Fri, Jun 5 2020, 8:18 AM
After weeks and weeks (6, to be specific) of extraordinarily calm and narrow trading ranges in ultra-low-yield territory, the bond market has suddenly...
Thu, Jun 4 2020, 4:15 PM
Big Risks Ahead For Rates and Some Solid Opporunities Right Now
Treasury yields broke one important ceiling ...
Thu, Jun 4 2020, 8:50 AM
Yesterday's econ data caused a stir in the bond market, forcing yields to break above a key ceiling at .74%. Can they make it back below that ceiling...
Wed, Jun 3 2020, 3:54 PM
Econ Data Causing Bonds to Reconsider Commitment to Super Low Yields
Bonds haven't been interested in econ d...
Wed, Jun 3 2020, 9:23 AM
It's the first Wednesday of the month and thus time for ADP Employment data. The stated intention of this report is to predict the final revision of ...
Tue, Jun 2 2020, 3:11 PM
Here's The Only Reason Mortgage Rates Have Moved Lower Recently
"Because they were so much higher than they...
Tue, Jun 2 2020, 9:20 AM
Today is the lightest of the week in terms of scheduled market movers on the econ calendar (there really aren't any to speak of unless you count the N...
Mon, Jun 1 2020, 2:57 PM
There's no way to predict the future for rates and markets, but there are occasionally tactical opportunities.
Mon, Jun 1 2020, 8:47 AM
A resilient performance at the end of last week means that bonds have easily staked a claim to a sideways range that's been intact for more than 2 mon...
Fri, May 29 2020, 8:52 AM
The next Fed announcement is 1.5 weeks away and so it's time to start ramping up expectations for the details of the Fed's official QE announcement. ...
Thu, May 28 2020, 9:14 AM
The market reaction to coronavirus made a mess of the relationship between Treasuries and MBS (and between MBS and mortgage rates for that matter). T...
Wed, May 27 2020, 9:17 AM
Today's first chart shows the trend we've been following in 10yr Treasury yields. It is pointed in an unfriendly direction (i.e. "up"), but at a fair...
Tue, May 26 2020, 9:07 AM
No need to overcomplicate the current narrative: the overall financial market is attempting to balance the reopening of the economy with the risk of C...
Fri, May 22 2020, 9:37 AM
Treasuries started out stronger after overnight drama between China and Hong Kong caused a "risk-off" trade (i.e. sell stocks, buy bonds). MBS contin...
Thu, May 21 2020, 9:03 AM
Treasuries held onto yesterday's gains in the overnight session and are starting the day in slightly better shape (MBS are roughly unchanged). This m...
Wed, May 20 2020, 9:50 AM
I've been mentioning MBS outperformance and underperformance quite a bit recently, but what do these terms really mean and why do we care?
First off...
Tue, May 19 2020, 9:17 AM
Yesterday was pretty rough for bond markets as 10yr yields rose the better part of 10bps in fairly short order. It was the worst day of selling in ...
Mon, May 18 2020, 9:05 AM
Bond markets will close early this Friday and will remain fully closed next Monday for the Memorial Day holiday. 3.5-day weekends can often see a shi...
Fri, May 15 2020, 9:17 AM
As recently as April 21st, the fate of the mortgage market was still highly uncertain and that uncertainty was readily apparent in the ridiculously w...
Thu, May 14 2020, 8:58 AM
The recent trading range has been reinforced after a strong show of support in this week's Treasury auctions. Treasuries were under more pressure hea...
Wed, May 13 2020, 9:00 AM
In ancient financial market times (let's say any time before 2009), a massive economic shock resulted in a pervasive move lower in both stock prices a...
Tue, May 12 2020, 8:40 AM
2.5 UMBS coupons last traded at 103.5 (103-16) yesterday. This morning, they are down to 103.31 (103-11), which is roughly a 20bp drop. But the char...
Mon, May 11 2020, 8:51 AM
Bonds lost ground last week, overall, with 10yr yields rising the better part of 10bps. MBS lost ground as well, but not UMBS 2.0 coupons. These are...
Fri, May 8 2020, 8:32 AM
The Employment Situation (the big jobs report out today) is the single most important piece of economic data on any given month--at least it normally ...
Thu, May 7 2020, 8:55 AM
Despite an improvement in COVID numbers, relative optimism in stocks, an ongoing glut of corporate bond issuance, and freshly reinforced realizations ...
