dominate lock/float conside...
Mon, Sep 14 2020, 9:34 AM
Bonds have been consolidating aggressively for an entire month . 10yr yields have been perfectly contained between 0.63 and 0.73 with one brief occa...
Fri, Sep 11 2020, 5:05 PM
Lock Decisions Still Hinge on Adverse Market Fee
Without any significant volatility in the bond market, mort...
Fri, Sep 11 2020, 9:39 AM
There's nothing quite like the visual (and visceral) impact of opening up MBS Live in the morning only to see a big drop in the blue line. Today is o...
Thu, Sep 10 2020, 4:55 PM
Lock Decisions Still Hinge on Adverse Market Fee
The bond market had a decent showing today, ultimately rall...
Thu, Sep 10 2020, 10:28 AM
Central banks are engaging in unprecedented levels of stimulus and transparency. The US is one of the worst offenders, spending at a record pace whil...
Wed, Sep 9 2020, 3:09 PM
It Could Have Been a Lot Worse
Although the bond market definitely had its own reasons to weaken last Friday...
Tue, Sep 8 2020, 4:40 PM
Stock Market Weakness To The Rescue
Last Friday tied August 11th as the worst day of since early June. It w...
Tue, Sep 8 2020, 9:08 AM
Up until last Friday, bonds had improved decisively for 5 consecutive days. It's fairly rare to see these sorts of winning streaks last more than 5 d...
Fri, Sep 4 2020, 4:31 PM
Perfect Storm in Bonds Pushing Yields Quickly Higher
Between the 5-day rally running the risk of getting tir...
Fri, Sep 4 2020, 9:36 AM
Due to the "anything can happen" nature of financial markets AND the fact that traders can trade what we can predict, I rarely take an unequivocal sta...
Thu, Sep 3 2020, 4:58 PM
Lock vs Float Considerations Ahead of NFP and Holiday Weekend
Bonds did well at face value today, but there ...
Thu, Sep 3 2020, 9:34 AM
The premise for today is remarkably simple. In fact, it really doesn't need many words by the time you see the first chart. After Powell and the F...
Wed, Sep 2 2020, 3:40 PM
Bonds Confirm The Breakout, But There Are 2 Ways to Play It
Today offers firm confirmation of the range brea...
Wed, Sep 2 2020, 9:20 AM
If you're like me, your initial impression of the financial market is that it's "thing" with a mind of its own-- always on , always moving, with thous...
Tue, Sep 1 2020, 4:05 PM
New Month, New Trend?
We often see a clear bias toward strength or weakness during any given month in the bo...
Tue, Sep 1 2020, 9:06 AM
While it's definitely not a hard and fast rule, we often see a clear bias toward strength or weakness during any given month in the bond market. July...
Mon, Aug 31 2020, 3:44 PM
Bonds Making Case For Friendly Technical Bounce
Last Friday, we were already eyeing the technical ceiling at...
Mon, Aug 31 2020, 9:28 AM
Just like early June, we're once again forced to consider that several weeks of upward movement in yields means the lows are behind us for now. Just ...
Fri, Aug 28 2020, 4:45 PM
Nice Recovery Today, But Is It a Trap?
If the Fed is doubling down on its inflation goals, it makes sense fo...
Fri, Aug 28 2020, 10:06 AM
Yesterday was "interesting," to say the least. The Fed surprised markets with another unscheduled policy update and bonds traded accordingly. The su...
Thu, Aug 27 2020, 3:42 PM
Has Everything Changed After Powell Speech?
Powell's speech was the only Fed communication on the calendar t...
Thu, Aug 27 2020, 8:51 AM
If you don't want to read to the end to get the answer posed in the headline, here is a spoiler:
Yes, a new framework is both good and bad for bonds...
Wed, Aug 26 2020, 4:21 PM
LLPA Impact vs Powell Speech. Time to Lock?
Much has been made (by news media... not bond market participan...
Wed, Aug 26 2020, 9:58 AM
There's a global pandemic. On the one hand, it seems to be improving. On the other, it's responsible for a potentially permanent shift in the US lab...
Tue, Aug 25 2020, 4:21 PM
New Curveball as LLPA Just Got Delayed Until Dec 1
There are two huddle videos today. The newest and most r...
Tue, Aug 25 2020, 10:08 AM
Any conversation about momentum, victory, or defeat in the bond market must be prefaced with the acknowledgment that we're dealing with what would his...
Mon, Aug 24 2020, 3:49 PM
More Defensive But Not Without Hope
2 weeks ago, a heavy slate of supply contributed to small-scale panic in...
Mon, Aug 24 2020, 10:21 AM
Last week did a nice job of confirming a ceiling in Treasury yields after the previous week saw rates move sharply higher. At the same time the S&P...
Fri, Aug 21 2020, 5:17 PM
A Week of Reassurance For The Bond Market
Last week saw the first major break higher after a calm, sustained...
Fri, Aug 21 2020, 9:19 AM
Coronavirus obviously ushered in an era of record low rates. The ongoing challenges and uncertainties are fairly well understood. They have a wide s...
Thu, Aug 20 2020, 4:49 PM
MBS Underperforming Treasuries, But Broader Trends Are Decent
The mortgage market continues coping with the ...
Thu, Aug 20 2020, 10:01 AM
Realistically, Europe has been as big of a friend to US bond markets as the Fed. If it weren't for Greek concerns and the mounting systemic crisis, U...
Wed, Aug 19 2020, 4:43 PM
Fed Minutes and LLPA Hangover Hurting Rates
Mortgage rates have been quite rebellious in 2020 when it comes ...
Wed, Aug 19 2020, 9:02 AM
I talked yesterday about rates "reconnecting with the bond market," and that's an assertion that needs some more clarification on several levels. By ...
Tue, Aug 18 2020, 4:55 PM
Rates Are Reconnecting With Bond Market Movement
After last week's LLPA news, lenders pulled back pricing fo...
Tue, Aug 18 2020, 9:29 AM
It's age-old conventional wisdom. Buy stocks, sell bonds, vice versa, risk-on vs risk-off. One of the most common questions I receive over the years...
Mon, Aug 17 2020, 3:57 PM
Mortgage Market Looking For a Better Week For Two Reasons
Last week was unpleasant in the mortgage world, to...
Mon, Aug 17 2020, 9:25 AM
Last week was unpleasant in the mortgage world, to say the least. Rates suffered a double whammy due to the surprise 50bp LLPA on refis and the trend ...
Fri, Aug 14 2020, 5:47 PM
Boring Day For Bonds, But Tension Remains For Mortgages
Rates continued reeling (depending on the lender) fr...
MBS Market Alerts
