Wed, Jul 29 2020, 2:02 PM
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum ...
Wed, Jul 29 2020, 9:13 AM
Pound for pound, nothing has more power to move the bond market than Federal Reserve Announcements. We'll get one at 2pm today, but it remains to be...
Tue, Jul 28 2020, 3:42 PM
Nice Recovery But Resistance Remains
Rates were under pressure overnight with 10yr hitting the highest yield...
Tue, Jul 28 2020, 8:57 AM
Today is the second day of this week's prologue. We're getting a sense of the market's underlying biases, but we haven't yet arrived at the bigger-ti...
Mon, Jul 27 2020, 3:26 PM
Bonds Beginning The Week on The Defensive
After weeks of gradual strength in bonds, this week begins with ra...
Mon, Jul 27 2020, 8:46 AM
As far as weeks with plenty of potentially relevant scheduled events on tap, this one does not disappoint. The only question is how much markets will...
Fri, Jul 24 2020, 4:01 PM
Why The Range Risk in Treasuries Matters to Mortgages
We've been following .58% in 10yr yields for months as...
Fri, Jul 24 2020, 9:22 AM
There was a time in the very recent past when we could almost completely ignore the implications of 10yr Treasury yield movement on mortgage rates. W...
Thu, Jul 23 2020, 4:15 PM
Rates Having a Tough Time Breaking Lower, At Least For Now
We've been following .58% in 10yr yields for mont...
Thu, Jul 23 2020, 9:07 AM
We've talked a fair amount about the balance between fundamental and technical analysis recently. These are the two main schools of thought when ...
Wed, Jul 22 2020, 3:27 PM
A Small Risk in a Pile of Good News
For rates and the bond market, the news has been almost exclusively good...
Wed, Jul 22 2020, 9:14 AM
Remember the trade war? That was the thing that singlehandedly caused massive movement in the bond market in 2019. Trade tensions have been mountin...
Tue, Jul 21 2020, 4:03 PM
"Flat" is an Understatement
Recent trading activity lies in stark contrast to the drama seen earlier in 2020...
Tue, Jul 21 2020, 9:00 AM
Recent trading activity lies in stark contrast to the drama seen earlier in 2020. Even at the beginning of June, bonds still had an interesting (and ...
Mon, Jul 20 2020, 2:57 PM
How Low Can Rates Eventually Go?
Until further notice, we can expect to see the bond market drift in a fairl...
Mon, Jul 20 2020, 9:40 AM
The bond market begins yet another week with rates in a holding pattern at historic lows. With coronavirus being the primary motivation for rates, it...
Fri, Jul 17 2020, 3:06 PM
Very Uneventful Week in The Bigger Picture
Heading into this week, we were hoping to see some consensus betw...
Fri, Jul 17 2020, 8:59 AM
One of the market themes that has been most noticeable and most reliable post-covid is that of the "stock lever"--our in-house term for the phenomenon...
Thu, Jul 16 2020, 3:31 PM
The Downside of Ultra Low Rates
Actions and reactions are as true in the bond market as in the natural world...
Thu, Jul 16 2020, 8:31 AM
It used to be that rate watchers and mortgage originators could simply tune in to the economic data on any given day and expect a fairly logical and...
Wed, Jul 15 2020, 3:27 PM
Stocks and Bonds Confirm Hyperfocus on Covid Outlook
Coronavirus has been with us for so long and has caused...
Wed, Jul 15 2020, 8:58 AM
Coronavirus has been with us for so long and has caused such a huge paradigm shift that it's easy to lose sight of its importance as a day-to-day mark...
Tue, Jul 14 2020, 3:36 PM
Bonds Surprisingly Resilient After Last Week's Scare
After last week's somewhat scary move higher in rates, ...
Tue, Jul 14 2020, 8:49 AM
Once again, stocks and bonds were largely flat in the overnight session and domestic trading begins with both sides of the market close to yesterday's...
Mon, Jul 13 2020, 3:38 PM
Fundamental Hope But Technical Caution
Fundamentals and technicals represent the two main schools of thought...
Mon, Jul 13 2020, 8:51 AM
Fundamentals and technicals represent the two main schools of thought when it comes to market analysis. Fundamental analysis focuses on all of thi...
