Tue, Mar 6 2018, 6:59 PM
It may or may not actually be shocking to learn that White House economic advisor Cohn has resigned , but it certainly wasn't a given. Cohn had prev...
Tue, Mar 6 2018, 9:19 AM
If you've ever invested or even thought about investing, you likely have a magic number when it comes to the rate of return that would motivate you to...
Mon, Mar 5 2018, 5:48 PM
Bonds were moderately stronger in the overnight session thanks to European political uncertainty, among other things. One of those "other things" c...
Mon, Mar 5 2018, 9:22 AM
The good news is that bond markets improved--albeit microscopically--during each of the past 3 weeks. That's significant because before that 3-week...
Fri, Mar 2 2018, 7:43 PM
If only it were October! The costume contest at the annual bond trader Halloween bash would be easy to win with that "2.79%" costume in the back of...
Fri, Mar 2 2018, 9:25 AM
If 2018 is a football game for bond markets, this week's trading through yesterday afternoon represented our first touchdown (let's not talk about how...
Thu, Mar 1 2018, 6:14 PM
The title is a play on words, you see? It utilizes the word "tariff," which was the subject of much discussion and market movement today, in designat...
Thu, Mar 1 2018, 9:26 AM
This is currently the best week of the year for bond markets. The same was true of last week in the sense that it was the first time in 2018 that yie...
Wed, Feb 28 2018, 4:15 PM
2.90% or something close to it continues to look like the center of a range of yields that might like to... think about... maybe... potentially... try...
Wed, Feb 28 2018, 8:43 AM
You may have noticed that things have been a bit different recently for rates/bonds. Whereas almost any given day saw a move higher/weaker so far in ...
Tue, Feb 27 2018, 5:09 PM
Way back in 2014, Yellen gave her inaugural semi-annual congressional testimony on March 19th. When asked what the Fed meant by "considerable time" w...
Tue, Feb 27 2018, 10:02 AM
Today's key event will be the fielding of questions by Fed Chair Powell at the semi-annual congressional testimony. Sometimes known as the Humphrey H...
Mon, Feb 26 2018, 6:52 PM
In this morning's Day Ahead, we discussed an hour-by-hour chart of several technical overlays for rates. The thesis was that this most recent rally (...
Mon, Feb 26 2018, 4:33 AM
Today's first chart is really uncanny--well, perhaps if you're some sort of technical analysis nerd, or just some guy named Matt who writes about tech...
Fri, Feb 23 2018, 5:33 PM
Early in the month (Feb 5th), bonds had their best day of the year as they soaked up a mere fraction of the cash that was fleeing from equities market...
Fri, Feb 23 2018, 8:53 AM
In 2010 and 2011, the early phases of the European financial crisis caused movement in US bond markets that puzzled a majority of domestic investors. ...
Thu, Feb 22 2018, 5:25 PM
MBS gained a quarter of a point today and 10yr yields fell more than 3bps despite stock market gains (albeit from yesterday's weak closing levels) a...
Thu, Feb 22 2018, 9:47 AM
There's nothing significant on the econ calendar today, and bonds are starting out by retreating (in a good way) back into the center of the ongoing u...
Wed, Feb 21 2018, 6:29 PM
The Fed released the minutes from its late January meeting today. Markets thought about them for 20 minutes and then tanked. What's up with that?!
...
Wed, Feb 21 2018, 9:39 AM
Today's key events arrive in the afternoon in the form of a 5yr Treasury auction at 1pm and the release of the FOMC Minutes at 2pm. Not to be confus...
Tue, Feb 20 2018, 6:10 PM
Today was a total dud in terms of volume and volatility. That's not all that uncommon on the Tuesday following a 3-day weekend, especially if there a...
Tue, Feb 20 2018, 9:57 AM
Last Friday's Day Ahead was all about positions. Read it HERE, if you haven't done so or need a refresher. It advocated caution with respect to floa...
Fri, Feb 16 2018, 4:14 PM
Tiny pockets of gains have come and gone in the vast sea of red that's dominated 2018 so far. Each pocket has attempted to lure optimists into a "b...
Fri, Feb 16 2018, 10:16 AM
While they're extremely important to institutional investors and analysts, the role of trading positions in the bond market is one of the most easily...
Thu, Feb 15 2018, 4:14 PM
At face value, today was great! Bonds overlooked all of the morning's economic data (no surprise) and made modest gains that were subsequently held...
