Thu, Feb 15 2018, 10:10 AM
I've mentioned the comparisons between 2013 and the current selling trend several times recently. Most of those have been in response to journalists ...
Wed, Feb 14 2018, 6:28 PM
Old people who've been endlessly frustrated by the fact that no one seemed to be concerned about inflation for the past 6 or 7 years are finally havin...
Wed, Feb 14 2018, 8:32 AM
CPI has been a big deal since last May. That's when more than a year of higher, more stable Core CPI first began slipping under 2.0%. Bond markets r...
Tue, Feb 13 2018, 4:29 PM
Today was "nice" in the highly charged sense of the word where it's meant to convey a certain acceptability and a certain absence of excellence . ...
Tue, Feb 13 2018, 10:26 AM
A certain reality of the recent rate spike needs to be revisited based on conversations I've had with a few clients. Thankfully, it's pretty simple: ...
Mon, Feb 12 2018, 4:52 PM
Caveat 1: bond yields hit the highest intraday levels in more than 4 years before the open.
Caveat 2: bond yields hit the highest intraday levels...
Mon, Feb 12 2018, 9:41 AM
2018 has seen the most unpleasant start to a new year since 2009 as far as bond markets are concerned. The big sell-off in 2009 is easier to reconci...
Fri, Feb 9 2018, 9:14 PM
I'm Matt, but I'll be frank with you for a moment. I don't like the way this chart looks.
If your mind's eye is anything like mine, A) you ne...
Fri, Feb 9 2018, 9:36 AM
The short answer is "to 10yr yields below 2.66% and ideally below 2.49%." Those are the levels we'd need to see in order to suggest a more substanti...
Thu, Feb 8 2018, 5:42 PM
Everyone likes an intellectual bully, right? Well, not really, but everyone likes the person that knows what's up and isn't shy about articulating fa...
Thu, Feb 8 2018, 9:23 AM
It's too easy and too common for experts and casual observers alike to discuss bond markets through the lens of inflation. It's easy and common bec...
Wed, Feb 7 2018, 4:34 PM
In the past or under different circumstances, a day like yesterday might not have been enough for me to write a headline like "nice while it lasted." ...
Wed, Feb 7 2018, 9:05 AM
In a world where race horses are named after bond market movements, there has been some easy betting in the past two months. The winners circle has b...
Tue, Feb 6 2018, 5:02 PM
Yesterday's massive stock market rout was enough to coax reluctant bond yields to the lowest levels since the end of January. Given that the end of J...
Tue, Feb 6 2018, 8:54 AM
Overnight volume in bond markets is about as high as I've ever seen it . In general, we use a benchmark of 1 million 10yr futures contracts as the b...
Mon, Feb 5 2018, 5:40 PM
Yes, I'm going to call a 13bp gain in 10yr yields an insane rally, because who would have logically conceived of such a thing in the current market? ...
Mon, Feb 5 2018, 9:48 AM
Granted, my commentary is decidedly focused on bond markets--particularly as they impact MBS and the mortgage market. Over the years, I've seen that ...
Fri, Feb 2 2018, 7:53 PM
I have a lot of great thoughts and analysis about today's market movements. Most of those were disseminated via MBS Live throughout the day--especial...
Fri, Feb 2 2018, 8:28 AM
Just in case you haven't witnessed the multiple previous examples of the once and future king of economic data falling on deaf ears (relative to its f...
Thu, Feb 1 2018, 5:08 PM
The first day of a new month always holds opportunities and risks for rates. Investors who were compelled to hold certain positions through yesterd...
Thu, Feb 1 2018, 10:11 AM
The title is a trick question --at least if you've read almost anything else I've written in the recent past. If today is your first time though, we...
Wed, Jan 31 2018, 4:12 PM
Stay skeptical about easy answers in financial news! Here's a tremendous example. Much has been made of the stock market being on the edge of a ma...
Wed, Jan 31 2018, 2:02 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November December indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen a...
Wed, Jan 31 2018, 8:31 AM
Despite a fair amount of focus on last night's State of The Union speech in the news, it was a complete dud in terms of bond market movement. These...
Tue, Jan 30 2018, 5:06 PM
After yesterday saw yields break above the previous ceiling in 10yr yields (2.66-2.67) with gusto, anything other than an equally decisive movement ba...
Tue, Jan 30 2018, 9:35 AM
Bonds enter the 2nd day of the week without any major reprieve in the selling trend. That trend kicked into a higher gear yesterday, prompting us to ...