Fri, Jul 10 2020, 4:28 PM
Big Scary Reversal in Bonds (Spoiler Alert: It Wasn't That Scary)
Just as bonds were settling into a nice ne...
Fri, Jul 10 2020, 9:04 AM
Trend channels in financial markets are some of the most basic forms of analysis. They consist of lines drawn along the highs and lows of a charted s...
Thu, Jul 9 2020, 4:03 PM
Bonds Making a Case For a New Trend
We've talked a lot about the linear uptrend in bond yields that began in...
Thu, Jul 9 2020, 9:18 AM
We've talked a lot about the massive rift that opened up between mortgage rates and MBS yields as the pandemic hit markets several months ago. MBS yi...
Wed, Jul 8 2020, 4:07 PM
Bonds Pull Back, But It's Still a Waiting Game
Despite some modest weakness to begin the day, bonds remain s...
Wed, Jul 8 2020, 8:49 AM
There really wasn't much by way of riveting new developments on the radar heading into this week. A smattering of Fed speakers and relatively inconse...
Tue, Jul 7 2020, 4:28 PM
Record High MBS Prices, Record Low Rates. What Next?
Bonds and rates clearly aren't looking at economic data...
Tue, Jul 7 2020, 8:52 AM
Conventional wisdom holds that stocks tend to do better when bonds do worse. The logic is simple. When investors feel more optimistic or more risk-t...
Mon, Jul 6 2020, 3:44 PM
Record High MBS Prices, Record Low Rates. What Next?
Bonds and rates clearly aren't looking at economic data...
Mon, Jul 6 2020, 8:50 AM
Last week ended with a paradoxical reaction to a jobs report that was much stronger than expected. Although bonds did lose ground at first, they end...
Thu, Jul 2 2020, 3:26 PM
Record-Breaking Job Gains, But Bonds Ultimately Improve
Last month's jobs report shattered records, both for...
Thu, Jul 2 2020, 8:19 AM
Last month's jobs report shattered records, both for the outright level of job creation (2.509m) and for the gap between job growth and forecasts. ...
Wed, Jul 1 2020, 4:36 PM
Limited Reaction to Headlines and Fed Minutes
After a quiet trading day yesterday, today proved to be even q...
Wed, Jul 1 2020, 3:32 PM
The minutes from the most recent Fed meeting were released today. While there's not much left to be said when they've already been so clear about kee...
Wed, Jul 1 2020, 8:37 AM
After a very slow start on Monday, yesterday's month-end trading session proved to be more consequential for Treasuries with yields ultimately rising ...
Tue, Jun 30 2020, 4:46 PM
Surprisingly Quiet Quarter-End Trading. No Objections Here
The last trading day of any given month (especia...
Mon, Jun 29 2020, 2:59 PM
Lock vs Float Considerations With Rates at All-Time Lows
Stocks and bond yields are still in holding pattern...
Mon, Jun 29 2020, 8:51 AM
This will be a deceptively informative week for financial markets. The biggest consideration continues to be the exponential growth of covid cases in...
Fri, Jun 26 2020, 4:41 PM
The Trend is Officially Broken. Welcome Back To The Range
Bond yields moved lower today, thus breaking out ...
Fri, Jun 26 2020, 8:31 AM
Although markets are still sideways relative to the bigger volatility of the previous 3 weeks, bond yields have trickled lower this week. This brought...
Thu, Jun 25 2020, 2:50 PM
Lots of Indecision, But The Outcome Should Make Sense
Both stocks and bonds are trading sideways after takin...
Thu, Jun 25 2020, 9:08 AM
Let's get the housekeeping out of the way first. With so much talk in the news about the coronavirus effect on GDP, I figured I'd point out that toda...
Wed, Jun 24 2020, 3:28 PM
Rising Rates Thwarted By Coronavirus Concerns
Stop us if you've heard this one before, but rates are low due...
Wed, Jun 24 2020, 9:30 AM
Stop us if you've heard this one before, but rates are low due to an unprecedented global emergency. Unless coronavirus situations deteriorates signif...
MBS Market Alerts
