Mon, Jul 13 2020, 8:51 AM
Fundamentals and technicals represent the two main schools of thought when it comes to market analysis. Fundamental analysis focuses on all of thi...
Fri, Jul 10 2020, 4:28 PM
Big Scary Reversal in Bonds (Spoiler Alert: It Wasn't That Scary)
Just as bonds were settling into a nice ne...
Fri, Jul 10 2020, 9:04 AM
Trend channels in financial markets are some of the most basic forms of analysis. They consist of lines drawn along the highs and lows of a charted s...
Thu, Jul 9 2020, 4:03 PM
Bonds Making a Case For a New Trend
We've talked a lot about the linear uptrend in bond yields that began in...
Thu, Jul 9 2020, 9:18 AM
We've talked a lot about the massive rift that opened up between mortgage rates and MBS yields as the pandemic hit markets several months ago. MBS yi...
Wed, Jul 8 2020, 4:07 PM
Bonds Pull Back, But It's Still a Waiting Game
Despite some modest weakness to begin the day, bonds remain s...
Wed, Jul 8 2020, 8:49 AM
There really wasn't much by way of riveting new developments on the radar heading into this week. A smattering of Fed speakers and relatively inconse...
Tue, Jul 7 2020, 4:28 PM
Record High MBS Prices, Record Low Rates. What Next?
Bonds and rates clearly aren't looking at economic data...
Tue, Jul 7 2020, 8:52 AM
Conventional wisdom holds that stocks tend to do better when bonds do worse. The logic is simple. When investors feel more optimistic or more risk-t...
Mon, Jul 6 2020, 3:44 PM
Record High MBS Prices, Record Low Rates. What Next?
Bonds and rates clearly aren't looking at economic data...
Mon, Jul 6 2020, 8:50 AM
Last week ended with a paradoxical reaction to a jobs report that was much stronger than expected. Although bonds did lose ground at first, they end...
Thu, Jul 2 2020, 3:26 PM
Record-Breaking Job Gains, But Bonds Ultimately Improve
Last month's jobs report shattered records, both for...
Thu, Jul 2 2020, 8:19 AM
Last month's jobs report shattered records, both for the outright level of job creation (2.509m) and for the gap between job growth and forecasts. ...
Wed, Jul 1 2020, 4:36 PM
Limited Reaction to Headlines and Fed Minutes
After a quiet trading day yesterday, today proved to be even q...
Wed, Jul 1 2020, 3:32 PM
The minutes from the most recent Fed meeting were released today. While there's not much left to be said when they've already been so clear about kee...
Wed, Jul 1 2020, 8:37 AM
After a very slow start on Monday, yesterday's month-end trading session proved to be more consequential for Treasuries with yields ultimately rising ...
Tue, Jun 30 2020, 4:46 PM
Surprisingly Quiet Quarter-End Trading. No Objections Here
The last trading day of any given month (especia...
Mon, Jun 29 2020, 2:59 PM
Lock vs Float Considerations With Rates at All-Time Lows
Stocks and bond yields are still in holding pattern...
Mon, Jun 29 2020, 8:51 AM
This will be a deceptively informative week for financial markets. The biggest consideration continues to be the exponential growth of covid cases in...
Fri, Jun 26 2020, 4:41 PM
The Trend is Officially Broken. Welcome Back To The Range
Bond yields moved lower today, thus breaking out ...
Fri, Jun 26 2020, 8:31 AM
Although markets are still sideways relative to the bigger volatility of the previous 3 weeks, bond yields have trickled lower this week. This brought...
Thu, Jun 25 2020, 2:50 PM
Lots of Indecision, But The Outcome Should Make Sense
Both stocks and bonds are trading sideways after takin...
Thu, Jun 25 2020, 9:08 AM
Let's get the housekeeping out of the way first. With so much talk in the news about the coronavirus effect on GDP, I figured I'd point out that toda...
Wed, Jun 24 2020, 3:28 PM
Rising Rates Thwarted By Coronavirus Concerns
Stop us if you've heard this one before, but rates are low due...
Wed, Jun 24 2020, 9:30 AM
Stop us if you've heard this one before, but rates are low due to an unprecedented global emergency. Unless coronavirus situations deteriorates signif...
