Tue, Jan 30 2018, 9:35 AM
Bonds enter the 2nd day of the week without any major reprieve in the selling trend. That trend kicked into a higher gear yesterday, prompting us to ...
Mon, Jan 29 2018, 5:26 PM
In a perfect world, massive sell-offs in bond markets would have logical explanations--the sort of tidy cause and effect relationships often seen fo...
Mon, Jan 29 2018, 10:40 AM
"Perfect storm" is an overused term, and there other, more colorful descriptors I'd use to describe the storm that's been battering bond markets for...
Fri, Jan 26 2018, 4:59 PM
Last week, I noted that the current week wasn't likely to see bond yields rise because we'd just had 3 straight weeks of clear moves higher. We don...
Fri, Jan 26 2018, 9:56 AM
Today's chart is complicated at first glance, but I'll walk you through it step by step. I'll also cover it in today's Huddle video for MBS Live me...
Thu, Jan 25 2018, 5:23 PM
There were several exciting lead changes in today's game for bond markets. The early inning were devoted to parsing the European Central Bank's (EC...
Thu, Jan 25 2018, 8:49 AM
Corrections are one of the trading themes we frequently discuss when there is broader momentum in either direction. In its simplest form, a correcti...
Wed, Jan 24 2018, 4:27 PM
Yesterday was nice while it lasted. Against a sea of redness, it stood out like a beautiful green shoreline. Unfortunately, that shoreline turned ...
Wed, Jan 24 2018, 9:56 AM
Today is shaping up to be one of those days where we start off with a large overnight bond market movement followed by a rush of attempted explanatio...
Tue, Jan 23 2018, 4:27 PM
It took 3 consecutive days of pushing into the weakest levels in more than 3 years for bond markets to figure out how to rally by more than a token ...
Tue, Jan 23 2018, 8:49 AM
Perhaps you're already well aware that Haruhiko Kuroda is the head of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) , and a Ben Bernanke of sorts when it comes to bringing...
Mon, Jan 22 2018, 5:31 PM
Bonds ended in the green today, albeit just barely . Normally that wouldn't be a bad thing, but today's example leaves a bit to be desired.
I sho...
Mon, Jan 22 2018, 9:05 AM
Markets closed on Friday with a government shutdown still in limbo. Ostensibly, that meant the reaction in stocks and bonds wouldn't be fully seen un...
Fri, Jan 19 2018, 7:27 PM
Today's sell-off brought 10yr yields to their highest levels since the middle of 2014 (when they were on their way down following the taper tantrum....
Fri, Jan 19 2018, 9:13 AM
Yesterday's recap is a good read if you didn't happen to catch it. Here's a link.
In general, there are 2 things going on with rates right now. ...
Thu, Jan 18 2018, 4:49 PM
Well... at least things are interesting . The winter holidays are always a challenge from an analytical and market-watching standpoint. It seems li...
Thu, Jan 18 2018, 9:37 AM
Is the decades-long bull market in bonds over? I imagine we'll be talking about this sort of thing every time yields spike to multi-month highs and...
Wed, Jan 17 2018, 4:42 PM
Last week's bounce at a ceiling of 2.60% (twice, essentially) was enough for some DEFENSIVE hope. In other words, it introduced the possibility of th...
Wed, Jan 17 2018, 9:07 AM
There's bad news and not-quite-as-bad news. Longer-term bonds (the stuff we care about) are either in a modest, steady, long-term uptrend (in rate)...
Tue, Jan 16 2018, 5:00 PM
Had it not been for a fairly abrupt sell-off in stocks (the first big day of losses in 2018, and the biggest open-to-close sell-off since late August ...
Tue, Jan 16 2018, 9:36 AM
Don't get too excited. Despite a few close calls and false alarms, bonds managed to close below last Tuesday's highs for three days in a row. Now th...
Fri, Jan 12 2018, 7:58 PM
I laughed out loud today--something I rarely do when reading typed words--after MBS Live cornerstone Sung Kim quipped "thank God China is buying today...
Fri, Jan 12 2018, 8:34 AM
A majority of market participants (or their mentors) were steeped in the extraordinary inflation/rate volatility of the late 70's and early 80's. As ...
Thu, Jan 11 2018, 4:50 PM
Yesterday morning's news regarding China potentially buying fewer (or selling) US Treasuries has been a big talking point. While most pundits and eve...
