Tue, Sep 1 2020, 4:05 PM
New Month, New Trend?
We often see a clear bias toward strength or weakness during any given month in the bo...
Tue, Sep 1 2020, 9:06 AM
While it's definitely not a hard and fast rule, we often see a clear bias toward strength or weakness during any given month in the bond market. July...
Mon, Aug 31 2020, 3:44 PM
Bonds Making Case For Friendly Technical Bounce
Last Friday, we were already eyeing the technical ceiling at...
Mon, Aug 31 2020, 9:28 AM
Just like early June, we're once again forced to consider that several weeks of upward movement in yields means the lows are behind us for now. Just ...
Fri, Aug 28 2020, 4:45 PM
Nice Recovery Today, But Is It a Trap?
If the Fed is doubling down on its inflation goals, it makes sense fo...
Fri, Aug 28 2020, 10:06 AM
Yesterday was "interesting," to say the least. The Fed surprised markets with another unscheduled policy update and bonds traded accordingly. The su...
Thu, Aug 27 2020, 3:42 PM
Has Everything Changed After Powell Speech?
Powell's speech was the only Fed communication on the calendar t...
Thu, Aug 27 2020, 8:51 AM
If you don't want to read to the end to get the answer posed in the headline, here is a spoiler:
Yes, a new framework is both good and bad for bonds...
Wed, Aug 26 2020, 4:21 PM
LLPA Impact vs Powell Speech. Time to Lock?
Much has been made (by news media... not bond market participan...
Wed, Aug 26 2020, 9:58 AM
There's a global pandemic. On the one hand, it seems to be improving. On the other, it's responsible for a potentially permanent shift in the US lab...
Tue, Aug 25 2020, 4:21 PM
New Curveball as LLPA Just Got Delayed Until Dec 1
There are two huddle videos today. The newest and most r...
Tue, Aug 25 2020, 10:08 AM
Any conversation about momentum, victory, or defeat in the bond market must be prefaced with the acknowledgment that we're dealing with what would his...
Mon, Aug 24 2020, 3:49 PM
More Defensive But Not Without Hope
2 weeks ago, a heavy slate of supply contributed to small-scale panic in...
Mon, Aug 24 2020, 10:21 AM
Last week did a nice job of confirming a ceiling in Treasury yields after the previous week saw rates move sharply higher. At the same time the S&P...
Fri, Aug 21 2020, 5:17 PM
A Week of Reassurance For The Bond Market
Last week saw the first major break higher after a calm, sustained...
Fri, Aug 21 2020, 9:19 AM
Coronavirus obviously ushered in an era of record low rates. The ongoing challenges and uncertainties are fairly well understood. They have a wide s...
Thu, Aug 20 2020, 4:49 PM
MBS Underperforming Treasuries, But Broader Trends Are Decent
The mortgage market continues coping with the ...
Thu, Aug 20 2020, 10:01 AM
Realistically, Europe has been as big of a friend to US bond markets as the Fed. If it weren't for Greek concerns and the mounting systemic crisis, U...
Wed, Aug 19 2020, 4:43 PM
Fed Minutes and LLPA Hangover Hurting Rates
Mortgage rates have been quite rebellious in 2020 when it comes ...
Wed, Aug 19 2020, 9:02 AM
I talked yesterday about rates "reconnecting with the bond market," and that's an assertion that needs some more clarification on several levels. By ...
Tue, Aug 18 2020, 4:55 PM
Rates Are Reconnecting With Bond Market Movement
After last week's LLPA news, lenders pulled back pricing fo...
Tue, Aug 18 2020, 9:29 AM
It's age-old conventional wisdom. Buy stocks, sell bonds, vice versa, risk-on vs risk-off. One of the most common questions I receive over the years...
Mon, Aug 17 2020, 3:57 PM
Mortgage Market Looking For a Better Week For Two Reasons
Last week was unpleasant in the mortgage world, to...
Mon, Aug 17 2020, 9:25 AM
Last week was unpleasant in the mortgage world, to say the least. Rates suffered a double whammy due to the surprise 50bp LLPA on refis and the trend ...
Fri, Aug 14 2020, 5:47 PM
Boring Day For Bonds, But Tension Remains For Mortgages
Rates continued reeling (depending on the lender) fr...
