Fri, Nov 13 2020, 10:55 AM
The holiday-shortened bond trading week began poorly with vaccine news causing a massive yield spike. Tuesday didn't do too much to allay fears, but ...
Thu, Nov 12 2020, 4:23 PM
Strong Move in Bonds Helps Balance The Outlook
After a month of almost exclusive weakness, extreme volatilit...
Thu, Nov 12 2020, 9:54 AM
Following Monday's vaccine-inspired bond rout, we're seeing markets take the middle path. Stocks corrected to pre-vaccine levels later that same day ...
Tue, Nov 10 2020, 5:01 PM
Bonds Refuse to Answer The Big Questions Heading Into Mid-Week Holiday
After days like Monday (in which the ...
Tue, Nov 10 2020, 9:33 AM
After days like Monday (in which the bond market lost ground at the fastest pace in months due to the Pfizer vaccine news), we can see one of three th...
Mon, Nov 9 2020, 3:24 PM
Bonds Reeling. Was That Enough Weakness to Find Some Support?
Pfizer's vaccine trial update rocked markets ...
Mon, Nov 9 2020, 9:54 AM
Last week was obviously all about the election. By Friday, our recap said "forget the election" and focused on speculation that the Fed would soon be...
Fri, Nov 6 2020, 5:35 PM
Forget The Election, Here's a Huge New Possibility To Consider
Bonds finally weakened a bit today after 2 ni...
Fri, Nov 6 2020, 10:15 AM
10yr yields already showed their lack of bullish conviction when it came time to challenge a floor at .72%. If anything the message was that addition...
Thu, Nov 5 2020, 4:33 PM
No Reaction to Fed, Bonds Waiting on More Election Clarity
Between the weaker momentum throughout October an...
Thu, Nov 5 2020, 2:02 PM
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum ...
Thu, Nov 5 2020, 9:17 AM
Heading into the election, the dominant trading theme was "sideways to slightly weaker" for both stocks and bonds. Now, before you point to the fact ...
Wed, Nov 4 2020, 3:52 PM
Big Rally on Election Revelations
Fairly early in the domestic session, markets rapidly came to the realizat...
Wed, Nov 4 2020, 9:15 AM
Before last night, polls, betting odds, talking heads, prediction experts, and your Aunt Mabel all agreed Biden would be the next president. Financia...
Tue, Nov 3 2020, 3:43 PM
10yr Yields at 0.96% a Best-Case Starting Point For a Bad Reaction in Bonds
The election (referring both to ...
Tue, Nov 3 2020, 9:14 AM
Here we are at last on the final trading day before the bond market receives what could be its biggest of actionable information since the initial sur...
Mon, Nov 2 2020, 3:18 PM
MBS Struggle to Hold Gains, But Rates Aren't Scared Yet
Bonds were mixed today with both MBS and Treasuries...
Mon, Nov 2 2020, 9:12 AM
There were already roughly 400k 10yr Treasury futures contracts traded by 8am today. A typical overnight session runs in the 100-300k range. Volume ...
Fri, Oct 30 2020, 4:09 PM
Traders Running For Sidelines Ahead of Next Week's Election
Big losses in both stocks and bonds today as tra...
Fri, Oct 30 2020, 10:52 AM
The topic of month-end trading comes up frequently over the years. Reason being: we often see market momentum on the last few days of any given month...
Thu, Oct 29 2020, 4:50 PM
Technicals And Fundamentals Join Forces to Deliver Warning For Rates
Whether we're talking about the week as...
Thu, Oct 29 2020, 11:17 AM
Let's do the simply-worded conclusion right up front. For fans of low rates, the Fed's inclusion of 1.5 MBS (30yr) is a good thing, but not some ne...
Wed, Oct 28 2020, 5:09 PM
Bonds Struggle to Hold Gains Despite Stock Rout
As of the 3pm CME close, 10yr yields were higher on the day....
Wed, Oct 28 2020, 10:03 AM
October has been unpleasant for the bond market--Treasuries specifically. That's not to say it's been a walk in the park for MBS. They too have lost...
Tue, Oct 27 2020, 4:33 PM
Bonds Looking Better This Week, But Risks Remain
Today's release of FHFA's home price index showed a sharp a...