Wed, May 6 2020, 10:44 AM
When someone asks a salty old bond market person why rates are doing what they'd doing, they might get a seemingly dismissive reply: "supply and deman...
Tue, May 5 2020, 9:38 AM
Despite being in a narrow range in the bigger picture, 10yr Treasury yields have generally been moving moderately higher since April 21st. MBS have m...
Mon, May 4 2020, 10:28 AM
The Federal Reserve's capacity and willingness to engage in aggressive easing measures is often described as a "bazooka." This likens it to an imprec...
Fri, May 1 2020, 10:46 AM
In the day ahead, bonds will digest manufacturing PMI data, both from IHS-Markit and ISM. While these PMIs are typically big market movers--potential...
Thu, Apr 30 2020, 8:47 AM
January, February, and especially March were wild months for bond market volatility. Coronavirus was increasingly responsible for that volatility dur...
Wed, Apr 29 2020, 10:42 AM
This morning, GDP came out at -4.8%, the lowest reading since Q1, 2009. The Fed announcement and press conference will be out this afternoon. But th...
Tue, Apr 28 2020, 9:24 AM
Trillions of dollars of stimulus on the Fiscal side and many additional trillions of liquidity on the monetary side of the equation are helping stocks...
Mon, Apr 27 2020, 9:16 AM
After weeks and weeks spent discussing the impacts on growth surrounding coronavirus, we're only now getting to the very first release of GDP for Q1. ...
Fri, Apr 24 2020, 11:34 AM
Given the size and scope of the unemployment/forbearance issue, mortgage investors have been rightfully concerned about the timeliness of payments, an...
Thu, Apr 23 2020, 10:03 AM
I'm making an executive decision. It's time to simplify the discussion even more than we already have when it comes to what's freaking the mortgage...
Wed, Apr 22 2020, 1:24 PM
The initial House draft of the CARES Act included a provision that Fed and Treasury would "extend credit to mortgage servicers that have liquidity nee...
Wed, Apr 22 2020, 9:36 AM
While there may be a good amount of drama and suspense when it comes to watching coronavirus take its toll on the economy, there's no mystery. This ...
Tue, Apr 21 2020, 9:22 AM
Given that yields are in an extremely low range with no past precedent, it's easy to glance at the chart, shrug one's shoulders, and conclude "oh well...
Mon, Apr 20 2020, 9:53 AM
This week is relatively limited in terms of economic data. We will get our first look at big home sales reports for March (both "New" and "Existing")...
Fri, Apr 17 2020, 3:21 PM
There was a sharp sell-off in the bond market on Friday afternoon--at least relative to the day's relatively calm trading patterns--as the Fed once ag...
Fri, Apr 17 2020, 9:46 AM
If I accidentally jinxed it, the damage was already done in yesterday's MBS Huddle video, so we might as well talk about it. "Talk about what," you m...
Thu, Apr 16 2020, 10:25 AM
Coronavirus has made for some of the biggest market movement and volatility in the history of financial markets. It's also resulted in a wide range o...
Wed, Apr 15 2020, 8:29 AM
There's no question that financial markets have done a great deal to price-in the anticipated economic impact of coronavirus, but have they done enoug...
Tue, Apr 14 2020, 11:09 AM
There's a bit of 20/20 hindsight in the observation that MBS strength could/should only last for so long before experiencing a bit of a correction. I...
Mon, Apr 13 2020, 10:10 AM
Markets have already shown how well they understand the uniquely massive economic toll taken by coronavirus. That's why we're able to see things like...
Thu, Apr 9 2020, 3:37 PM
The Fed announced new lending programs totaling $2.3 trillion this morning. The Fed had recently alluded to "additional tools" at its disposal to sup...
Wed, Apr 8 2020, 12:08 PM
Any discussion about the challenges faced by a particular industry or even by a particular household requires the same acknowledgement right up front...
Mon, Apr 6 2020, 10:58 AM
Here's this week's Fed MBS Purchase Schedule.
The daily amount is down from a recent peak of $50 bln to $25 bln . So does that mean the Fed is o...
Thu, Apr 2 2020, 10:41 AM
Many people have "expert sources" they rely on for insight to potential market movers. I understand this quite well. On the one hand , I used to be...
Wed, Apr 1 2020, 9:43 AM
This morning's ADP Employment showed a loss of 27k jobs. Forecasts called for a loss of 150k jobs compared to last month's report that was strongly p...
MBS Market Alerts
