Fri, Dec 18 2020, 4:58 PM
2020 In The Books Apart From Token Stimulus Reaction
By the end of the trading day, congress was seemingly n...
Fri, Dec 18 2020, 9:51 AM
Next week, the bond market will only be open for 3.5 days. In that time, the bond market will see a majority of its 'year-end' trades (asset allocati...
Thu, Dec 17 2020, 4:03 PM
Seasonally Sideways Sans Stimulus
With Fed day behind us, the much-anticipated stimulus/spending bill is all...
Thu, Dec 17 2020, 8:58 AM
The combination of a friendly press conference with Fed Chair Powell and an unfriendly absence of change to the bond buying policy left the bond marke...
Wed, Dec 16 2020, 4:30 PM
Fed Abstains From Bond-Buying Change, But Powell Delivers
Speculation about whether or not the Fed would mak...
Wed, Dec 16 2020, 2:02 PM
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum ...
Wed, Dec 16 2020, 9:33 AM
Fiscal stimulus has been a hot topic for the bond market since the pandemic first kicked into a high enough gear to require fiscal support for the US ...
Tue, Dec 15 2020, 4:59 PM
What Exactly Might The Fed Do Tomorrow and Why Should We Care?
MBS suffered, somewhat, from supply/demand is...
Tue, Dec 15 2020, 9:54 AM
With the exception of a surprise stimulus plan announcement or a huge departure from expectations in certain economic reports, the bond market is lock...
Mon, Dec 14 2020, 3:15 PM
Bonds Catch a Break From Downbeat Headlines; Fed Still in Focus
Wednesday's Fed announcement is the biggest ...
Mon, Dec 14 2020, 9:11 AM
Between vaccines, Brexit, covid surges, covid lockdowns, holiday retail, and various political headlines, it seems like the market should have a diver...
Fri, Dec 11 2020, 5:58 PM
An Epic Tale of Mortgage Rates vs MBS vs Treasuries
Risks are beginning to mount for the rate outlook--at le...
Fri, Dec 11 2020, 10:26 AM
The past few months have seen several troubling, but not unexpected developments for the long-term rate outlook. While they're not the type of thre...
Thu, Dec 10 2020, 4:06 PM
Bonds Are Getting Ready to Move, Probably
Bonds are always moving, to some extent, but they haven't moved ou...
Thu, Dec 10 2020, 10:08 AM
One interesting theme that's emerging in December is that of weaker economic data actually hurting the bond market. This is certainly not in the conv...
Wed, Dec 9 2020, 4:47 PM
MBS-Specific Volatility Today, But No Major Change to Bigger-Picture
A fresh (or perhaps "slightly less stal...
Wed, Dec 9 2020, 10:05 AM
Last night, a new stimulus plan was floated to Pelosi by Mnuchin. In theory, it includes provisions for several democratic sticking points, thus offe...
Tue, Dec 8 2020, 4:47 PM
Bond Watchers Clearly Can't Choose The Wine in Front of ______
There are quite a few potential justification...
Tue, Dec 8 2020, 10:50 AM
By mid-November, bonds were rallying after hitting their weakest levels since the start of the pandemic. Due to the timing (i.e. heading into a holid...
Mon, Dec 7 2020, 4:19 PM
Bond Market Threats on Hold For Now, But Still Lurking
Brexit-related headlines helped the bond market recov...
Mon, Dec 7 2020, 9:48 AM
It was impossible to avoid Brexit-related headlines in 2016. Indeed, they were the driving force behind Treasury yields hitting new all-time lows at ...
Fri, Dec 4 2020, 6:03 PM
Big Bond Spike, Mortgage Rate Defiance, Lock or Float?
Today was characterized by an aggressive spike in 10y...
Fri, Dec 4 2020, 10:45 AM
The cause and effect relationship between NFP (the "non-farm payrolls" component of the big jobs report) and the bond market is a tale as old as time....
Thu, Dec 3 2020, 4:29 PM
Bonds Find Their Range Ahead of Jobs Report
The first 2 days of the month (yesterday and the day before) wer...
Thu, Dec 3 2020, 9:19 AM
What is a "dip buyer?" A "dip" refers to a drop in the price of an asset in the financial markets. In this case, a dip in bond prices would correspo...
