Fri, May 19 2017, 9:11 AM
If bonds hadn't undergone their highest volume move of the year on Wednesday and Thursday, we would have expected this week to be relatively dead in...
Thu, May 18 2017, 9:13 AM
I can't emphasize this enough: when bond markets have a day like they had yesterday, it's often followed shortly thereafter by a correction. In the c...
Thu, May 18 2017, 7:03 PM
It could have been a lot worse! That's a great theme for today's bond market action. Yesterday was the kind of rally where traders buy bonds first a...
Wed, May 17 2017, 9:01 AM
I hate politics and talking about political issues with anyone, ever, unless they have a clear and specific impact on bond markets. That was the case...
Wed, May 17 2017, 5:32 PM
Today will either go down as a game-changing rally in the course of bond traders' decision making process for 2017, or as an epic head-fake that p...
Tue, May 16 2017, 9:06 AM
I'll be one of the first to tell you that traditional concept of stock prices moving in the same direction in bond yields breaks down when viewing lon...
Tue, May 16 2017, 8:37 PM
The week began in slow fashion yesterday both in terms of volume and volatility. That largely remained the case in the bigger picture today, despite...
Mon, May 15 2017, 9:22 AM
Last Friday represented a potential shift in the recent trend toward higher rates that began in mid-April. 10yr yields (which we track as the best ...
Mon, May 15 2017, 6:55 PM
Last week ended with the hope that rates were breaking below the uptrend that had been in place since mid-April. Certainly, if we had to judge that...
Fri, May 12 2017, 9:21 AM
It's going to be a chart-focused commentary today, because frankly, there's not much to say with words. The bottom line is that this morning's econom...
Fri, May 12 2017, 6:24 PM
Bonds were losing ground clearly and convincingly this week, until this morning's economic data came along. To be fair , we might say that bonds beg...
Thu, May 11 2017, 9:36 AM
You've no doubt run across the phrase "the beatings will continue until morale improves." That's not too far from being an apt assessment of an uptre...
Thu, May 11 2017, 6:41 PM
To be fair to bond markets, they might not have needed much help to hold their ground today had it not been for the stronger economic data in the morn...
Wed, May 10 2017, 9:43 AM
Any time rates have been trending decidedly higher (as they have been since mid-April), every day of gains has the potential to become the turning po...
Wed, May 10 2017, 6:46 PM
Bond markets were having a decent enough day during the morning hours. Stocks and European markets were weaker, dragging bond yields lower in a clas...
Tue, May 9 2017, 9:46 AM
Let me take you back--but not necessarily "way back"--to March 2017. Geopolitical risks weren't on the radar yet (no Syria air strike, North Korea th...
Tue, May 9 2017, 6:23 PM
Let's get the caveats out of the way. Bond markets ended the day in slightly weaker territory, and the broader trend remains toward higher yields. M...
Mon, May 8 2017, 9:23 AM
The economic and event calendar is fairly light this week, especially on the first few days. The importance and pace of potential market movers incre...
Mon, May 8 2017, 6:54 PM
We've been tracking an uptrend in yields since they bottomed out in mid April. There was some hope that we would see a firmer ceiling take shape head...
Fri, May 5 2017, 8:24 AM
Today's chart is essentially the same chart we examined yesterday, but this time the only trendlines are those surrounding the most recent trend. The...
Fri, May 5 2017, 7:12 PM
Today's NFP report certainly could have been damaging for bond markets if it contained a significant revision to last month's low 98k headline. It ...
Thu, May 4 2017, 9:11 AM
I frequently use the lead-off analogy to characterize financial markets' propensity to start drifting in the direction of their next most-desired di...
Thu, May 4 2017, 7:37 PM
This morning's Day Ahead laid out a case for bonds taking a "lead-off" ahead of tomorrow's NFP data. It's not necessarily about NFP (the nonfarm pa...
Wed, May 3 2017, 8:57 AM
Bond markets are beginning the day in slightly weaker territory after as-expected ADP Employment data and the Treasury Department commented on the p...
Wed, May 3 2017, 5:12 PM
Today's Fed announcement turned out to be a dud . It's getting headline treatment here based solely on street cred. In and of itself, it could scar...