Thu, Feb 15 2018, 10:10 AM
I've mentioned the comparisons between 2013 and the current selling trend several times recently. Most of those have been in response to journalists ...
Wed, Feb 14 2018, 6:28 PM
Old people who've been endlessly frustrated by the fact that no one seemed to be concerned about inflation for the past 6 or 7 years are finally havin...
Wed, Feb 14 2018, 8:32 AM
CPI has been a big deal since last May. That's when more than a year of higher, more stable Core CPI first began slipping under 2.0%. Bond markets r...
Tue, Feb 13 2018, 4:29 PM
Today was "nice" in the highly charged sense of the word where it's meant to convey a certain acceptability and a certain absence of excellence . ...
Tue, Feb 13 2018, 10:26 AM
A certain reality of the recent rate spike needs to be revisited based on conversations I've had with a few clients. Thankfully, it's pretty simple: ...
Mon, Feb 12 2018, 4:52 PM
Caveat 1: bond yields hit the highest intraday levels in more than 4 years before the open.
Caveat 2: bond yields hit the highest intraday levels...
Mon, Feb 12 2018, 9:41 AM
2018 has seen the most unpleasant start to a new year since 2009 as far as bond markets are concerned. The big sell-off in 2009 is easier to reconci...
Fri, Feb 9 2018, 9:14 PM
I'm Matt, but I'll be frank with you for a moment. I don't like the way this chart looks.
If your mind's eye is anything like mine, A) you ne...
Fri, Feb 9 2018, 9:36 AM
The short answer is "to 10yr yields below 2.66% and ideally below 2.49%." Those are the levels we'd need to see in order to suggest a more substanti...
Thu, Feb 8 2018, 5:42 PM
Everyone likes an intellectual bully, right? Well, not really, but everyone likes the person that knows what's up and isn't shy about articulating fa...
Thu, Feb 8 2018, 9:23 AM
It's too easy and too common for experts and casual observers alike to discuss bond markets through the lens of inflation. It's easy and common bec...
Wed, Feb 7 2018, 4:34 PM
In the past or under different circumstances, a day like yesterday might not have been enough for me to write a headline like "nice while it lasted." ...
Wed, Feb 7 2018, 9:05 AM
In a world where race horses are named after bond market movements, there has been some easy betting in the past two months. The winners circle has b...
Tue, Feb 6 2018, 5:02 PM
Yesterday's massive stock market rout was enough to coax reluctant bond yields to the lowest levels since the end of January. Given that the end of J...
Tue, Feb 6 2018, 8:54 AM
Overnight volume in bond markets is about as high as I've ever seen it . In general, we use a benchmark of 1 million 10yr futures contracts as the b...
Mon, Feb 5 2018, 5:40 PM
Yes, I'm going to call a 13bp gain in 10yr yields an insane rally, because who would have logically conceived of such a thing in the current market? ...
Mon, Feb 5 2018, 9:48 AM
Granted, my commentary is decidedly focused on bond markets--particularly as they impact MBS and the mortgage market. Over the years, I've seen that ...
Fri, Feb 2 2018, 7:53 PM
I have a lot of great thoughts and analysis about today's market movements. Most of those were disseminated via MBS Live throughout the day--especial...
Fri, Feb 2 2018, 8:28 AM
Just in case you haven't witnessed the multiple previous examples of the once and future king of economic data falling on deaf ears (relative to its f...
Thu, Feb 1 2018, 5:08 PM
The first day of a new month always holds opportunities and risks for rates. Investors who were compelled to hold certain positions through yesterd...
Thu, Feb 1 2018, 10:11 AM
The title is a trick question --at least if you've read almost anything else I've written in the recent past. If today is your first time though, we...
Wed, Jan 31 2018, 4:12 PM
Stay skeptical about easy answers in financial news! Here's a tremendous example. Much has been made of the stock market being on the edge of a ma...
Wed, Jan 31 2018, 2:02 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November December indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen a...
Wed, Jan 31 2018, 8:31 AM
Despite a fair amount of focus on last night's State of The Union speech in the news, it was a complete dud in terms of bond market movement. These...
Tue, Jan 30 2018, 5:06 PM
After yesterday saw yields break above the previous ceiling in 10yr yields (2.66-2.67) with gusto, anything other than an equally decisive movement ba...
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