Wed, Dec 2 2020, 4:06 PM
Breaking Down The Crazy Relationship of MBS, Mortgage Rates, and Treasuries
Bonds showed up to sell today--a...
Wed, Dec 2 2020, 9:25 AM
Following yesterday's sharp losses, the bond market didn't do much overnight, nor is it doing much to push back in the other direction this morning. ...
Tue, Dec 1 2020, 4:06 PM
Serious Sell-Off in Bonds. Time to Panic?
A new month brought in new momentum for the bond market--a lot of...
Tue, Dec 1 2020, 9:34 AM
Remember the end of July? We were worried that an entire month of gains in bonds could give way to a momentum shift in August. It did. September br...
Mon, Nov 30 2020, 4:19 PM
Uneventful Month-End Day For Bonds, But MBS Outperform
Final trial results for Moderna's vaccine (it's still...
Mon, Nov 30 2020, 10:08 AM
Thanksgiving week can't ever be fully trusted to provide an accurate glimpse of market momentum. In this year's case, it didn't really say much anywa...
Fri, Nov 27 2020, 9:21 AM
For the US bond market, the day after Thanksgiving is frequently a reflection of the EU bond market. Strength in EU bonds translated to 10yr yields im...
Wed, Nov 25 2020, 3:44 PM
Fed Minutes Hurt MBS, But Not Quite As Badly As It Seemed
Today's Fed Minutes offered a more detailed accoun...
Wed, Nov 25 2020, 10:12 AM
Here it is! The trading community's ONE guaranteed chance of the year for a 4.5-day weekend. Even though Wednesday is never officially designated as...
Tue, Nov 24 2020, 4:44 PM
Modest Weakness Persists as Markets Rotate Back Toward Risk
Whether we want to pin the blame on Trump's will...
Tue, Nov 24 2020, 1:30 PM
If you'd like to read the official FHFA press release, here you go, but here's the skinny on the new conforming loan limit of $548,250 for 2021, up fr...
Tue, Nov 24 2020, 10:02 AM
With very little by way of significant data or events as far as financial markets are concerned, today's most interesting revelation will be FHFA's an...
Mon, Nov 23 2020, 4:34 PM
Bond Market Weakness Introduce Risk of In-Range Bounce
Bonds were weaker overnight following European econom...
Mon, Nov 23 2020, 10:18 AM
Any time there's at least a moderate amount of movement in the overnight session, a consensus typically emerges as to the key driver of said movement....
Fri, Nov 20 2020, 3:43 PM
Bonds Are Boring Today, So Let's Talk About 1.5 UMBS
Treasuries did little to react to a smattering of poten...
Fri, Nov 20 2020, 11:18 AM
There are no significant events on the economic calendar today, and it is the last full trading day of the last full trading week before the winter ho...
Thu, Nov 19 2020, 4:24 PM
Tame Trading Day Leaves Outlook Intact
The bond market has been in a bullish consolidation pattern since las...
Thu, Nov 19 2020, 9:24 AM
The bond market has entered a period of consolidation after the recent run up toward 1.0% in 10yr yields. Whether we're looking at the market action ...
Wed, Nov 18 2020, 4:57 PM
Yields Give Up Early Lead But Remain Near 2-Week Lows
Today ended up being about as big of a roller coaster ...
Wed, Nov 18 2020, 10:33 AM
Bonds are making a case for a bigger picture bounce with 10yr yields turning a corner just before hitting the epic psychological barrier of 1.0%. Mor...
Tue, Nov 17 2020, 4:04 PM
Rates Running Out of Things to be Afraid Of?
Bonds improved today--mostly during the overnight trading sessi...
Tue, Nov 17 2020, 10:06 AM
In spite of yesterday's Moderna vaccine news, 10yr yields managed to end the day nearly unchanged. More impressively, they're heading into the curren...
Mon, Nov 16 2020, 3:36 PM
Bond Market Indecision After More Vaccine News
Another Monday, another early morning announcement of stagger...
Mon, Nov 16 2020, 10:20 AM
On back to back Monday mornings at 6:45am, both of the frontrunner covid vaccine trials have announced surprisingly strong late stage results (Pfizer ...
Fri, Nov 13 2020, 5:15 PM
Treasuries Reluctant to Add to Rally, But MBS Outperform.
It was a ho-hum day for bonds. Movement was minim...
MBS Market Alerts
