Thu, Sep 21 2017, 4:40 PM
In a sick way, it would have been easier to see additional weakness in bond markets today. At least that would have jived with past precedent of "c...
Thu, Sep 21 2017, 9:43 AM
Remember when the Grinch's heart grew 3 sizes? No, I mean, do you really remember watching that movie for the first time and the feeling you had wh...
Wed, Sep 20 2017, 5:28 PM
Today's Fed announcement wasn't appreciably different than most economists, traders, and armchair analysts expected. They confirmed the inception o...
Wed, Sep 20 2017, 2:04 PM
(Additions underlined, deletions struck through)
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June July indicates that the...
Wed, Sep 20 2017, 8:33 AM
Much like an actor can get lost in a role and take things a bit too far, bond markets played the part of "a market undergoing a correction" a little ...
Tue, Sep 19 2017, 5:33 PM
While MBS managed to remain 1 tick in positive territory today, Treasury yields were higher on the day and the overall mood in bond markets managed ...
Tue, Sep 19 2017, 8:54 AM
Ahoy ye salty dogs sailing the high seas of the mortgage world. Another year has come and gone without any grand preparations for Talk Like a Pirate ...
Mon, Sep 18 2017, 4:49 PM
Bonds got off to a weaker start on this Fed week, and there weren't any convenient scapegoats in sight. That said, there were a few caveats. Most ...
Mon, Sep 18 2017, 9:04 AM
Wednesday's Fed Announcement is one of the best-telegraphed in Fed history. Multiple speakers--including Yellen herself--have all but promised that t...
Fri, Sep 15 2017, 5:09 PM
Between the overnight session and domestic trading hours, the following voices tried to get inside the head of bond markets:
A North Korean miss...
Fri, Sep 15 2017, 9:13 AM
Granted, the headline of today's commentary will be lost on those who aren't reasonably well-versed in Monty Python, but it was worth the risk to ente...
Thu, Sep 14 2017, 5:10 PM
We've been steadfast in characterizing this week's sell-off as a "correction" to the strong rally that preceded it. One might have argued that the ri...
Thu, Sep 14 2017, 8:28 AM
Yesterday morning's chart is just as germane for today, perhaps more so. It shows how bonds have reacted to CPI data over the past few months. Altho...
Wed, Sep 13 2017, 4:15 PM
Treasury yields hit their highest levels in exactly 3 weeks today with little apparent motivation. Indeed, volumes remained lower than recent average...
Wed, Sep 13 2017, 8:53 AM
Today's only relevant economic data is the Producer Price Index (PPI)--an inflation metric at the wholesale level. Although inflation is back in the...
Tue, Sep 12 2017, 4:42 PM
Today could be viewed at least 2 ways if you're a fan of low rates. On one hand, you might despair to see that rates are continuing higher after bo...
Tue, Sep 12 2017, 8:53 AM
Yesterday was the warning shot and today could see confirmation that bonds are indeed bouncing. Actually, it's probably more appropriate to view ...
Mon, Sep 11 2017, 5:22 PM
We'd been in the throes of a risk-related rally for several weeks that crescendoed last week on a combination of North Korea and natural disasters. ...
Mon, Sep 11 2017, 8:50 AM
Bond markets are beginning the week in a defensive stance after insurance analysts report expected Irma-related losses to be lower than originally f...
Fri, Sep 8 2017, 5:26 PM
With an absence of significant economic events and the storm of the century bearing down on the Southeast, trading activity was understandably a bit...
Fri, Sep 8 2017, 9:22 AM
Bonds have been on a tear recently , easily breaking to the lowest yields of the year this week after some exploratory attempts last week. Geopoliti...
Thu, Sep 7 2017, 4:31 PM
2 months ago, today's European Central Bank announcement looked like it would be a big deal insofar as it would be the venue for the ECB's first off...
Thu, Sep 7 2017, 8:17 AM
Ask me two months (or even a month ago) and I would have placed today above almost any other in terms of importance to the overall outlook. The rea...
Wed, Sep 6 2017, 4:56 PM
Bond markets began the day holding impressively sideways. Why impressive? Because there was a small laundry list of potential reasons for weakness...
Wed, Sep 6 2017, 9:16 AM
Until the onset of brinksmanship with North Korea and the appearance of big, back-to-back Hurricanes, financial markets were more focused on long-term...