Thu, Jan 11 2018, 9:18 AM
Yesterday, the possibility of China decreasing its purchases of US Treasuries was all anyone could talk about . Amid a sea of voices declaring this ...
Wed, Jan 10 2018, 5:37 PM
Yesterday: Japan . Today: China . Stakeholders, journalists, and even a fairly wide swath of bond traders are eager to make sense of the past 2 da...
Wed, Jan 10 2018, 9:02 AM
The proverbial "you know what" just got real. We'd been waiting for the first big dose of bond market momentum following months of consolidation head...
Tue, Jan 9 2018, 5:43 PM
In certain circles, much was made of overnight news that the Bank of Japan would be buying fewer bonds. That's about as far as most news stories de...
Tue, Jan 9 2018, 10:11 AM
This commentary was delayed this morning due to several alerts posted on MBS Live. If you're not a member and haven't checked it out, you should .
...
Mon, Jan 8 2018, 5:19 PM
Bonds began the day in slightly stronger territory (emphasis on "slightly"). The overnight session was calm and thinly traded with Japan being out of...
Mon, Jan 8 2018, 10:20 AM
Not to be confused with the consolidative trend seen in Q4, 2017, there's been a slightly more negative consolidation underway in the last few weeks. ...
Fri, Jan 5 2018, 5:33 PM
Harker and the curve... It's not a song or a morning radio show.
It's a reference to the Fed's Patrick Harker commenting on the yield curve toda...
Fri, Jan 5 2018, 9:37 AM
I had my doubts at times, after some of this week's volatility. I thought perhaps that bonds were showing signs that the "new year momentum" (a notic...
Thu, Jan 4 2018, 4:44 PM
The overnight session and early morning hours saw a good, old-fashioned economic-data-driven sell-off in bond markets. Asian and European data were...
Thu, Jan 4 2018, 9:42 AM
If you happen to read and retain most of what I write, you'll have noticed that toward the end of December, I increasingly mentioned that it wouldn't ...
Wed, Jan 3 2018, 4:56 PM
Bond markets improved overnight, but were under pressure in the morning after stronger ISM Manufacturing data and then again following the release o...
Wed, Jan 3 2018, 9:37 AM
Today brings the first significant economic data of the new year in the form of ISM Manufacturing at 10am. During times when markets are actively res...
Tue, Jan 2 2018, 5:43 PM
Bond markets have had worse days , but the average day is definitely better than today. 10yr yields moved more than 5bps higher, bringing them to 2....
Tue, Jan 2 2018, 8:42 AM
New Years Day doesn't always fall on a day that allows for a 3.5-day weekend. When it does (as it did this year), the first day back to work tends to...
Fri, Dec 29 2017, 3:58 PM
There were no significant economic reports today, no major headlines, and no other events that prompted movement in bond markets. As is often the cas...
Fri, Dec 29 2017, 9:35 AM
Markets will close early today (2pm ET for bonds), but most of 2017's trading needs have long since been handled for most traders. Case in point, th...
Thu, Dec 28 2017, 6:01 PM
Bond markets sent a fairly clear message today: don't expect much tomorrow. Trading activity is dying down in the same sort of way it did last Thur...
Thu, Dec 28 2017, 9:27 AM
With yesterday's big rally out of the way (a correction to a correction in the yield curve, as discussed in yesterday's close), the most logical impli...
Wed, Dec 27 2017, 5:44 PM
Last Tuesday was not my favorite kind of day when it comes to discussing reasons for bond market movement. The tax bill was in the process of being pa...
Wed, Dec 27 2017, 9:13 AM
The National Association of Realtors publishes reports for both Pending and Existing Home Sales. The conventional wisdom is that Pending Sales tend t...
Tue, Dec 26 2017, 5:41 PM
Bond markets got off to a seasonally typical start this week with volumes and volatility both virtually nonexistent. There are past instances of vola...
Tue, Dec 26 2017, 9:21 AM
Welcome to the void--the week that bond markets forgot, and/or the week that bond market participants may wish to forget after 3 and a half more days ...
Fri, Dec 22 2017, 5:27 PM
Today created very little--if any--need to think, say, or do things that haven't already been thought, said, or done--at least when it comes to bond t...
Fri, Dec 22 2017, 9:36 AM
If you weren't already noticing that the worst of this week's selling spree was over with yesterday's ground-holding, today's early trading essentia...
Thu, Dec 21 2017, 5:21 PM
There were several economic reports at 8:30am this morning--names that have some track record of moving markets like GDP, Jobless Claims, and the Phil...
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