Wed, May 3 2017, 2:02 PM
(Additions underlined, deletions struck through)
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in February March indicates tha...
Tue, May 2 2017, 9:28 AM
The relationship between stocks and bonds is difficult to speak about intelligently, unless you're prepared to define it in different ways depending o...
Tue, May 2 2017, 4:17 PM
The trading week has been relatively inconsequential so far. That's the best explanation for today's bond market gains. Sure, there are a few anec...
Mon, May 1 2017, 9:27 AM
It's an action-packed week for global financial markets, with several major motivations to consider. First and foremost, this is the first day of a n...
Fri, Apr 28 2017, 10:31 AM
Bond markets are very much on a fence at the moment with respect to short and intermediate trends. There are a few ways we can measure this fence-sit...
Fri, Apr 28 2017, 7:18 PM
Bond markets began the day in slightly weaker territory, with Treasuries following European yields higher in the overnight session. Domestic hours br...
Thu, Apr 27 2017, 9:06 AM
Another day, another chance for bond markets to assess whether they should re-enter the previous 2017 range (or "post-election" range). This is marke...
Thu, Apr 27 2017, 6:20 PM
Bond markets have a question. Will we or won't we be heading back into the sideways, post-election rate range? for top tier mortgage rates, the ra...
Wed, Apr 26 2017, 9:48 AM
The order of the day and week for domestic bond markets has been and will continue to be the break out from the recently friendly trend toward lower r...
Wed, Apr 26 2017, 5:14 PM
Today's main event was the release of the Trump administration's new tax plan. Markets didn't go overboard in their expectations of major revelatio...
Tue, Apr 25 2017, 9:14 AM
For the past 5+ months, any discussion of "the gap" among bond traders could have only referred to the 2.15-2.17 gap created on Veterans Day weekend...
Tue, Apr 25 2017, 4:56 PM
With a 2nd day of fairly strong selling pressure in bond markets, the recent trend toward lower rates has been forcefully called into question. ...
Mon, Apr 24 2017, 9:09 AM
For bond markets, most of 2017 has been dominated by the "post-election range" (or "the 2017 range," if you prefer) consisting of 10yr yields betwee...
Mon, Apr 24 2017, 5:33 PM
Heading into the French election at the end of last week, we knew that Le Pen (the candidate who likely would have helped the bond rally continue) pro...
Fri, Apr 21 2017, 9:11 AM
It remains to be seen whether all the hype is justified, but for whatever reason, markets are transfixed by this weekend's French election. Several r...
Fri, Apr 21 2017, 5:23 PM
Today was shaping up to be very slow and boring, with bond markets making some inconsequential gains as traders shed risk ahead of this weekend's Fren...
Thu, Apr 20 2017, 9:11 AM
"Consolidation" has a bit of a different connotation when it comes to financial markets (as opposed to the dictionary definition of "the process of ma...
Thu, Apr 20 2017, 5:30 PM
Europe has been the driving force for US bond markets over the past 2 days. Perhaps this will continue to be the case or perhaps it's simply due to...
Wed, Apr 19 2017, 8:49 AM
When your career is directly impacted by bond market trends, and when you watch those trends on a nitty gritty, intraday level, one of the most insidi...
Wed, Apr 19 2017, 4:47 PM
There are a lot of pieces on the board at the moment for the bond market rally that's been intact since mid-March. That rally began with a friendli...
Tue, Apr 18 2017, 9:25 AM
While there is more economic data on the calendar today, bond markets continue to look elsewhere for inspiration. Geopolitical risks, fiscal policy, ...
Tue, Apr 18 2017, 5:18 PM
One of these days we may be forced to conclude that bonds simply WANT to be rallying , regardless of the justification. One day it's Syria. The nex...
Mon, Apr 17 2017, 9:09 AM
On Good Friday (when markets were closed), both Retail Sales and the Consumer Price Index came out weaker than expected. Of particular interest i...
Mon, Apr 17 2017, 4:57 PM
Today was destined to be a lower-volume session simply because it's the Monday after Good Friday. That means many US market participants are still ou...
Thu, Apr 13 2017, 8:44 AM
This holiday-shortened 3.5-day trading week has quickly become a brave new world for bond markets. Actually, it might be better characterized as a ...
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