Tue, Sep 5 2017, 5:01 PM
Bonds rallied significantly today on a confluence of news. Disparate events and headlines hit markets at just the right time and in just the right ...
Tue, Sep 5 2017, 9:05 AM
Global financial markets moved away from risk to start the holiday-shortened week as more North Korean missile drama made the news over the weekend....
Fri, Sep 1 2017, 6:06 PM
We talk a lot about participation among traders dropping off at mid-day when European markets close, but today's version turned bond markets into a ve...
Fri, Sep 1 2017, 8:30 AM
I wish Who Wants to be a Millionaire was still a popular show. Its catchphrases and terminology work really well with bond market psychology. Often ...
Thu, Aug 31 2017, 5:32 PM
Without month-end trading needs and in the absence of one of the most relevant inflation reports, today may well have been a typically slow summerti...
Thu, Aug 31 2017, 8:34 AM
This week has admittedly been the same sort of summertime trading week that we've seen for most of July and August--perhaps even more so . By that I...
Wed, Aug 30 2017, 5:50 PM
Bond markets had a reasonably good day, all things considered. The caveat is that we shouldn't read much of anything into today's trading because i...
Wed, Aug 30 2017, 10:09 AM
We've seen it before and we'll likely see it again. Bond markets (and most other markets, for that matter) respond quickly to some unexpected headlin...
Tue, Aug 29 2017, 6:28 PM
It's all well and good to highlight North Korea's missile launch as the dominant market mover for the day. It absolutely was. But it takes a little ...
Tue, Aug 29 2017, 9:48 AM
Amid the recent slow summertime trading, there are only a few things that stand a chance of catching the market's collective eye. Somewhere near the ...
Mon, Aug 28 2017, 7:25 PM
It's not normal for a 5yr Treasury auction to cause the biggest move in any given day for bond markets. That's an honor typically reserved for 10yr...
Mon, Aug 28 2017, 9:35 AM
Sometimes, events are such that the typical summertime trading patterns aren't easily seen in terms of trading ranges and volatility. For instance, i...
Fri, Aug 25 2017, 5:54 PM
Today's Jackson Hole symposium couldn't have been any more anticlimactic even if this year's topic were "How to Deliver Anticlimactic Speeches on Mone...
Fri, Aug 25 2017, 9:58 AM
I've waited until the day itself to abbreviate the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium with the beloved "J-Hole." Pretty impressive considering how much fun...
Thu, Aug 24 2017, 4:50 PM
Bond markets have been generally rallying since early July. The apparent inspiration for that rally was the sell-off that preceded it. That weakne...
Thu, Aug 24 2017, 9:22 AM
Most of my analysis in July and August focused on the positive technical boundary (aka "floor") at 2.21-2.22. As of yesterday, that floor is increasi...
Wed, Aug 23 2017, 5:26 PM
If there were a magical ratio comparing the overall movement in bond markets to the relevance of the factors motivating the movement, it would be off...
Wed, Aug 23 2017, 9:25 AM
Coincidentally, yesterday's Day Ahead talked about "pivot points." Now today, we see a prime example of a pivot point in action. Although I labele...
Tue, Aug 22 2017, 4:23 PM
I'm not shy about dismissing the conventional wisdom of bond yields and stock prices following each other. We're talking about some iteration of th...
Tue, Aug 22 2017, 10:32 AM
We have a dedicated primer on pivot points here . But let's look at a timely example with the pivot points we've been tracking in recent weeks. Act...
Mon, Aug 21 2017, 4:47 PM
It's a good thing financial media outlets aren't too shy about covering topics outside the financial sphere because without the eclipse, there would h...
Mon, Aug 21 2017, 9:56 AM
Welcome! Here is a safe haven from all of the eclipse talk. It won't be mentioned at all in this article. Never mind that it's in the title and the...
Fri, Aug 18 2017, 8:20 PM
In the Day Ahead, we discussed bond traders' probable goals regarding keeping things as calm as possible. This depended on unexpected headlines and m...
Fri, Aug 18 2017, 7:34 AM
A maritime analogy for bond trading in the Summertime...
In the summer months especially, there's a boat-friendly baseline weather pattern offshore...
Thu, Aug 17 2017, 6:01 PM
What do you get when bond markets embark on a snowball rally due to headlines concerning Trump's Economic Advisor Gary Cohn? A delicious "Snow Cohn,"...
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