Tue, Oct 27 2020, 11:33 AM
We'll start off with more of an industry-specific curiosity (as opposed to diving right into markets/rates). Then again, the conforming loan limit is...
Mon, Oct 26 2020, 3:36 PM
Rising Rate Trend Changing Course or Just Leveling Off?
After a modest day of gains on Friday, bonds covered...
Mon, Oct 26 2020, 10:36 AM
We knew that bonds would be forced to accept more volatility in October, if for no other reason than September's progressive and ultimately complete a...
Fri, Oct 23 2020, 3:49 PM
Have MBS Finally Reached The Limits of Outperformance vs Treasuries?
Bonds are in the throws of an extended ...
Fri, Oct 23 2020, 10:11 AM
In the bond market, as a whole, we've never seen yields any lower for any longer than they've been in 2020. The runners up aren't even close. Even...
Thu, Oct 22 2020, 3:53 PM
Staggering MBS Outperformance Easing Negative Momentum Pain
Bonds are in the throws of an extended negative ...
Thu, Oct 22 2020, 10:16 AM
There are several ways to look at "the range" when it comes to post-covid trading levels in the bond market. There are several ways to look at "the b...
Wed, Oct 21 2020, 4:25 PM
Bonds Find Footing Early, But Aren't Able to Go Green
It's safe to say the bond market found its footing tod...
Wed, Oct 21 2020, 9:40 AM
There have been reasons to fear a momentum shift in bonds for several weeks now. Here's how we discussed it at the beginning of October:
"It's neve...
Tue, Oct 20 2020, 4:32 PM
Bearish Bond Trend Continues
Looking back at MBS or Treasuries over the past few weeks reveals a clear termi...
Tue, Oct 20 2020, 9:25 AM
It was fun and easy to get caught up in (or spoiled by) the recent ultra-narrow range in the bond market. The boundaries of that range were .62 and ....
Mon, Oct 19 2020, 3:42 PM
Bond Market Modestly But Disappointingly Weak Despite Stock Sell-Off
Bonds started out weaker and looked lik...
Mon, Oct 19 2020, 11:24 AM
Pressure is mounting for the bond market. After a period of intensely calm, narrow trading throughout September, 10yr yields quickly moved to challen...
Fri, Oct 16 2020, 4:04 PM
MBS Defy Odds as Bond Bulls Fail For 3rd Straight Day
After failing back to back attempts to retake the rece...
Fri, Oct 16 2020, 11:42 AM
Admittedly, this is less of a "day ahead" at this point and more of a "day in progress." Nonetheless, we can discuss the lay of the land as we gear u...
Thu, Oct 15 2020, 3:54 PM
Bonds Come Up Short After Another Attempt to Re-Enter Previous Range
For a second straight day, 10yr yields ...
Thu, Oct 15 2020, 9:59 AM
From 2011 through the middle of 2016, the European economy, monetary system, and policy landscape had an extreme amount of influence over volatility a...
Wed, Oct 14 2020, 4:35 PM
Bonds Start Strong But MBS Struggle to Keep Up
Last week was clearly a defensive shift for the bond market. ...
Wed, Oct 14 2020, 10:52 AM
Inflation is one of the basic building blocks of bond yields. A bond is a loan... an agreement for you to give me a lump sum of cash today and for me...
Tue, Oct 13 2020, 4:36 PM
Bonds Start Strong After Playing Defense Last Week
Last week was clearly a defensive shift for the bond mark...
Tue, Oct 13 2020, 10:29 AM
The new week begins with "the roll" for 30yr UMBS--our in-house term to refer to the monthly settlement process for MBS coupons, and a perennial sou...
Fri, Oct 9 2020, 4:59 PM
Weakness and Consolidation as Bonds Wait For Stimulus
This week began with a decisive breakout to higher yie...
Fri, Oct 9 2020, 10:19 AM
At one point in time (and perhaps to this day) if you'd asked the average bond market watcher to name the top 3 months for volatility, October would d...
Thu, Oct 8 2020, 3:51 PM
Too Soon To Hope For Support?
This week began with a decisive breakout to higher yields in the bond market. ...
Thu, Oct 8 2020, 10:17 AM
This week began with a decisive breakout to higher yields in the bond market. Trump's comments on stimulus have been a key source of volatility althou...
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