Tue, May 2 2017, 9:28 AM
The relationship between stocks and bonds is difficult to speak about intelligently, unless you're prepared to define it in different ways depending o...
Tue, May 2 2017, 4:17 PM
The trading week has been relatively inconsequential so far. That's the best explanation for today's bond market gains. Sure, there are a few anec...
Mon, May 1 2017, 9:27 AM
It's an action-packed week for global financial markets, with several major motivations to consider. First and foremost, this is the first day of a n...
Fri, Apr 28 2017, 10:31 AM
Bond markets are very much on a fence at the moment with respect to short and intermediate trends. There are a few ways we can measure this fence-sit...
Fri, Apr 28 2017, 7:18 PM
Bond markets began the day in slightly weaker territory, with Treasuries following European yields higher in the overnight session. Domestic hours br...
Thu, Apr 27 2017, 9:06 AM
Another day, another chance for bond markets to assess whether they should re-enter the previous 2017 range (or "post-election" range). This is marke...
Thu, Apr 27 2017, 6:20 PM
Bond markets have a question. Will we or won't we be heading back into the sideways, post-election rate range? for top tier mortgage rates, the ra...
Wed, Apr 26 2017, 9:48 AM
The order of the day and week for domestic bond markets has been and will continue to be the break out from the recently friendly trend toward lower r...
Wed, Apr 26 2017, 5:14 PM
Today's main event was the release of the Trump administration's new tax plan. Markets didn't go overboard in their expectations of major revelatio...
Tue, Apr 25 2017, 9:14 AM
For the past 5+ months, any discussion of "the gap" among bond traders could have only referred to the 2.15-2.17 gap created on Veterans Day weekend...
Tue, Apr 25 2017, 4:56 PM
With a 2nd day of fairly strong selling pressure in bond markets, the recent trend toward lower rates has been forcefully called into question. ...
Mon, Apr 24 2017, 9:09 AM
For bond markets, most of 2017 has been dominated by the "post-election range" (or "the 2017 range," if you prefer) consisting of 10yr yields betwee...
Mon, Apr 24 2017, 5:33 PM
Heading into the French election at the end of last week, we knew that Le Pen (the candidate who likely would have helped the bond rally continue) pro...
Fri, Apr 21 2017, 9:11 AM
It remains to be seen whether all the hype is justified, but for whatever reason, markets are transfixed by this weekend's French election. Several r...
Fri, Apr 21 2017, 5:23 PM
Today was shaping up to be very slow and boring, with bond markets making some inconsequential gains as traders shed risk ahead of this weekend's Fren...
Thu, Apr 20 2017, 9:11 AM
"Consolidation" has a bit of a different connotation when it comes to financial markets (as opposed to the dictionary definition of "the process of ma...
Thu, Apr 20 2017, 5:30 PM
Europe has been the driving force for US bond markets over the past 2 days. Perhaps this will continue to be the case or perhaps it's simply due to...
Wed, Apr 19 2017, 8:49 AM
When your career is directly impacted by bond market trends, and when you watch those trends on a nitty gritty, intraday level, one of the most insidi...
Wed, Apr 19 2017, 4:47 PM
There are a lot of pieces on the board at the moment for the bond market rally that's been intact since mid-March. That rally began with a friendli...
Tue, Apr 18 2017, 9:25 AM
While there is more economic data on the calendar today, bond markets continue to look elsewhere for inspiration. Geopolitical risks, fiscal policy, ...
Tue, Apr 18 2017, 5:18 PM
One of these days we may be forced to conclude that bonds simply WANT to be rallying , regardless of the justification. One day it's Syria. The nex...
Mon, Apr 17 2017, 9:09 AM
On Good Friday (when markets were closed), both Retail Sales and the Consumer Price Index came out weaker than expected. Of particular interest i...
Mon, Apr 17 2017, 4:57 PM
Today was destined to be a lower-volume session simply because it's the Monday after Good Friday. That means many US market participants are still ou...
Thu, Apr 13 2017, 8:44 AM
This holiday-shortened 3.5-day trading week has quickly become a brave new world for bond markets. Actually, it might be better characterized as a ...
Thu, Apr 13 2017, 4:07 PM
Heading into Good Friday weekend, it's not uncommon for bond markets to retrace whatever the trend happens to be earlier in the week. In other words,...