Mon, Jan 29 2018, 5:26 PM
In a perfect world, massive sell-offs in bond markets would have logical explanations--the sort of tidy cause and effect relationships often seen fo...
Mon, Jan 29 2018, 10:40 AM
"Perfect storm" is an overused term, and there other, more colorful descriptors I'd use to describe the storm that's been battering bond markets for...
Fri, Jan 26 2018, 4:59 PM
Last week, I noted that the current week wasn't likely to see bond yields rise because we'd just had 3 straight weeks of clear moves higher. We don...
Fri, Jan 26 2018, 9:56 AM
Today's chart is complicated at first glance, but I'll walk you through it step by step. I'll also cover it in today's Huddle video for MBS Live me...
Thu, Jan 25 2018, 5:23 PM
There were several exciting lead changes in today's game for bond markets. The early inning were devoted to parsing the European Central Bank's (EC...
Thu, Jan 25 2018, 8:49 AM
Corrections are one of the trading themes we frequently discuss when there is broader momentum in either direction. In its simplest form, a correcti...
Wed, Jan 24 2018, 4:27 PM
Yesterday was nice while it lasted. Against a sea of redness, it stood out like a beautiful green shoreline. Unfortunately, that shoreline turned ...
Wed, Jan 24 2018, 9:56 AM
Today is shaping up to be one of those days where we start off with a large overnight bond market movement followed by a rush of attempted explanatio...
Tue, Jan 23 2018, 4:27 PM
It took 3 consecutive days of pushing into the weakest levels in more than 3 years for bond markets to figure out how to rally by more than a token ...
Tue, Jan 23 2018, 8:49 AM
Perhaps you're already well aware that Haruhiko Kuroda is the head of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) , and a Ben Bernanke of sorts when it comes to bringing...
Mon, Jan 22 2018, 5:31 PM
Bonds ended in the green today, albeit just barely . Normally that wouldn't be a bad thing, but today's example leaves a bit to be desired.
I sho...
Mon, Jan 22 2018, 9:05 AM
Markets closed on Friday with a government shutdown still in limbo. Ostensibly, that meant the reaction in stocks and bonds wouldn't be fully seen un...
Fri, Jan 19 2018, 7:27 PM
Today's sell-off brought 10yr yields to their highest levels since the middle of 2014 (when they were on their way down following the taper tantrum....
Fri, Jan 19 2018, 9:13 AM
Yesterday's recap is a good read if you didn't happen to catch it. Here's a link.
In general, there are 2 things going on with rates right now. ...
Thu, Jan 18 2018, 4:49 PM
Well... at least things are interesting . The winter holidays are always a challenge from an analytical and market-watching standpoint. It seems li...
Thu, Jan 18 2018, 9:37 AM
Is the decades-long bull market in bonds over? I imagine we'll be talking about this sort of thing every time yields spike to multi-month highs and...
Wed, Jan 17 2018, 4:42 PM
Last week's bounce at a ceiling of 2.60% (twice, essentially) was enough for some DEFENSIVE hope. In other words, it introduced the possibility of th...
Wed, Jan 17 2018, 9:07 AM
There's bad news and not-quite-as-bad news. Longer-term bonds (the stuff we care about) are either in a modest, steady, long-term uptrend (in rate)...
Tue, Jan 16 2018, 5:00 PM
Had it not been for a fairly abrupt sell-off in stocks (the first big day of losses in 2018, and the biggest open-to-close sell-off since late August ...
Tue, Jan 16 2018, 9:36 AM
Don't get too excited. Despite a few close calls and false alarms, bonds managed to close below last Tuesday's highs for three days in a row. Now th...
Fri, Jan 12 2018, 7:58 PM
I laughed out loud today--something I rarely do when reading typed words--after MBS Live cornerstone Sung Kim quipped "thank God China is buying today...
Fri, Jan 12 2018, 8:34 AM
A majority of market participants (or their mentors) were steeped in the extraordinary inflation/rate volatility of the late 70's and early 80's. As ...
Thu, Jan 11 2018, 4:50 PM
Yesterday morning's news regarding China potentially buying fewer (or selling) US Treasuries has been a big talking point. While most pundits and eve...
Thu, Jan 11 2018, 9:18 AM
Yesterday, the possibility of China decreasing its purchases of US Treasuries was all anyone could talk about . Amid a sea of voices declaring this ...
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