Tue, Jun 23 2020, 4:16 PM
Decent Day For MBS But Broader Trend Remains a Concern
Rates are low. Unless coronavirus wins (or looks like...
Tue, Jun 23 2020, 8:42 AM
We've definitely seen Treasuries improve relative to MBS more often than not in the past week or two. The most obvious driving force behind that ph...
Mon, Jun 22 2020, 3:06 PM
Locking vs Floating Remains a Question of Covid vs The Economy
Rates are low. Unless coronavirus wins, rates...
Mon, Jun 22 2020, 8:55 AM
The bond market is starting the day fairly flat. Each of the past 4 trading days has seen yields end lower than they began. And over the past two we...
Fri, Jun 19 2020, 4:33 PM
Putting MBS Underperformance in Perspective
Rates are low. Unless coronavirus wins, rates should continue to...
Thu, Jun 18 2020, 3:10 PM
Sideways Victory For Bonds and Rates
We've been tracking both a sideways trend and an uptrend in bond yields...
Thu, Jun 18 2020, 8:34 AM
The bond market had been very flat with yields near all time lows since mid-April. If there was any predisposition toward strength or weakness during...
Wed, Jun 17 2020, 4:07 PM
Which Way Do We Go?
Markets continue trying to sort out the prospects for a recovery vs the risk of covid-19...
Wed, Jun 17 2020, 8:35 AM
Perspective is always important when considering market movement. Most decent charting software or any responsibly-created custom chart will scale th...
Tue, Jun 16 2020, 3:58 PM
Economic Hope Squares Off Against Virus Fears (Again)
Markets continue trying to sort out the prospects for ...
Tue, Jun 16 2020, 8:27 AM
Last week saw stock prices and bond yields fall as markets got back in touch with their recent habit of trading primarily on the coronavirus outlook. ...
Mon, Jun 15 2020, 3:34 PM
Virus Fears Back in Focus For Markets
Rather than the gradual decline that many had hoped for, we're instead...
Mon, Jun 15 2020, 8:54 AM
The week begins with global financial markets once again defending against coronavirus risks. Case counts were flat in April and most of May. The im...
Fri, Jun 12 2020, 4:55 PM
2 Wild Weeks That Mostly Cancel Each Other Out
What a difference a week makes! Last week, the order of the ...
Fri, Jun 12 2020, 9:38 AM
Yesterday, after 4 straight days of improvements, the bond market easily returned to the trading range that had been intact for 6 weeks (until it was ...
Thu, Jun 11 2020, 4:53 PM
Bonds Back in Business; More New All-Time Low Rates
What a difference a week makes! Last week, the order of...
Thu, Jun 11 2020, 8:43 AM
We'll have to be careful about thinking or saying that bonds have "confirmed" any sort of shift when it comes to established ranges or trends. The la...
Wed, Jun 10 2020, 3:42 PM
Fed Delivers. Bonds Surge
As far as the Fed is concerned, bonds don't have to stress out about rates rising ...
Wed, Jun 10 2020, 2:03 PM
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum ...
Wed, Jun 10 2020, 9:09 AM
The word "roll" has a few meanings around here. For those who participate in MBS markets at a higher level, "dollar rolls" are actual tradeable posit...
Tue, Jun 9 2020, 4:42 PM
Bond Rally or a Token Bounce After Last Week's Rout?
Last week saw rates rise at the fastest pace in months ...
Tue, Jun 9 2020, 8:43 AM
Last week saw rates rise at the fastest pace in months in an apparent lift-off from an extended stint near all-time lows. Now the current week looks v...
Mon, Jun 8 2020, 3:34 PM
Surprisingly Strong Day Made Possible By Last Week's Rout
After last week's rout at the hands of stronger ec...
Mon, Jun 8 2020, 8:53 AM
Bonds are coming off their roughest week in months with yields rising at their quickest pace since the mega-volatility seen during the panicked sell...
Fri, Jun 5 2020, 4:04 PM
That Escalated Quickly, But MBS Recovered Fairly Nicely
After weeks and weeks (6, to be specific) of extraor...
MBS Market Alerts