Fri, Aug 14 2020, 9:57 AM
First thing's first, any conversation about rates in a mortgage market context would be incomplete without considering this week's regulatory drama. ...
Thu, Aug 13 2020, 5:42 PM
Mortgage Market Rocked by Instant Doubling of Regulatory Fees
Consider this: the average guaranty fee (charg...
Thu, Aug 13 2020, 12:14 PM
This began as my normal daily "day ahead" article, but as you can see based on the time of day and the following content, it turned into something els...
Wed, Aug 12 2020, 8:59 PM
In what can only be described as a cash grab, Fannie and Freddie's regulator just announced a new tax on refinances. Granted, it's not technically a ...
Wed, Aug 12 2020, 3:33 PM
Bond Market Breakout is Here (The Bad One)
For days--and especially since last Friday--we've been increasing...
Wed, Aug 12 2020, 9:55 AM
There is a ton of uncertainty about rates and the economy in the bigger picture. That uncertainty jives with a broad sideways trend in an all-time lo...
Tue, Aug 11 2020, 4:23 PM
Bond Market Breakout is Here (The Bad One)
For days--and especially since last Friday--we've been increasing...
Tue, Aug 11 2020, 10:12 AM
For days--and especially since last Friday--we've been increasingly worried that the 2-month bond rally was running out of steam and at risk of a reve...
Mon, Aug 10 2020, 4:13 PM
Treasuries Looking Nervous, But MBS Outperform
Treasury yields are attempting to move up and over the techni...
Mon, Aug 10 2020, 9:22 AM
August began with bonds pushing several positive boundaries. 10yr yields had just broken a technical floor at .57//58 and 2.0 UMBS were enjoying a su...
Fri, Aug 7 2020, 3:01 PM
More Defensive After Jobs Report, But Not Necessarily Because of it
The jobs report was hard-pressed to live...
Fri, Aug 7 2020, 8:29 AM
No other piece of scheduled monthly economic data has a better track record of influencing the bond market than nonfarm payrolls. There are stretches...
Thu, Aug 6 2020, 4:49 PM
Bonds Generally Consolidating Ahead of Jobs Report
MBS were higher today, but for the week as a whole, they'...
Thu, Aug 6 2020, 10:07 AM
Yesterday's bond market weakness prompted a conversation about the limits of the current rally. It went a little something like this (<----that's a l...
Wed, Aug 5 2020, 4:07 PM
Is The Rally Meeting Resistance or Just Consolidation?
With modest overnight weakness and a small negative r...
Wed, Aug 5 2020, 9:31 AM
With modest overnight weakness and a small negative reaction to this morning's headlines (ADP and Treasury issuance), bonds may be encountering some m...
Tue, Aug 4 2020, 4:11 PM
Bonds Continue Pushing The Record Pace, But MBS Are Lagging
Yesterday we asked what would come next for bond...
Tue, Aug 4 2020, 9:49 AM
While there's no way to know how the day will wrap up for the MBS market, we know how it's starting out. We also know how 4 of the past 5 days have s...
Mon, Aug 3 2020, 4:31 PM
Bonds Defend New Territory
Now that bonds have broken through previous resistance levels (.58 in 10yr yields...
Mon, Aug 3 2020, 9:23 AM
Now that bonds have broken through previous resistance levels (.58 in 10yr yields and 103.00 in 2.0 UMBS), what comes next? Rather than look for fast-...
Fri, Jul 31 2020, 5:04 PM
All-Time Levels All Around. Here's How To Play It
Another day, another opportunity for MBS prices to hit re...
Fri, Jul 31 2020, 8:50 AM
There's no doubt you'll see excellent mortgage rates when this morning's rate sheets come out. Many lenders will be at or below their previous all-ti...
Thu, Jul 30 2020, 3:55 PM
Bonds Break The Range, But Mortgage Rates Are Dragging Their Feet
The simple version of the story: mortgage ...
Thu, Jul 30 2020, 8:21 AM
Cases are made all the time. Some of them are surefire victories from the start. Others lack the evidence required for a compelling conclusion. The...
Wed, Jul 29 2020, 4:34 PM
Bonds Break Key Levels After Fed
Both MBS and Treasuries were right on the edge of their recent ranges headi...
MBS Market Alerts