Wed, Apr 12 2017, 9:07 AM
Yesterday, it became increasingly clear in the middle of the trading session that bond markets were responding to the "risk-off" trading motivations...
Wed, Apr 12 2017, 6:47 PM
Friday was exciting for a short while. Following the weaker-than-expected NFP, 10yr yields briefly broke below 2.27--emphasis on "brief." Friday qui...
Tue, Apr 11 2017, 9:01 AM
(NOTE: If you're subscribed to receive MBS Commentary emails, you will have received last Friday's Recap in error this morning. Sorry for the confusi...
Tue, Apr 11 2017, 8:14 AM
As the headline suggests, NFP (the "nonfarm payrolls" component of the big jobs report) was much weaker than expected today (98k vs 180k forecast). O...
Mon, Apr 10 2017, 8:58 AM
The 2nd week of April begins with bonds threatening to embark on another bounce inside the post-election trading range (10yr yields from 2.30-2.64, ...
Mon, Apr 10 2017, 5:32 PM
On a positive note, bonds were slightly stronger today and yields held just barely below a technical level that has been more of floor than a ceilin...
Fri, Apr 7 2017, 8:22 AM
Cue the "all eyes" headlines that seem to pop up on NFP day, a la "All Eyes on NFP." Well, this certainly used to be true. It will probably be tru...
Thu, Apr 6 2017, 9:17 AM
The day begins with a similar pattern shaping up to that seen in late March when the healthcare bill drama was highest. Said drama translated to th...
Thu, Apr 6 2017, 5:16 PM
Bonds continue grinding it out in an exceptionally horizontal sort of direction! If you saw the best and the worst of trading levels on Monday, you'v...
Wed, Apr 5 2017, 8:51 AM
Heading into the end of March, markets were generally preoccupied with the healthcare drama in congress and bond yields were generally consolidating i...
Wed, Apr 5 2017, 4:40 PM
Coming into today, we had two key options as far as potential market movers were concerned: economic data and the Fed Minutes. On the data front, ADP...
Tue, Apr 4 2017, 8:55 AM
Yesterday's bond market activity suggested that traders definitely had some sort of agenda that went beyond a mere punching of the clock. Even with C...
Tue, Apr 4 2017, 5:40 PM
Coming off of yesterday's excellent performance, today's bond market selling-spree felt jarring --probably more jarring than it actually was. Right ...
Mon, Apr 3 2017, 9:26 AM
Remember March 15th's Fed Announcement? That was the one where the entire free world was utterly and completely convinced that the Fed would hike s...
Mon, Apr 3 2017, 5:37 PM
From an analytical standpoint, today's trading session was not well-behaved or easy to assess (I saw several iterations of "no one has any idea what...
Fri, Mar 31 2017, 9:07 AM
While there are several economic reports that have market-moving power today, the bigger issue for bond markets may be the technical battle that's b...
Fri, Mar 31 2017, 4:56 PM
Month/Quarter-end bond buying was nowhere to be seen until today. It can provide a mild but determined positive trend in bond markets that transcends...
Thu, Mar 30 2017, 9:32 AM
With 10yr yields having made it close to 2017's lower range in the most recent rally, the burden of proof is on bond bulls to come up with j ustificat...
Thu, Mar 30 2017, 6:02 PM
For all of the apparent drama and volatility experienced during the past 2 weeks, it's easy to overlook just how narrow the range has been. There's ...
Wed, Mar 29 2017, 8:46 AM
We characterized yesterday's bond market weakness as a simple and somewhat logical correction. The initial move was Monday morning's rally that was...
Wed, Mar 29 2017, 5:59 PM
There have been two back-to-back "unwind" trades in bond markets. The stage was set by Monday morning's rally which was in response to an absence o...
Tue, Mar 28 2017, 8:47 AM
Today brings the week's first major economic data with 10am Consumer Confidence serving as the headliner. Before that, we'll get an update on home ...
Tue, Mar 28 2017, 7:51 PM
Just when you thought you'd seen the last of the healthcare bill drama , it comes roaring back. Well, at least it felt like a roar. In retrospect, ...
Mon, Mar 27 2017, 10:08 AM
The biggest questions for Monday comes from financial markets and is directed towards politicians in Washington. Are we done obsessing over the healt...
Mon, Mar 27 2017, 7:07 PM
Today could have gone two ways. We could have come to find out that Friday's "delay" in the vote on the healthcare bill was an actual delay, or we ...
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